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View Full Version : Predictions for tomorrow's Texas primary..




libertybrewcity
03-01-2010, 04:21 PM
What are YOUR predictions?!

I am going with a Medina second place finish in front of KBH by only a few thousand votes.

Imperial
03-01-2010, 04:28 PM
Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

tmosley
03-01-2010, 04:39 PM
Debra wins in a landslide, obviously. I'm thinking 55-60%, judging from the turnout.

Why else would they have stopped releasing poll numbers?

Drudge has helped us more than Beck ever could have hurt us.

AmericasLastHope
03-01-2010, 04:41 PM
Why else would they have stopped releasing poll numbers?

That's what I was thinking. Is that normal? Don't they always keep releasing polls up until (and during) election day? :confused:

RonPaulFanInGA
03-01-2010, 04:44 PM
Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

Sounds about what I'd surmise.

Imperial
03-01-2010, 04:45 PM
That's what I was thinking. Is that normal? Don't they always keep releasing polls up until (and during) election day? :confused:

This is just a primary election... so there won't be as many polls released. If it were really contentious I think you would see more internal polling results showing whoever commissioned the poll in the lead, particularly KBH. But that isn't happening.

libertybrewcity
03-01-2010, 05:13 PM
Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

don't you think dems, independents, new voters, and early voters will play a significant role?

Imperial
03-01-2010, 05:28 PM
don't you think dems, independents, new voters, and early voters will play a significant role?

Yes I do, which is why I also gave Medina a 3 point edge over the PPP poll. Plus the bump I gave her is even more significant when you have many people who will enter the polls thinking they suddenly can't waste their vote when Perry or Hutchison could win and pull the lever for a lesser evil.

So the bump I gave Medina is fairly significant.

You also have to remember not all the Tea Partiers, who are also a really high-turnout group, will not ALL be Medina. True, we will have more support from them than from many other groups, but I think enough will have been turned off by the 9/11 affair or go for wasted vote syndrome to not end up voting for Medina but Perry or Hutchison.

skilt
03-01-2010, 06:22 PM
perry 41
KBH26
DB23
She lost steam w/ the GB fiasco. In my heart I want to believe, but in my reality I know it won't happen, this time. We're gonna get them eventually, this race is one more step up

rp08orbust
03-01-2010, 06:26 PM
perry 41
KBH26
DB23
She lost steam w/ the GB fiasco. In my heart I want to believe, but in my reality I know it won't happen, this time. We're gonna get them eventually, this race is one more step up

I assume you meant Perry 51

low preference guy
03-01-2010, 06:26 PM
Perry 48
Medina 24,0
KBH 23,9

johnrocks
03-01-2010, 06:34 PM
If Debra hits over 20%, I'll be pleased and will consider it a big step for us all, besides that, I don't have a clue.

rp08orbust
03-01-2010, 06:37 PM
The best case scenario I can realistically imagine is

Perry 49.9
Medina 25.1
KBH 25.0

This would mean that PPP underestimated Medina's support by a whole 5 points, which would be pretty remarkable considering their accuracy everywhere else, including in the volatile Scott Brown race.

american.swan
03-01-2010, 06:41 PM
If Debra hits over 20%, I'll be pleased and will consider it a big step for us all, besides that, I don't have a clue.

+1

skilt
03-01-2010, 06:43 PM
There's other lesser candidates in the race and write ins that gobble up the other 5 to 10 percent

TastyWheat
03-01-2010, 06:49 PM
Debra just mentioned (at her online townhall) there were over 491,000 early votes in this primary. There were only about 300,000 early votes in 2008 (a presidential primary). Wow!

american.swan
03-01-2010, 06:53 PM
I'd like to see the Perry Election Cracking Committee's computers give all of Perry's votes to Medina by mistake and see how Perry explains his way out of it.

"Perry you were winning in the polls with 45% of the vote. Can you explain why you got 10% of the vote?"

BuddyRey
03-01-2010, 07:10 PM
Medina will win, or at least end up in a runoff with Perry. 'Nuff said! ;-)

rprprs
03-01-2010, 07:25 PM
I will only predict that Perry will not get the 50% he needs to win outright.
Beyond that, we shall see...:D

GO DEBRA!!!

CoreyBowen999
03-01-2010, 07:30 PM
Being from Texas I want to believe my fellow Texans will make the right decisionish. :P

Perry- 48.2%
Medina- 26.3%
KBH- 25.5%

TexFootballMom
03-01-2010, 07:44 PM
Medina will win.

