We had to have Raised ATLEAST $4.5 million...here's why...

[Perry]

Please note that this is semi scientific and not just a swag.
Before the last week drive the message from Ron Paul said we easily beat last quarters number of $2.5 million. So lets say at that point we were at $3 million. I think most would agree that's a fair estimate. Plus $1,200,000.000 for this weeks online drive would put us at $4.2 million. Then we would have to add in the additional funds that were sent by mail and other donations from Rons fund raisers/dinners etc. Again I think a very conservative number for these would be $300,000.00. That would put us at $4.5 Million MINIMUM!

Agree disagree?

[Chernitsky]

agree

[FreedomLover]

Conversely, when they said "We will exceed last quarter, the question is by how much," maybe they had already taken into account the upcoming last-minute drive as well as an estimation of how much they will recieve in mail-ins.

So, maybe the real number is somewhere between 3 and 3.5 million?

Im lowballing it just to give myself a surprise when the number is bigger than I thought, we don't want to make the mistake of last quarter, when people we're expecting 10 million or more.

[erowe1]

But the statement about beating last quarter's amount must include the mail in $ and live fund raisers that had happened by then. So they shouldn't count extra. Furthermore, if all they said at that time was that they had beaten last quarter's amount, then it isn't warranted to say they made $3M, instead of just $2.5M.

I tend to agree with your number at my gut. But if you want to be cautious and only base your claim on the known factors, then all we know for sure is that Q3 broke $3.7M ($2.5+$1.2). Could we have beaten that by a whole lot? Sure. Do we know for sure that we did? No.

[ItsTime]

how long have they been making a million a week off the internet? the last 2, 3, 4 weeks? THAT is the real question

[kalami]

how long have they been making a million a week off the internet? the last 2, 3, 4 weeks? THAT is the real question

probably just this week

[fez2008]

But the statement about beating last quarter's amount must include the mail in $ and live fund raisers that had happened by then. So they shouldn't count extra. Furthermore, if all they said at that time was that they had beaten last quarter's amount, then it isn't warranted to say they made $3M, instead of just $2.5M.

I tend to agree with your number at my gut. But if you want to be cautious and only base your claim on the known factors, then all we know for sure is that Q3 broke $3.7M ($2.5+$1.2). Could we have beaten that by a whole lot? Sure. Do we know for sure that we did? No.

fundraiser in NH(100k?) and mailin-checks(this week)+door-to-door in NH(200k) this week will make make the floor value $4 mil.

going by average donations: (80+ during the last week), it must be between 4.2-5.2

I think it will be 4.8(assuming $50 avg. online donation before this week) exactly double of last time..

I hope it will be 5. either way it will be about 10% of the funds raised.. which must mean his poll numbers must go to 10%...

[LibertyOfOne]

The safe bet is they were taking in on average 500K total a week. A million sounds way too high. You have to take into account that this week most of the supporters knew about a push to a million.

[LibertyEagle]

Please note that this is semi scientific and not just a swag.
Before the last week drive the message from Ron Paul said we easily beat last quarters number of $2.5 million. So lets say at that point we were at $3 million. I think most would agree that's a fair estimate. Plus $1,200,000.000 for this weeks online drive would put us at $4.2 million. Then we would have to add in the additional funds that were sent by mail and other donations from Rons fund raisers/dinners etc. Again I think a very conservative number for these would be $300,000.00. That would put us at $4.5 Million MINIMUM!

Agree disagree?

Well, he actually brought in 2.36 million last quarter, I think, rather than 2.5. Secondly, I thought when he made the statement that we had beaten last quarter's numbers was after last Wednesday's debate. If so, he knew at that point that we had raised 500K online. Plus, he already knew how much had been raised by fundraisers, so that number could have already been counted, as many of the mail-in donations also. So, I only think you can safely assume that we have 2.36K + approximately 600-700K from new online donations.

I think it's going to be better than that though.

[ItsTime]

let see people are saying about 90$ per donation for the million march. So that puts fill the quill at about 3000*90=270,000 are we saying that we had FOUR times the donations this week?

[Ron Paul Fan]

I think we raised $10 million this quarter!!!!! Actually I don't, but now that I have your attention let me tell you my theory. I think we had about 40,000 online donations with a margin of error of +/- 10,000. If the average donation was $75, there's $3,000,000 from online donations right there. Is $75 too high? Don't know. Last quarter I think he raised $1-1.5 million offline, so I know he did better this quarter. Let's say he raised $2 million offline. That would give us $5 million or higher and that's what I'm predicting. I hope I'm right for my sake and all of yours too. The consequences if I'm wrong are severe.

