What Might Happen in 2012

[Matt Collins]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/02/of-course-shes-running-for-president.html

Given the complete lack of talent among GOP ranks and their universal fear of taking on Palin supporters, it seems obvious to me she will likely be the next GOP nominee. My hope, of course, is that this a) forces what was once a serious governing party to nominate a responsible fiscal conservative in the primaries and fight back against the madness; or b) drives every last sane conservative to realize they have no choice but to back Obama; or c) that Palin so alienates the GOP elites by primary challenges that they somehow manage to quash her and she runs as a “rogue” third party George Wallace style candidate, and helps re-elect Obama by an electoral college landslide.

[erowe1]

or c) that Palin so alienates the GOP elites by primary challenges that they somehow manage to quash her and she runs as a “rogue” third party George Wallace style candidate, and helps re-elect Obama by an electoral college landslide.

He says "somehow" as though it would be unexpected that the GOP elites should get their way. But the great majority of the time they do get their way. The candidate who starts the primary season with the backing of the leaders tends to start off from the get-go with the bulk of big name endorsements and end up with the nomination. It was true of McCain, Bush 43, Dole, Bush 41, Ford, Nixon, Rockefeller and Dewey. When Reagan ran as the outsider conservative in '76 he didn't pull it off. When Goldwater beat Rockefeller, it was an anomaly. Robert Taft lost all three times, even though he got close. Coolidge only got in the WH by Harding dying in office. And Harding himself only made it by the skin of his teeth.

So if the GOP elites line up behind someone other than Palin (and they will), they'll be the ones in the advantage.

[Peace&Freedom]

How about this strategy to head off Palin:

1) Hope that Ron Paul again runs for the Republican nomination.

2) Begin a massive drive to get anti-Palin Democrats partial to Paul to switch to the GOP for the sole purpose of voting against Palin in the primaries.

3) Palin stomps over all the non-liberty contenders in the race, but Paul ends up winning the nomination with the Democrat vote help.

4) Paul can then run in the fall as a Republican with proven bi-partisan appeal (as shown by having gotten their actual votes).