Graphs of Q4 fundraising activity.

[chowda]

Some of you may have seen this already... but I've been putting these graphs together for the last week...

http://ronpaulgraphs.com

Always happy to get feedback... comments, suggestions, ideas and death threats.

I've had several people who are good at Math contact me and as a result I have several new algorithms to try out for the prediction graphs... I'm going to integrate a few of those tonight... but first I must go worship the NFL and Beer gods.

[uncloned21]

very cool.

I would love to see one that graphs the exponential growth we would need to reach the 12 million and then, in the same graph, our actual funds to date.

[Bradley in DC]

Dan,

I would at least capitalize "Ron Paul" in your description under Revolution (which *I* would write as rEVOLution, but opinions on that differ greatly ;) ).

Beyond that, I'm not sure about the whole prediction analysis approach, but I'm not going to start a feeding frenzy. Thanks for your support for Dr. Paul! :)

[RonPaulCult]

Dude that is AWESOME

[steph3n]

I think far more than 5 million will be raised as the word gets out that not only is Ron Paul a viable candidate, but the best candidate!

[chowda]

very cool.

I would love to see one that graphs the exponential growth we would need to reach the 12 million and then, in the same graph, our actual funds to date.

Thanks! I currently have a graph with the linear projection curve required to get us to 12 million... I am going to try some new stuff, including exponential graphs tonight... If it comes out good... you should see it in the next day or so.

[chowda]

Dan,

I would at least capitalize "Ron Paul" in your description under Revolution (which *I* would write as rEVOLution, but opinions on that differ greatly ;) ).

Beyond that, I'm not sure about the whole prediction analysis approach, but I'm not going to start a feeding frenzy. Thanks for your support for Dr. Paul! :)

thanks, bradley!

capitalization done! I'm going to stick with my Revolution caps for now :)

The prediction curve has been a source of some disagreement... I'm aware that it's less than perfect... it's all under constant refinement and hopefully as we get more data and more input from Math/Statistics folks, it will evolve into something we can all agree is useful and interesting.

Anyone can feel free to email me if they think they have a better way to do something... I'm learning all this stuff as I go.

[chowda]

I think far more than 5 million will be raised as the word gets out that not only is Ron Paul a viable candidate, but the best candidate!

Absolutely! I'm positive we'll raise well over 5 million as the growth may not be exponential, but it's certainly better than linear. In just 5 days we've gone from a $2 millionish projection to a $5millionish projection... another week or two will give us even more.

[TooConservative]

Great, great page.

You might draw some interest from the media on that. Easily consumable data for them.

[Original_Intent]

That is awesome! I also think the fact that we are on course to raise 5.5 million for the quarter is great considering that we just came off the big push at the end of Q3. I have no doubt that we will beat that substantially, and believe that the 12million is attainable!

Thanks for putting all that info together - I love stuff like this!

[walt]

Some of you may have seen this already... but I've been putting these graphs together for the last week...

http://splat.chowda.net/fundraiser/

Always happy to get feedback... comments, suggestions, ideas and death threats.

I've had several people who are good at Math contact me and as a result I have several new algorithms to try out for the prediction graphs... I'm going to integrate a few of those tonight... but first I must go worship the NFL and Beer gods.

That is awesome.

Could you please add links to these resources on your site?

these great resources need to be on page 1
http://www.ronpaullibrary.org/
http://dailypaul.com/
http://www.ronpaulaudio.com/

need to be higher on page 1
www.myspace.com/ronpaul2008 raise friend count on techpresident.com
www.youtube.com/profile?user=RonPaul2008dotcom raise view count up on techpresident.com
blog.ronpaul2008.com

[chowda]

That is awesome.

Could you please add links to these resources on your site?


Thanks!

Done.

[chowda]

I added a link to a "full" list of donors...

I'll pretty it up and add some fancy stuff after I go watch the Patriots whoop some butt :)

[Johnnybags]

bump

[pyrazole2]

good stuff...bump

[Ninja Homer]

Some of you may have seen this already... but I've been putting these graphs together for the last week...

http://splat.chowda.net/fundraiser/

Always happy to get feedback... comments, suggestions, ideas and death threats.

I've had several people who are good at Math contact me and as a result I have several new algorithms to try out for the prediction graphs... I'm going to integrate a few of those tonight... but first I must go worship the NFL and Beer gods.

Very nice!

I'd like to do a simple little low-bandwidth widget that just grabs the donation total and recent donation names at the time of page load and displays them. What's the url to grab that info? For example, it used to be ronpaul2008.com/webservices/REST/donation-total?format=nvp

Thanks!

