The Hill: Trey Grayson Can Still Come Back

[Flash]

Can Trey Grayson and Lee Fisher turn it around?

The two most disappointing third quarters on the Senate map came from Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D). Neither raised even $650,000, and both were severely outdone by other candidates. In the fourth quarter, both have a chance to assert that the third quarter was a fluke. Grayson primary opponent Rand Paul, who tracks his fundraising on his website, will not turn in another $1 million quarter, so the door is open to Grayson. Fisher is now more than two quarters removed from his own $1 million effort in early 2009, and he could use another one to silence the critics. He benefits from what turned out to be a pretty innocuous primary challenge from Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, but former Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is raising big general-election bucks.



I doubt Grayson has out raised Rand in the 4th quarter and I seriously doubt he can beat Rand this quarter.

http:// thehill.com/homenews/campaign/75581-the-big-questions-for-the-fourth-quarter

[Dreamofunity]

When are Grayson's numbers due? the 15th?

[Austin]

When are Grayson's numbers due? the 15th?

Year end reports are due on the 31st.

[Flash]

Actually I could've sworn it was the 15th too.

[Matt Collins]

Trey has already lost. Rand is on the upswing ahead of Trey and Trey plateaued out a long time ago

[amisspelledword]

Trey has already lost. Rand is on the upswing ahead of Trey and Trey plateaued out a long time ago

no way

Trey hasn't even started campaigning yet. his plateauing is impossible. however, his problem might instead be that he can't dig himself out of the hole he's currently in. there is still time for some hardcore campaigning to take off. rand is just going to have to keep working really hard like he has been in order to maintain his lead.

all that being said, i hope you're right and im wrong, haha

[fj45lvr]

the mud slinging hasn't started in earnest yet.... right before election he'll have some sleeze on the nightly news.

[TCE]

He has the entire establishment behind him on multiple levels, he has the experience, and he has Mitch McConnell, a man who has won Senate races in Kentucky for over two decades. The only time he'll be "done" is the day after the Primary. Anyone who thinks this will be a cakewalk for Rand is kidding themselves.

[Matt Collins]

Rand will win, I have no doubts after today. It won't be easy and it won't be pretty, but Rand will win.

[jrice]

what happened today matt?

[dannno]

If Trayson outraised Paul 4th quarter he would have announced his numbers already.

[Koz]

He has the entire establishment behind him on multiple levels, he has the experience, and he has Mitch McConnell, a man who has won Senate races in Kentucky for over two decades. The only time he'll be "done" is the day after the Primary. Anyone who thinks this will be a cakewalk for Rand is kidding themselves.

This is exactly right. Sun Tzu teaches us to never underestimate our opponents and to anticipate their moves. Rand is in for a fight, if you think the republican machine is going to throw in the towel on this one you are dead wrong. The last person they want in the Senate is Rand. I believe they would rather see a Dem win than Rand. He will change the status quo, that is not something they want.

[Austin]

This is exactly right. Sun Tzu teaches us to never underestimate our opponents and to anticipate their moves. Rand is in for a fight, if you think the republican machine is going to throw in the towel on this one you are dead wrong. The last person they want in the Senate is Rand. I believe they would rather see a Dem win than Rand. He will change the status quo, that is not something they want.

I think there is a lot of merit in that statement.

[aclove]

I also agree with Koz. What matters more to guys like McConnell and Reid is that the person elected is indebted to those controlling the system, regardless of their political party. Someone like Rand who's running an independent campaign and raising his own money is a threat to them, not only because he's principled, but because anyone who gets elected without the help of the Establishment doesn't owe the Establishment anything upon assuming office. That's the biggest threat of all.

[JohnG]

Not sure about that thing about them rather wanting a dem elected. I don't think so, not this year. They need all seats they can get to stop obamas reforms.

[Matt Collins]

what happened today matt?I spent the entire day with Rand & co at HQ largely discussing strategy. There is no doubt in my mind that we are going to win.

[Matt Collins]

The last person they want in the Senate is Rand. I believe they would rather see a Dem win than Rand. Once Rand wins the primary this will change. The GOP machine will fall in behind him, I now have no doubts.

[Nate]

http://www.onedirt.com/photos/data/507/Waynes-World_l.jpg

"It might happen. Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt."

[Nate]

I think Grayson is dead in the water, he will never gain the support of the average Republican voter in this campaign. I'm more worried about the establishment Republicans making a deal with the Democrats to submarine Rand's candidacy during the general election & put a controlled Dem in the seat rather than Rand.

[Nate]

Once Rand wins the primary this will change. The GOP machine will fall in behind him, I now have no doubts.

