Bruno
02-21-2010, 07:55 AM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100221/NEWS09/2210329/1001/NEWS/Iowa-s-independent-voters-turning-away-from-Obama
A sharp drop in approval for President Barack Obama from Iowa's political independents has pushed the Democrat's approval further below 50 percent in the state and below the national average, according to the latest Iowa Poll.
Approval among Iowa independents has dropped 10 percentage points since November, to 38 percent. Independents in Iowa helped Obama win the leadoff nominating caucuses in 2008 and later carry the state in the general election.
Similar shifts in independent voters helped elect Republicans in governor races last year and a special U.S. Senate election last month. The Iowa findings confirm Democrats' worries that this key voting bloc could sit out this fall or vote for Republicans.
"That's been the big drop that's occurred," Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of the shift of independents away from Democrats. "It fueled Scott Brown in Massachusetts. It clearly helped create the margin of victory in New Jersey and Virginia.
"It's obviously a very worrisome development for this November," said Maslin, who was Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign pollster. "If those kinds of trends continue, then obviously we are in danger of losing the U.S. House and potentially the U.S. Senate."
Forty-six percent of Iowans approve of Obama's handling of his job, according to the poll taken Jan. 31 to Feb. 3. That's down from 49 percent in November.
It is also 22 percentage points lower than Obama's Iowa approval of 68 percent around his inauguration last year.
President Bill Clinton was the most recent president to experience a similar drop in his Iowa approval early in his presidency. The Democrat's approval in Iowa fell by 22 percentage points in 1993 during his first 10 months in office.
Like Obama, Clinton entered office amid a recession, took controversial steps to spur the economy, and took on health care early in his administration. Obama signed a $787 billion spending package a year ago aimed at slowing unemployment. Clinton signed a recovery bill that included a tax increase.
Clinton's eight-year low in Iowa was 49 percent, reached midway through his second year in office.
The new poll was conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and includes telephone interviews with 805 Iowans 18 years and older. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Obama's Iowa rating is lower than in most national polls, which showed him climbing above the 50 percent threshold in late January. The daily national tracking poll by the public opinion research company Gallup Inc. during the time the Iowa Poll was taken showed Obama's approval at 51 percent.
In Iowa, views of Obama's handling of key domestic issues remain a problem for him. No more than 40 percent of Iowans approve of his performance on the economy, health care and the budget deficit, although the rates are essentially unchanged since the Register's last poll, taken in November.
What has changed: The fractions of independents who support Obama's handling of all three of these issues have shrunk in the past three months.
One-third of independents now say they approve of his work on the economy, about 30 percent on health care and less than a quarter on the budget deficit. Obama pledged during his State of the Union address in January to make jobs, health care and spending cuts top priorities this year.
Obama's 2008 deputy national campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, acknowledged that Obama has had a hard time maintaining independents' support. That's in part because independents tend to eschew party labels, and that makes them less reliable, he said, and also because economic conditions remain tenuous.
"By all accounts, they were the significant bloc across the country that elected Barack Obama president. So he's going to have to work hard to get that support back, and I think he'll do that," said Hildebrand, who ran Al Gore's Iowa caucus campaign in 2000. "It's going to take Obama getting his agenda completed and getting the economy back on track. And that will depend on who gets the credit or the blame depending on the state of our country."
Obama's approval from Democrats remains high at 83 percent, virtually unchanged from November but lower than the 90 percent in September. Republican approval remains low at 15 percent, about the same as in November.
A 52 percent majority of independent voters nationally backed Obama in the 2008 election, according to exit polls conducted for CNN. In Iowa, the percentage was higher, at 56, according to those exit polls. Obama carried Iowa with 54 percent of the vote. In the new Iowa Poll, 37 percent of independent likely voters approve of Obama's performance.
Jesse Woltz, a Democrat-leaning independent from Des Moines, voted for Obama in 2008, but he had doubts at the time that Obama could deliver on the changes he proposed.
Woltz, 30, said he objected to Obama's decision last year to send more troops into Afghanistan. He also expresses an overall frustration with the federal government that he says is not entirely Obama's fault, although he is disappointed in the president.
"I was behind what he said during the campaign, but I was hesitant to say he would get it done. I feel like for the most part it hasn't happened," said Woltz, who spent seven months unemployed from a research and development position last year. "And I feel that every decision he's made on the war basically has gone against everything he ran on."
It is too early to predict how independent voters who backed Obama will vote in Iowa this fall, pollsters say. Economic conditions nationally could change, as could local political currents.
But there have been clues in recent months that independent voters have shifted in other states as the parties prepare for midterm elections.
Obama carried New Jersey in 2008 with the support of a slim majority of independent voters, according to the CNN exit polls.
In November, Republican Chris Christie beat incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine. Christie captured 58 percent of self-described independent voters, according to an election night poll conducted for the Republican Party in New Jersey.
Turnout for a presidential election is often larger and consists of less reliable voters than for midterm elections, said Christie's pollster, Adam Geller.
In that way, poll findings about Obama's approval bear less directly on how people will vote for offices such as governor and members of Congress two years before the president seeks re-election, Geller said.
But Geller and Democratic pollsters say independent voters are shaping up to look more like Republican voters than Democrats at the dawn of the election year.
"I can tell you that independents were certainly telling us they were much more likely to vote for Chris Chrstie and not Jon Corzine," Geller said. "It's entirely possible that while Republicans could have a monster year this year, and make decent gains, that doesn't necessarily portend anything for Obama in 2012, when turnout will be markedly higher."
