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rp08orbust
02-23-2010, 09:28 AM
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Perry still favored
Debra Medina is fading in the Texas Republican race for Governor, and it continues to look like the contest is headed for a runoff where Rick Perry will be a strong favorite over Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Perry leads with 40% to 31% for Hutchison and 20% for Medina. Compared to PPP's look at the race two weeks ago Perry has gained a point, Hutchison has gone up three, and Medina's standing has declined by four.

Unless Perry wins the remaining undecideds by an overwhelming margin and/or peels off more of Medina's support it looks like he won't get to the 50% needed for an outright victory next week. But he leads Hutchison 52-35 in a potential runoff thanks in large part to Medina's supporters, who say Perry is their second choice by a 52-24 margin.

It's been a rough couple of weeks for Medina's standing. Her favorability spread in the previous poll was 40/9 for a +31 net positive. Now she's at 36/30 for a net positive of just +6. A 25 point drop on your numbers in the span of just two weeks is pretty unusual.

Fair or not the issue of whether Medina is a 'truther'- someone who thinks the federal government was involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks- seems to be hurting her. 21% of primary voters think she subscribes to that theory while another 29% are unsure. Among that half of the electorate Medina is getting just 7% with 51% going to Perry and 30% to Hutchison. Medina actually leads with the half that does not think she is a truther, with 33% to 32% for Hutchison and 29% for Perry.

Although it now appears Hutchison will safely avoid the embarrassment of a third place finish her weak standing with conservative voters continues to make it unlikely that she will fare well in a primary electorate dominated by them. She actually has a negative approval rating- 43/45 with them- and trails Perry 45-24. She has a dominant 51-26 lead with moderates, but they account for just a quarter of likely voters.

Hutchison's struggles are not necessarily a product of voters disliking her so much as their wishing she would just stay in the Senate. 37% say that's the office they would like her serving in compared to 31% who wish she was out of elected office and 24% who would like her as Governor.

As for Perry his 50/41 approval spread within the GOP primary electorate is pretty mediocre but barring some major change of events he should win nomination for another term. That will set up what will likely be his closest race for Governor yet against Houston Mayor Bill White, who's cruising to the Democratic nomination with a 59-12 lead over his main challenger.http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/perry-still-favored.html

ScotTX
02-23-2010, 09:32 AM
crap.

rp08orbust
02-23-2010, 09:36 AM
I think "stalled" would be more accurate than "fading." 20% is within the margin of error of her last result of 24%.

But of course when we're so close to the election, stalling = fading for an underdog.

At least she didn't fall back to 4% like Glenn Beck was hoping, which means her political career is far from over.

Bergie Bergeron
02-23-2010, 09:46 AM
What this means: Texans must go door to door to convince people to vote for Medina ! We've got to step it up, BIG TIME.

1836er
02-23-2010, 09:53 AM
If this 20% number is close to accurate I actually consider it pretty good news.

While the momentum of earlier this month may have stalled thanks to that notorious event, it means she's still got a sizable base of support... and with good turnout by her supporters and perhaps some non-traditional GOP primary voters... the road map to victory (at least a second place showing and likely runoff) is still viable. If you had told me two months ago that heading into the last week of February Debra would be sitting at 20%... I would have taken it in a heartbeat. From my perspective, 20% at this point looks like a pretty good "striking position."

More important, in terms of the perceptions of a large chunk of the electorate, the 20% means she has not "crashed" in the polls and (especially after the last 12 days) remains the viable candidate that just a few weeks ago many potential new supporters were beginning to see her as.

rp08orbust
02-23-2010, 09:56 AM
If this 20% number is close to accurate I actually consider it pretty good news.

While the momentum of earlier this month may have stalled thanks to that notorious event, it means she's still got a sizable base of support... and with good turnout by her supporters and perhaps some non-traditional GOP primary voters... the road map to victory (at least a second place showing and likely runoff) is still viable. If you had told me two months ago that heading into the last week of February Debra would be sitting at 20%... I would have taken it in a heartbeat. From my perspective, 20% at this point looks like a pretty good "striking position."

More important, in terms of the perceptions of a large chunk of the electorate, the 20% means she has not "crashed" in the polls and (especially after the last 12 days) remains the viable candidate that just a few weeks ago many potential new supporters were beginning to see her as.

