What are Adams' chances of winning?

[Magicman]

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this subject?

[randolphfuller]

The Republican primary is going to be tougher to win than he calculates, as his opponent is a white, oil business Republican. As far as the general election is concerned all political services now have it designated "safe Democratic". He face an incumbent Hispanic Democrat in a 61% non-white district. But it is still early and Adam is campaigning zealously!

[wd4freedom]

The district (im in it) is heavily democratic and corrupt to its core. The center of the district is Santa Fe where corruption breeds like pheromoned rabbits. He is making a valiant effort and I applaud him but unless there truly is a shtf event between now and election, he doesn't have a chance.

[MR2Fast2Catch]

I don't care if people say Adam doesn't stand a chance. He is one of the best candidates for Congress I have ever seen, so I have to support him, regardless of the odds. Kokesh for Congress! For Liberty!

[Aratus]

then lets back him to the hilt as we hope for the best! not until its over will we know how things are to be!

[ronpaulhawaii]

The Republican primary is going to be tougher to win than he calculates, as his opponent is a white, oil business Republican. As far as the general election is concerned all political services now have it designated "safe Democratic". He face an incumbent Hispanic Democrat in a 61% non-white district. But it is still early and Adam is campaigning zealously!

^ A decent analysis.


The district (im in it) is heavily democratic and corrupt to its core. The center of the district is Santa Fe where corruption breeds like pheromoned rabbits. He is making a valiant effort and I applaud him but unless there truly is a shtf event between now and election, he doesn't have a chance.

^ A overly cynical analysis. The people here are sick of the corruption and the incumbent is an embarrassment, across the political spectrum. We have been laying serious groundwork and the response we are getting, even in the "blue blob" is positive. No-one thinks this is a cake-walk, but we are certainly not pessimistic. Where in the district are you?

[Adam Kokesh]

We've calculated that we have to flip 10-15,000 Dems. A shift of that size is not easy, but certainly doable, and we have a perfect storm of circumstance (both nationally and locally) coming together that makes this quite likely. We intend to win.

[Kevin_Kennedy]

His chances would be better if we were getting him the money he needs to campaign. Adam and staff have done an amazing job with the resources they have, but he needs more than $100,000 to run a campaign for U.S. Congress.

[dr. hfn]

His chances would be better if we were getting him the money he needs to campaign. Adam and staff have done an amazing job with the resources they have, but he needs more than $100,000 to run a campaign for U.S. Congress.

next moneybomb for adam, we need ron paul to tell his email list! and adam should go on alex jones show!

[RCA]

"What are Adams' chances of winning?"

replace with:

"What is Adam's chance of winning?"

Sorry, I couldn't help myself.

[TCE]

His chances would be better if we were getting him the money he needs to campaign. Adam and staff have done an amazing job with the resources they have, but he needs more than $100,000 to run a campaign for U.S. Congress.

Especially with Lujan already at $196,000. Kokesh needs $200,000 minimally to be competitive. With the primary now competitive, he probably needs around $400,000.

http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00029562&cycle=2010

However, Kokesh's burn rate has been pretty high. As of September 30, he has only $31,000 left of the $104,000 he raised. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2010&id=NM03

[MR2Fast2Catch]

We are planning a big money bomb for Adam on February 1st. Within a few weeks, I'm planning on making a youtube video to promote it, similar to the one I made for Rand Paul's money bomb (in my sig).

Join the facebook group for the money bomb:
Adam's Birthday Bomb (http://www.facebook.com/Ben.Beckhart#/group.php?gid=176957790501)

Rand Paul and Peter Schiff seem to be getting all the attention with money bombs lately, so let's make sure Adam isn't forgotten.

[wd4freedom]

^ A decent analysis.



^ A overly cynical analysis. The people here are sick of the corruption and the incumbent is an embarrassment, across the political spectrum. We have been laying serious groundwork and the response we are getting, even in the "blue blob" is positive. No-one thinks this is a cake-walk, but we are certainly not pessimistic. Where in the district are you?

If Kokesh wants to win, then he better get every vote he can out of Farmington area and Rio Rancho and I have seen nothing of him in this area. He won't win by trying to cater to Rio Arriba and Santa Fe county. That is not cynical, that is reality. His Republican primary opponent knows this- not sure Kokesh really understands the reality of what it takes to get elected.

