FiveThirtyEight: "it looks like Rand Paul will be the Republican nominee"

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/senate-rankings-decemeber-2009-edition.html


Kentucky (R-Open) -- Upgraded because it looks like Rand Paul will be the Republican nominee. Kentucky is not a very libertarian-friendly state; it tends, rather, to be in the opposite corner, conservative on social issues but supportive of an economic safety net. So -- although Paul will surely raise millions from activists all over the country -- there's a chance this plays out something like NY-23, where a national message proves to be a bit tone-deaf in an idiosyncratic corner of the country.

Well I guess it's a good thing Rand Paul is a constitutional-conservative instead.

[torchbearer]

I think the author just insulted the people of Kentucky.

[erowe1]

I think the author just insulted the people of Kentucky.

He also insulted libertarians by implying that they are liberal on social issues.

[torchbearer]

He also insulted libertarians by implying that they are liberal on social issues.

he just stated that Kentucky is mindlessly either Neocon or Neoliberal. Totally bought into the false left-right paradigm and that they'd reject someone who believes economic and civil rights are the same thing. i'd be insulted if someone said that about the citizens of my state.

[skyorbit]

He's saying that because of his ideology, Rand will have a harder time in the general then try would.

Too bad Rasmussen disagrees with him.
http://randforsenate.blogspot.com/2010/01/rand-paul-leading-trey-grayson-in.html

[TCE]

He's been stating that for a long time. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/senate-rankings-august-2009-edition.html


One dynamic to watch for in Kentucky is that Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul, will probably put the Republicans at a disadvantage if he defeats Trey Grayson for the party's nomination. Kentucky is arguably among the worst environments for a libertarian candidate in the country: socially conservative but somewhat more liberal economically, the exact opposite of the libertarian sweet spot.

[Matt Collins]

We should start calling him "presumed nominee"

[hueylong]

Please take a moment to snap on what this means...

Silver's people are saying that Rand is the likely nominee. That's like Vegas making him the favorite. It's almost something you can take to the bank.

Obviously, the campaign needs to play out -- but it's a pretty huge recognition.

Sure, it stings a little that he thinks Rand would be weaker against the Dems -- but the key is that conventional wisdom is setting in that Rand will win the primary.

That's huge.

[Matt Collins]

Silver's people are saying that Rand is the likely nominee. That's like Vegas making him the favorite. It's almost something you can take to the bank.- but the key is that conventional wisdom is setting in that Rand will win the primary.

That's huge.Interestingly enough I just had a conversation with a heavy hitter in TN politics tonight. He hadn't followed Rand' campaign at all but he got on the phone with me and was under the distinct impression that Rand has the primary sewn up already. He then told me that the GOP of KY has no interest in playing fair however.

[itshappening]

Interestingly enough I just had a conversation with a heavy hitter in TN politics tonight. He hadn't followed Rand' campaign at all but he got on the phone with me and was under the distinct impression that Rand has the primary sewn up already. He then told me that the GOP of KY has no interest in playing fair however.

McConnell has the county chairs sewn up and the party stalwarts. This is where less than a hundred votes will decide the winner, unless we can flood and overwelm them and generate such excitement but they will be counting on a low turnout in a primary and their motivated 80 or so stalwarts in each country/locality will vote for Grayson (or work for him)

[Matt Collins]

McConnell has the county chairs sewn up and the party stalwarts. This is where less than a hundred votes will decide the winner, unless we can flood and overwelm them and generate such excitement but they will be counting on a low turnout in a primary and their motivated 80 or so stalwarts in each country/locality will vote for Grayson (or work for him)
In any other year, yes. But I predict record (Republican) primary turn out for mid-terms across the nation.

[itshappening]

In any other year, yes. But I predict record (Republican) primary turn out for mid-terms across the nation.

Yes, hopefully our voters show up.....

[ItsTime]

In any other year, yes. But I predict record (Republican) primary turn out for mid-terms across the nation.

And I predict record low black turn out.