Original_Intent
03-01-2010, 07:49 PM
Are we talking actual results or what we are told the results are?

MikeStanart
03-01-2010, 08:14 PM
My Predictions, I hope Medina's is much higher though!

Perry 44%
Medina 31 %
Hutchison 25%

Koz
03-01-2010, 08:26 PM
Perry 52%
KBH 33%
Medina 15%

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think the Beck incident really hurt her. I really, really hope I'm eating my words tomorrow night.

jclay2
03-01-2010, 08:31 PM
Perry 52%
KBH 33%
Medina 15%

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think the Beck incident really hurt her. I really, really hope I'm eating my words tomorrow night.

Don't underestimate the power of a liberty to attract a strong and committed voter base. Virtually all who are in favor of medina will be out to vote. This will not be the case with kbh or slick rick.

unconsious767
03-01-2010, 08:37 PM
hair 41
medina 35
bailout 24

bruce leeroy
03-01-2010, 08:40 PM
Don't underestimate the power of a liberty to attract a strong and committed voter base. Virtually all who are in favor of medina will be out to vote. This will not be the case with kbh or slick rick.


true
plus up here in the metroplex, the weather is a bit nasty, so homefully perry's vidal-sassoon posse will stay away from the polls

Koz
03-01-2010, 08:41 PM
Don't underestimate the power of a liberty to attract a strong and committed voter base. Virtually all who are in favor of medina will be out to vote. This will not be the case with kbh or slick rick.

I hope so.

lynnf
03-01-2010, 08:55 PM
Are we talking actual results or what we are told the results are?

actual, of course, what we are told can change; actual results can never change.

lynn

Lmata
03-01-2010, 08:55 PM
Medina will be in the runoff.

RM918
03-01-2010, 09:18 PM
don't you think dems, independents, new voters, and early voters will play a significant role?

I heard the same thing during Paul's '08 runs. I don't hold much stock in that theory anymore.

driller80545
03-01-2010, 09:24 PM
I heard the same thing during Paul's '08 runs. I don't hold much stock in that theory anymore.

yep

Humblecowboy
03-01-2010, 09:30 PM
There was heavy showing in the early votes and I don't think it was to support Perry or Hutchison. Oh Lord for this Medina we are about to elect, we are truly thankful, AMEN

Son of Detroit
03-01-2010, 09:34 PM
Some people here are going to be thoroughly disappointed.

As much as I would love for Medina to get into the runoff, I just don't see it happening.

Nate-ForLiberty
03-01-2010, 09:36 PM
I think Medina will receive the majority of the votes, and I think she'll lose anyway.

"They" have got election fraud down to a science.

"Go back to bed America. You're government has everything under control."

jmdrake
03-01-2010, 09:50 PM
I heard the same thing during Paul's '08 runs. I don't hold much stock in that theory anymore.

The difference then was that Obama sucked up most of the "angry at the establishment" vote that should have gone to Paul. In this case there seems to be a lot less interest overall in the democratic nomination. We may do better in 2012 for this same reason assuming Obama runs unopposed in the primary.

That said, Medina has an uphill battle.

skilt
03-01-2010, 10:09 PM
Medina will be in the runoff.

As much as I would love this, we're not there yet as a movement. We are swimming up stream against 100 years of "conservative" group think. This is a 10 to 20 year battle. We are taking great steps - but we're not over the hump. I will send a case of fine wine if Medina makes the runoff. Just pm me. It will be the best purchase I've made in a long time.

bruce leeroy
03-01-2010, 10:15 PM
what suprises me is the amount of hate that medina has gotten from people that I know online who would never vote in a repub primary anyway.
maybe they think that she is more of a threat in the general than perry or hutch

WorldonaString
03-01-2010, 10:19 PM
"The power of life and death rests in the tip of the tongue."

Kokesh and RJ seem to think Medina is worth campaigning their hearts out for. Why don't we fill a thread with activist phone banking (via callforkokesh.com) for Medina and do what we can to make the future we want?

I logged on over here expecting people hyped and telling stories of the thousands of calls being made in these last hours....

What to do:

1. Sign up at www.callforkokesh.com
2. Login
3. Select the Medina Call list
4. Start making phone calls
5. Forward this to all of your freedom loving friends across the country who are watching this race!
*If you have any problems at all, please email contact@medinafortexas.com

PS they have scripts to choose from if you're nervous or not sure how best to say whats on your heart. Lets make this happen!

TexFootballMom
03-01-2010, 10:26 PM
"The power of life and death rests in the tip of the tongue."

