Eyes on Costa Rica... We may give the worlds first Lib Prez

[rodo1776]

We are working hard here in Costa Rica to elect the worlds first true Libertarian President. OTTO GUEVARA

Please everyone pray for this victory. It is very possible although we are in second place with three weeks to go but we are moving up and have a really good chance.


Google Otto Guevara or go to www.ottoguevara2010.com

No money bombs needed but lots of prayers (or talk to every Costa Rican you know to get them to vote)

February 7th. A Minnesota Vikings super bowl win and Otto Guevara elected (or at least going to the second round April 4th) Frankly as much as I want the Vikings to win the super bowl I would give that up in a second for an Otto Victory.

Make history. February 7th, 2010.

Pura Vida

[Kludge]

Wow. I wish our politicians outlined not only their positions on topics but specific plans to fix what's wrong as this fellow did on his website.

[low preference guy]

kludge, you speak spanish?

[Kludge]

kludge, you speak spanish?

yo... lei espanol y puedo una vez en mucho tiempo comprendo cuando una persona esta hablando. I go about 1 word per 2 seconds speaking/typing (stopped at Spanish III and I don't remember many of the conversion rules for different tenses) + I haven't bothered trying out a spanish keyboard layout, so...

[dr. hfn]

is he really a libertarian? can the site be translated?

[Kludge]

is he really a libertarian? can the site be translated?

He has a ridiculously long 74 page plan listed here in .pdf form: http://ottoguevara2010.com/Plan%20Gobierno%20Movimiento%20Libertario.pdf

Google says it's too large to translate. Pff.

He isn't a purist by any means, but he's pretty far left from what I read. Supports diverting money to education, lots of cultural awareness & domestic violence education (opposed to laws mandating equality it seems), wants to encourage the indigent to become workers/entrepreneurs. Equality for all under the law and such...

[dude58677]

He has a ridiculously long 74 page plan listed here in .pdf form: http://ottoguevara2010.com/Plan%20Gobierno%20Movimiento%20Libertario.pdf

Google says it's too large to translate. Pff.

He isn't a purist by any means, but he's pretty far left from what I read. Supports diverting money to education, lots of cultural awareness & domestic violence education (opposed to laws mandating equality it seems), wants to encourage the indigent to become workers/entrepreneurs. Equality for all under the law and such...

Doesn't sound much like Ron Paul?

[Kludge]

Doesn't sound much like Ron Paul?

Well... No, but this fellow will still push the country strongly toward Ron Paul's ideals. Ron's a libertarian-leaning conservative. This guy seems to be a libertarian-leaning liberal.

[dr. hfn]

this is awesome!

[low preference guy]

I am form Latin America. You guys have no idea how the presence of the state is felt fucking everywhere. You simply can't come out and say that you want to stop government funding of education. Nevertheless, this guy would be a great improvement. I just read on his site that he wants to use the U.N. and international bodies as forums to denounce Washington's war on drugs. At home he wants to deregulate aggressively, legalize drugs, establish a flat tax for imports. His election would be a great first step.

He jumped 18 points in the polls in the last 2 months. However, this puts him at 30%, and the front runner is at 42%. By the way, he is running on a third party he founded.

[low preference guy]

Kludge, the only relevant differences between a spanish keyboard and an american is the addition of the ñ and the key for accents. All other letters and numbers are in the same place. Some punctuation symbols are also placed differently.

[Kludge]

Kludge, the only relevant differences between a spanish keyboard and an american is the addition of the ñ and the key for accents. All other letters and numbers are in the same place. Some punctuation symbols are also placed differently.

Yeah, it shouldn't be too hard to switch. I think they use the right alt key (AltGr) for accenting in the spanish layout.

Microsoft has a nifty easy-to-use tool for creating custom keyboard layouts if the default Spanish one doesn't do what I want.

[low preference guy]

Reason interview with Otto Guevara (http://reason.com/archives/2003/08/12/the-other-guevara)

In other news, Piñera is winning today's Presidential election in Chile. This would make him the most free market Latin American president in the last 2 decades.

[Mini-Me]

When you take the state of Latin America into context, this guy sounds almost too good to be true. :D

[South Park Fan]

I have a bad feeling that there will be a U.S. invasion of Costa Rica in the near future. :p

[dr. hfn]

I have a bad feeling that there will be a U.S. invasion of Costa Rica in the near future. :p

dude, that is a real possibility. also, can we donate to this guy or not?