[Adam Kokesh]

You've seen nothing of me in Farmington and Rio Rancho? You must not be looking very hard!

[Romantarchist]

What are his chances? Stronger than you think, if you ask me.

New Mexico's 3rd District WAS held by a Republican from 1997-1999. This means from an objective point of view: yes it is winnable. Granted the district was too Democratic for him to hold it for a second term, but that's because he was hardcore conservative. Kokesh sides with the left on many things. He's anything BUT a typical Republican. This gives him advantages that Redmond didn't have. Also, people are turning away from the Democratic Party because of Obama's policies...which is on top of a large turn away from the Republicans because of Bush's policies. In short, people are throwing off the false religion of big government, and the idea of basing a government around liberty and peace is becoming more and more attractive. Our ranks will thrive in the future. Or maybe this is the hopeless optimist and dreamer in me talking and nothing I say has any basis in reality.

I have a friend who lives in Portales who's looking into this campaign since I told him about it and he really likes what he sees. I'm going to follow up with him and see if I can get a commitment from him to vote in the primaries. Also if he can convince a few buddies to vote too.

[Adam Kokesh]

I have a friend who lives in Portales who's looking into this campaign since I told him about it and he really likes what he sees. I'm going to follow up with him and see if I can get a commitment from him to vote in the primaries. Also if he can convince a few buddies to vote too.

Awesome! That's what it's all about! Since we haven't raised $1m, this is how we translate national support into local votes. We also have a virtual phone bank set up and people from all over have already been making calls promoting our local events. Check it out and get signed up!

callforkokesh.com (http://www.callforkokesh.com)

[wd4freedom]

You've seen nothing of me in Farmington and Rio Rancho? You must not be looking very hard!

The issue is no one should have to look hard. You need to have name recognition in the community beyond websites. And if you are this defensive as a candidate you will get crushed in politics. I hope the best for you and am trying to give very honest and unbiased feedback. I know your name because Ive been following RP for several years- my neighbors do not.

While there is an underground community that may know your name- I can assure you that the folks about town, in the stores, in the schools, in the neighborhoods, in the restaurants, etc. do not know your name. First rule in politics- get name recognition......then you can talk policies, positions, etc.

Find some events in Rio Rancho (apolitical) and attend and get your picture in the local Observer and in the Rio Rancho Journal. Folks need to see your NAME/ Pic about 1/ month in a broadcast fashion about town.

[Adam Kokesh]

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snide or defensive. We've been doing everything we can to get to Rio Rancho and Farmington while balancing that against the rest of the district, which is bigger than Pennsylvania! We had a volunteer meeting in Rio Rancho not too long ago and have done a lot of work in Farmington, including "Outshoot a Marine" to celebrate the Marine Corps birthday and make a statement about gun rights. There's is still a lot of work to be done and we need all the help we can get. Normally, my mere presence at an event does not warrant local media coverage. What events would you suggest and how would you suggest getting that kind of coverage and with what specific publications? As for getting in print about once a month, that's a good goal, and I think we're about half way there with a couple articles in the Journal and one in the Alibi if you're talking Rio Rancho area. Getting good coverage is always a struggle. We have a volunteer team called, "Media Maniacs." If you'd like to join and help get coverage for the cause, please email our media coordinator, Jeff Kotowski at jeff@kokeshforcongress.com

[Adam Kokesh]

The district (im in it) is heavily democratic and corrupt to its core. The center of the district is Santa Fe where corruption breeds like pheromoned rabbits. He is making a valiant effort and I applaud him but unless there truly is a shtf event between now and election, he doesn't have a chance.

We've done a more thorough analysis of the demographics of the district and know what we need to win. We don't need a major shift of events, but we do need to flip 10-15k Ds. From your original post in this thread, it didn't seem like you were trying to contribute any "honest and unbiased feedback" in any helpful way, but only to dissuade others from contributing to this exciting campaign. If you're in the district, I could really use your help and advice if done constructively, and look forward to your response to my last post.

Speaking of Santa Fe, have you been following what's going on with the upcoming legislative session? ;)

I have to ask, what gave you the impression that we were catering to Santa Fe and Rio Arriba Counties? If anything, we've been focusing on areas with higher concentrations of Republicans. We were looking forward to being able to run a general election campaign for a year and a half, but when the challenger jumped in, we had to "adjust fire."

[Metal Militia]

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snide or defensive.