Good points. Given the fact that most other polls had her in the high teens---PPP is still the only one to have her in the twenties--I think we can honestly spin this as Glenn Beck's attack fails to shake support for Debra Medina.

jmdrake
02-23-2010, 09:57 AM
We can destroy Rick Perry if we act fast.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232966

Rick Perry honored a "post 9/11 truther" (Michael Savage). Force Glenn Beck to cover this and then Perry either has to tick off Savage viewers by denouncing Savage or risk looking like a hypocrite for denouncing Medina.

dirknb@hotmail.com
02-23-2010, 10:23 AM
The poll was 400 people who voted in a Republican primary in the past with land lines. I've heard reports of turnouts ranging from 3 to 6 times normal rates for early voting. We are talking to a lot of Democrats who are switching primaries to vote for her because they think Bill White will do best against her, and White has the Dem. race pretty much wrapped up. Also, the largest organization of Independents in TX has endorsed Debra. First-time primary voters are showing up in droves and voting the Republican ballot.

John Taylor
02-23-2010, 10:28 AM
The poll was 400 people who voted in a Republican primary in the past with land lines. I've heard reports of turnouts ranging from 3 to 6 times normal rates for early voting. We are talking to a lot of Democrats who are switching primaries to vote for her because they think Bill White will do best against her, and White has the Dem. race pretty much wrapped up. Also, the largest organization of Independents in TX has endorsed Debra. First-time primary voters are showing up in droves and voting the Republican ballot.

I think this poll is great news.

What it shows is that Medina has not been fatally hurt by that interview.

Two weeks ago the press would be trumpeting the stunning rise, yet when she is within the margin of error all is "fading"? Nonsense. What it shows is that she is within striking distance of Kay Bailey, which is all she needs to do. Get another 5% locked down, and anything can happen. That means if just 1/4 of Medina's supporters convince a single additional person to back Medina, the race between her and Kay Bailey is in the margin of error... where all good things are possible.

Just my 2 cents.

ScotTX
02-23-2010, 10:29 AM
I think the Dems, Indies, and new voters will put Medina in 2nd for the run-off. But regardless, Medina has solidified herself as the future of the Liberty movement in Texas.

constituent
02-23-2010, 10:48 AM
I think this poll is great news.

What it shows is that Medina has not been fatally hurt by that interview.


agreed. it's a good sign whether she manages to squeak into 2nd or not. my fingers are still crossed.

johngr
02-23-2010, 11:32 AM
While the momentum of earlier this month may have stalled thanks to that notorious event, it means she's still got a sizable base of support...

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

rprprs
02-23-2010, 11:48 AM
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

lol. I spent 4 years in college, and that is one of only two things I really learned there. ;)

dannno
02-23-2010, 11:49 AM
The poll was 400 people who voted in a Republican primary in the past with land lines. I've heard reports of turnouts ranging from 3 to 6 times normal rates for early voting. We are talking to a lot of Democrats who are switching primaries to vote for her because they think Bill White will do best against her, and White has the Dem. race pretty much wrapped up. Also, the largest organization of Independents in TX has endorsed Debra. First-time primary voters are showing up in droves and voting the Republican ballot.

Ya I tried to explain in the other thread that the PPP numbers won't be accurate.... nobody belieeeeeved me...

They put up a graph ;)

nate895
02-23-2010, 12:18 PM
If you convince the "unsure" folks, that should give Medina about a ten point boost if they keep with the numbers of the 50% who don't think she is a "Truther," and from there it would be possible to battle for a runoff. If you also convinced those "unsure" folks, I'd be willing to bet that more of the not a Truther folks would vote for here on the basis of higher electability.

johnrocks
02-23-2010, 12:23 PM
If she can get 20% or more in the election, I will be happy, of course, if she came in ahead of Hutchinson and forced Perry into a runoff, I'd be ecstatic.

K466
02-23-2010, 01:47 PM
I'm glad the numbers are not any lower. A win is still possible but it will take a lot of work.

libertybrewcity
02-23-2010, 02:00 PM
Will new primary voters, democrats, youth, and independents be enough to put Medina over the 6-11% needed to pass up KBH?

rp08orbust
02-23-2010, 02:04 PM
Will new primary voters, democrats, youth, and independents be enough to put Medina over the 6-11% needed to pass up KBH?

If they differ by 11 points, Debra would only need to pick up 5.5 points from KBH to pass her. Or 4 from Perry and 4 from KBH would also do it.