[Kludge]

I have a bad feeling that there will be a U.S. invasion of Costa Rica in the near future. :p

They literally abolished their military, but I doubt the citizens would comply with a US occupation.

[rodo1776]

I am form Latin America. You guys have no idea how the presence of the state is felt fucking everywhere. You simply can't come out and say that you want to stop government funding of education. Nevertheless, this guy would be a great improvement. I just read on his site that he wants to use the U.N. and international bodies as forums to denounce Washington's war on drugs. At home he wants to deregulate aggressively, legalize drugs, establish a flat tax for imports. His election would be a great first step.

He jumped 18 points in the polls in the last 2 months. However, this puts him at 30%, and the front runner is at 42%. By the way, he is running on a third party he founded.

Too long too try to explain the exact situation here in Costa Rica. Low preference guy is right here. No one gets elected using straight Libertarian textbook policies. And we are not going to dismantle the existing social institutions. This is third world Costa Rica and not the developed world. So please dont analyise the thing as to whether the guy is 100% with your particular viewpoints.
IF he can get elected it will be a major victory. He is definatley the real thing. I know him.

The point in posting this is to give everyone a heads up that we can have a possible elected Lib Prez. And please pray or give thanks to yoru higher being. We need all the help we can get to pull it out.

New poll out yesterday. The hack in front is down 2 points to 41. We are the same at 30%. If we keep the hack from 40% in the first round then the poll says its 57% hack, 45% us in the second round. Majority of the other candidates switch to us.
No you can not donate as a non Costa Rican. Keep your money for Rand and Peter, etc

[rodo1776]

They literally abolished their military, but I doubt the citizens would comply with a US occupation.

Kludge is right and it is a non issue. We will not be invaded by the USA. We have no militray and do not need one

[rodo1776]

47% hack, 45% us in the second round. within margin of error

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

I hope you guys pull it out! He mentioned Mises, so I hope he has read quite a bit of Austrian Econ. If that is so, and he is able to interject, real free-market solutions Costa Rica could well be on their way to an Economic boom. I must say though, has he talked about sound money and free-banking? Without that, you cannot have a free-market.

Thanks!

[Number19]

Good luck down there in Costa Rica. I've kept a eye on your country and politics for a number of years and am well aware of the strong libertarian presence. I've intended to come down for a visit, but between work and political activism since Ron Paul's presidential run, it just hasn't happened. But I'll get down there.

[Matt Collins]

Watch the movie "Our Brand is Crisis" and it will tell you how to win.

[BuddyRey]

I don't know anything about Costa Rica, but I wish Otto Guevara the best of luck!

BTW, anyone who can understand Spanish and who likes this guy's platform should rate and favorite his campaign video. ;-)

YouTube - Apolitico (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-DPiBrCkwg&feature=player_embedded)

[Endgame]

I actually remember hearing about this guy 10 years ago from Reason or somewhere like that, back when he first went to Costa Rica to found the party. Looks like he's been a busy bee. I really would like to see the libertarian thing become more international. This is a fire that needs to be lit everywhere.

[South Park Fan]

Bump. I'm really optimistic about Guevara's chances. Unlike his last two presidential runs, he's polling at about 30%, only 13 points behind the frontrunner.

[low preference guy]

SPF, were you aware of this guy during the last election already?

[low preference guy]

I was very excited about this guy, but apparently he doesn't understand monetary policy.

He wants to replace the currency of Costa Rica with... guess what?

The dollar.

If he succeeds and the dollar collapses, the libertarian movement in Costa Rica will be thoroughly discredited. I don't know how you can read Ayn Rand and trust paper money. Well, this guy does. I just read it from an article (http://www.nacion.com/ln_ee/2010/enero/14/pais2216317.html) in Spanish.


The possible happy ending will only come if there aren't enough votes to replace the Colon with the dollar. In that case they have an alternative of eliminating restrictions for the use of other currencies. This plan can turn out well, but unfortunately it's the alternative plan.

[Matt Collins]

I believe Don Rasmussen from the Ron Paul 2008 Campaign was down in Costa Rica consulting for these guys a while back....