You shouldn't need to apologize; you should be applauded for connecting with the grassroots by personally addressing concerns on public internet forums. Such will never be seen from the other top-tier liberty candidates.

I apologize for the occasional snideness shown by people too disconnected from your campaign to realize you thoroughly understand what is needed to win.

Best wishes on the trail.

[wd4freedom]

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound snide or defensive. We've been doing everything we can to get to Rio Rancho and Farmington while balancing that against the rest of the district, which is bigger than Pennsylvania! We had a volunteer meeting in Rio Rancho not too long ago and have done a lot of work in Farmington, including "Outshoot a Marine" to celebrate the Marine Corps birthday and make a statement about gun rights. There's is still a lot of work to be done and we need all the help we can get. Normally, my mere presence at an event does not warrant local media coverage. What events would you suggest and how would you suggest getting that kind of coverage and with what specific publications? As for getting in print about once a month, that's a good goal, and I think we're about half way there with a couple articles in the Journal and one in the Alibi if you're talking Rio Rancho area. Getting good coverage is always a struggle. We have a volunteer team called, "Media Maniacs." If you'd like to join and help get coverage for the cause, please email our media coordinator, Jeff Kotowski at jeff@kokeshforcongress.com

Here are some specifics:
Get your name on a billboard both on I25 between Bernallillo and Santa Fe and also on 550 just north of RR .
Produce a couple of segments for the free cable access show (google Rio Vision)- focus on housing bubble and loss of value of the dollar (both would hit home here)
Attend the Pork and Brew in April- in fact I would enter as a contestant with something like "Kokesh's Freedom Sauce", etc.
Get an appointment to meet with Don Chalmers- the owner of Don Chalmers Ford and approach him about support- he's conservative and would have access to many others in the area (he's very active in the entire ABQ metro region)
Meet the owners of El Pinto Restaurant- they are big supporters of conservative causes (might be a little on the "neocon" side but given the "blueness" of NM right now they might be a great resource to help get your name out.)
Author a letter to the editor and send to the the Rio Rancho Observer- both introducing your self and advocating a position that folks here would relate to- jobs, housing, etc. (I would do this as often as 1/ month targeting a different topic)

Im sure there are many others- these were off the top of my head.

[Nathan Hale]

wd4freedom - now this is the kind of conversation that we need more of on these boards - nice specifics with good local insight!

[TheState]

wd4freedom - Great info!

[MR2Fast2Catch]

Attend the Pork and Brew in April- in fact I would enter as a contestant with something like "Kokesh's Freedom Sauce", etc.

LOL. I really like this idea!

[Travlyr]

Adam's chances of winning... pretty strong if the Ron Paul supporters get back to work and help spread the message to 4x's the number of people that heard the message in 2008.

Certainly, Adam winning New Mexico's 3rd district will not be a cake walk like it was for Ben Ray Lujan. Yet, Adam's message resonates with his generation as well it should. Adam's generation has been screwed by the establishment.

Now it is time for the baby boomer's to stand up on principals and help Adam with constructive feedback, spreading the message, and financial support.

It will not be easy for Adam to win, but it can be done. And it will be worth the effort.

[ronpaulhawaii]

Adam's chances of winning... pretty strong if the Ron Paul supporters get back to work and help spread the message to 4x's the number of people that heard the message in 2008.

Certainly, Adam winning New Mexico's 3rd district will not be a cake walk like it was for Ben Ray Lujan. Yet, Adam's message resonates with his generation as well it should. Adam's generation has been screwed by the establishment.

Now it is time for the baby boomer's to stand up on principals and help Adam with constructive feedback, spreading the message, and financial support.

It will not be easy for Adam to win, but it can be done. And it will be worth the effort.

Hear here! and welcome to the forum :)

[WorldonaString]

Kokesh would make cspan soooo much more interesting. I look forward to seeing him there! I'll be contributing for the birthday bomb.

[Eric21ND]

I wish we would come together and give Adam a $100-200k day and fund the entire primary.

[MR2Fast2Catch]

I wish we would come together and give Adam a $100-200k day and fund the entire primary.