[Chester Copperpot]

Some of you may have seen this already... but I've been putting these graphs together for the last week...

http://splat.chowda.net/fundraiser/

Always happy to get feedback... comments, suggestions, ideas and death threats.

I've had several people who are good at Math contact me and as a result I have several new algorithms to try out for the prediction graphs... I'm going to integrate a few of those tonight... but first I must go worship the NFL and Beer gods.

now sure how the hourly and daily data is working or showing there.... doesnt seeem to match up from what i see

[chowda]

Very nice!

I'd like to do a simple little low-bandwidth widget that just grabs the donation total and recent donation names at the time of page load and displays them. What's the url to grab that info? For example, it used to be ronpaul2008.com/webservices/REST/donation-total?format=nvp

Thanks!

it's here now:

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/webservices/REST/fundraiser?name=liberty

[chowda]

now sure how the hourly and daily data is working or showing there.... doesnt seeem to match up from what i see

I'm not sure what you mean...

[Ninja Homer]

it's here now:

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/webservices/REST/fundraiser?name=liberty

Thanks!

[chowda]

now sure how the hourly and daily data is working or showing there.... doesnt seeem to match up from what i see

I think I get you now... there is something funky going on there... i'm looking at it.

[ghemminger]

Chowda - once you get this finely tuned - let's put a thread to decimnate this info - it might be worth a couple million if the MSM picks up on it as a resourse -

Sales pitch would be - Fundraising - the internet changes everything!

[jonahtrainer]

Chowda - once you get this finely tuned - let's put a thread to decimnate this info - it might be worth a couple million if the MSM picks up on it as a resourse -

Sales pitch would be - Fundraising - the internet changes everything!

This site is awesome! Great job! I agree, the old media would love this type of 24/7 transparent accounting.

[Corydoras]

Grateful to you for the obvious work and precision you've put into this.

[chowda]

Chowda - once you get this finely tuned - let's put a thread to decimnate this info - it might be worth a couple million if the MSM picks up on it as a resourse -

Sales pitch would be - Fundraising - the internet changes everything!

Well... it's a hobby project so I don't know if it will ever be finely tuned... or if it is, how I would tell :)

If there is something that needs to be done to make it more media friendly.. I'm happy to give it a try.

[ghemminger]

I just meant if it is accurate - if it's good - let's get this out to the Ron Paul Blogs!

Hopefully the MSM will pick this up!

[chowda]

I just meant if it is accurate - if it's good - let's get this out to the Ron Paul Blogs!

Hopefully the MSM will pick this up!

I think it's accurate... I've tried pretty hard to make things consistent... and now the process is running on a dedicated server every 3 minutes... The data will really start to fill out over the next few days.

feel free to spread it around.

[ronpaulyourmom]

chowda I posted a thread with your charts a few days ago and people loved it. Keep it up, I visit this site a few times a week.

[chowda]

chowda I posted a thread with your charts a few days ago and people loved it. Keep it up, I visit this site a few times a week.

thanks! I just saw that! pretty cool.

I have been doing some cleanup... now that there is more than one page I have put the navigation at the top and moved the external links to where the navigation used to be (just below the widget)

I've moved some graphs that were funky to an "experimental" page while I resolve the problems and acquire more data.

I've added a "chipin" page where fundraisers hosted on chipin.com can be posted... if anyone has any ideas for that page, send them along.

[chowda]

We're killing yesterday AND last week in total donations so far... I hope this is the start of a week over week increase!

[ghemminger]

post the html code or what ever it is to cut and past and we can get it to Daily Paul Lew Rockwell, etc.....

[wbbgjr]

Excellent website but it just goes to show we need to double our efforts.

[chowda]

post the html code or what ever it is to cut and past and we can get it to Daily Paul Lew Rockwell, etc.....

I'm not sure what you mean by that... something other than a link?

http://ronpaulgraphs.com

[Razmear]

Chowda,
Have you captured any spikes that look like they are from the offline fund
raising events? I'm curious if they are adding those into the Statue totals.

eb

[chowda]

Chowda,
Have you captured any spikes that look like they are from the offline fund
raising events? I'm curious if they are adding those into the Statue totals.

eb

I don't think so... as far as I know this total is for online donations only... but that's mostly speculation.

[chowda]

new graphs showing donors today vs yesterday and donors last week vs. this week.

