im anxious to see another primary poll

[amisspelledword]

any idea when another one is coming? that rasmussen one didnt do a primary only poll did it? i want to see if rand has maintained his lead or expanded it.

do you think it will be closer to the end of the quarter before another one is done?

[Dreamofunity]

I am as well, don't know when one is coming though.

[Thargok]

I keep hearing there may be another WHAS one soon, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[JohnG]

I'd like one too. What's your predicition?

I'd say it's probably still a +15 % lead, with Johnson gaining some, though his new voters doesn't come exclusively from Rand but just as many from Grayson (so it doesn't change much in the "main" fight).

Why would Johnson gain? Because more people know about him now. As name recognition goes up, support is more or less bound to go up as well. I'd say his probably still in the single digits though.

[BamaFanNKy]

I'd like one too. What's your predicition?

I'd say it's probably still a +15 % lead, with Johnson gaining some, though his new voters doesn't come exclusively from Rand but just as many from Grayson (so it doesn't change much in the "main" fight).

Why would Johnson gain? Because more people know about him now. As name recognition goes up, support is more or less bound to go up as well. I'd say his probably still in the single digits though.

Seriously, I'd be shocked if Johnson broke double digits. The only Johnson supporters I come across (granted I'm closed in from the population since I only travel to Somerset, Bowling Green, Maysville, Louisville, Lexington and Northern Kentucky) are online. Mucho Rand support. Trey supporters are in the closet for him. It's not popular to vote for him but, many will.

[amisspelledword]

i agree with you. even with a sarah palin endorsement i kinda doubt he will surpass the 19% lead from the last poll.

also, the debate was probably the best for johnson as far as name recognition goes. i agree that we will probably see a minor increase in his poor polling. however, rand and trey were also in the debate so his increase in name recognition may be negated by rand and trey's name recognition also. then again, how many people reading about the debate have already heard of rand & trey vs. how many people reading have heard of johnson? probably not many. so he may see a small gain just because people remember his name.

overall, i think trey will stay the same or lose traction, johnson will probably gain a little. i kinda feel like Rand could do anything. it depends on the impact of the Palin endorsement thus far and who johnson is stealing support from. i think johnson could steal support from either candidate, even though he is clearly hoping to take away from rand's supporters (which makes little sense, if you listen to his ideas and basis for them (i.e. "the owner's manual of usa").

a sarah palin & rand appearance together would be worth probably 5% in polls i'd say... pulling this out of thin air of course.

i still refuse to consider the johnson campaign a threat to Rand's. at this point johnson is still too far behind to actually win in may... as has been said over and over on here, he is probably just running to split some votes. im sure he'll "peak on election day," to borrow a phrase from grayson, but i still cant imagine him peaking at more than 10%.

notably, grayson has still done little or nothing to campaign. i still think he plans to peak on election day by running negative ads like crazy the last few weeks before the election day.

i got off on some tangents, sorry

[John Taylor]

i agree with you. even with a sarah palin endorsement i kinda doubt he will surpass the 19% lead from the last poll.

also, the debate was probably the best for johnson as far as name recognition goes. i agree that we will probably see a minor increase in his poor polling. however, rand and trey were also in the debate so his increase in name recognition may be negated by rand and trey's name recognition also. then again, how many people reading about the debate have already heard of rand & trey vs. how many people reading have heard of johnson? probably not many. so he may see a small gain just because people remember his name.

overall, i think trey will stay the same or lose traction, johnson will probably gain a little. i kinda feel like Rand could do anything. it depends on the impact of the Palin endorsement thus far and who johnson is stealing support from. i think johnson could steal support from either candidate, even though he is clearly hoping to take away from rand's supporters (which makes little sense, if you listen to his ideas and basis for them (i.e. "the owner's manual of usa").

a sarah palin & rand appearance together would be worth probably 5% in polls i'd say... pulling this out of thin air of course.

i still refuse to consider the johnson campaign a threat to Rand's. at this point johnson is still too far behind to actually win in may... as has been said over and over on here, he is probably just running to split some votes. im sure he'll "peak on election day," to borrow a phrase from grayson, but i still cant imagine him peaking at more than 10%.

notably, grayson has still done little or nothing to campaign. i still think he plans to peak on election day by running negative ads like crazy the last few weeks before the election day.

i got off on some tangents, sorry


I predict a 9 point lead over Grayson. A 44-35-7 breakdown.

[lordindra3]

Also, you have to realize Rand hasnt even truely started the real "money spending" portion of the campaign. Johnson's strategy was to start spending the little he has early on crapy non cable channels to get name recognition, but wait until Rand starts the real commercial money spending campaign?! Then you will see some of him self rising in the polls.

As far as the next debate is concerned, I say Rand is going to have to take away "zest" from Johnson. Grayson is a horrible debator, so try and neutralize Johnson from getting his 10 minutes of a attention completely. Also, we should actually be civil and not cheer for Rand if they tell us not to, HOWEVER the moment Johnson's people start pulling that crap again, we just show who the REAL favorite is and start blasting off for Rand. I believe in politics SOMETIMES you have to fight fire with fire. Its not that I am really affraid of Johnson, as a matter of fact I admire him to some degree, but his tactics and and his special farces IRKS ME SO BAD, I cant even begin to tell you how much. Because of their tactics and ruthlessness for being a Rand spoiler for no good reason, it becomes personal for me.

[John Taylor]

i still refuse to consider the johnson campaign a threat to Rand's. at this point johnson is still too far behind to actually win in may... as has been said over and over on here, he is probably just running to split some votes. im sure he'll "peak on election day," to borrow a phrase from grayson, but i still cant imagine him peaking at more than 10%.

I think you need to remember that few people are really, really dedicated to their candidate. Many people want to vote for the candidate who most closely reflects their values who has a chance of winning.

In this case, I really will be suprised if Jill gets anywhere close to 10%. I can't see 10% of voters going for someone with absolutely no chance of victory. I can see them spliting for Grayson by a 2-1 margin though, as the majority of those Jill supporters I've seen online have been all Trey fans...

That's my prediction, based on a dozen campaigns.

[John Taylor]

I cant even begin to tell you how much. Because of their tactics and ruthlessness for being a Rand spoiler for no good reason, it becomes personal for me.

Keep our eyes on the ball, and don't get sucked into their little game. The entire point of their "special forces" is to infiltrate and decimate, turning folks towards their candidate through a stealth campaign of misinformation and brutal insurgent political warfare.

[JohnG]

Also, let's not forget that sometimes candidates like Johnson gain support early in the polls, but in the end, people want to vote for someone who can win. Remember, LP usually gets about 2-3 % in the polls when they are included, but on election day they get like a half. I'm not saying people are right in voting for the winner (I personally don't think the point with voting is to vote for a winner), but that's how they do anyway.

[BamaFanNKy]

I just wonder how far ahead Gurley would of been in front of Johnson if they allowed him in the debate.

YouTube - Donovan - Hurdy Gurdy Man (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lKCUuyojDI)

[DeadheadForPaul]

I think it's going to be a 5 point lead

It's gonna light a fire under our asses

[BamaFanNKy]

I think it's going to be a 5 point lead

It's gonna light a fire under our asses

Basically Poll #s will take place of the Patriot speech.

YouTube - The PATRIOT - Patriotic speech (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Rf1XG5rA-c)

[lordindra3]

John Taylor- I really liked your two posts. Good observation and point! Just thought I would let you know.