Let's do it on February 1st! Join the FB group:
Adam's Birthday Bomb! (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=176957790501)

[Peace&Freedom]

I hate to be the downer here, but in terms of the obvious specifics, Adam has no chance of winning. He should have picked an open seat in a Republican leaning district if he's intent on running as a Republican (or run for the Democratic nomination in the Democratic district he is running in). He also needs to raise at least $400,000, the bare minimum all winning Congressional candidates raise, based on recent election cycles. Some of this cash should definitely be spent on sponsoring scientific polls that actually include his name, to improve his visibility (otherwise the media will NOT mention him or include him in polls they sponsor, thus softly blackout his candidacy as they did to Paul throughout 2007).

Kokesh should already have a sizable and identifiable base voting bloc firmly in place, like the anti-war voters or gun rights supporters, and should otherwise be reaching out to the populations most likely to be voting (eg, making presentations at senior centers, veterans organizations, etc). Absent any of these essentials, He cannot win and is not viable. We have been through this syndrome a whole bunch of times throughout 2008, so this is just a basic rehash of the dynamics. Having a great candidate is NOT ENOUGH, he/she must enter the right race on the appropriate party line, with enough money and base support to win, just like other politiciians.

[randolphfuller]

Adam's primary problems are racial. He is a half-Jew, half-Indian running in a Republican primary that will bw overwhelmingly white. These people are incredibly ignorant and devoted to war. Adam's activities in Iraq Veterans Against the War will offend nearly all of them. His opponent is a white,businessman from Farmington, who will appeal to Republican primary voters. The district is 61% non-white. Indians and Mexicans can be persuaded to vote Republican in a general election but they will not register as Republicans and vote in a primary. Whoever, wins the Republican primary will face an Hispanic, Democratic incumbent who has made no serious mistakes. All political advisories rate the district "safe Democratic". I know of no basis to disagree with this.
'

[ronpaulhawaii]

I hate to be the downer here, but in terms of the obvious specifics, Adam has no chance of winning. He should have picked an open seat in a Republican leaning district if he's intent on running as a Republican (or run for the Democratic nomination in the Democratic district he is running in). He also needs to raise at least $400,000, the bare minimum all winning Congressional candidates raise, based on recent election cycles. Some of this cash should definitely be spent on sponsoring scientific polls that actually include his name, to improve his visibility (otherwise the media will NOT mention him or include him in polls they sponsor, thus softly blackout his candidacy as they did to Paul throughout 2007).

Kokesh should already have a sizable and identifiable base voting bloc firmly in place, like the anti-war voters or gun rights supporters, and should otherwise be reaching out to the populations most likely to be voting (eg, making presentations at senior centers, veterans organizations, etc). Absent any of these essentials, He cannot win and is not viable. We have been through this syndrome a whole bunch of times throughout 2008, so this is just a basic rehash of the dynamics. Having a great candidate is NOT ENOUGH, he/she must enter the right race on the appropriate party line, with enough money and base support to win, just like other politiciians.

I disagree with the things you open with, but you definitely make a couple good points. The district he is running in is his home district. Picking a non-home distriict for purely demographic reasons has its own set of challenges. As would running as a dem, when he has always been a repub.

IMO, if there is anytime for the GOP to take that seat, this is it, and Adam is the only one who can do that. The campaign has already been talking with the VFW/etc. Getting an early start helped, and come new year things will be ratcheted up...


Adam's primary problems are racial. He is a half-Jew, half-Indian running in a Republican primary that will bw overwhelmingly white. These people are incredibly ignorant and devoted to war. Adam's activities in Iraq Veterans Against the War will offend nearly all of them. His opponent is a white,businessman from Farmington, who will appeal to Republican primary voters. The district is 61% non-white. Indians and Mexicans can be persuaded to vote Republican in a general election but they will not register as Republicans and vote in a primary. Whoever, wins the Republican primary will face an Hispanic, Democratic incumbent who has made no serious mistakes. All political advisories rate the district "safe Democratic". I know of no basis to disagree with this.
'

He is not half jewish/half native, as you state. His mother is Jewish, and he has some Cherokee blood, but his name is German and, at the end of the day, he is American, with a broad mix.

Methinks the "devoted to war" contingent has been waning for sometime now. I, also, disagree that the rank and file are "incredibly ignorant."

A member of the GOP State Exec Committee introduced me to an older lady, at a Christmas Party, who had asked specifically about Adam's War activism (while her husband listened). She had "googled" him and was apprehensive. He started out by reminding her of Goldwater's objection to the Vietnam war and then turned it over to me. I'm not going to get into details, but they were satisfied...

A couple points I will share.

