NEW KY Poll results.

[specsaregood]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate



Kentucky Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 30, 2009

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Trey Grayson (R)
44%
Daniel Mongiardo (D)
37%
Some Other Candidate
4%
Not Sure
14%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Rand Paul (R)
43%
Daniel Mongiardo (D)
38%
Some Other Candidate
6%
Not Sure
13%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Trey Grayson (R)
40%
Jack Conway (D)
40%
Some Other Candidate
3%
Not Sure
17%

2010 Kentucky Senate Race
Rand Paul (R)
38%
Jack Conway (D)
42%
Some Other Candidate
4%
Not Sure
15%



We need this "Not Sure" character to drop out and endorse Rand!



Thirteen percent (13%) of the state’s voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while three percent (3%) regard him very unfavorably. Paul has 16% very favorables and nine percent (9%) very unfavorables.

As for the Democrats, Mongiardo is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 18%. Seventeen percent (17%) have a very favorable opinion of Conway, with 11% who view him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

But all four candidates have some name-building to do since a sizable percentage of Kentucky voters don’t enough about them to even venture a soft opinion.

Only five percent (5%) of voters in the state give good or excellent marks to the U.S. economy. Forty-five percent (45%0 rate it as poor.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say the economy is getting better, while 37% say it’s getting worse. For 21%, it’s staying the same.

However, 52% worry that the federal government will do too much in reacting to the nation’s economic problems. Thirty-two percent (32%) fear the government won’t do enough.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Kentucky voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Fifty-seven (57%) percent oppose it. Opposition is higher in Kentucky than nationally. As in much of the country, the antis feel more strongly: 25% strongly favor the plan, but 45% strongly oppose it.

Twenty-four percent (24%) say the quality of health care will get better if the reform plan passes, but 53% say it will get worse.

While one of the stated goals of the plan is to drive down the cost of health care, only 17% say the plan will actually achieve that. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the cost will go up.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) expect passage of the plan to increase the federal budget deficit. Five percent (5%) think the plan will reduce the deficit, and 19% say it will have no impact.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters in the state believe it is at least somewhat likely that taxes will be raised on the middle class to pay for the health care plan. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it is very likely. Only14% say a middle-class tax hike is not very or not at all likely.

So Rand has higher very favorables than Charlie Grayson; but also higher unfavorables.

[amisspelledword]

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet

In it to win it.

[lx43]

Republicans look like they’re in for a tough fight in Kentucky to maintain the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Jim Bunning.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state finds the two leading GOP candidates beating one top Democratic contender but struggling against the other.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson beats Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo by seven points 44% to 37%. Four percent (4%) of Kentucky voters like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. Both men have announced their candidacies. Mongiardo was the unsuccessful Democratic challenger to Bunning in 2004.

Grayson runs dead-even 40% to 40% against another announced Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Jack Conway, with just three percent (3%) opting for some other candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.

Rand Paul, an opthamologist and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, also has announced his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Kentucky. Paul beats Mongiardo by five points – 43% to 38%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate, and 13% are not sure.

But Paul trails Conway by four – 42% to 38% - in that hypothetical match-up. Four percent (4%) choose some other candidate. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Thirteen percent (13%) of the state’s voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while three percent (3%) regard him very unfavorably. Paul has 16% very favorables and nine percent (9%) very unfavorables.

As for the Democrats, Mongiardo is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 18%. Seventeen percent (17%) have a very favorable opinion of Conway, with 11% who view him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

But all four candidates have some name-building to do since a sizable percentage of Kentucky voters don’t enough about them to even venture a soft opinion.

Only five percent (5%) of voters in the state give good or excellent marks to the U.S. economy. Forty-five percent (45%0 rate it as poor.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say the economy is getting better, while 37% say it’s getting worse. For 21%, it’s staying the same.

However, 52% worry that the federal government will do too much in reacting to the nation’s economic problems. Thirty-two percent (32%) fear the government won’t do enough.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Kentucky voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Fifty-seven (57%) percent oppose it. Opposition is higher in Kentucky than nationally. As in much of the country, the antis feel more strongly: 25% strongly favor the plan, but 45% strongly oppose it.

