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Flash
02-20-2010, 01:31 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions-on-where-to-poll.html


Coming next week we'll have polls from Texas (early indications are that Medina is fading) and New Mexico.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:32 PM
Already wrote about this in the "No new polls since the beck incident" thread.

Nate-ForLiberty
02-20-2010, 01:33 PM
don't make it a self-fulfilling headline.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:35 PM
Also, that's just the early indicators (I assume from friday's polling). Maybe she'll do better today:)

TCE
02-20-2010, 01:37 PM
Public Policy Polling always has the polls done, then they release what the results are going to be on their blog, and then the actual polls are released a day or two after that. Translation: Medina is down from 24%.

dannno
02-20-2010, 01:39 PM
The polls mean nothing because there are a lot of new voters in this election.. the polling is from the old voters.. not to mention I don't trust their polling data.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:40 PM
Definitely down from 24 %. Honestly, I think a lot of people on this forum underestimated the effect of the Beck interview. Many many voters got a bad first impression of Medina because of it.

Bergie Bergeron
02-20-2010, 01:40 PM
The polls mean nothing because there are a lot of new voters in this election.. the polling is from the old voters.. not to mention I don't trust their polling data.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:41 PM
Sure, but there weren't that many new voters in 08. I still think PPP is about right, at least about the trends.

dannno
02-20-2010, 01:41 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg

That has to be based on a trust of the voting machines as well.

rp08orbust
02-20-2010, 01:47 PM
The polls mean nothing because there are a lot of new voters in this election.. the polling is from the old voters.. not to mention I don't trust their polling data.

I'd like to believe that, but that's what we said about all the polls about Ron Paul in 2007/2008.

Remember the surge in Republican registrations in Florida in late 2007? We all thought those just had to be Ron Paul supporters because no one would join a party for Mitt Romney, right?

TCE
02-20-2010, 02:25 PM
Sure, but there weren't that many new voters in 08. I still think PPP is about right, at least about the trends.

...You're kidding, right? At least on your first sentence.

PPP is incredibly accurate and was correct in Massachusetts a month ago. If they say Perry is way up on Medina, I believe them.

Galileo Galilei
02-20-2010, 02:38 PM
New article:

A Texas Senator, Now a Challenger Lagging in Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/us/politics/21texas.html

TCE
02-20-2010, 03:01 PM
New article:

A Texas Senator, Now a Challenger Lagging in Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/us/politics/21texas.html

A pretty bad article for Debra. Makes her sound like a completely irrelevant candidate.

orafi
02-20-2010, 03:07 PM
So PPP only polled voters from the previous election?

rprprs
02-20-2010, 03:14 PM
New article:

A Texas Senator, Now a Challenger Lagging in Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/us/politics/21texas.html

Ugh! Why don't they just put a crown on Perry's head and be done with it?!
:mad::mad::mad:

JohnG
02-20-2010, 03:23 PM
No, I'm not kidding. There were new voters in 2008, but I believe there are many more now in Texas (as a %).

TCE
02-20-2010, 03:28 PM
No, I'm not kidding. There were new voters in 2008, but I believe there are many more now in Texas (as a %).

There were hundreds of thousands of new voters in 2008, perhaps even a million. PPP is incredibly accurate and many other polls have come out showing Perry in a commanding lead, Hutchison way behind, and Medina trailing Hutchison by a few points.

TruckinMike
02-20-2010, 04:03 PM
//

TMike

jabf2006
02-20-2010, 04:07 PM
I don't care about the polls. I love listening to her speak. Reminds me of when I first started listening to Ron Paul. I wish Rand Paul would speak more like Debra.

I hope the people in Texas don't pay too much attention to the polls and focus on getting as many Medina supporters out to vote as possible.

TexFootballMom
02-20-2010, 04:24 PM
Have Faith.

Draco33
02-20-2010, 04:32 PM
Bahh .. I don't care what the polls say. Me, My Wife and My brother just voted for Medina. Count us as 3 more that didn't vote for govenor last time around.

randolphfuller
02-20-2010, 04:36 PM
absentee voting is heavy everywhere. In some places double what it was in 2006. Polls will be subject to wide disparity as no one know who these new voters are. Texas has an open primary and anyone, regardless of past voting history, can vote in the Republican primary.