READ HIS BLOG about this guy!!!
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=106077483637

[dr. hfn]

is the revolution going international?! is America just one front?! viva la revolution!

[Imperial]

Reason interview with Otto Guevara (http://reason.com/archives/2003/08/12/the-other-guevara)

In other news, Piñera is winning today's Presidential election in Chile. This would make him the most free market Latin American president in the last 2 decades.

From everything I've read, Pinera isn't really going to change the policies of Chile's ruling coalition.


I was very excited about this guy, but apparently he doesn't understand monetary policy.

He wants to replace the currency of Costa Rica with... guess what?

The dollar.

If he succeeds and the dollar collapses, the libertarian movement in Costa Rica will be thoroughly discredited. I don't know how you can read Ayn Rand and trust paper money. Well, this guy does. I just read it from an article in Spanish.


The possible happy ending will only come if there aren't enough votes to replace the Colon with the dollar. In that case they have an alternative of eliminating restrictions for the use of other currencies. This plan can turn out well, but unfortunately it's the alternative plan.

You have to realize that competition works in international currencies too. And those with the strongest financial institutions are the dollar and the Euro. But of course latin America already has the most contact with the dollar. Compare the dollar to the currencies of their neighbors. Generally latin american currencies are less stable.

Even if the US dollar will be in for a crash at some point, it is still far-better than its competitors.

[low preference guy]

From everything I've read, Pinera isn't really going to change the policies of Chile's ruling coalition.

I read a lot about Pinera, and his priority is to introduce the free market in education. He will have opposition, but he is very smart. I wouldn't rule out he'll pull it off. Nor would I put much faith in the media saying that he'll fail. The media is usually clueless.




Even if the US dollar will be in for a crash at some point, it is still far-better than its competitors.

If there is hyperinflation all their wealth stored in cash will vanish. Thus, they'll be worse off than pretty much every other Latin American country with a local currency.

[South Park Fan]

SPF, were you aware of this guy during the last election already?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Guevara

First elected to congress as the sole representative for the Movimiento Libertario in 1998, Guevara earned recognition as Costa Rica’s best legislator by the press every year of his first term. In 2002, Libertarian Movement, with Guevara as the presidential candidate, elected 6 members to Congress out of 57 seats, but few weeks later they lost a Congressman, declared independent. After a split within the party that saw a group of libertarian members leave, Guevara said his party was moving to be liberal and no libertarian. 2006 saw the Libertarian Movement Party again elect 6 members to congress, but they lost again other Congressman. As a presidential candidate in 2006, Guevara earned almost 10% of the vote. In 2009, Guevara is elected presidential candidate for third time.

[Imperial]

I read a lot about Pinera, and his priority is to introduce the free market in education. He will have opposition, but he is very smart. I wouldn't rule out he'll pull it off. Nor would I put much faith in the media saying that he'll fail. The media is usually clueless.

I didn't say that the media said he would fail. Only that he isn't going to take the initiative to make that many changes. Chile's political scene is still more leftist than right, so he only has so much political capital to work with. You will probably mostly see minor and incremental changes.

On an aside, I am trying to look up Pinera's background, as he has been active in Chilean politics for years, since at least Pinochet's fall. History of a guy tells alot more about the man than his positions. I am also a bit worried about his foreign policy- really friendly with Alvaro Uribe of Colombia. I haven't read much of "prioritizing" education though- he seems more focused on the economy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/18/sebastian-pinera-wins-chile-presidency

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15330886



If there is hyperinflation all their wealth stored in cash will vanish. Thus, they'll be worse off than pretty much every other Latin American country with a local currency.

There is no bright line for when a hyperinflation will occur. It is fairly simple to obfuscate reality through central banking and pump-priming.

[BuddyRey]

Do any RPF'ers with lines of communication to Latin America know how Guevara is doing? I try to find out myself, but most of the articles floating around are in Spanish.

[qh4dotcom]

is he really a libertarian? can the site be translated?

I recall Judge Napolitano interviewed him on Freedom Watch

[low preference guy]

I didn't say that the media said he would fail. Only that he isn't going to take the initiative to make that many changes. Chile's political scene is still more leftist than right, so he only has so much political capital to work with. You will probably mostly see minor and incremental changes.