Twenty-four percent (24%) say the quality of health care will get better if the reform plan passes, but 53% say it will get worse.

While one of the stated goals of the plan is to drive down the cost of health care, only 17% say the plan will actually achieve that. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the cost will go up.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) expect passage of the plan to increase the federal budget deficit. Five percent (5%) think the plan will reduce the deficit, and 19% say it will have no impact.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters in the state believe it is at least somewhat likely that taxes will be raised on the middle class to pay for the health care plan. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it is very likely. Only14% say a middle-class tax hike is not very or not at all likely.

John McCain carried Kentucky by 17 points over Barack Obama in last November’s election. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the president’s job performance, including 29% who strongly approve. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove of the job Obama is doing, with 41% who strongly disapprove. This is slightly worse than the president’s job approval ratings nationally as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and Ohio.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) approve of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance, with 17% who strongly approve. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove, including 16% who strongly disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent data on the 2009 governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia along with the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Ohio.

[JoshLowry]

Looking good.

Interesting that they didn't poll/didn't include any results for Rand vs Trey.

[lx43]

Rand has a good chance against all these in my opinion.

[specsaregood]

sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet

In it to win it.

Yeah, its just too bad there isn't a head to head for the primary contenders.

[Epic]

9% very unfavorable???

Who are these people?

[lx43]

9% very unfavorable???

Who are these people?

Idiots

[Matt Collins]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate)


From the article



Republicans look like they’re in for a tough fight in Kentucky to maintain the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Jim Bunning.



The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state finds the two leading GOP candidates beating one top Democratic contender but struggling against the other.



Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson beats Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo by seven points 44% to 37%. Four percent (4%) of Kentucky voters like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. Both men have announced their candidacies. Mongiardo was the unsuccessful Democratic challenger to Bunning in 2004.



Grayson runs dead-even 40% to 40% against another announced Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Jack Conway, with just three percent (3%) opting for some other candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.



Rand Paulhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/2.gif (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate#), an opthamologist and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, also has announced his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Kentucky. Paul beats Mongiardo by five points – 43% to 38%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate, and 13% are not sure.


But Paul trails Conway by four – 42% to 38% - in that hypothetical match-up. Four percent (4%) choose some other candidate. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.


Thirteen percent (13%) of the state’s voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while three percent (3%) regard him very unfavorably. Paul has 16% very favorables and nine percent (9%) very unfavorables.



As for the Democrats, Mongiardo is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 18%. Seventeen percent (17%) have a very favorable opinion of Conway, with 11% who view him very unfavorably.



At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.



But all four candidates have some name-building to do since a sizable percentage of Kentucky voters don’t enough about them to even venture a soft opinion.


Only five percent (5%) of voters in the state give good or excellent marks to the U.S. economy. Forty-five percent (45%) rate it as poor.



Thirty-six percent (36%) say the economy is getting better, while 37% say it’s getting worse. For 21%, it’s staying the same.



However, 52% worry that the federal government will do too much in reacting to the nation’s economic problems. Thirty-two percent (32%) fear the government won’t do enough.



Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Kentucky voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Fifty-seven (57%) percent oppose it. Opposition is higher in Kentucky than nationally (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/september_2009/health_care_reform). As in much of the country, the antis feel more strongly: 25% strongly favor the plan, but 45% strongly oppose it.



Twenty-four percent (24%) say the quality of health care will get better if the reform plan passes, but 53% say it will get worse.



While one of the stated goals of the plan is to drive down the cost of health care, only 17% say the plan will actually achieve that. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the cost will go up.



Sixty-nine percent (69%) expect passage of the plan to increase the federal budget deficit. Five percent (5%) think the plan will reduce the deficit, and 19% say it will have no impact.



Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters in the state believe it is at least somewhat likely that taxes (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate#) will be raised on the middle class to pay for the health care plan. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it is very likely. Only14% say a middle-class tax hike is not very or not at all likely.