TexFootballMom
02-20-2010, 04:40 PM
Are they polling Democrats and Independents because they are voting for Debra too.

There are still a LOT of undecided.

My husband and I voted for Debra today - it felt really good. :)

undergroundrr
02-20-2010, 04:45 PM
What a lousy and false thread title. Nothing to see here. Move on.

Flash
02-20-2010, 05:43 PM
What a lousy and false thread title. Nothing to see here. Move on.

I like Medina too but PPPoll is one of the most accurate polling company. If they're hinting that shes fading then it isn't good news. I hope the Democrats and Indies vote for her like the people on this thread are saying.

Nate
02-20-2010, 07:02 PM
I like Medina too but PPPoll is one of the most accurate polling company. If they're hinting that shes fading then it isn't good news. I hope the Democrats and Indies vote for her like the people on this thread are saying.

It figures that she dropped in the Republican polls after the hack job by Beck. There are still too many "Republicans" who listen to & actually trust these MSM neo-con scumbags like Beck. If she is going to win this thing it will have to be because Independents & Democrats came over in droves. I hope that is the case.

seeker4sho
02-20-2010, 07:36 PM
I like Medina too but PPPoll is one of the most accurate polling company. If they're hinting that shes fading then it isn't good news. I hope the Democrats and Indies vote for her like the people on this thread are saying.

Were they referring to the fact that New Mexico beat out Texas as the next place for them to poll? I will be very surprised if Medina lost ground because of the Beck ambush. If anything I believe it helped her. I lived in Texas for about ten years -- outsiders do not mess with Texas and get away with it :o)

I just read the article again. Since when does a pollster give out information before the poll is complete? This does not pass the smell test.

Flash
02-20-2010, 07:50 PM
Were they referring to the fact that New Mexico beat out Texas as the next place for them to poll? I will be very surprised if Medina lost ground because of the Beck ambush. If anything I believe it helped her. I lived in Texas for about ten years -- outsiders do not mess with Texas and get away with it :o)

I just read the article again. Since when does a pollster give out information before the poll is complete? This does not pass the smell test.

Last time PPPoll polled KY they hinted Rand Paul was in the lead. A few days later they released the numbers.

seeker4sho
02-20-2010, 08:19 PM
Last time PPPoll polled KY they hinted Rand Paul was in the lead. A few days later they released the numbers.

Thanks. I hope they are wrong.

itshappening
02-20-2010, 09:20 PM
they are probably right because they get the early sample, they do it over 2 days and these trends tend to be predictable, so the results on day 1 tend to follow on day 2

cajuncocoa
02-20-2010, 09:24 PM
C'mon, Texas, I'm counting on you!

F*** you, Glenn Beck. :mad::mad::mad:

tpreitzel
02-20-2010, 09:27 PM
Hopefully, Americans will one day learn to disregard the opinions of others and simply execute their duty. If the former is done, the result will take care of itself. Americans need to stop allowing themselves to be blown around by the wind. Again, simply execute your duty (vote for Medina and help fellow voters do likewise) and the result will care of itself. If you simply MUST listen to pollsters, use unfavorable polls as a motivator! In other words, get out there, defy the odds, and work for a more favorable poll! Instead of sulking over unfavorable polls, vote, assist other voters to vote for Medina, and help the Medina campaign through donations of time and money. Go Debra! :)

TCE
02-20-2010, 09:46 PM
Looking at this from an academic point of view, Debra should not be over 10%. She spent 1/10th of what Perry and Hutchison spent, maybe not even, and she is in the teens at the very least. Had she been a millionaire, we could have won, but she's just an ordinary Texan. Still, running against two establishment candidates and even getting in the teens is commendable and Debra should be congratulated. It does nothing for the movement, but it is nice to see a somewhat competitive liberty candidate.

tpreitzel
02-20-2010, 09:49 PM
Instead of sulking over unfavorable polls, vote, assist other voters to vote for Medina, and help the Medina campaign through donations of time and money. Go Debra! :)

Who knows? Maybe, another money bomb is in order around Feb 24th or so for a billboard. How quickly can one be put up in a major metropolitan area, e.g. Houston and Dallas? ;)