[chowda]

I think I've got the hourly average donors/total graphs working correctly now, so they are back on the front page.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com

[rdenner]

This could BE HUGE... NO BODY has ever done something like this. You(and the campaign) are breaking new ground here.

I STRONGLY suggest you get a top level domain name to link to this data.

RONPAULDATA.COM or something like that. Chowda in the name sounds kinda wierd.

This kind of original thinking is what is getting us the best coverage in the MSM media.

Man if you could make the data actually REAL time using a java plug in or something. Actually seeing each doner scroll by and the graphs moving up and down like a stereo amplifier.

You are on to something huge here my friend.

This is transparency like no one has ever seen in a political campaign..

GOOD LUCK

Robert

[kylejack]

Chowda, I just want to thank you for all your hard work. I've been watching the charts for the past several days incessantly. This level of transparency from the campaign is incredible indeed. I'm surprised techpresident.com is not running daily articles on Ron Paul's innovations.

[Johnnybags]

I see the graph is moving nicely once in a while with larger donations? Perhaps some of the bigger backers are finally think I canning it? I hope it is not including private donations.

[chowda]

This could BE HUGE... NO BODY has ever done something like this. You(and the campaign) are breaking new ground here.

I STRONGLY suggest you get a top level domain name to link to this data.

RONPAULDATA.COM or something like that. Chowda in the name sounds kinda wierd.


I bought a domain... just waiting for the DNS crap to filter through and some help to get the stupid apache config right... should happen this week. I won't share the domain until it's all ready.. but ronpaulstats.com and ronpauldata.com were both taken.



This kind of original thinking is what is getting us the best coverage in the MSM media.

Man if you could make the data actually REAL time using a java plug in or something. Actually seeing each doner scroll by and the graphs moving up and down like a stereo amplifier.

You are on to something huge here my friend.

This is transparency like no one has ever seen in a political campaign..


thanks man! I'm pretty excited about it myself :)

I don't think it's going to get much more realtime than it currently is.. there are bandwidth concerns as well as the time it takes me to release a new idea... the way I'm doing things right now, I can have a new idea and have it deployed in minutes... If I went to an applet or something else I'm not as familiar with it would really increase the time and effort involved in evolving the site.

That said... I may add some AJAX flavored graphs that do update themselves every minute or so... that wouldn't be a challenge.

dan

[chowda]

Chowda, I just want to thank you for all your hard work. I've been watching the charts for the past several days incessantly. This level of transparency from the campaign is incredible indeed. I'm surprised techpresident.com is not running daily articles on Ron Paul's innovations.

Thanks Kyle! It's very exciting... This is clearly the most exciting and personally involving American political campaign, ever.

techpresident is literally run by neocons... the founder used to work on the bush campaign or something... but they basically hate Ron Paul and go out of their way to ignore him, even when he's in the top 3 in nearly every stat they track... I don't really go there anymore... I plan on integrating some of that data into my site over the coming months.

[ghemminger]

Your on my Desktop - **Applause**
Once I figure all your numbers out - I will share them on the show!

[chowda]

I see the graph is moving nicely once in a while with larger donations? Perhaps some of the bigger backers are finally think I canning it? I hope it is not including private donations.

Yeah... every so often you see a $2k jump between updates... I love those.

As far as I know this data ONLY includes online donations... I have not heard if they're going to save the offline stuff for the end of the quarter or if they'll be adding that into the total periodically.

[Johnnybags]

the internet girl in the situation room, she will love it.

[chowda]

Your on my Desktop - **Applause**
Once I figure all your numbers out - I will share them on the show!

Thanks GHemminger!

I'm happy to answer any questions you may have. If you email me I'd be happy to share my contact info and we can chat on the phone if need be. Anything I can do to help the movement/revolution/campaign.

[chowda]

the internet girl in the situation room, she will love it.

Feel free! or send me the contact info and I will... good idea.

[chowda]

ok... this is working for me now...

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/

everyone else?

[steph3n]

really well :)


ok... this is working for me now...

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/

everyone else?

[kylejack]

ok... this is working for me now...

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/

everyone else?

Yes, it looks like DNS has propagated. How sturdy is your box? Dedi or shared?

[chowda]

Yes, it looks like DNS has propagated. How sturdy is your box? Dedi or shared?

it's all my box.... it's got a couple other things on it but they are very low traffic... so it's basically dedicated to this cause for now.