On an aside, I am trying to look up Pinera's background, as he has been active in Chilean politics for years, since at least Pinochet's fall. History of a guy tells alot more about the man than his positions. I am also a bit worried about his foreign policy- really friendly with Alvaro Uribe of Colombia. I haven't read much of "prioritizing" education though- he seems more focused on the economy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/18/sebastian-pinera-wins-chile-presidency

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15330886




There is no bright line for when a hyperinflation will occur. It is fairly simple to obfuscate reality through central banking and pump-priming.




There is no bright line for when a hyperinflation will occur. It is fairly simple to obfuscate reality through central banking and pump-priming.

I just don't follow it. "It is fairly simple to obfuscate reality through central banking and pump-priming". When there is hyper inflation the central bank is powerless.

My point is, which you seemed to miss, that if there is hyperinflation in the dollar, all countries whose main currency is the dollar will have their wealth destroyed more than those countries whose main currency is not the dollar. If Costa Ricans replace their currency with dollars, the population will lose their purchasing power more than if they have any other currency. That's why I say their plan to implement a completely dollar-based monetary system might turn out badly.

There are plenty of articles in which Piñera talks about education, but they don't show up in the international media.

About your claim that the political climate in Chile is more left-leaning, let me explain that in Latin American politicians don't have much of an ideology as they do here. In traditionally right-leaning countries, like Chile and Paraguay, everyone just goes in the direction of the strong leader, in this case the President. They especially do this if the President is from the right. And Chile had a long dictatorship with Pinochet. The political climate to a great degree is not left or right, but "follow the leader". As a Latin American, let me say that you can't translate your U.S. left-right framework to analyze South America. Let's give it 2 years and see what happens.

As for foreign policy, it's pretty much irrelevant. They don't have the resources to police the world or anything like that, and although they might talk tough, there is close to no chance of war breaking out. Chile will overwhelm Venezuela or Bolivia, which are the only countries foolish enough to engage in war. Said that, I'll concede that Piñera is awful in the war on drugs.

[low preference guy]

Do any RPF'ers with lines of communication to Latin America know how Guevara is doing? I try to find out myself, but most of the articles floating around are in Spanish.

I think there was a debate today, but I didn't have time to watch it. He is second for more than 15 points. It will be hard to pull it off, but this is still a great showing compared to the past elections.

[Imperial]

About your claim that the political climate in Chile is more left-leaning, let me explain that in Latin American politicians don't have much of an ideology as they do here. You can't translate your U.S. left-right framework to analyze South America. I lived most of my life there. In traditionally right-leaning countries, like Chile and Paraguay, everyone just goes in the direction of the strong leader, in this case the President. They especially do this if the President is from the right. And Chile had a long dictatorship with Pinochet. The political climate to a great degree is not left or right, but "follow the leader". Let's give it 2 years and see what happens.

That is a fair point, given the long-standing history of caudillos in Latin American politics. Although I think that doesn't mean you should discount the ideological considerations either though. Chile is also a bit more advanced in its political strutures than its neighbors, so the public policy debate does emerge as a significant force in its politics too. Whether it was Allende or Pinochet, they had a strong ideological basis to their caudillos.


I just don't follow it. "It is fairly simple to obfuscate reality through central banking and pump-priming". When there is hyper inflation the central bank is powerless.

My point is, which you seemed to miss, that if there is hyperinflation in the dollar, all countries whose main currency is the dollar will have their wealth destroyed more than those countries whose main currency is not the dollar. If Costa Ricans replace their currency with dollars, the population will lose their purchasing power more than if they have any other currency. That's why I say their plan to implement a completely dollar-based monetary system might turn out badly.

I understand what you are saying. My point is that I differ with many Austrians when I don't think an impending economic collapse of Great Depression scale is coming. There are too many ways to float the status quo and avoid the crash. Even if the dollar declines, it won't bottom out for a long time.

[low preference guy]

I understand what you are saying. My point is that I differ with many Austrians when I don't think an impending economic collapse of Great Depression scale is coming. There are too many ways to float the status quo and avoid the crash. Even if the dollar declines, it won't bottom out for a long time.

Well, if it takes a while for the dollar to bottom out, they will still blame Otto Guevara when it happens.