John McCain carried Kentucky by 17 points over Barack Obama in last November’s election. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the president’s job performance, including 29% who strongly approve. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove of the job Obama is doing, with 41% who strongly disapprove. This is slightly worse than the president’s job approval ratings nationally as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll).



Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from Arkansas (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/2010_arkansas_senate_lincoln_runs_behind_four_gop_ challengers), California (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/california/election_2010_california_senate), Colorado (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_senate_race), Connecticut (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/election_2010_connecticut_senate_race), Delaware (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/delaware/election_2010_delaware_senate), Iowa (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/iowa/election_2010_iowa_senate_race), Missouri (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/election_2010_missouri_senate), Nevada (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/election_2010_nevada_senate_race), New Hampshire (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2010_new_hampshire_senate), New York (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_senate_race), North Carolina (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/election_2010_state_polls/north_carolina/crosstabs_2010_north_carolina_senate_september_15_ 2009) and Ohio (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/election_2010_ohio_senate_race).



Fifty-nine percent (59%) approve of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance, with 17% who strongly approve. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove, including 16% who strongly disapprove.



Rasmussen Reports also has released recent data on the 2009 governor’s races in New Jersey (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor) and Virginia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election) along with the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_election), California (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/california/election_2010_california_governor_election2), Colorado (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_governor_s_race), Iowa (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/document_archive/september_2009/health_care_system_september_30_october_1_2009), New York (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_york/election_2010_new_york_governor_election) and Ohio (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/ohio/election_2010_ohio_governor_election).

[Matt Collins]

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2009. The margin (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate#) of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology)).

[Matt Collins]

500 voters is not large enough of a sample. Plus telephone surveying is a bit flawed too because many individuals don't have landlines anymore.

[itshappening]

it's really bad for Grayson to be in a dead heat with Conway, Rand you would expect because he doesn't have the name recognition but Grayson has been SOS for 7 years??

that is awful and the GOP need to wake up.

[lx43]

Has Rand conducted any internal polling?

[Cowlesy]

Let me know if Charlie Cook does any polling. His polls are always interesting.

[specsaregood]

9% very unfavorable???
Who are these people?

Well the polling was among likely voters and not limited by party.
Rand's spread isn't that bad really:



Favor/Unfavorable spread:
Grayson: +10 (+13,-3)
Paul: + 7 (+16,-9)
Conway: +6 (+17,-11)
Mongiardo: -1 (+17,-18)


It appears that Grayson's plan of staying out of the limelight, and not taking any positions is working out for him in that he isn't giving people a reason to not like him. The entirety of the -9 for paul for example could be people that want Obamacare and think the banker bailout and stimulus is a good thing. He has been very outspoken against those issues which would put him at odds for those voters.

[lx43]

Well the polling was among likely voters and not limited by party.
Rand's spread isn't that bad really:



It appears that Grayson's plan of staying out of the limelight, and not taking any positions is working out for him in that he isn't giving people a reason to not like him.

Wait till Grayson starts talking. :D

[specsaregood]

Wait till Grayson starts talking. :D

Who says he will?

[Austin]

500 voters is not large enough of a sample. Plus telephone surveying is a bit flawed too because many individuals don't have landlines anymore.

Are we still saying this? :rolleyes: :p We said the same thing during Ron's campaign and the polls were right almost every time.

What is a good sample, and what is a more accurate method than telephone polling?

[Austin]

Well the polling was among likely voters and not limited by party.
Rand's spread isn't that bad really:



It appears that Grayson's plan of staying out of the limelight, and not taking any positions is working out for him in that he isn't giving people a reason to not like him. The entirety of the -9 for paul for example could be people that want Obamacare and think the banker bailout and stimulus is a good thing. He has been very outspoken against those issues which would put him at odds for those voters.

Do you have access to the crosstabs?

[brandon]

Was really hoping to see a Rand Vs Charles Merwin III matchup. Oh well, still good results.

[Matt Collins]

Are we still saying this? :rolleyes: :p We said the same thing during Ron's campaign and the polls were right almost every time.

