PDA

View Full Version : No new polls since the Beck incident....




Galileo Galilei
02-18-2010, 04:10 PM
No new polls since the Beck 9/11 incident....

.... so much for the bullshit that it hurt her in the polls!

If her poll numbers had really gone down, a new poll would be out by now.

The reality is that the vast majority have questions about 9/11, even if they don't think it was a conspiracy. And 9/11 has nothing to do with a state election in Texas, as Deb pointed out in the Beck interview and several times later.

Beck, Perry, Bailout Hutchison, the Dallas Morning News, Dave Weigel, Fox News, Clear Channel, Realclearpolitics, and Viacom can all take a long walk on a short pier!!



:p

lupester
02-18-2010, 04:37 PM
We are seeing up to 28% of voters that have never voted in a primary in our county....meaning.....the polls don't mean crap anymore. Those polls only call republican voters (people who voted in the republican primary before)....so the polls would have a 28% margin of error at least, which would mean they are worthless.

Dustancostine
02-18-2010, 04:38 PM
That is what is being seen across the state about 1/3 new voters.

dannno
02-18-2010, 04:41 PM
That is what is being seen across the state about 1/3 new voters.

I hope they're real..then they're mostly ours.. otherwise the establishment just sent truckloads of peeps down to support Perry..

Galileo Galilei
02-18-2010, 05:01 PM
We are seeing up to 28% of voters that have never voted in a primary in our county....meaning.....the polls don't mean crap anymore. Those polls only call republican voters (people who voted in the republican primary before)....so the polls would have a 28% margin of error at least, which would mean they are worthless.

That's a good point.

There are several other reason to believe medina can move up in the polls:

* Almost all of Medina's support is "strongly approve" support, while Perry and Bailout are about 50-50 with "strongly approve" and "moderately approve". Medina has stronger support among those who say they will vote for her, and can pick up new voters from those who already like her, and is less likely to lose support she already has.

* most voters understand she need only finish second, so she is less likely to have voters bail from "wasted voter syndrome".

* Medina has lower "unfavorable" ratings and higher "undecided" ratings than Perry or Bailout, so she has a better chance to pick up new voters from these ranks.

* Medina has had a relative fundraising boom that can only help her chances.

* Medina has had a sharp upswing in media interviews and TV interviews.

Arklatex
02-18-2010, 05:57 PM
I just ordered a 4 foot Medina sign from her online store!

Galileo Galilei
02-18-2010, 06:07 PM
Medina's stock at www.intrade.com has inched up a few points since last week.

She was at 11 and is now at 15.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Galileo Galilei
02-19-2010, 03:14 PM
Its over a week now, AND STILL NO NEW POLLS!

Where R they MSM "experts"?

tmosley
02-19-2010, 03:19 PM
The first day turnout here was double our last primary, and THAT WAS A NATIONAL ELECTION YEAR.

low preference guy
02-19-2010, 03:25 PM
..

Galileo Galilei
02-19-2010, 03:53 PM
So does high turnout help or hurt Medina? We already knew the turnout would be high. I think a lot of new voters helps Medina.

tmosley
02-19-2010, 03:59 PM
So does high turnout help or hurt Medina? We already knew the turnout would be high. I think a lot of new voters helps Medina.

That's what I think. I don't think the establishment is turning out huge percentages of new voters. I think 90+% of the new voters are gong to Medina.

Draco33
02-19-2010, 05:41 PM
That's what I think. I don't think the establishment is turning out huge percentages of new voters. I think 90+% of the new voters are gong to Medina.

Or it is the democrats showing up to vote for Kay since they know Bill White is a lock in his primary.

JohnG
02-19-2010, 06:34 PM
The next poll will probably be out on monday. PPP is doing one this weekend, so I guess they will publish it monday.

Maybe they can give some clues about it on sunday already? :) They do that sometimes on the blog.

CaseyJones
02-19-2010, 06:37 PM
The next poll will probably be out on monday. PPP is doing one this weekend, so I guess they will publish it monday.

Maybe they can give some clues about it on sunday already? :) They do that sometimes on the blog.

they are?

JohnG
02-19-2010, 06:38 PM
Didn't they write that, last time they polled? That they would do one each weekend until the primary, as long as it looks like Medina has a chance (which she has)?

JohnG
02-19-2010, 06:40 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions.html

There you got it.

CaseyJones
02-19-2010, 06:43 PM
cool thanks

Number19
02-19-2010, 08:47 PM
For Brazoria county, the Tuesday early voting (for both parties) was about half what it was in 2008, 957 vs 1949. But it was about twice what it was in 2006, the last gubernatorial year, which had 568 voters. Don't have numbers for previous years, but for the three days, Tues thru Thurs, there were 2667 Republican votes, with only 398 Democrat votes. This trend will probably hold up state wide.