[LibertyEagle]

Mine has completely counted down and is flashing it is the 'END OF QUARTER'. Geez. :( There is still 2 hours to go. I hope this doesn't turn away contributors.

[0zzy]

I say 5.5million.

[V-rod]

5.1million here, including checks going through snail mail

[Hook]

I say 4.5 mill

[stevedasbach]

I think we raised $10 million this quarter!!!!! Actually I don't, but now that I have your attention let me tell you my theory. I think we had about 40,000 online donations with a margin of error of +/- 10,000. If the average donation was $75, there's $3,000,000 from online donations right there. Is $75 too high? Don't know. Last quarter I think he raised $1-1.5 million offline, so I know he did better this quarter. Let's say he raised $2 million offline. That would give us $5 million or higher and that's what I'm predicting. I hope I'm right for my sake and all of yours too. The consequences if I'm wrong are severe.

Based on confirmation numbers, 40000 is VERY close to the right number (+/- 1000, not 10,000). The average contribution is running between $80-90 this week, which I believe is lower than it had been running. My guess is $3.5-3.6 million online, plus the offline donations.

[DjLoTi]

I sincerely hope and believe you guys are under estimating.

[stevedasbach]

I sincerely hope and believe you guys are under estimating.

As I recall, last quarter just under 50% of the fundraising was offline. I'm pretty confident that online donations are in the vicinity of $3.5 million, which means the total is probably no greater than $7 million. $5.5 million is probably more realistic.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Based on confirmation numbers, 40000 is VERY close to the right number (+/- 1000, not 10,000). The average contribution is running between $80-90 this week, which I believe is lower than it had been running. My guess is $3.5-3.6 million online, plus the offline donations.

Thank you. I wasn't sure about the confirmation numbers. The last one I saw yesterday was about 47,000, but did they reset after Q2? I think $3-4 million is a decent guess for online contributions. If he matched that offline, then we'll be in the money. I know he did better than last quarter offline, so that's why I say somewhere $5 million or above.

[Perry]

I sincerely hope and believe you guys are under estimating.

Don't expect $10million because in ain't gonna happen.

[ItsTime]

he raised 5 million online. I have no idea after that That is my guess

[speciallyblend]

When do they announce? mid oct? or earlier?

[yongrel]

all i know for certain is that he raised at least the amount I donated. Past that, it's all speculation.

[Perry]

When do they announce? mid oct? or earlier?

October 15th (or earlier)

[stevedasbach]

Thank you. I wasn't sure about the confirmation numbers. The last one I saw yesterday was about 47,000, but did they reset after Q2? I think $3-4 million is a decent guess for online contributions. If he matched that offline, then we'll be in the money. I know he did better than last quarter offline, so that's why I say somewhere $5 million or above.

I found a posting with a number of 9298 dated 7/9. They did not reset at the end of the quarter.

[The Good Doctor]

+1.2 million. :D


all i know for certain is that he raised at least the amount I donated. Past that, it's all speculation.

[Joe Knows]

When do they announce? mid oct? or earlier?

They have to announce by October 15th. I imagine they will be flexible with the announcement and announce when Ron does a media interview so as to maximize the news.

[Duckman]

I think Ron pulled in between $6-$8 million, between the facts given at the beginning of this thread plus my feeling that "easily" beat the 2.5M mark means more than 3M, but more like 5M or more already, before the constitution week/million dollar events.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic...??

[DjLoTi]

Ok -

Meetup competition (lasted a week):
http://ronpauldelaware.wordpress.com/
chart is 3 days before the end, I think something like 25K behind at last place on the final day, lets just double the estimate and add some to include the other meetups = 750K

Week of SF, LA, Seattle, Utah = over 500,000 total donations (at least), something like 200,000 raised in one day (I think while they were in SF)

+ Last fundraiser = almost 1.2 mil

So lets add all these together. Lets approx. 3 mil.

It took 3 weeks to raise 3 mil. there are 13 weeks in the quarter. ( - 3 = 10 )

for those of you saying 5 mil. You really think he only raised 200,000 every week of the campaign? This doesn't even include fill the quill.

Once again, I think you guys are under estimating.

That would be less then 30,000$ a day average, and they were already averaging over 30K a day towards the latter half of Q2