What is a good sample, and what is a more accurate method than telephone polling?
I'm not saying that the results are not broadly reflective of the situation on the ground, but that the numbers are probably not quite as accurate as they are purported to be.

1- You need 1200-1500 voters to get an accurate sample size.
2- The problem with landline telephone polls is that they leave out a great amount of people under the age of 35 years old.


Read Zogby's book: "The Way We'll Be" to get a better understanding.

[TruthisTreason]

9% very unfavorable???

Who are these people?

Party hacks.... :p

[specsaregood]

1- You need 1200-1500 voters to get an accurate sample size.


You don't know what you are talking about. A sample size of 500 for this election is quite large and would be fairly accurate. Just wondering...have you ever studied statistics at all?



2- The problem with landline telephone polls is that they leave out a great amount of people under the age of 35 years old.

That much is true.

[angelatc]

2- The problem with landline telephone polls is that they leave out a great amount of people under the age of 35 years old.

.

Those are also the people least likely to vote.

[Cowlesy]

Party hacks.... :p

The party hacks, and those who immediately associate his father's hard anti-war/non-intervention stance with him.

I'm quite comfortable with a 9% very unfavorable --- it's pretty easy to tell who they are.

[Allan Bartlett]

Maybe I missed it, but what was their result of Rand vs Trey head to head in the primary?

[specsaregood]

Maybe I missed it, but what was their result of Rand vs Trey head to head in the primary?

Nope.

/me dons the silver-lined cap.
They ran them and Rand was winning so they decided not to release them.
/me takes the cap off.

[Matt Collins]

You don't know what you are talking about. A sample size of 500 for this election is quite large and would be fairly accurate. Just wondering...have you ever studied statistics at all?I was always taught that about 1200-1500 was needed.



Those are also the people least likely to vote.Except in this election Rand will bring a higher % of them out than other elections.

[specsaregood]

I was always taught that about 1200-1500 was needed.


I don't know why you would be taught that. It varies based on a number of factors.

500 is a good sample size for this poll.
There is even a handy online calculator for it: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

For a population size of 1,827,586 (everybody that voted in the 2008 election.)
95% confidence level
A spread of 4.5 of the poll in the OP.
Would need a sample size of: 474. There were 500 polled in the sample we are talkinga bout.
To have a 99% confidence level (which is not very commonly used) you would only need a sample size of: 821 which is still far less than 1200-1500 you suggested is necessary.

It's all math.....

More good info here: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#two

[CableNewsJunkie]

We need this "Not Sure" character to drop out and endorse Rand!




"Not Sure" is destined for the House of Representin'

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/08/03/idiocracyM_070803013321451_wideweb__300x427.jpg

[Cowlesy]

"Not Sure" is destined for the House of Representin'

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/08/03/idiocracyM_070803013321451_wideweb__300x427.jpg

Winner of the thread.

[RandomUser]

"Not Sure" is destined for the House of Representin'

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/08/03/idiocracyM_070803013321451_wideweb__300x427.jpg

Maybe Not Sure will endorse =====> RandO-The Senate Mutilator???

[Matt Collins]

"Not Sure" is destined for the House of Representin'

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/08/03/idiocracyM_070803013321451_wideweb__300x427.jpg


Best movie ever...... Does President Camacho remind you of anyone? :confused: :D






http://cruzweb.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/idiocracy.jpg

[Matt Collins]

YouTube - Idiocracy - Trailer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0yQunhOaU0)

[hueylong]

The Most Important Thing from the Rasmussen Poll is this.

Rand beats Mongiardo in the head to head, and is withing the Margin of Error (MOE) against Conway.

Trey has basically no "electability" argument to use against Rand. That was the ONE THING he could beat Rand over the head with among rank and file Republicans.

What is MOST IMPORTANT now, is defining Rand for Republican Primary Voters before Trey is able to. To me, that means producing a GOOD biographical :30 TV commercial that positions Rand NOT AS THE SON OF RON PAUL, but as a god-fearing, wife-loving Eye Doctor in Bowling Green Kentucky who has supported smaller government and lower taxes in Kentucky since founding the Kentucky Taxpayer's Union in 1994.