Kokesh and RJ seem to think Medina is worth campaigning their hearts out for. Why don't we fill a thread with activist phone banking (via callforkokesh.com) for Medina and do what we can to make the future we want?

I logged on over here expecting people hyped and telling stories of the thousands of calls being made in these last hours....

What to do:

1. Sign up at www.callforkokesh.com
2. Login
3. Select the Medina Call list
4. Start making phone calls
5. Forward this to all of your freedom loving friends across the country who are watching this race!
*If you have any problems at all, please email contact@medinafortexas.com

PS they have scripts to choose from if you're nervous or not sure how best to say whats on your heart. Lets make this happen!



Did so today. (Calling)

Then...........if you are inclined.................PRAY, PRAY PRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

She is going to Win!

paulitics
03-01-2010, 10:38 PM
12%

HenryKnoxFineBooks
03-01-2010, 11:16 PM
16%, which aint bad

Number19
03-01-2010, 11:56 PM
The Indi vote, the new vote and the cross-over vote go very heavily to Medina. The Mexican vote goes slightly to Medina, The old time Republicans go heavily to Perry,

But the overall net result, with double normal turnout, most of whom will be supporting Debra, the final count will come in : Medina 46%, Perry 29%, and KBH 25%. Medina needs only 4% in the runoff and wins going away.

TXcarlosTX
03-02-2010, 12:11 AM
The Indi vote, the new vote and the cross-over vote go very heavily to Medina. The Mexican vote goes slightly to Medina, The old time Republicans go heavily to Perry,

But the overall net result, with double normal turnout, most of whom will be supporting Debra, the final count will come in : Medina 46%, Perry 29%, and KBH 25%. Medina needs only 4% in the runoff and wins going away.


your the first to break it down like im thinking. its funny how many mexican people think she is hispanic. ha

Medina 38%
Perry 32%
KBH 27%
Other 3%

bruce leeroy
03-02-2010, 12:19 AM
your the first to break it down like im thinking. its funny how many mexican people think she is hispanic. ha

Medina 38%
Perry 32%
KBH 27%
Other 3%


Is she married to a mex-american dude?
as a lifelong Texan, Ive met many guys named alverez, ayala, martinez etc who are white(blonde, redhead with freckles, etc) and some guys named brown, smith, or o'grady who were conspicously mezisto(black hair, brown skin, larger head to body ratio, etc)

Suzu
03-02-2010, 01:51 AM
I want her to win but don't hold out much hope of it happening, simply because it seems to me that 90%+ of Americans are so bleeding stupid, and yes that includes Texans who elected George Bush and Rick Perry in the first place.

On the other hand, it's a bad year to be an incumbent, so maybe we'll get a pleasant surprise. If she ends up in a runoff she'll crush her opponent in a final debate.

Ricky201
03-02-2010, 02:36 AM
Is she married to a mex-american dude?
as a lifelong Texan, Ive met many guys named alverez, ayala, martinez etc who are white(blonde, redhead with freckles, etc) and some guys named brown, smith, or o'grady who were conspicously mezisto(black hair, brown skin, larger head to body ratio, etc)

Yes, she's married to a TexMex as she puts it.

54% - Perry
25% - KBH
21% - Medina

Medina won't win this, but I think she'll play a very important role in the liberty movement in the future. She'll a bit more polished next time around with some experience under her belt.

JohnG
03-02-2010, 04:40 AM
If not medina... I sort of hope for KBH, just to get her out of the senate. That will open up a new opportunity for Medina (ie a senate run). Seriously, I don't know who I hope win if not Medina, I just hope Medina won't retire from politics after a possible defeat.

Johnnybags
03-02-2010, 06:40 AM
Perry 36%
Medina/Hutchison - court battle.

No way Perry gets near 50.

Nathan Hale
03-02-2010, 07:51 AM
Perry - 51%
KBH - 34%
Medina - 15%

Elwar
03-02-2010, 08:56 AM
Perry: 48%
Medina: 27%
KBH: 22%
Other: 3%

Justinjj1
03-02-2010, 09:17 AM
Perry - 56%
KBH - 30%
Medina - 14%

winston_blade
03-02-2010, 09:18 AM
Perry- 42%
KBH- 23%
Medina- 31%
School Sucks- 4%

seeker4sho
03-02-2010, 11:00 AM
The Indi vote, the new vote and the cross-over vote go very heavily to Medina. The Mexican vote goes slightly to Medina, The old time Republicans go heavily to Perry,

But the overall net result, with double normal turnout, most of whom will be supporting Debra, the final count will come in : Medina 46%, Perry 29%, and KBH 25%. Medina needs only 4% in the runoff and wins going away.