Ron Paul Republicans are not pacifists, we just think there are better (Constitutional) ways to defend our country, and are outraged about the immoral way our military is being used...

FP views are much more relevant in a Presidential race than they are down-ticket...

Finally, the game is changing dramatically with the introduction of the internet. Old models still have value, but are not the bell-weather they once were. (Case in point would be the Catholic community, who are abandoning the Dems due to awareness regarding the abortion issue...) There is a hell of a storm brewing and if anyone can take this "safe" seat. Adam can. Again, I am not going to get into details, but suffice it to say that the incumbant is a local joke who has made mistakes...

[randolphfuller]

One of us does not understand this district and I readily admit it could be me. While I live in New Mexico(near Hobbs) I do not live in the district.We both agree on one thing--Adam is the only Republican who can win the district, although as I explained I think the deck is stacked against him. The Hispanic Catholics will not abandon the incumbent for a Republican--forget that. If by a joke you are referring to the incumbent's long rumored homosexuality, you can forget that too. When it was used against him previously it was widely viewed as damaging the opponent who raised it. The white Democrats around Santa Fe, Taos, and Las Vegas tend to be writer-artist types who while fervently anti-war are also in general gay friendly.You are faced with a REAL kettle of fish!!!

[ronpaulhawaii]

One of us does not understand this district and I readily admit it could be me. While I live in New Mexico(near Hobbs) I do not live in the district.We both agree on one thing--Adam is the only Republican who can win the district, although as I explained I think the deck is stacked against him. The Hispanic Catholics will not abandon the incumbent for a Republican--forget that. If by a joke you are referring to the incumbent's long rumored homosexuality, you can forget that too. When it was used against him previously it was widely viewed as damaging the opponent who raised it. The white Democrats around Santa Fe, Taos, and Las Vegas tend to be writer-artist types who while fervently anti-war are also in general gay friendly.You are faced with a REAL kettle of fish!!!

Yes, it is a real kettle of fish. Yes, it is a difficult district. Far from impossible though, with a candidate like Kokesh

We do not need the entire Hispanic Catholic community to convert, but enough are questioning their loyalties -nationwide - that they are becoming something of a wildcard. A bit of NM history to consider is that the Hispanic community was traditionally republican before the great depression. During the depression, the WPA office was located in the Democrat HQ and people had to switch parties to get work... Now, with O doing the same thing to the left that W did to the right, people are questioning those loyalties.

The incumbent is a joke for many reasons. K4C doesn't need to do anything to raise these issues, they are a perpetual undercurrent that flows completely across the political spectrum. Everyone knows that he was sucked into office, on his fathers shoulders, in the tailwind of O. In fact, he is an embarrassment to most groups.

What is sad is the resistance of a faction in the GOP establishment. Running a primary challenge limits our time spent on the Dem base...

At a Christmas party, I was told by a political consultant (for one of the Gov candidates) that our GOP opponent is starting to doubt his ability to catch up to Kokesh (in money and organization). That is one reason a successful Birthday Bomb (and fundraising in general) is so important. Every donation to Kokesh eats at their confidence... In addition, the GOP handlers must see the handwriting on the wall. Some may be living in a fantasy world that the "tea-party" shift is enough, alone, to swing this district, but anyone with a lick of common sense can see that it will take more than that in this district. So, they are left with a choice. A chance of a win with a charismatic Ron Paul Republican, or a certain loss to a joke of an Obamocrat...

The sooner K4C can get back to running the race against the incumbent, the better... All help is appreciated

[Travlyr]

Adam Kokesh's grass roots campaign for congress is the most exciting campaign since Ron Paul's run for president.

And, while our treasure chest is small, our resolve is as big as New Mexico's 3rd district.

[awsharp]

Adam Kokesh's grass roots campaign for congress is the most exciting campaign since Ron Paul's run for president.

And, while our treasure chest is small, our resolve is as big as New Mexico's 3rd district.

Couldn't have said it better myself! ;)

[Travlyr]

I hate to be the downer here, but in terms of the obvious specifics, Adam has no chance of winning....

No need to be a downer. While I am convinced that Adam Kokesh and his "grass-roots" team appreciates your feedback and suggestions, I think you underestimate what is going on here in New Mexico's 3rd District.

It is not about the money... it is about the message, and yes, it is a big mountain to climb.

Watch this race for congress. It will be a most convincing win for liberty!