Just my opinion -- but if they can't get a good bio spot up -- Rand will get chewed up and spit out by the smears on RP and the Revolution.

[rp08orbust]

It's all math.....

It's all statistics. (Not the same.)

Skewed samples are always a possibility, and there is no mathematical way of accounting for that.

[itshappening]

I'm not saying that the results are not broadly reflective of the situation on the ground, but that the numbers are probably not quite as accurate as they are purported to be.

1- You need 1200-1500 voters to get an accurate sample size.
2- The problem with landline telephone polls is that they leave out a great amount of people under the age of 35 years old.


Read Zogby's book: "The Way We'll Be" to get a better understanding.

Rasmussen weight the demographics, there's a lot that goes into it. they probably ask over 1000 people but have to reweight it, they also bias to older people because they vote in elections.

it will be biased to KY demographics and they've proven to be very accurate pollster so worth taking note of!

[RonPaulFanInGA]

percent (13%) of the state’s voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while three percent (3%) regard him very unfavorably. Paul has 16% very favorables and nine percent (9%) very unfavorables.

Does Paul have a higher name ID than Grayson? Usually that is what having more people having an opinion of you means in these polls.

[rp08orbust]

Does Paul have a higher name ID than Grayson? Usually that is what having more people having an opinion of you means in these polls.

It's also an indication of having taken positions.

Does anyone know what Ron Paul's unfavorable ratings are in his district?

[furface]

Early polls usually skew towards recognized names and party insiders.

Paul is going to have a difficult time with his "blowback" positions. That's probably where a lot of his negatives come from.

"Paul blames the United States for terrorism against it." That's what his opponents are going to say. His response should be something to the extent that "why should we waste American lives and resources fighting wars for Iraqis, Afghanis, and Pakistanis? At some point they should step up and do this for themselves. Furthermore, if we want to do nation building, we should be doing it in Mexico which effects us way more." He needs to spin it so that it paints Muslims in an unfavorable way and that we shouldn't be the ones to protect them against themselves.

I'm not anti-Muslim, just a realist. If there's the slightest hint that he's taking the Muslim point of view, he's finished.

[erowe1]

The poll definitely is encouraging. But one thing to keep in mind (and I'm not trying to take the wind out of anyone's sails) is that when it only polls the potential general election results, there's a big partisan factor where most Republican voters will automatically choose the Republican over the Democrat, so that it doesn't give a good indication of what leanings people have for the Republican primary. I recall in Connecticut, the only polls that had been done over the Summer had Schiff at 0% when polling for the Republican primary, but the polls that were for the general election had him within striking distance against Dodd because the anti-Dodd people would have chosen any Republican over Dodd.

[Matt Collins]

It's also an indication of having taken positions.

Does anyone know what Ron Paul's unfavorable ratings are in his district?
Exactly. You can't hate what you don't know. No one knows Grayson's policies so they can't hate his policies (or him).

[specsaregood]

Bump for crosstab data? Does bradley have access to that?

[Dsylexic]

Early polls usually skew towards recognized names and party insiders.

Paul is going to have a difficult time with his "blowback" positions. That's probably where a lot of his negatives come from.

"Paul blames the United States for terrorism against it." That's what his opponents are going to say. His response should be something to the extent that "why should we waste American lives and resources fighting wars for Iraqis, Afghanis, and Pakistanis? At some point they should step up and do this for themselves. Furthermore, if we want to do nation building, we should be doing it in Mexico which effects us way more." He needs to spin it so that it paints Muslims in an unfavorable way and that we shouldn't be the ones to protect them against themselves.

I'm not anti-Muslim, just a realist. If there's the slightest hint that he's taking the Muslim point of view, he's finished.

what,sir, is the Muslim point of view?. care to explain why 'muslims' should have to be eternally thankful for the kind american warriors?.
why stand for any principles if you are embarrassed about it. embarrassed to criticise the american empire and its meddling in the middle east.

