bobbyw24
11-01-2009, 09:01 AM
Some wonder if Crist's embrace of Obama's stimulus will hurt him.
TALLAHASSEE - It was supposed to be easier than this when Gov. Charlie Crist announced in the spring that he would run for the U.S. Senate.
Crist, a popular first-term governor, would coast to the nomination with the support of the Republican establishment and be favored to defeat the Democratic candidate for the seat, likely U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, in the November 2010 general election.
Republicans would hold on to the seat as they tried to nudge the Democratic majority in the Senate back below the 60-seat threshold needed to block a GOP filibuster.
http://www.marcorubiostore.com/product_images/m/magnetic_car_signs_thumb__90739_thumb.jpg
But Crist's comfortable lead over his Republican primary challenger, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, has continued to erode in recent months, down from 31 points in June to 15 points in October, according to Quinnipiac University polls.
Lawmakers and other political observers say Crist's full-throated support in the winter and early spring of President Barack Obama's stimulus plan - an early Rubio Web video featured a picture of Crist embracing Obama at a political event in Florida - has helped portray the governor as out of step with conservatives.
"I'm sure there are things that they've seen from the governor that have not been to their liking," said state Rep. Ronald "Doc" Renuart, R-Ponte Vedra Beach, "and they're looking for other options in this race."
Others say Rubio is a skilled campaigner in his own right, and the GOP establishment might have miscalculated by backing Crist so strongly.
"The party ought never take a position in a primary," said Sen. Steve Wise, R-Jacksonville. "It just kind of, I think, gets on everybody's nerves."
'It's too early to say'
Crist's campaign points out that he still leads Rubio by a solid margin. And some observers caution against reading too much into the trend.
"I think it's too early to say he's in trouble in the race," said Matthew Corrigan, a political science professor at the University of North Florida, "but clearly he's in a race now."
Even Rubio's campaign is downplaying the latest numbers.
"The last polls were encouraging, but we're not celebrating anything at this point," said spokesman Alex Burgos.
Part of the problem for Crist is, somewhat counter-intuitively, he might have been too popular to begin with.
Even with the dip in his job-approval and campaign numbers, Crist remains a relatively popular figure in a nation where the economy is still uneven and many incumbents are taking the blame.
"Crist has sort of defied political gravity for the last year and a half or so," Corrigan said.
Indeed, the Quinnipiac poll noted those who approve of Crist still outnumber those who disapprove 59-31 percent.
"Floridians now give Crist the worst overall job-approval [rating] of his governorship ... but governors of many other states would sell their first-born, or at least their running mate, for numbers like that," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, when releasing the October poll.
Conservative discontent
A key element of Rubio's growing strength has come from efforts to whip up conservative discontent at Crist's vigorous support of the Obama stimulus plan, along with the governor's backing of state involvement in the property insurance market and measures intended to combat global warming.
The displeasure of GOP activists is clearest, some say, in Rubio's wins at several straw polls held by Republican committees across Florida. While those groups aren't necessarily representative of the party as a whole, they're indicators that Crist has problems on his right.
"It should be a wake-up call to Charlie that he's doing something wrong or he's done something wrong and he needs to fix it," said Chris Ingram, a Republican political consultant and president of 411 Communications who said he'll likely back Rubio in the primary.
Reihan Salam, a conservative political columnist for Forbes magazine, ripped Crist as "America's Worst Governor" in a recent piece.
"Incredibly, fiscal conservatives have more to admire in the much-maligned Democratic governors of New Jersey and New York, Jon Corzine and David Paterson, who've done far more to cut popular spending programs than Crist," Salam wrote.
Crist has pointed out that state government's budget has shrunk dramatically during his time in office.
But observers say that whatever is behind the rise of Rubio, Crist has plenty of time in political terms to turn things around.