IF at least 50 other people on these forums are willing to match my $100 donation for 2 billboards strategically placed in Dallas and Houston respectively with an outrageously good message favorable to Debra, then we only need to procure two billboards by Feb 25th or so. Can two billboards be purchased for $5k? Do we have 50 donors at $100 each? Can RPFs agree on a superb slogan for Texans to ponder on election day? Can Texans procure such billboards by at least Feb 25th? Lots of IFs, but I'm willing to part with money if these IFs can be made reality.

tpreitzel
02-20-2010, 10:28 PM
bump for a challenge ;)

Number19
02-20-2010, 10:40 PM
There is one thing that no has mentioned, that I'm aware of, and that is the fierce resistance taking place at the local level, by those entrenched Republicans who have been in power since Reagan. Here in Brazoria County, two years ago there was zero campaign effort for the precinct chairs and the county chair. This year we, The Texas Liberty Campaign, are running a full slate of candidates for these positions and the opposition is putting up stiff resistance. They are placing ads in the paper, putting up signs, personal mailouts and letters to the editor in response to our effort. The local paper has had two front page news stories on this battle for control of our county party. We began to see these signs of resistance about a week ago, but it has kicked into high gear just in the past few days.

They are making a determined effort to get their supporters out to the voting places and then to the precinct convention later that same evening. This battle will undoubtedly have a spill over effect on the governor's race.

libertarian4321
02-21-2010, 12:54 AM
Ugh! Why don't they just put a crown on Perry's head and be done with it?!
:mad::mad::mad:

No way, dude. Perry wouldn't allow it because the crown would mess up his perfect hair.

purplechoe
02-21-2010, 01:54 AM
Who knows? Maybe, another money bomb is in order around Feb 24th or so for a billboard. How quickly can one be put up in a major metropolitan area, e.g. Houston and Dallas? ;)

IF at least 50 other people on these forums are willing to match my $100 donation for 2 billboards strategically placed in Dallas and Houston respectively with an outrageously good message favorable to Debra, then we only need to procure two billboards by Feb 25th or so. Can two billboards be purchased for $5k? Do we have 50 donors at $100 each? Can RPFs agree on a superb slogan for Texans to ponder on election day? Can Texans procure such billboards by at least Feb 25th? Lots of IFs, but I'm willing to part with money if these IFs can be made reality.

I get the feeling you work for the billboard company... ;)

purplechoe
02-21-2010, 01:56 AM
if this Beck-Medina interview is going to derail her campaign we should make Glenn feel the heat for kicking the revolution in the groin... for the second time...

YouTube - Glenn Beck implies Ron Paul supporters are terrorists (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Rc4OJWH1nE)

Texan4Life
02-21-2010, 02:57 AM
I'm sorry but a couple of weeks ago we were praising PPP's accuracy and cheering for the 24% now we are making excuses.

so true

JohnG
02-21-2010, 03:18 AM
That's one thing I have noticed with this movement that irritates me - you're always making excuses when things aren't going your way, and you refuse to be consistent.

Here's the facts: The majority of the americans don't agree with you completely. You want to start a fight with them and call them all sorts of names, go ahead, but then "President Paul" will remain a dream forever and ever.

Look over at the Rand forum, and you'll see everyone mocking Johnson for poor showing. Johnson is EXACTLY where Medina was just two months ago. Do you want to bring a new climate to politics? Or do you want to be like that pig in "Animal farm", who started a revolution but then became an oppressor himself?

Think about it.

/John

Peace&Freedom
02-21-2010, 03:34 AM
if this Beck-Medina interview is going to derail her campaign we should make Glenn feel the heat for kicking the revolution in the groin... for the second time...


I understand Beck's ratings DID already take a hit, going down 16% last week as a result of his hatchet job on Medina. What the PPP poll may be hinting is there's been a break in the vote from Hutchison to Perry, putting him in a position to win without a runoff, whether Medina edges out Hutch or not. Perhaps it is HUTCH who is fading, not Debra.

Hutchinson's strength as a candidate is what has made this competitive to this point---as above stated, Medina did not have the money or base to be any higher than 10% in a traditional race. Maybe we should count the outing of the traitor/Judas Goat Beck (now plain for all to see) as the victory in this episode, and local supporters should analyze the primary results to note which GOP leaning districts she does best in. Find an open Republican seat situation in one of those areas, and after she moves there run her for that office.