[Ethek]

what,sir, is the Muslim point of view?. care to explain why 'muslims' should have to be eternally thankful for the kind american warriors?.
why stand for any principles if you are embarrassed about it. embarrassed to criticise the american empire and its meddling in the middle east.

Rand does not have any 'Blowback' positions. His positions are for strong national defense, defense taking up to 80% of the Federal budget and constitutionally declared wars.

Lets not muddy Rands position with our own agendas. Rand has his message, he articulates it well and he needs us to get it out to the people of Kentucky.

[TruthisTreason]

Rand does not have any 'Blowback' positions. His positions are for strong national defense, defense taking up to 80% of the Federal budget and constitutionally declared wars.

Lets not muddy Rands position with our own agendas. Rand has his message, he articulates it well and he needs us to get it out to the people of Kentucky.

Bingo!

[MRoCkEd]

Terrorists are bad, mkay?

[erowe1]

Interventionism is also bad, regardless of whether its via declared or undeclared wars. If Rand isn't noninterventionist, then he should say so and not string us along, so that we can all withdraw our support. Maybe we should demand a clear answer on this before we have any more money bombs. I honestly was not aware that there was some ambiguity about whether or not Rand was a noninterventionist. But if he's not, that's a deal breaker.

Edit: Looking again at Rand's issues page, even though his section on defense leaves tons of wiggle room, his section on sovereignty where he's explicitly against foreign alliances and the UN fills in some of the holes. I'd say that whoever said he doesn't have any "blowback" positions either misinterpreted his stance, or else the website is misleading. It looks to me like it's pretty fair for us to say that Rand is noninterventionist. This is good, since it's not only the right position, but also the winning one politically, since only 12% of American voters support us being the policeman of the world. But again, if I've misinterpreted anything, then the ball is in Rand's court to come out and clarify this.

[Ethek]

Interventionism is also bad, regardless of whether its via declared or undeclared wars. If Rand isn't noninterventionist, then he should say so and not string us along, so that we can all withdraw our support. Maybe we should demand a clear answer on this before we have any more money bombs. I honestly was not aware that there was some ambiguity about whether or not Rand was a noninterventionist. But if he's not, that's a deal breaker.

Edit: Looking again at Rand's issues page, even though his section on defense leaves tons of wiggle room, his section on sovereignty where he's explicitly against foreign alliances and the UN fills in some of the holes. I'd say that whoever said he doesn't have any "blowback" positions either misinterpreted his stance, or else the website is misleading. It looks to me like it's pretty fair for us to say that Rand is noninterventionist. This is good, since it's not only the right position, but also the winning one politically, since only 12% of American voters support us being the policeman of the world. But again, if I've misinterpreted anything, then the ball is in Rand's court to come out and clarify this.

Rand is for the Constitution. Rand is for National Sovereignty and Rand is for Strong National Defense. Those things are not mutually exclusive. Still, his message is aimed at the people of Kentucky.

Overall the philosophy of liberty is a pretty nuanced thing. Rand does understand it but it will take a lot of time to establish the value of the whole philosophy in the NeoConservative mindset. Anyone that is ' pro-intervention' does not make the connection that liberty cannot be expected to thrive in a climate of continual war.

Right here and now (in Kentucky) Rand is strong National Defense and for Constitutionally declared wars. Its a fact and its his stance to any possible voter. Its a big disservice to Rand to put words in his mouth on this issue, especially in Kentucky.

[erowe1]

Rand is for the Constitution. Rand is for National Sovereignty and Rand is for Strong National Defense. Those things are not mutually exclusive. Still, his message is aimed at the people of Kentucky.

Overall the philosophy of liberty is a pretty nuanced thing. Rand does understand it but it will take a lot of time to establish the value of the whole philosophy in the NeoConservative mindset. Anyone that is ' pro-intervention' does not make the connection that liberty cannot be expected to thrive in a climate of continual war.

Right here and now (in Kentucky) Rand is strong National Defense and for Constitutionally declared wars. Its a fact and its his stance to any possible voter. Its a big disservice to Rand to put words in his mouth on this issue, especially in Kentucky.