"The good news for Charlie," Ingram said, "is he's got almost a year to change course."
brandon.larrabee@jacksonville.com, (678) 977-3709
http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2009-11-01/story/conservative_discontent_fuels_rubio
TALLAHASSEE - It was supposed to be easier than this when Gov. Charlie Crist announced in the spring that he would run for the U.S. Senate.
Crist, a popular first-term governor, would coast to the nomination with the support of the Republican establishment and be favored to defeat the Democratic candidate for the seat, likely U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, in the November 2010 general election.
Republicans would hold on to the seat as they tried to nudge the Democratic majority in the Senate back below the 60-seat threshold needed to block a GOP filibuster.
http://www.marcorubiostore.com/product_images/m/magnetic_car_signs_thumb__90739_thumb.jpg
But Crist's comfortable lead over his Republican primary challenger, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, has continued to erode in recent months, down from 31 points in June to 15 points in October, according to Quinnipiac University polls.
Lawmakers and other political observers say Crist's full-throated support in the winter and early spring of President Barack Obama's stimulus plan - an early Rubio Web video featured a picture of Crist embracing Obama at a political event in Florida - has helped portray the governor as out of step with conservatives.
"I'm sure there are things that they've seen from the governor that have not been to their liking," said state Rep. Ronald "Doc" Renuart, R-Ponte Vedra Beach, "and they're looking for other options in this race."
Others say Rubio is a skilled campaigner in his own right, and the GOP establishment might have miscalculated by backing Crist so strongly.
"The party ought never take a position in a primary," said Sen. Steve Wise, R-Jacksonville. "It just kind of, I think, gets on everybody's nerves."
'It's too early to say'
Crist's campaign points out that he still leads Rubio by a solid margin. And some observers caution against reading too much into the trend.
"I think it's too early to say he's in trouble in the race," said Matthew Corrigan, a political science professor at the University of North Florida, "but clearly he's in a race now."
Even Rubio's campaign is downplaying the latest numbers.
"The last polls were encouraging, but we're not celebrating anything at this point," said spokesman Alex Burgos.
Part of the problem for Crist is, somewhat counter-intuitively, he might have been too popular to begin with.
Even with the dip in his job-approval and campaign numbers, Crist remains a relatively popular figure in a nation where the economy is still uneven and many incumbents are taking the blame.
"Crist has sort of defied political gravity for the last year and a half or so," Corrigan said.
Indeed, the Quinnipiac poll noted those who approve of Crist still outnumber those who disapprove 59-31 percent.
"Floridians now give Crist the worst overall job-approval [rating] of his governorship ... but governors of many other states would sell their first-born, or at least their running mate, for numbers like that," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, when releasing the October poll.
Conservative discontent
A key element of Rubio's growing strength has come from efforts to whip up conservative discontent at Crist's vigorous support of the Obama stimulus plan, along with the governor's backing of state involvement in the property insurance market and measures intended to combat global warming.
The displeasure of GOP activists is clearest, some say, in Rubio's wins at several straw polls held by Republican committees across Florida. While those groups aren't necessarily representative of the party as a whole, they're indicators that Crist has problems on his right.
"It should be a wake-up call to Charlie that he's doing something wrong or he's done something wrong and he needs to fix it," said Chris Ingram, a Republican political consultant and president of 411 Communications who said he'll likely back Rubio in the primary.
Reihan Salam, a conservative political columnist for Forbes magazine, ripped Crist as "America's Worst Governor" in a recent piece.
"Incredibly, fiscal conservatives have more to admire in the much-maligned Democratic governors of New Jersey and New York, Jon Corzine and David Paterson, who've done far more to cut popular spending programs than Crist," Salam wrote.
Crist has pointed out that state government's budget has shrunk dramatically during his time in office.
But observers say that whatever is behind the rise of Rubio, Crist has plenty of time in political terms to turn things around.
"The good news for Charlie," Ingram said, "is he's got almost a year to change course."
brandon.larrabee@jacksonville.com, (678) 977-3709
http://jacksonville.com/news/metro/2009-11-01/story/conservative_discontent_fuels_rubio