Galileo Galilei
02-21-2010, 10:10 AM
I understand Beck's ratings DID already take a hit, going down 16% last week as a result of his hatchet job on Medina. What the PPP poll may be hinting is there's been a break in the vote from Hutchison to Perry, putting him in a position to win without a runoff, whether Medina edges out Hutch or not. Perhaps it is HUTCH who is fading, not Debra.

Hutchinson's strength as a candidate is what has made this competitive to this point---as above stated, Medina did not have the money or base to be any higher than 10% in a traditional race. Maybe we should count the outing of the traitor/Judas Goat Beck (now plain for all to see) as the victory in this episode, and local supporters should analyze the primary results to note which GOP leaning districts she does best in. Find an open Republican seat situation in one of those areas, and after she moves there run her for that office.

Medina has made a name for herself, no matter what happens. She could be in congress in two years. Just think, she'd be better than anyone there outside Ron Paul (or Rand Paul).

This is all the more reason to push for Medina now. The NWO wants you to believe that the world ends the day of the election. It doesn't. Medina getting 25% make her a cinch to get into congress later. If she gets 15%, maybe not so easy.

Galileo Galilei
02-21-2010, 10:20 AM
Texas governor's race not turning out as expected
http://www.star-telegram.com/politics/story/1984304-p2.html

seeker4sho
02-21-2010, 11:07 AM
Texas governor's race not turning out as expected
http://www.star-telegram.com/politics/story/1984304-p2.html

Thanks for the article. I think one thing folks are not taking into consideration is that Democrats and Independants will have a say in the primary. This may be wishful thinking but I have a gut feeling Medina is going to blow this race out of the water on March 2nd and win it outright.

devil21
02-21-2010, 03:47 PM
You guys really listen to the media still?

If anything, they want you to think Medina is fading just so you'll stop spreading her message and maybe not vote if you live in Texas. Ignore that stuff and do what you've been doing. They are not to be trusted!

JohnG
02-21-2010, 03:54 PM
It's not the media, it's the PPP. They're reliable. Though they cannot predict the future; Medina clearly has "faded" over the last 10 days. But that doesn't mean she can't stage a comeback.

devil21
02-21-2010, 04:46 PM
It's not the media, it's the PPP. They're reliable. Though they cannot predict the future; Medina clearly has "faded" over the last 10 days. But that doesn't mean she can't stage a comeback.

Sorry but pollsters are part of the media, reliable or not.

My point was that listening to any of these outlets proclaiming anything one way or the other is misguided since we know VERY well how low the experts will stoop in their attempts to keep Medina down. No one should be paying any attention to this stuff, just keep doing what has worked all along.

shane2
02-21-2010, 05:06 PM
Are they polling Democrats and Independents because they are voting for Debra too.

Talking to poll workers Tuesday, when I voted, more Democrats are
asking for Republican ballots, as you can vote as either here in Texas
primaries. I'd also heard the same from others around the state, too.

What's going on here is Democrats know their likely Demo candidate
is gonna lose to whoever the Republicans put up and they really hate
Gov Perry. Anybody is better than 4 more years of www.slickrickperry.com.

Most of those democrats, IMO, will thus vote for Medina over KBH,
as KBH is vocally supported by the Bush's down here and Medina has
been rising in polls while KBH has been dropping, too. Bottom Line;
Either Perry or KBH mean more of the same entrenched establishment
Republican rule in Texas, and they will eagerly vote against that and
especially to tweak them with supporting a non-establishment outsider.

Some Demos will also dream that a Medina running against the Demo
candidate might somehow give them some little better hope of a win.

That Beck slammed Medina, and they really hate Beck a lot, too, also
encourages them to get behind and support Medina, too. Also, Beck is
still ranting on about Medina daily, looking more un-fair all the time.

We all may need to thank Beck for getting the Demo's behind her to
put her over the top in the Republican primary!! That'd be a hoot!!

- Shane

libertybrewcity
02-21-2010, 05:37 PM
I want to be optimistic. I really think that Beck's interview took away most of Medina's momentum, but it is not too late to pick it up again. Her website says she has raised 750k. I don't know how much of that she has left, but if she has enough to do a statewide ad buy either on the radio or tv, she could regain some of her lost votes and more. For the out of state people, we can flood the internet and youtube videos as well as talk to friends and family in Texas. Instaters can do the same and go door to door or whatever the campaign needs. Medina can push for that run off! I really think that is a possibility.

lynnf
02-21-2010, 05:45 PM
Talking to poll workers Tuesday, when I voted, more Democrats are
asking for Republican ballots, as you can vote as either here in Texas
primaries. I'd also heard the same from others around the state, too.