The theoretical minimum that Debra needs in order to make it into the run-off is 25%.

Number19
02-23-2010, 02:09 PM
Take a look at Q17. Only 2% of the poll's responders were Democrat and 18% were Independent. I looked and couldn't find whom these groups supported, maybe I just overlooked it, but the general consensus is that these two groups lean heavily toward Medina. So a heavy turnout among these could still change the race.

Also I noted Q10 and Q11. 81% did not identify themselves as libertarian, but 74% supported the goals of the Tea Party Movement. It seems to me that "tea party movement" means little more than "opposition to the liberal agenda" ie opposition to Obama. Our movement has been hijacked.

ctiger2
02-23-2010, 02:22 PM
Hopefully a bunch of Democrats are registering as Republicans to vote for Medina, if not just to kick Ken Doll Perry out.

Galileo Galilei
02-23-2010, 02:46 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/perry-still-favored.html

This is the 2nd best poll for Medina in the entire campaign:

Texas Governor - Republican Primary
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/tx/texas_governor_republican_primary-1082.html#polls

She isn't fading.

The poll also has only 400 people surveyed, pretty low.

It is also hard to believe this is the first poll since the Glenn Beck incident. It's more likely that other polls were done and not released that show Medina doing better.

Medina is still on the rise in my opinion. She is being outspent 10 to 1 and has made a name for herself. Even if she doesn't win, she could get into congress and join Ron Paul in a couple years.

Times have changed. If regular people can out of the woodwork and make major impacts, the NWO will go down in flames.

Flash
02-23-2010, 02:55 PM
We can destroy Rick Perry if we act fast.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232966

Rick Perry honored a "post 9/11 truther" (Michael Savage). Force Glenn Beck to cover this and then Perry either has to tick off Savage viewers by denouncing Savage or risk looking like a hypocrite for denouncing Medina.

Michael savage isn't a 9/11 truther.

dr. hfn
02-23-2010, 03:00 PM
convert your Tea Parties!

michaelwise
02-23-2010, 03:16 PM
“Agreed Yeah”.

And if The US government had anything to do with letting 9/11 happen and knew it would happen, Agreed, Our government is despicable. A new investigation would answer this question.

Debra should do a 30 minute Internet address concerning only this 9/11 conspiracy research group subject . She should use a blackboard like Glenn Beck does, listing all the quotes so far about the 9/11 controversy, and pick each one apart individually and address them one by one.

This is Debra’s only redemption.

Debra has both sides mad at her at this point. Even if she had to throw every other issue to the wind for the rest of the campaign and focused on only the 9/11 subject at this point she would come out much further ahead in the poles.

Galileo Galilei
02-23-2010, 04:33 PM
Another fraud with the PPP spin:

The poll says 33% have no opinion on Medina (favorability ratings).

It also says 29% think she might be a "truther".

But if a voter doesn't know much about Medina, how would they know she might be a "truther"?

If I said; Do you think John Doe is a "truther", and if you no little about John Doe, then you'd likely conclude Doe might be a "truther".

In other owrds, Medina polls worse with people who don't know her or don't have an opinion on her, a normal circumstance.

The favorablilty numbers show Medina can get win or get 2nd place.

She has favorability of 36% with 33% not sure.

Perry is at 50% approve with 9% not sure. (41% don't like)

Bailout is at 47% approve with 10% not sure. (43% don't like)

Most of the 9% or 10% who are unsure on Bailout/Perry are not likely to vote for them, as they have been in the news for years. If a voter doesn't approve by now, they never will.

We can also assume a lot of overlap between those who approve of Bailout and Perry. We can also assume that a lot of those who like Medina don't like Perry/Bailout.

Medina needs about 30% to finish 2nd. She has a favorabilty of 36%. She needs voters who already like her to vote for her to win or get 2nd, and to pick up some support from those who are unsure about her or don't like Perry/Bailout.

seeker4sho
02-23-2010, 04:35 PM
I think the Dems, Indies, and new voters will put Medina in 2nd for the run-off. But regardless, Medina has solidified herself as the future of the Liberty movement in Texas.

I happily disagree Scott. I think she is going to blow the others out of the race on March 2nd and will win it outright. Perry and KBH are attracting the neocons in the Republican Party, where as Medina is attracting the rest of the Texas voters. There are far more property owners than warmongers. We shall see :)

Galileo Galilei
02-23-2010, 04:50 PM
The poll says 74% agree with the Tea Party movement.