[BuddyRey]

I think there was a debate today, but I didn't have time to watch it. He is second for more than 15 points. It will be hard to pull it off, but this is still a great showing compared to the past elections.

Mmmm...maybe we'll get to see some subtitled 'tubes tomorrow!

[low preference guy]

Mmmm...maybe we'll get to see some subtitled 'tubes tomorrow!

There are very few articles about the debate, even in Spanish. But from the little I read, the debate wasn't a game changer. The election is February 7, and although Guevara is losing, he will be in the run off election if no one gets 40% of the vote. In the last poll, the front-runner received 36%. Of course, polls are not always accurate and she might finish with a few votes above or below 40%. We'll have to wait until voting day.

[fatjohn]

It's over she got 47, he only got 21.5 too bad.

[dr. hfn]

fuk!

[BuddyRey]

That sucks!

[Elwar]

I think I remember this guy speaking at a Libertarian Party national convention. It may have been someone else, but they were saying that Costa Rica has a voting system where Congressional seats are filled based on a percentage of votes. They have their Libertarian Party and had enough percentage to fill Congressional seats.

[low preference guy]

I think I remember this guy speaking at a Libertarian Party national convention. It may have been someone else, but they were saying that Costa Rica has a voting system where Congressional seats are filled based on a percentage of votes. They have their Libertarian Party and had enough percentage to fill Congressional seats.

That's right (http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/internacional/noticias/1895079/02/10/Ningun-partido-alcanza-la-mayoria-en-el-nuevo-Congreso-costarricense.html). Congress seats:

PLN (winner) : 29
PAC (leftist): 11 (17 in 2006)
Movimiento Libertario: 10 (5 in 2006)
Partido Unidad Socialcristiana : 6
PASE (apparently leftist): 4

Not too bad.

[rodo1776]

Real numbers as of now. There are 57 total.

PLN only 23 and not a majority (too bad for them they have to negotiate now, down from 26)
PAC 12 (down from 17)
Unidad 6
Pase (this is the handicapped party not really leftist per se. Big surpise of the election was this) 4 up from 1
3 are from real small parties
Libertarians right now have 9 secure. Two are in dispute with very tight results. We can probably win one (probably the 6th from Unidad).

The good news is we went from 8% last time to 21% this time (for Prez) and created a good solid base. Lots of lies and rumors from the party in power, MSM preference for her etc. Otto has stated he is running again while the leftist that came in second is saying he wont. That will help alot.

We took one county outright and did very well in three of the more low population provinces. There was obvious activity for us all over the country. We ran out of flags and posters and t shirts (all big deals here) We lacked a lot of transportation organization on election day which is important. The winners just have so much money and 60 years of organization that those things were very hard to overcome.

Also great to get 9 or 10 congress. This legislature is so screwed up and hard to cut deals that libs are in great shape and can influence things even more. The past 5 congresspeople have been able to block any new tax increases.
Im excited and planning on working harder.
What we need is more on the ground organization and more education for local leaders who do the grunt work of getting people decided and out to vote.

All this takes time. Remember Otto started this in 94 and every election things are better. But it is a slow process (AND A SHITLOAD OF WORK) and our base gets better every year.

While non Costa Ricans can not give directly to the campaigns they can help with educational events. We have had weekend seminars with full days of classroom activities explaining Libertarian positions for local leaders. When the locals understand this they are more animated and better able to use real examples to talk to people about why Libs are correct and how it would affect them.

If anyone knows how to raise some funds to help education here that would be great.

As an example we can have a full 2.5 day weekend seminar for about $200.00 per attendant complete with all expenses and materials. When people leave after this they are really excited and get more involved. Anybody want to sponsor someone?

So even though we wanted to do better, this result is a good step up and puts us in the minds of people. Here people are very fluid on who they support. While the winners have a base many can be switched.

Especially after we see 4 more years of the same crap and a depression that will keep hammering us.


Good luck up there!!




That's right (http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/internacional/noticias/1895079/02/10/Ningun-partido-alcanza-la-mayoria-en-el-nuevo-Congreso-costarricense.html). Congress seats:

PLN (winner) : 29
PAC (leftist): 11 (17 in 2006)
Movimiento Libertario: 10 (5 in 2006)
Partido Unidad Socialcristiana : 6
PASE (apparently leftist): 4

Not too bad.