What's going on here is Democrats know their likely Demo candidate
is gonna lose to whoever the Republicans put up and they really hate
Gov Perry. Anybody is better than 4 more years of www.slickrickperry.com.

Most of those democrats, IMO, will thus vote for Medina over KBH,
as KBH is vocally supported by the Bush's down here and Medina has
been rising in polls while KBH has been dropping, too. Bottom Line;
Either Perry or KBH mean more of the same entrenched establishment
Republican rule in Texas, and they will eagerly vote against that and
especially to tweak them with supporting a non-establishment outsider.

Some Demos will also dream that a Medina running against the Demo
candidate might somehow give them some little better hope of a win.

That Beck slammed Medina, and they really hate Beck a lot, too, also
encourages them to get behind and support Medina, too. Also, Beck is
still ranting on about Medina daily, looking more un-fair all the time.

We all may need to thank Beck for getting the Demo's behind her to
put her over the top in the Republican primary!! That'd be a hoot!!

- Shane

you said:
We all may need to thank Beck for getting the Demo's behind her to
put her over the top in the Republican primary!! That'd be a hoot!!


it would be a hoot -- let's all get our "tank u's" ready for Beck in case we
need them

http://www.worldwar2aces.com/kingtiger17t.jpg + U BECK!

purplechoe
02-22-2010, 07:52 AM
That's one thing I have noticed with this movement that irritates me - you're always making excuses when things aren't going your way, and you refuse to be consistent.

Here's the facts: The majority of the americans don't agree with you completely. You want to start a fight with them and call them all sorts of names, go ahead, but then "President Paul" will remain a dream forever and ever.

Look over at the Rand forum, and you'll see everyone mocking Johnson for poor showing. Johnson is EXACTLY where Medina was just two months ago. Do you want to bring a new climate to politics? Or do you want to be like that pig in "Animal farm", who started a revolution but then became an oppressor himself?

Think about it.

/John

I'm trying to keep people honest and call them out on their BS. Glenn Beck has punched us below the belt twice now, both times just before the crucial primaries when we are gaining momentum.

You're never gonna get anywhere if you try to place nice with people that are trying to kneecap you...

I don't visit the Rand forum much... but that IS disappointing... :o

RonPaulFanInGA
02-22-2010, 08:11 AM
Look over at the Rand forum, and you'll see everyone mocking Johnson for poor showing. Johnson is EXACTLY where Medina was just two months ago. Do you want to bring a new climate to politics? Or do you want to be like that pig in "Animal farm", who started a revolution but then became an oppressor himself?

:rolleyes:

People can't say anything negative about a neocon bomb-thrower who spends all his time attacking Rand Paul and completely ignoring Grayson? It's funny that the guy is blowing through his life savings and polling 2% in every independent poll.

Why is it that 2% Johnson can be in the debates but Gurley Martin and John Stephenson cannot?

Anyway: get off your damn high-horse.

itshappening
02-22-2010, 11:28 AM
Johnson has raised like 20k, Medina is a different story. she has raised money and has visible support

Nathan Hale
02-22-2010, 01:29 PM
Yeah it's also very disheartening to hear on the Rand forums how they want to prevent Bill Johnson from participating in the debates, you don't have to agree with the guy but I'm sure we all can see that the more candidates the better... for Freedom.

The best thing for freedom is to elect Rand Paul in that race. Yeah, I'd like to see bigger fields in these debates, but the benefit of getting Johnson booted from the debates outweighs the moral hazard, especially since it's likely that Johnson is still polling in the very low single digits.

GunnyFreedom
02-22-2010, 01:35 PM
The best thing for freedom is to elect Rand Paul in that race. Yeah, I'd like to see bigger fields in these debates, but the benefit of getting Johnson booted from the debates outweighs the moral hazard, especially since it's likely that Johnson is still polling in the very low single digits.

