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fez2008
10-07-2007, 07:19 PM
Look at the variations considering the 4% margin of error :
2nd quarter (poll results from Jun 15th Gallup):
Reps total = $49 mil
-- - Poll - Expected Actual(funds raised in mil)
RG - 29% - 14.2-- 17.0 -> 34% of funds
JM - 20% - 10.0-- 11.59 -> 23% of funds
MR - 8% - 4.0-- 12.0 -> 24% of funds (anamoly)
RP - 2% - 0.98-- 2.4 -> 4.8% of funds
MH - 3% - 1.76-- 0.77 -> 2.5% of funds
DH - 2% - 0.9-- 0.81 -> 2 %
SB - 2% - 0.9-- 1.43 -> 3%
TT - 1% - 0.44-- 1.46 -> 3%

Dems total = $81 mil
-- Poll Expected Actual
HC - 33% - 27.00-- 26.0 -> 32% of funds
BO - 21% - 17.00-- 32.0 -> 39.5% of funds (anamoly)
JE - 13% - 10.53-- 8.9 -> 11% of funds
BR - 5% - 4.05-- 6.9 -> 8.5% of funds
JB - 3% - 2.43-- 2.3 -> 3% of funds
DK - 1% - 0.81-- 0.8 -> 1% of funds
MG - 1% -


3rd quarter(poll results from Sep 15th Gallup):
-- - Poll Expected Actual
RG - 30% - 13.2-- 11.0 -> 25% of funds
FT - 22% - 9.68-- 9.3 -> 21% of funds
JM - 18% - 7.92-- 6.0 -> 14% of funds
MR - 7% - 3.08-- 10.0 -> 23% of funds (anamoly)
RP - 4% - 1.76-- 5.1 -> 12% of funds (anamoly)
MH - 4% - 1.76-- 1.1 -> 2.5% of funds
DH - 2% - 0.9--
SB - 2% - 0.9--
TT - 1% - 0.44--

-- Poll Expected Actual
HC - 47% - 27.26-- 22.0 -> 37% of funds (anamoly)
BO - 25% - 11.75-- 19.0 -> 32% of funds (anamoly)
JE - 11% - 6.38-- 7.0 -> 12% of funds
BR - 5% - 2.9-- 5.3 -> 9% of funds
JB - 3% - 1.74-- 2.0 -> 3% of funds
DK - 2% -
CD - 1% - 0.58-- 1.5 -> 2.5% of funds
MG - 1% -

Conclusions:
RP must be atleast at 8-9%
BO and MR are also having this problem of not registering the actual support in polls