I hope you are right but I am not so sure about the old time Republicans. There were a lot of old folks attending the Medina rallies and voicing support for her. (YouTubes). Since I live in Florida it is hard to get a true picture and feel for the election -- being an eternal optimist does not help :). I hope Medina wins outright, on the other hand, if she does not win outright I hope she will be in the runoff. I am optimistic about the final outcome. Medina is on her way to becoming the next Ron Paul regardless.

Agorism
03-02-2010, 11:21 AM
What percent early voting?

buck000
03-02-2010, 11:28 AM
I would be thrilled to see Ms. Medina get over 20% in the primary (she got my vote).

Even if she didn't prevail in the primary, having 20+% would serve to continue to wake people up.

While I would love to see Dr. Paul, Ms. Medina, et al, take over the halls of power in D.C., I see them more as 'kindling' for the liberty movement. They may not ever be in the positions we want them to be in, but they're paving the way for future candidates to garner more and more votes.

I was extremely disappointed when Dr. Paul fared so poorly in the actual Presidential primary, but am happy that he continues to Spread The Word.

My 0.02.

Go Ms. Medina!

John Taylor
03-02-2010, 11:36 AM
Perry- 52%
KBH- 27%
Medina- 21%

Unfortunately, I think this is how it'll go. However, Medina will be in great shape to make a run for Kay Bailout's Senate seat from her vantage point... if not that, definitely for a state-wide office, and a shoe in for State Senate down in the 14th.

AmericasLastHope
03-02-2010, 11:40 AM
h ttp://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/texas-governors-race-predictio.html?wprss=thefix

Jordan
03-02-2010, 12:46 PM
Perry- 51%
KBH- 27%
Medina- 22%

Aratus
03-02-2010, 01:04 PM
34% perry
33% medina
33% KBH

eok321
03-02-2010, 01:07 PM
Perry 45%
Debra 27%
KBH 24%

Bergie Bergeron
03-02-2010, 01:10 PM
60% Debra
25% Perry
15% Bailout

DapperDan
03-02-2010, 01:43 PM
Debra landslide victory
http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff28/MhmJazee/dance-1.gif


Seriously though...

Perry 40+%
Debra 25+%
KBH 20+%

seeker4sho
03-02-2010, 03:30 PM
60% Debra
25% Perry
15% Bailout

If this should happen the MSM will report it: 25% Perry, 15% Bailout, 60% Unknown.

RedLightning
03-02-2010, 03:39 PM
44% Perry
36% Bailout
20% Medina

I hope I'm wrong. I think we just didn't have enough time.

freedoms-light
03-02-2010, 03:51 PM
44% Perry
36% Bailout
20% Medina

I hope I'm wrong. I think we just didn't have enough time.

Thanks, Glenn beck and MSM.
She was on target to at least beat "Bail out".

Does anyone else still believe that Glenn Beck has "come around"?

bruce leeroy
03-02-2010, 04:07 PM
I think simply by gettin 20+%, Medina is sending a very powerful message
and I would not be suprised if she is neck and neck or slightly ahead of kay bailout when the dust clears

Texan4Life
03-02-2010, 04:23 PM
i hope and am pretty confident she will beat bailout.

thasre
03-02-2010, 05:01 PM
Debra landslide victory
http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff28/MhmJazee/dance-1.gif


I feel like that kid should start ripping his clothes off at any moment LOL. (I hope that doesn't make me sound like a perv.)

Also, sadly, I'm going to predict something along the lines of

45% Rick Perry
29% Kay Bailey Hutchison
24% Debra Medina

with the rest going to other lesser candidates.

I hope I'm wrong.

IPSecure
03-02-2010, 05:14 PM
My prediction:

Toll Road Perry- 0%
Debra Medina- 100%
K Bailout H- 0%

Tune In For Results: http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/mar02_148_state.htm

Southron
03-02-2010, 05:40 PM
No matter the results you Texans must not waste her potential now.

If she loses she either needs to run for US House or Texas state senate if possible.

Her name recognition is now a valuable asset!

Nathan Hale
03-02-2010, 09:49 PM
From the AP:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_texas_primary

With a third of precincts reporting, Perry was ahead with 52 percent of the vote to Hutchison's 31 percent. Medina had 17 percent.

constituent
03-03-2010, 07:23 AM
If she loses she either needs to run for US House or Texas state senate if possible.


...or comptroller of public accounts. :)