RCA
02-20-2010, 12:46 AM
Every time the establishment attacks 9/11 truthers they open a few more eyes, so I say keep on attacking!

devil21
02-20-2010, 01:42 AM
Do they not do any exit polling for early voters?

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:08 PM
Sorry guys, got some bad news: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions-on-where-to-poll.html

Early indicators (note that their early) is that medina is fading they say :(

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:10 PM
Oh, and another thing: Don't tell them to poll texas next week. They will do that anyway.

rp08orbust
02-20-2010, 01:13 PM
Sorry guys, got some bad news: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions-on-where-to-poll.html

Early indicators (note that their early) is that medina is fading they say :(

:(

Galileo Galilei
02-20-2010, 01:15 PM
Sorry guys, got some bad news: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions-on-where-to-poll.html

Early indicators (note that their early) is that medina is fading they say :(

We'll see. If she was really fading, a poll would be out by now.

rp08orbust
02-20-2010, 01:17 PM
We'll see. If she was really fading, a poll would be out by now.

Not fading isn't good enough. She needs to keep surging.

Galileo Galilei
02-20-2010, 01:23 PM
Not fading isn't good enough. She needs to keep surging.

She is statistically tied with Bailout in at least two polls. She only needs a marginal increase.

rp08orbust
02-20-2010, 01:27 PM
She is statistically tied with Bailout in at least two polls. She only needs a marginal increase.

She needs more than 25% to make the run-off. (She would squeak in with Perry at 50% - 1, KBH at 25%, and Debra at 25% + 1. ) The highest Debra has polled so far is 24%.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:30 PM
PPP is a good company, unfortunately. If Medina is fading there, maybe she is fading. Or has been at least. Need to create some headlines now. Seriously, many people didn't even start to look into the race until really early. First thing they heard about Medina was that she's a truther (which she is not). New headlines which will be read not only by political junkies is needed, and quickly.

/John

Agorism
02-20-2010, 01:31 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/taking-suggestions-on-where-to-poll.html

PPP claims Medina is a fading a bit.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 01:32 PM
Yes Agorism, I just wrote that.

Galileo Galilei
02-20-2010, 01:47 PM
Numbers from the dailykos poll:

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/TX/444

Very Favorable

Medina 20
Bailout 17
Perry 16

Very Favorable + Favorable

Medina 47
Bailout 52
Perry 50

Poll Number

Medina 17
Bailout 30
Perry 42

No Opinion

Medina 18
Bailout 11
Perry 5

Unfavorables Total

Medina 35
Bailout 37
Perry 45

It looks like there are a lot of voters who like Medina, and don't like Perry & Bailout, who have not committed to voting for Medina yet.

Koz
02-20-2010, 02:04 PM
I think after the Beck thing it took the wind out of Debra's sails.

I hope she makes it into a run off, but she totally screwed up that interview.

She needs some good press somehow in the final days of the campaign.

JohnG
02-20-2010, 02:06 PM
Yeah. As I said, say something that will create headlines. Be a bit populistic if necessary. Many people didn't get a good first time impression of Medina.

Galileo Galilei
02-20-2010, 02:16 PM
I think after the Beck thing it took the wind out of Debra's sails.

I hope she makes it into a run off, but she totally screwed up that interview.

She needs some good press somehow in the final days of the campaign.

She needs about 30% to make the runoff.

Here are more polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/tx/texas_governor_republican_primary-1082.html#polls

Humblecowboy
02-20-2010, 09:52 PM
I don't post here much but has anybody seen this about Glenn Beak the Neo Lap Dog?

http://www.infowars.com/sarah-palin-911-truther-controversy-makes-hypocrite-of-glenn-beck/

I'm not giving up on her yet.

tpreitzel
02-20-2010, 10:00 PM
I hope she makes it into a run off, but she totally screwed up that interview.


Nonsense regardless how many times you repeat it. Debra didn't screw-up anything although she's been pressured by recent interviewers to admit she made a "mistake". ;) IF and it's a big IF at this point, Debra doesn't force a run-off due to Beck's shenanigans, the fault won't be Debra's, but the voters who allowed themselves to be swayed by a charlatan. Speaking the truth is NEVER wrong even if punishment follows from ill-informed and duped voters. In the end, all Texans lose for not electing a superb candidate.

Galileo Galilei
02-22-2010, 12:30 PM
Is there still not a post-Beck poll?

rp08orbust
02-22-2010, 12:31 PM
Is there still not a post-Beck poll?

PPP has completed a post-Beck poll but hasn't released the results yet. They've only hinted that "Medina is fading".

lupester
02-22-2010, 12:56 PM
Again....if there are 28% people who are voting that have never voted in a primary before then those people could not be called by the poll takers. You have to vote in a primary to be considered Republican or Democrat. The poll takers are calling people who have voted in the primarys before. This whole thing is up in the air.