A sharp drop in approval for President Barack Obama from Iowa's political independents has pushed the Democrat's approval further below 50 percent in the state and below the national average, according to the latest Iowa Poll.
Approval among Iowa independents has dropped 10 percentage points since November, to 38 percent. Independents in Iowa helped Obama win the leadoff nominating caucuses in 2008 and later carry the state in the general election.
Similar shifts in independent voters helped elect Republicans in governor races last year and a special U.S. Senate election last month. The Iowa findings confirm Democrats' worries that this key voting bloc could sit out this fall or vote for Republicans.
"That's been the big drop that's occurred," Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of the shift of independents away from Democrats. "It fueled Scott Brown in Massachusetts. It clearly helped create the margin of victory in New Jersey and Virginia.
"It's obviously a very worrisome development for this November," said Maslin, who was Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign pollster. "If those kinds of trends continue, then obviously we are in danger of losing the U.S. House and potentially the U.S. Senate."
Forty-six percent of Iowans approve of Obama's handling of his job, according to the poll taken Jan. 31 to Feb. 3. That's down from 49 percent in November.
It is also 22 percentage points lower than Obama's Iowa approval of 68 percent around his inauguration last year.
President Bill Clinton was the most recent president to experience a similar drop in his Iowa approval early in his presidency. The Democrat's approval in Iowa fell by 22 percentage points in 1993 during his first 10 months in office.
Like Obama, Clinton entered office amid a recession, took controversial steps to spur the economy, and took on health care early in his administration. Obama signed a $787 billion spending package a year ago aimed at slowing unemployment. Clinton signed a recovery bill that included a tax increase.
Clinton's eight-year low in Iowa was 49 percent, reached midway through his second year in office.
The new poll was conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and includes telephone interviews with 805 Iowans 18 years and older. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Obama's Iowa rating is lower than in most national polls, which showed him climbing above the 50 percent threshold in late January. The daily national tracking poll by the public opinion research company Gallup Inc. during the time the Iowa Poll was taken showed Obama's approval at 51 percent.
In Iowa, views of Obama's handling of key domestic issues remain a problem for him. No more than 40 percent of Iowans approve of his performance on the economy, health care and the budget deficit, although the rates are essentially unchanged since the Register's last poll, taken in November.
What has changed: The fractions of independents who support Obama's handling of all three of these issues have shrunk in the past three months.
One-third of independents now say they approve of his work on the economy, about 30 percent on health care and less than a quarter on the budget deficit. Obama pledged during his State of the Union address in January to make jobs, health care and spending cuts top priorities this year.
Obama's 2008 deputy national campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, acknowledged that Obama has had a hard time maintaining independents' support. That's in part because independents tend to eschew party labels, and that makes them less reliable, he said, and also because economic conditions remain tenuous.
"By all accounts, they were the significant bloc across the country that elected Barack Obama president. So he's going to have to work hard to get that support back, and I think he'll do that," said Hildebrand, who ran Al Gore's Iowa caucus campaign in 2000. "It's going to take Obama getting his agenda completed and getting the economy back on track. And that will depend on who gets the credit or the blame depending on the state of our country."
Obama's approval from Democrats remains high at 83 percent, virtually unchanged from November but lower than the 90 percent in September. Republican approval remains low at 15 percent, about the same as in November.
A 52 percent majority of independent voters nationally backed Obama in the 2008 election, according to exit polls conducted for CNN. In Iowa, the percentage was higher, at 56, according to those exit polls. Obama carried Iowa with 54 percent of the vote. In the new Iowa Poll, 37 percent of independent likely voters approve of Obama's performance.
Jesse Woltz, a Democrat-leaning independent from Des Moines, voted for Obama in 2008, but he had doubts at the time that Obama could deliver on the changes he proposed.
Woltz, 30, said he objected to Obama's decision last year to send more troops into Afghanistan. He also expresses an overall frustration with the federal government that he says is not entirely Obama's fault, although he is disappointed in the president.
"I was behind what he said during the campaign, but I was hesitant to say he would get it done. I feel like for the most part it hasn't happened," said Woltz, who spent seven months unemployed from a research and development position last year. "And I feel that every decision he's made on the war basically has gone against everything he ran on."
It is too early to predict how independent voters who backed Obama will vote in Iowa this fall, pollsters say. Economic conditions nationally could change, as could local political currents.
But there have been clues in recent months that independent voters have shifted in other states as the parties prepare for midterm elections.
Obama carried New Jersey in 2008 with the support of a slim majority of independent voters, according to the CNN exit polls.
In November, Republican Chris Christie beat incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine. Christie captured 58 percent of self-described independent voters, according to an election night poll conducted for the Republican Party in New Jersey.
Turnout for a presidential election is often larger and consists of less reliable voters than for midterm elections, said Christie's pollster, Adam Geller.
In that way, poll findings about Obama's approval bear less directly on how people will vote for offices such as governor and members of Congress two years before the president seeks re-election, Geller said.
But Geller and Democratic pollsters say independent voters are shaping up to look more like Republican voters than Democrats at the dawn of the election year.
"I can tell you that independents were certainly telling us they were much more likely to vote for Chris Chrstie and not Jon Corzine," Geller said. "It's entirely possible that while Republicans could have a monster year this year, and make decent gains, that doesn't necessarily portend anything for Obama in 2012, when turnout will be markedly higher."