Rasmussen - Medina up another 4 pts. 16%!

[undergroundrr]

h ttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_republican_primary_for_governo r

Election 2010: Texas Republican Primary for Governor
Texas GOP Primary: Perry 44%, Hutchison 29%, Medina 16%

"Incumbent Rick Perry's lead over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has grown a little bigger in the race for this year's Republican gubernatorial nomination in Texas. Tea Party activist Debra Medina also has gained ground, and her gains appear to come at the expense of Hutchison.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely Republican Primary voters in Texas finds Perry leading Hutchison 44% to 29%, with Medina at 16%. "

[Epic]

Pretty good. 13 point gap this time, down from 21 point gap last time.

All she needs to do is beat Hutchinson, and keep Perry under 50% to force the runoff.

I actually thought Medina might have been in the 18-22% range this time. But this is decent.

Medina at 20% among men, 12% among women.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/politics/entries/2010/02/02/new_poll_indicates_medina_cutt.html?cxntfid=blogs_ postcards

[libertybrewcity]

i am glad she is moving up even more but how is perry staying even!!

[Flash]

So is it possible for her to raise another 13% without another debate?


i am glad she is moving up even more but how is perry staying even!!

At least Perry is still below 50. :)

[libertybrewcity]

sorry for the double bump. In a runoff would there be another election? Or, does that mean they add up the second choices for the votes on the march 2 ballot?

[Epic]

sorry for the double bump. In a runoff would there be another election? Or, does that mean they add up the second choices for the votes on the march 2 ballot?

There is an election with the top 2 candidates, I believe.

[CaseyJones]

This is BS I have trouble believing that Perry is at 44% when everyone in Texas I have talked to say "anyone but perry"!
Also let me share a little story a friend just told me.
A local sports station "The Fan" was talking about Nolan Ryans endorsement of Kay Bailout just now. Saying over and over again how there are two candidates running for the R Nom. So my friend calls in and gets on the air. The second he mentions that there are 3 candidates he is hung up on. In the delay as he listened they had the rest of his call but cut him off before he started his thing about Medina. :mad:

[payme_rick]

The second he mentions that there are 3 candidates he is hung up on.

Typical of Sports Talk... they'll let the guest talk about their politics, then they'll comment about their politics but then they'll stop the callers short of it because they "do not want this show turning into a political-talk show"... but they'll talk about Tiger Woods' social like for 3 weeks :rolleyes:

[CaseyJones]

um no they were talking about the governors race, but as if there are only two candidates

[payme_rick]

um no they were talking about the governors race, but as if there are only two candidates

like I said, they'll comment about their politics ('their politics' meaning their views etc..., sry for not clearing that up)... but letting the callers talk about their politics in detail is something I rarely hear a sports talk host allow UNLESS: the caller's politics consist of the pro or anti political argument being presented by the hosts... if the "their politics" of the caller are something outside (which in this case would be Medina) then they usually drop the caller so that "this doesn't turn into a political talk show" AKA: go a direction they do not want their show going...

it's lame, but, it's their show and the route of the topic is usually in sports... keeping it up and tight at the 50/50 and not beyond is usually how they justify the topic as "sports-related" to the boss and themselves (egos in sports-talk are crrrrazy)...

[K466]

Good news, but there is a lot of work left to do.

[mtj458]

I'm surprised Nolan Ryan endorsed Kay. I thought he was a Ron Paul guy

[tpreitzel]

This refugee from the C4L forum needed a breath of fresh air. AAAAHHHHHHhhhhh, better air quality over here, i.e. no C4L excuses polluting the atmosphere. Go Debra! Personally, I want YOU to run for POTUS in 2012!

Medina for President 2012! :)

[Ron_Paul_Knows]

This refugee from the C4L forum needed a breath of fresh air. AAAAHHHHHHhhhhh, better air quality over here, i.e. no C4L excuses polluting the atmosphere. Go Debra! Personally, I want YOU to run for POTUS in 2012!

Medina for President 2012! :)

Stick around. There's lots of exciting things going on here! ;)

[rpindy]

This refugee from the C4L forum needed a breath of fresh air. AAAAHHHHHHhhhhh, better air quality over here, i.e. no C4L excuses polluting the atmosphere. Go Debra! Personally, I want YOU to run for POTUS in 2012!