That's what Fox said about Ron Paul..... Are we really becoming Fox? :mad:

TheTyke
02-22-2010, 01:36 PM
Johnson is there to split the anti-establishment vote... they are working carefully to do this, by pushing him at tea parties and state sovereignty rallies (even though he doesn't really believe in state's rights - but they don't say that there) Although there are several other candidates with similar low poll numbers to him, they are excluded from the debates. It should be all of them if you're gonna include the ones with polling almost nothing.

dannno
02-22-2010, 01:45 PM
That's what Fox said about Ron Paul..... Are we really becoming Fox? :mad:

Well Bohnson is a psy-op and the only reason he is running is to aid in Trayson's negative campaign against Paul. The only thing he is doing is taking away valuable talking time so that Rand can clarify his positions better against their constant attacks.

EDIT: Why are we talking about Rand and Bohson in this thread :confused:

Personally I'd like the thread to disappear *poof* ;)

jmdrake
02-22-2010, 02:42 PM
:rolleyes:

People can't say anything negative about a neocon bomb-thrower who spends all his time attacking Rand Paul and completely ignoring Grayson? It's funny that the guy is blowing through his life savings and polling 2% in every independent poll.

Why is it that 2% Johnson can be in the debates but Gurley Martin and John Stephenson cannot?

Anyway: get off your damn high-horse.

This. I'm not for "booting" Johson. I'm for adding Gurley Martin. You've got to love a guy with a funny name who won't accept donations over $50.00 and has his birth certificate posted on his campaign website. His intent to file is a hoot!

jmdrake
02-22-2010, 02:46 PM
Lol I'm sorry but a couple of weeks ago we were praising PPP's accuracy and cheering for the 24% now we are making excuses. Enough with the excuses, she fell behind, now go make up for it by spreading her message. Stop with the damn excuses.

I think the point is that if the poll isn't including dems and independents it might not show the whole story. That and if people get discouraged by a poll that hasn't even been released it might make the poll a self fulfilling prophecy. Best case scenario Medina has someone doing early voting exit polls. But then again if she had it, then it might not be smart to release it. If the dems are waging a "stealth war" against Perry there's no reason to tip him off to that fact.

undergroundrr
02-22-2010, 03:22 PM
I'm thrilled with the thread re-title. Thanks.

Epic
02-22-2010, 03:27 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/texas-poll-preview.html


Debra Medina actually leads the race with people who think she's not a truther- with 33% to 32% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 29% for Rick Perry. But with voters who think she is a truther, or that she might be, she gets only 7% to 51% for Perry and 30% for Hutchison. What portion of the electorate do each of those groups comprise? We'll tell you tomorrow.

If 20% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 33
Hutchison: 32
Medina: 28

If 30% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 36
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 25

If 40% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 38
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 23

If 50% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 40
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 20

I think we will see Medina in the low 20s in this poll.

libertybrewcity
02-22-2010, 04:04 PM
Who knows, Medina could be down, but the other candidates could also be down. I am guessing an increase in the undecided voters.

rp08orbust
02-22-2010, 04:06 PM
Ugh, this is torture thinking she'd be in the LEAD if she had given a simple "No" (or if Glenn Beck were not a POS back-stabber).

RonPaulFanInGA
02-22-2010, 04:20 PM
Debra Medina actually leads the race with people who think she's not a truther- with 33% to 32% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 29% for Rick Perry. But with voters who think she is a truther, or that she might be, she gets only 7% to 51% for Perry and 30% for Hutchison. What portion of the electorate do each of those groups comprise? We'll tell you tomorrow.

Ouch! She really shot herself in the foot big-time by not just simply saying "hell no."

Weren't there some truthers here who said being a truther helps ones' electoral chances? :rolleyes:

TCE
02-22-2010, 04:28 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/texas-poll-preview.html



If 20% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 33
Hutchison: 32
Medina: 28

If 30% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 36
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 25

If 40% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 38
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 23

If 50% of people think she's a truther (or might be), we have:

Perry: 40
Hutchison: 31
Medina: 20

I think we will see Medina in the low 20s in this poll.

You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens. She had a nice debate bounce, but that's all it was.

undergroundrr
02-22-2010, 04:37 PM
You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens.

[EDIT for misread] I thought Epic's speculation was quoted from PPP.

I would agree that high teens is a realistic result for this poll. But count me among those who think that there are too many unknown factors in this completely unusual election for any pollster to account for.