Frankly, Medina should win that demographic. I don't see tea partiers voting for Bailout at all.

rprprs
02-23-2010, 05:03 PM
I happily disagree Scott. I think she is going to blow the others out of the race on March 2nd and will win it outright. Perry and KBH are attracting the neocons in the Republican Party, where as Medina is attracting the rest of the Texas voters. There are far more property owners than warmongers. We shall see :)

I don't share that opinion, seeker, but I sure do approve of it! :)
Stay positive.

Number19
02-23-2010, 05:18 PM
Here's something at TexasMonthly's BurkaBlog:

posted by paulburka at 11:47 AM

Sifting through the dumpster behind the Democratic party headquarters, I came across discarded copies of this memo.

From: Your Democratic leaders
To: All Democratic voters
Re: Election strategy

To all Democrats in Texas:

We have determined that the best strategy for Democrats in this election is to vote in the Republican primary and we urge all loyal Democrats to do so, except in areas of the state, such as South Texas, El Paso, and some East Texas counties where most local officials are Democrats.

We realize that our statewide ticket is very weak, with one exception–Bill White, of course. Don’t waste your vote in the Democratic primary. The best way to help our party and our future nominee for governor is to vote in the REPUBLICAN primary for Kay Bailey Hutchison. The result we seek is for Hutchison to force Rick Perry into a runoff....Check out these early voting numbers for the two primaries in the ten largest counties:

Harris 170,032 D, 51,199 R
Dallas 119,880 D, 31,852 R
Tarrant 82,578 D, 35,621 R
Bexar 101,244 D, 32,457 R
Travis 95,219 D, 17,995 R
Collin 35,665 D, 23,368 R
Denton 27,979 D, 16,290 R
Fort Bend 34,387 D, 14,323 R
Montgomery 12,622 D, 15,920 R
Williamson 32,252 D, 13,113 R

Please vote today in the REPUBLICAN primary for Kay Bailey Hutchison and help elect Bill White governor.

(edit) quit a few comments about the validity of this "report". Particularly noteworthy are the vote totals from the 10 counties, which is in stark contrast to Brazoria County this year. Someone commented that these totals were from 2008 when the Democrats had such a large turnout because of Obama.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/

Promontorium
02-23-2010, 07:16 PM
The Truthers did this. They killed Medina. Long live 9/11.

tpreitzel
02-23-2010, 07:48 PM
The Truthers did this. They killed Medina. Long live 9/11.

No, haters of truth did it to Medina. ;)

Personally, if somewhat accurate, I, too, see the poll as a source for optimism. Simply continue working for Debra over the next few days. I want to see if Texans see through Beck's shenanigans and lies. I want to see if Texans side with truth or haters of truth.

paulitics
02-23-2010, 07:49 PM
20% is higher than I expected. That is more like stalling out, not fading. Beck failed, but unfortunately Medina made the 911 truth a bigger issue than it deserved to be. She needs to go back to pre-Beck Medina. It's like Beck put an uncharismatic hex on her.

paulitics
02-23-2010, 07:53 PM
Michael savage isn't a 9/11 truther.

He's an inside jobber.

Badger Paul
02-23-2010, 10:10 PM
20 percent is still pretty damn good even despite the establishment's attempts to destroy her. It may have stopped her upward momentum, but it doesn't mean she's out of it either.

She's certainly not back at 4% Mr. Rodeo-Clown.

What's needed is an intense effort at getting out the vote because Hutchinson's support is soft. I can't imagine there are a lot of hardcore Kay Bailey fans out there.

Galileo Galilei
02-24-2010, 04:20 PM
The Truthers did this. They killed Medina. Long live 9/11.

I have already disproved this several times in this thread. Please take a read. Notice that PPP never tells us how she polls among those who said "yes" she's a "truther". That number is no doubt higher than those who "don't know" if she's a truther.

michaelwise
02-24-2010, 04:49 PM
The answer to every TV host on the 9/11 truther question should be;
"What? Are you trying to paint me into the 9/11 truther box? Are you a Moron? Your question is two dimensional and your pattern indicates two dimensional thinking. 9/11 is a very complex subject an wanting a two dimensional answer to your question just makes you sound stupid.