Medina for President 2012! :)

So you mean C4L isn't supporting Medina, who is at 16% and has a legitimate chance at a win, but they will spend $350K to encourage politicians to fill out some survey and glorify a neocon in the process?

[CaseyJones]

hey take that crap to general politics we are working in here

[tpreitzel]

So you mean C4L isn't supporting Medina, who is at 16% and has a legitimate chance at a win, but they will spend $350K to encourage politicians to fill out some survey and glorify a neocon in the process?

Let's don't go any further down that potholed road here. ;) I apologize for raising the subject! ;)

Debra appears to be a great choice for Texas and the US. I want to know more about her as should the rest of the US. As charismatic as she appears to be, a close-up and personal interview would likely be very successful in raising her profile.

[The Eradicator]

I was hoping for 20, but a gain is a gain. Does anybody know Chuck Norris or Ted Nugent?

[Imperial]

This is BS I have trouble believing that Perry is at 44% when everyone in Texas I have talked to say "anyone but perry"!
Also let me share a little story a friend just told me.
A local sports station "The Fan" was talking about Nolan Ryans endorsement of Kay Bailout just now. Saying over and over again how there are two candidates running for the R Nom. So my friend calls in and gets on the air. The second he mentions that there are 3 candidates he is hung up on. In the delay as he listened they had the rest of his call but cut him off before he started his thing about Medina. :mad:

Problem is the electorate has a short memory. As soon as Perry made that secession speech, he was reposturing and winning over his base. Surprising given the major movement to the independents in 2006. I bet in the general election it would be harder to claim the motivated base like Perry is doing.

It sucks about Nolan Ryan, but the good news is I bet he endorses Medina if there is a runoff.

[The Eradicator]

I have trouble believing it as well. I haven't known anyone in years who wasn't tired of Perry.

[AmericasLastHope]

I'm surprised Nolan Ryan endorsed Kay. I thought he was a Ron Paul guy

Yep. :(

NY TIMES: "Paul had only two prominent backers: the tax activist Steve Forbes and the pitcher Nolan Ryan, Paul’s constituent and old friend, who cut a number of ads for him."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/22/magazine/22Paul-t.html?ei=5124&en=22ee37525a9fc4f5&ex=1343016000&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&pagewanted=all

[devil21]

This is BS I have trouble believing that Perry is at 44% when everyone in Texas I have talked to say "anyone but perry"!
Also let me share a little story a friend just told me.
A local sports station "The Fan" was talking about Nolan Ryans endorsement of Kay Bailout just now. Saying over and over again how there are two candidates running for the R Nom. So my friend calls in and gets on the air. The second he mentions that there are 3 candidates he is hung up on. In the delay as he listened they had the rest of his call but cut him off before he started his thing about Medina. :mad:

I think the media is going to do a replay of the tactic they used against RP right before the primaries. Just act as if he doesn't exist. No name mention, no polling numbers, no interviews or editorials, etc. Just flat out ignore and hope the majority of voters don't have a clue who she is until the primary. What your friend describes is EXACTLY the sort of stuff talk radio across the country was doing to Ron Paul in 2008.

[thasre]

I think the media is going to do a replay of the tactic they used against RP right before the primaries. Just act as if he doesn't exist. No name mention, no polling numbers, no interviews or editorials, etc. Just flat out ignore and hope the majority of voters don't have a clue who she is until the primary. What your friend describes is EXACTLY the sort of stuff talk radio across the country was doing to Ron Paul in 2008.

I disagree. In the conservative media there are some of these types, but I actually think many of the news outlets are giving increasingly more and fairer coverage of Medina, in part because I think many of them genuinely kind of like her spunkiness, and in part because I think they know she forces a run-off, which is good for business.

[ForLiberty-RonPaul]

I disagree. In the conservative media there are some of these types, but I actually think many of the news outlets are giving increasingly more and fairer coverage of Medina, in part because I think many of them genuinely kind of like her spunkiness, and in part because I think they know she forces a run-off, which is good for business.

That, and local news stations typically give more air time to all candidates. It was the national news that screwed us so badly in '08. I was quite honestly surprised with the moderators at the Belo debate. They were very tough on all the candidates. It was actually fair. Unlike Dr. Paul's appearances which were so obviously stacked against him.