I think they will in public but in private they will sabotage him. Rand's campaign & the organization that is growing up around him threatens their power base in the Kentucky Republican Party. Especially if Rand wins & can then use the influence of his Senator status to support candidates for House Rep as well as for the state level.

[Matt Collins]

I'm more worried about the establishment Republicans making a deal with the Democrats to submarine Rand's candidacy during the general election & put a controlled Dem in the seat rather than Rand.

I think they will in public but in private they will sabotage him. Rand's campaign & the organization that is growing up around him threatens their power base in the Kentucky Republican Party. Especially if Rand wins & can then use the influence of his Senator status to support candidates for House Rep as well as for the state level.Nope. There are a few factors you are forgetting. McConnell is Sen Maj Ldr. He better damn well win his own state or he'll have some serious problems. Also the GOP cannot afford a loss right now. And remember that the majority of Republicans, even the leadership, just want their team to win. Elections are not about issues to them so as long as someone with an R next to their name gets into the Senate, that's what 90% of the GOP leadership cares about.

[aclove]

So, Matt, do you feel that McConnell and the gang would actively campaign for Rand, provided he wins the primary, or do you think it more likely that they would simply go quiet and not openly oppose him?

[Matt Collins]

So, Matt, do you feel that McConnell and the gang would actively campaign for Rand, provided he wins the primary, or do you think it more likely that they would simply go quiet and not openly oppose him?Yes most will campaign for Rand because of the reasons listed above. I have no doubts the full Republican Party including the RNC and the NRSC will put its weight behind Rand when he wins the primary. There may be a few who will just go quiet, but by and large, the GOP electoral machine will be behind him. :)

[aclove]

Well, I hope you're right. Will you be in Atlanta this weekend?

[Matt Collins]

Well, I hope you're right. Will you be in Atlanta this weekend?
Yes I will. It'll be a blast :D

[TCE]

As I've stated before:

If Rand wins, McConnell will, if nothing else, endorse him. If he loses a seat in his own backyard in a Republican year, he likely won't be Minority Leader this time next year. He wants power just like everyone else. So, he'll help Rand just to keep his hold on the Republican Party.

[Nathan Hale]

As I've stated before:

If Rand wins, McConnell will, if nothing else, endorse him. If he loses a seat in his own backyard in a Republican year, he likely won't be Minority Leader this time next year. He wants power just like everyone else. So, he'll help Rand just to keep his hold on the Republican Party.

Which will make it extra funny when Rand backs Demint for minority leader.

[Promontorium]

The Republicans will support Rand for the votes.

Certainly Dr. Paul will not vote "in-line" with the party, but he will vote with them on many of the things they are focusing on right now.

Healthcare, taxes across the board, abortion, guns, environment, and many more key Republican issues Paul will be a supporter, where almost any Democratic candidate would oppose.

Rand might vote to cut spending for the war, or vote to end the war, or anything along those lines, and you know what? The Democratics and Republicans already in office would overule. Rand doesn't pose enough of a threat with his "libertarian" views, because he would be an extreme minority. But his "Republican" views are absolutely critical with 1 or 2 votes changing the course of America right now on many issues.

[TCE]

On pretty much everything that has come up this year, Rand will vote with the Republicans.

Stimulus, Health Care, Cap-and-Trade, Financial Regulation, Budget, Debt Ceiling, War Spending, SCHIP, etc.

I can't see any area thus far where he would have voted with the Democrats.

[itshappening]

they would rather have the Dem in than Rand, we will be on our own so will have to raise a lot of money

[fj45lvr]

they would rather have the Dem in than Rand, we will be on our own so will have to raise a lot of money


who's "they"??

[jabf2006]

who's "they"??

You know. Them guys.

[devil21]

You know. Them guys.

Those party regular status quo types...

[randolphfuller]

With Rand in the U.S. Senate, the Establishment Republicans would feel their control of the party might be threatened. They would much rather have the Democrat,

[amisspelledword]

maybe im being naive, but i honestly dont think the establishment GOP will think twice about supporting Rand because of the danger of Obama and his agenda. i mean, Rand may or may not be voting the way every single other Republican would like, but he is certainly not going to be voting for universal health care, bailouts, or for new bank taxes (or taxes of any kind).

maybe im wrong, though. after all, the leaders of the party (Bush & McCain) both supported the bailout. i think it is generally accepted as the wrong thing to do now, though. or maybe i am naive as far as that goes, too.

[Nathan Hale]

There is no more GOP establishment in the traditional sense of the word. You won't have the McCains or McConnells support Rand, but you will see the DeMints and the Palins flocking to his banner. Remember, the infrastructure of the GOP is in turmoil, that's what gives us this unique opportunity.