CoreyBowen999
02-22-2010, 04:47 PM
guys Im going to be optimistic on this one. Today I woke up in my town of 60,000 with signs all over it of Medina. Id say over 50 signs were strategically placed all over. Her name recognitian is up, shes surging, and she CAN prevail. Believe guys.

John Taylor
02-22-2010, 05:09 PM
The best thing for freedom is to elect Rand Paul in that race. Yeah, I'd like to see bigger fields in these debates, but the benefit of getting Johnson booted from the debates outweighs the moral hazard, especially since it's likely that Johnson is still polling in the very low single digits.

Nathan, you're way off base. The more viable Johnson is, the more trouble for Rand. If you have two outsider candidates, and one with establishment backing, it's a done deal, Trey wins.

Galileo Galilei
02-22-2010, 05:58 PM
You are incredibly optimistic. I am thinking mid to high teens. She had a nice debate bounce, but that's all it was.

Remember, she had only one poll above 20%. She was at 18.6% in the realclearpolitics poll average.

If Perry and Bailout started running positive ads and stopped attacking each other, that will hurt medina's poll numbers.

TexFootballMom
02-22-2010, 08:58 PM
Let me put this question to yall if I may.

If Beck lost 500,000 (out of what? 3 million?) viewers after the in famous interview - I realize those were not all Texans but....

that's a lot of pissed off Texans - you think?

How would you relate this to the poll - the one no one has seen yet?

jmdrake
02-22-2010, 09:13 PM
Ouch! She really shot herself in the foot big-time by not just simply saying "hell no."

Weren't there some truthers here who said being a truther helps ones' electoral chances? :rolleyes:

I've never seen any truthers say that. That I think a lot are reading more into this poll that's actually there. Medina was never ahead in this race. It's likely that a lot of people who were not going to vote for her anyway are in the "think she's a truther" category. And since she's now firmly denied being a truther, most of her supporters naturally fit in the "She's not a truther" category.

That said, I've never seen a poling operation dribble out news the way PPP is doing.

FreeTexan68
02-22-2010, 10:48 PM
There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

revolutionary8
02-22-2010, 11:33 PM
There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.


Welcome!

Trust is HUGE. Esp. for a TEXAN.
From all I have seen, it takes em' a while to "turn", but when they do, watch the f out. :)

Nathan Hale
02-23-2010, 07:05 AM
That's what Fox said about Ron Paul..... Are we really becoming Fox? :mad:

I'm not talking about morality. I'm talking about strategy. Yeah, morally everybody should be in the debate. But strategically, it benefits Rand Paul to eliminate Johnson from contention.

Nathan Hale
02-23-2010, 07:07 AM
Nathan, you're way off base. The more viable Johnson is, the more trouble for Rand. If you have two outsider candidates, and one with establishment backing, it's a done deal, Trey wins.

Not sure why you're saying I'm way off base, as every other word of your post agrees with me. My point was that while it's morally nice to have open debates with as many candidates as possible, it's in Rand's interest strategically to remove Johnson as a viable candidate from the race, thereby ending the potential vote split between them.

james1906
02-23-2010, 08:00 AM
There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

Awesome!

We need more Dems and Inds to get out and vote against politics as usual from both sides of the aisle.

Epic
02-23-2010, 09:54 AM
There are also some big wild cards in this election. I voted today for Debra even though I'm fairly progressive on social issues and I know she isn't. The main reason for my vote is that I'm more concerned about Liberty than being a liberal. I also trust her, at least MUCH MORE than those other two, to not force her beliefs on me and allow the will of the people to rule.

Welcome, thanks for joining the forum. Debra does believe in drug decrim, even if she can't really say too much about it, cause of the GOP electorate.

rp08orbust
02-23-2010, 09:58 AM
Update: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=232970

John Taylor
02-23-2010, 10:30 AM
I've never seen any truthers say that. That I think a lot are reading more into this poll that's actually there. Medina was never ahead in this race. It's likely that a lot of people who were not going to vote for her anyway are in the "think she's a truther" category. And since she's now firmly denied being a truther, most of her supporters naturally fit in the "She's not a truther" category.

That said, I've never seen a poling operation dribble out news the way PPP is doing.

Medina is not in bad shape, she is within striking distance if she can just increase her support by a few percentage points...