[kylejack]

Any bandwidth or CPU concerns to worry about? Because I'm about to start promoting it far and wide. :D

[chowda]

Any bandwidth or CPU concerns to worry about? Because I'm about to start promoting it far and wide. :D

I hope not.... never really stressed it before... :)

thanks! and good luck :)

[chowda]

The numbers are really starting to pick up some steam tonight!

[Brendan Wenzel]

Awesome graphs bro. Thanks for your work!

[klamath]

Great job. Maybe we have the next Bill Gates on the campaign.

[Pete]

These are great, Chowda! I have some requests for you:

How about a chart showing the full quarter actual vs. the prior quarter actual vs. the projected total? Another showing total donors this quarter vs. last quarter would be very interesting, too. Hopefully you can get the data.

Another idea: daily donations vs. some moving averages, such as 30-day and 90-day. These help give a feel for momentum.

Yeah, this must be online only. Look at the 'Total Raised This Week vs. Last' and you'll see that the two weeks together are pretty close to Lady Liberty's total. So if online is 70% we may be tracking towards $8 million? Not too shabby for the start of a quarter, plus I think offline donations are going to grow with all the appearances and news stories that started with the Q3 results.

[chowda]

These are great, Chowda! I have some requests for you:


thanks!



How about a chart showing the full quarter actual vs. the prior quarter actual vs. the projected total? Another showing total donors this quarter vs. last quarter would be very interesting, too. Hopefully you can get the data.


I only have about 5 days of data from the end of Q3 and it's not very good... and it's also during the big $1.2 million push... so I don't think it's of much value.



Another idea: daily donations vs. some moving averages, such as 30-day and 90-day. These help give a feel for momentum.


Yeah... I really want to have some graphs that take into account growth velocity in some way.. it's looking like some form of moving average might be the way to go with that. I'll be experimenting with some stuff as more data comes in... so far we've only got 8 days worth :)



Yeah, this must be online only. Look at the 'Total Raised This Week vs. Last' and you'll see that the two weeks together are pretty close to Lady Liberty's total. So if online is 70% we may be tracking towards $8 million? Not too shabby for the start of a quarter, plus I think offline donations are going to grow with all the appearances and news stories that started with the Q3 results.

It's very early... but my optimistic analysis is that we're picking up quite a bit of steam already and it's going to be a really great few months... next week will be the first paycheck of the quarter for alot of supporters so we should start it off strong.

I think the current $4.8 million projection for the quarter is very low and we'll see that really start to increase by the end of October.

[Johnnybags]

Lets get Ron in Rudys playground, the string pullers.

[Taco John]

We look on pace to have a $100,000 dollar day. I wish there was a projection graph that showed that...

[CasualApathy]

My prediction is that we make close to 3 million in the first month, 4 million next month, and that we will pick up the slack in december with a 5 million dollar push. (I am counting on you guys wishing for campaign donations for christmas!)

[Primbs]

The yellow line is hard to see on the graph. You might want to use red or blue.

[Johnnybags]

Bump- the graphs look great today.

[Pete]

Holy crap, over 1000 donors today and it's not even 8PM EST.

Looks like the public is finding Ron Paul in a big way!

The government throws all these billions around forgetting where they came from. If we should get even 0.5% of the voting public (a million people) interested in donating, we could see some HUGE numbers.



P.S. Chowda, the graph with the landmark events rules! Also, thanks for your answer to my question from yesterday.

[chowda]

I've started a blog for the graph site... you can subscribe to the RSS and get updated when I do something worth noting... and comment on those same updates.

http://ronpaulgraphs.blogspot.com/

I've already posted twice today... that won't be how I normally roll :)

[chowda]

The yellow line is hard to see on the graph. You might want to use red or blue.

I added a poll on the sidebar about this... I like the yellow, but unlike Ron Paul I will bend to the will of public opinion :)

http://ronpaulgraphs.blogspot.com/

[chowda]

changed the layout a bit... i like it better now..

added some meetup graphs

pushed the "last 6 days" graph to the front page...

more detail in my blog...

feedback welcome.

[CasualApathy]

Today sure is slow....

[chowda]

Today sure is slow....

not really.. we're going to beat every other day but yesterday and maybe the day before, I would guess... 3rd best day in the quarter so far is nothing to sneeze at :)

[yoshimaroka]

Today is just as good as Tuesday, which was higher in comparison to last week.
The average daily total last week was 50k. This Tuesday was about 65k, Wednesday was ~115k and it looks as though today will be a little more than 65k.

[kylejack]

I think we'll probably crack 75K today. There's bound to be some tapering, but it looks plenty sharp so far.