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BillyDkid
12-09-2009, 09:25 AM
Now, I am less knowledgeable, probably, than most of the people who post in here. I read and try to understand, but I have to say I am something of a "gut thinker" sort of like our beloved Dubya. My feelings about the next year is that sometime late in the spring the S will really start to HTF as the economic stimulus will reveal itself to be a fraud and the improvement in the economy will be shown to be an illusion. I just have bad feelings about it. Watching TV and the news and seeing all the commercials for gadgets and gizmos you get the feeling that people are oblivious. I see these ads by big companies like GE talking about optimism for the future and how the future is golden, but I just don't see it. I see virtually everything we are doing is unsustainable and I think we are near the end of the point where it can prop itself up. Does anyone else see next year as the year when the real shift starts to occur or is my gut full of shit - figuratively speaking?

LDA
12-09-2009, 09:29 AM
No, you're absolutely right. We're headed for hard times. Most people think the recession will just end and we'll be back to our "normal" level of prosperity. Of course, that isn't true. The establishment is interested in keeping people calm, because they can continue to get elected. When the people begin to panic and realize what has been going on, the career politicians will be taking a hike.

cpike
12-09-2009, 10:05 AM
You've nailed it. I've always liked to describe the stimulus/bailouts as a sugar rush. Sure you get a little bump after getting it in you, but you only crash harder after a short time. Usually you see very sudden and massive recovery when coming out of a recession to levels never before seen. We aren't having that here.

RevolutionSD
12-09-2009, 10:11 AM
Now, I am less knowledgeable, probably, than most of the people who post in here. I read and try to understand, but I have to say I am something of a "gut thinker" sort of like our beloved Dubya. My feelings about the next year is that sometime late in the spring the S will really start to HTF as the economic stimulus will reveal itself to be a fraud and the improvement in the economy will be shown to be an illusion. I just have bad feelings about it. Watching TV and the news and seeing all the commercials for gadgets and gizmos you get the feeling that people are oblivious. I see these ads by big companies like GE talking about optimism for the future and how the future is golden, but I just don't see it. I see virtually everything we are doing is unsustainable and I think we are near the end of the point where it can prop itself up. Does anyone else see next year as the year when the real shift starts to occur or is my gut full of shit - figuratively speaking?

I think you're dead on target. Hopefully, people will also start to realize that government as a whole is a fraud, and always has been.:cool:

Dieseler
12-09-2009, 10:54 AM
Yup.
It's all downhill from here and as far down as they want it to go.
The illusion will continue to be enforced.
How far do they intend to let it go?
Mudhuts and mudpies.

Todd
12-09-2009, 11:24 AM
Your absolutey spot on. Continue relying on the gut. Cognitive dissonance will continue because many conversations seems to tell me they believe the way out of this is savings and fiscal responsibility, while they praise things such as stimulus checks and military spending aborad. We want to believe that our leaders have our best interests at heart.

jclay2
12-09-2009, 11:30 AM
The big inflationary episode that everyone has been waiting for isn't going to happen until some confidence and improvements start happening in the economy. Currently all of the money that was injected into the banking system is just sitting around doing nothing. If the economy starts to improve, the banks will start lending and start the fire of inflation. As long as the economy is soft, the inflation will be much less then if the economy started to improve. Maybe it would be better for the economy to "improve" so we could face the inflationary episode sooner?

Dieseler
12-09-2009, 11:38 AM
I wouldn't worry much about buying a wheelbarrow.
Any extra cash created will be sucked right back up by the government in the form of taxes.
Think downsizing for survival.
Can't sell?
Me either, sucks. I'm stuck where I am unless I near give my house away.
There's nothing you can do to stop this.
Just try not to swallow too much of the koolaide while your swimming in it lest you drown.
People are just to damn stupid as a whole to see what is being done to the entire world.

ctiger2
12-09-2009, 12:42 PM
Currently all of the money that was injected into the banking system is just sitting around doing nothing.

From what I've read, the Fed injected money into troubled banks and then took it all back. They've made agreements with the banks to pay them interest on that money. So, essentially the banks don't have the money and can't lend.

Romulus
12-09-2009, 01:12 PM
its not going to get any better.. dont look for it. hunker down and prepare.. our economy will go sideways at best. taxes will go up, living standards down.. not going to drop out next year.. but this will be a gradual decline over the next years..

youngbuck
12-09-2009, 01:20 PM
its not going to get any better.. dont look for it. hunker down and prepare.. our economy will go sideways at best. taxes will go up, living standards down.. not going to drop out next year.. but this will be a gradual decline over the next years..

That's what I'm thinking. I'm keeping an eye on commercial real estate, and using that (among other things, obviously) as my barometer for near term predictions.

Kotin
12-09-2009, 01:36 PM
From what I've read, the Fed injected money into troubled banks and then took it all back. They've made agreements with the banks to pay them interest on that money. So, essentially the banks don't have the money and can't lend.

my mother's good friend who is a huge banker revealed to her that all of the bailout money was given to the banks with orders for them to use the money to buy stocks.. this is why the stock market is doing so well and everything else is not..


what I wonder is what will happen when the banks run out of the stimulus? stock market crash? my guess is that we will know when this happens based on when the next bailout is..