[devil21]

I disagree. In the conservative media there are some of these types, but I actually think many of the news outlets are giving increasingly more and fairer coverage of Medina, in part because I think many of them genuinely kind of like her spunkiness, and in part because I think they know she forces a run-off, which is good for business.

You are entitled to your opinion and I am not from Texas so you may have a better feel than I do for the local politics. However, there's still 4 weeks left until the primary and if my prediction is true, expect the media blackout to start in another couple weeks, not right now. Always remember that Medina is not part of the "club" so expecting a fair shake that would threaten the "club" is not likely to happen. Guess we'll see but I'm not confident she'll get a fair shake at the point when the average person (people who didn't watch the debates) starts tuning in to the governor's race.

[Romulus]

That, and local news stations typically give more air time to all candidates. It was the national news that screwed us so badly in '08. I was quite honestly surprised with the moderators at the Belo debate. They were very tough on all the candidates. It was actually fair. Unlike Dr. Paul's appearances which were so obviously stacked against him.

I agree.. they did equally hard on all of them.

[Ron_Paul_Knows]

I was hoping to be a little closer to 20% but this is still good news. The storyline in all the media coverage I have seen regarding this poll is that Medina is surging and Kay is faltering; pretty much all of the coverage has been positive towards Debra. Fox 4 DFW, who has consistently given Medina very good coverage, had a particularly positive segment about the new poll numbers:

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/medina-gaining-on-hutchison-in-polls (http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/medina-gaining-on-hutchison-in-polls)

The poll has generated a lot more press for her and the media is starting to take her more seriously. She is now viewed as a more legitimate candidate and a threat to overtake Kay Bailey to make the run-off. Now that her name is going to be in the news more a lot more people will be learning about her and she will begin to pick up momentum hopefully. Meanwhile, after being energized by Debra's first two debate performances that just concluded, her supporters are just starting to come out in full force doing whatever they can to spread word of her candidacy and help get her elected.

[undergroundrr]

Judging by this and his report after the debate, it's pretty obvious that Fox 4 reporter Shaun Rabb LOVES Debra.

[nayjevin]

So the lesson is, the debate video works? Spread it round the state!

[Ron_Paul_Knows]

Judging by this and his report after the debate, it's pretty obvious that Fox 4 reporter Shaun Rabb LOVES Debra.

Yeah, Shaun Rabb is awesome. He also gave some nice coverage to the moneybomb the day before it happened:
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/medina-begins-online-fundraising-campaign (http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/medina-begins-online-fundraising-campaign)

Here is the video of Rabb after the Belo debate if anyone hasn't seen it. That is the best one.
http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/final-gop-candidate-debate-in-dallas (http://www.myfoxdfw.com/dpp/news/politics/final-gop-candidate-debate-in-dallas)

[Ron_Paul_Knows]

NBC affiliate KXAN 36 in Austin had a news segment about the recent poll numbers that was particularly favorable to Debra. Most of the segment is about Medina and they say that Debra could make the run-off and if so Perry's job could be in jeopardy.

http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/politics/TX-republican-primary-heating-up (http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/politics/TX-republican-primary-heating-up)

[Ron_Paul_Knows]

One thing to keep in mind with this race is that it is an open primary, which means that Democrats and independents are also allowed to vote for the Republican nominee. So the outcome of this race is very unpredictable and the poll numbers might not even come close to representing the actual results. This news segment recently aired on News 8 Austin underscores that point.

Video: http://www.news8austin.com/shared/video/video_pop.asp?destlist=76586 (http://www.news8austin.com/shared/video/video_pop.asp?destlist=76586)
Article: http://www.news8austin.com/content/top_stories/default.asp?ArID=265796 (http://www.news8austin.com/content/top_stories/default.asp?ArID=265796)


"If it is a traditional Republican primary, 600,000 to 700,000, the odds favor Governor Perry," Kronberg said. "If we have a bunch of November Republicans show up, or we have Democrats crossover or independents come in and we get to a million voters, all these polls may well be for not."

The KXAN article I posted above also makes the same point:


Kronberg said that excitement could actually make these polls virtually worthless. Since pollsters contact people who have previously voted in a Republican primary, the thousands who are new participants haven't been taken into account.