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Number19
02-15-2010, 04:38 PM
At the website for Public Policy Polling, today ( Closed Primaries in SC? ), there is an interesting comment. This isn't a new poll, but it offers some statistics on the Independent/Crossover vote.

"...Among Republicans...Rick Perry leads with 43% to 27% for KBH and just 18% for Medina. But among Democrats and Independents planning to vote in the open primary, Medina is in first with 39% to 29% for Hutchinson and 25% for Perry...".

Using this information, I did my own analysis. I had previously read elsewhere on this forum that Independents represent about 40% of the vote in Texas. This number I weighted 25% to 15% in favor of Republican vote. The remaining 60% I weighted 33% to 27% in favor of Republican vote. Using these percentages I came up with the following overall polling percentage, showing a much tighter race, with Perry still ahead slightly and with Medina and Hutchinson tied :

Perry.............36%
Medina..........28%
Hutchinson....28%
Undecided.....8%

These number obviously are not scientific or accurate, but do indicate the trend line which is extremely favorable for the Medina campaign, and come close to the overall totals posted by PPP in their last poll.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

lynnf
02-15-2010, 05:25 PM
At the website for Public Policy Polling, today ( Closed Primaries in SC? ), there is an interesting comment. This isn't a new poll, but it offers some statistics on the Independent/Crossover vote.

"...Among Republicans...Rick Perry leads with 43% to 27% for KBH and just 18% for Medina. But among Democrats and Independents planning to vote in the open primary, Medina is in first with 39% to 29% for Hutchinson and 25% for Perry...".

Using this information, I did my own analysis. I had previously read elsewhere on this forum that Independents represent about 40% of the vote in Texas. This number I weighted 25% to 15% in favor of Republican vote. The remaining 60% I weighted 33% to 27% in favor of Republican vote. Using these percentages I came up with the following overall polling percentage, showing a much tighter race, with Perry still ahead slightly and with Medina and Hutchinson tied :

Perry.............36%
Medina..........28%
Hutchinson....28%
Undecided.....8%

These number obviously are not scientific or accurate, but do indicate the trend line which is extremely favorable for the Medina campaign, and come close to the overall totals posted by PPP in their last poll.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

wow, good work, provided your calculations are correct!

-----------------------

lynn

Ron_Paul_Knows
02-16-2010, 01:14 AM
But among Democrats and Independents planning to vote in the open primary, Medina is in first with 39% to 29% for Hutchinson and 25% for Perry...".


Nice find. That is VERY encouraging. I wonder where that poll is from.

Number19
02-16-2010, 04:45 AM
The numbers from the last PPP poll had Debra at 24%, considerably higher that the other polls which had her in the 14 - 17% range. I figure that the accuracy that PPP has become noted for is from their method of factoring in this independent vote, so I'm just guessing that these numbers were broken out of the last poll.

Looking at scheduling of both Rasmussen and PPP, we MIGHT be seeing new results from both this week, possibly today. I really want to see numbers from Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Monday.