I'm more interested in doing service for the cause of what is right than I am for the cause of just anyone whose last name happens to be Paul. Noninterventionism can lose in this race in two ways. It can lose by the Rand campaign deciding that he can't win by running on a noninterventionist platform (which would be foolish, since only 12% of voters support interventionism), and thus him choosing not to adopt that policy explicitly. Or it can lose by him adopting that policy and then getting beaten in either the primary or general election by someone else who doesn't. If you're saying that Rand is choosing the former course, then noninterventionism has already lost, and he might as well just drop out. If he is not choosing that course, then it's not doing him a disservice to say that his position is what it is. In fact, since the noninterventionist position is the most politically popular one anyway, it's doing him positive good. Plus, even though he doesn't spell it out as clearly as he might on his website, he does indicate enough that it's fair to say that the interventionist position is mutually exclusive with clear positions he does take.

[Ethek]

Mike Huckabee, Christian Leader that he is won Kentucky by beating the drums of war and offering a crusade in the last primary here. Among republican primary voters in Kentucky it is a stark sell to expect those very same primary voters to have had a change of mind.

There is a pro-liberty tide thats growing. Liberty protected by a Constitution that restrains the power of the Federal Government against its citizens. It can't be exclusive in any way. The 'pro war' people must be assured that National Defense will be protected under a restored Constitution.

Anti Interventionist must also be assured that liberty will thrive as expected under a constitution that has been restored. The intention of the founders was against entangling alliances.

Whatever the issue, it can be transcended by the concept that a true an working constitution will protect the liberty of the individual. Respect the rights of individuals everywhere but protect liberties here at home first and formost. It does not mean being a pacifist. It also means that instead of interventionalism we set examples to live and being extremely prosperous under a free society. That model being the best to spread the message of freedom (not democracy or tyranny of the mob) to other countries, instead of continual warfare.

I have yet to see how it can be articulated for everyone to be assured all of the time whatever the issue. The two party system loves for people to be mired in issues. Campaigning for liberty and the Constitution I tell myself that I have to be self-assured that what we are working for is a working constitution. Rand is an awesome tool for that and I hope that specific issues do not take away from how much of an asset he would be in Government. You have to work within the rules of any system until you are in a position to change it. Right now Rand is running in a Republican Primary in Kentucky.

[Aratus]

jack conway expects and perhaps wants rand paul to the g.o.p guy, despite or because
of the cloth coat republican solidifaction of the political voting block that made senator bunning's victories
possible. jack conway lobbed a big money, big coal anthracite soft coal charge at the lt. gov and as folks here know,
trey grayson having both bill clinton and mitt romney as polictical templates has generated up a ton of centrist talk and then some.
do keep an eye of jack conway... he either expects that rand will turn grayson into the worst flipflopper going and loose
by 2 percent, or HE WILL CAKEWALK TROUNCE TREY GRAYSON after several spirited debates. please
pause before accepting grapevine gossip from jack conway's beehive of activity. we know
he expects to move past the lt. governor as it stands now, he has a money lead.

[Nathan Hale]

Odd that the Rasmussen poll didn't do head-to-head primary matchups.

[TCE]

Odd that the Rasmussen poll didn't do head-to-head primary matchups.

While it is definitely awkward, it isn't needed as much right now. Had Rand been doing poorly against Grayson, his numbers would have been much worse than Trey's. However, they showed him within five points of Grayson, meaning that he is still a slight underdog, but not nearly as much as it seems. Think what will happen when Rand actually begins to spend money.

[skyorbit]

Idiots

Warmongers

[Nathan Hale]

While it is definitely awkward, it isn't needed as much right now. Had Rand been doing poorly against Grayson, his numbers would have been much worse than Trey's. However, they showed him within five points of Grayson, meaning that he is still a slight underdog, but not nearly as much as it seems. Think what will happen when Rand actually begins to spend money.

I agree it's not that important, I don't think these polls in general are particularly important right now, at least, as you say, until Rand starts spending money.