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View Full Version : Latest poll: Hostettler outperforms Coats against Bayh




erowe1
02-11-2010, 01:21 PM
http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/2/10/IN/443

Epic
02-11-2010, 02:22 PM
DKos polls are generally unreliable.

But at least Hostettler trails by 16 instead of Coats' 20.

In the Rasmussen, Hostettler just trailed by 3.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

TCE
02-11-2010, 03:10 PM
So, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 10 points down seems about right, although Rasmussen was incredibly reliable in Massachusetts.

erowe1
02-11-2010, 03:17 PM
So, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 10 points down seems about right, although Rasmussen was incredibly reliable in Massachusetts.

Good point. The polling company that did this poll with Coats in it was Research 2000. Their MA poll showed Coakley beating Brown by 8. So in that case they favored the Dem inaccurately. They also mention here that their poll involved "interviewing" people, instead of robocalling them. That leads me to think that it would be very easy to inject bias into the poll by way of the human factor.
http://www.bluemassgroup.com/diary/18361/exclusive-bmgresearch-2000-poll-coakley-leads-4941

I would suspect, though, that if their poll was done in a way that at all favored Bayh, it's still valuable in comparing the relative ratings of Coats and Hostettler, even if it's not valuable in measuring them in absolute levels against Bayh. They both match up very similarly, with Hostettler being slightly better, which is encouraging.