Brown 50.8 / Coakley 41.2 / Kennedy 1.8 / Undecided 6.2 - MRG poll taken 1/15

[parocks]

http://insidemedford.com/2010/01/17/brown-has-96-lead-in-new-poll/

A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.

[Liberty Star]

Wow, Coakley is rising fast, in poll posted here just couple of days ago she was behind 14 points, now she has cut that lead to just 9 points.
Could be news of who's behind Brown gradually spreading in the commonwealth?

[parocks]

Wow, Coakley is rising fast, in poll posted here just couple of days ago she was behind 14 points, now she has cut that lead to just 9 points.
Could be news of who's behind Brown gradually spreading in the commonwealth?

You're enthused about Coakley being down by 9?
A poll from a week ago had Coakley up by 15?

She's lost 25% in a week.

It all depends on how you look at it, I suppose.

One think I find interesting in that this particular poll seems to be showing NO
evidence of Kennedy's support coming from old people confused about who Kennedy is.

If you look at the crosstabs, Kennedy gets 4% of 18-44, 3% of 45-59, 0% of 60+.
Kennedy is getting 3% of Independents, 1% of Democrats, 0% of Republicans.
Kennedy is getting 2% of Liberals, 1% of Conservatives, 0% of Moderates, and 7% who don't know if they're Liberal, Conservative or Moderate.

It appears that they talked to 565 people and 9 said they were voting for Kennedy. 5 said they were sure they were voting for Kennedy, 2 said they were probably voting for Kennedy, and 2 said they were leaning to Kennedy.

[tonesforjonesbones]

GOGOGOOOO SCOTT BROWN. TONES volunteered to make phone calls for Scott Brown this weekend to GOTV. I don't believe he is a hard core conservative, but anything is better than another DEMOCRAP in that seat. This will definately shift the paradigm and that is what we need at the moment. Checks and balances folks...checks and balances. TONES

[tonesforjonesbones]

....and we continue to spread the liberty message and educate folks...TONES

[Flash]

Wow, Coakley is rising fast, in poll posted here just couple of days ago she was behind 14 points, now she has cut that lead to just 9 points.
Could be news of who's behind Brown gradually spreading in the commonwealth?

That poll from a few days ago was an internal poll by Brown's campaign. Meaning it can't be trusted or taken seriously.

[parocks]

That poll from a few days ago was an internal poll by Brown's campaign. Meaning it can't be trusted or taken seriously.

That poll wasn't an internal poll. Actually, internal polls are designed to be as accurate as possible, because the candidates really do need to know what's going on. Some polls are designed to mislead the public, so they ask too many of a certain subgroup, or whatnot.

I'm not saying that poll was spot on accurate, just that it wasn't an internal poll, if we're talking about the pajamasmedia poll.

[Flash]

That poll wasn't an internal poll. Actually, internal polls are designed to be as accurate as possible, because the candidates really do need to know what's going on. Some polls are designed to mislead the public, so they ask too many of a certain subgroup, or whatnot.

I'm not saying that poll was spot on accurate, just that it wasn't an internal poll, if we're talking about the pajamasmedia poll.

Ah, I see. I remember a poll from a few days ago that was an internal and showed him leading by roughly 14 points, I assumed that was it.

Anyways it's great Brown is now up 9 points.

[ItsTime]

I dont like Brown but the attack ads Coakley make her look like a scumbag. She insinuates that Brown hates rape victims. They are really making Coakley looking like a freaking nut job.

[parocks]

There's another Pajamasmedia poll due out sometime around 3am EST.
http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2010/01/17/brown-vs-coakley-new-pjmcrosstarget-poll-coming-midnight-pacific-time/

Apparently the last Pajamasmedia poll was criticized.

A lot of these polls seem to turn to a certain degree on assumptions made
about turnout. If you say that 41% of the people voting on Tuesday will be registered Dems, you'll get a different result than if you say that 35% of the people voting will be registered Dems. No one knows how many Dems, Reps and Unenrolled to ask - they're all making guesses.



Ah, I see. I remember a poll from a few days ago that was
an internal and showed him leading by roughly 14 points, I assumed that was it.
Anyways it's great Brown is now up 9 points.

[erowe1]

I dont like Brown but the attack ads Coakley make her look like a scumbag. She insinuates that Brown hates rape victims. They are really making Coakley looking like a freaking nut job.

I heard about those ads. But weren't they from some separate feminist group, not the Coakley campaign?

[ItsTime]

I heard about those ads. But weren't they from some separate feminist group, not the Coakley campaign?

Let me rewind my dvr one just played I could have sworn I heard her say "I approve this message"

Yup just checked she clearly says she approves this message.