Uh-Oh, Reading Tea Leaves: Could This Spell Trouble Brewing For Trey?

[specsaregood]

Just some speculation on a blog....
http://bluegrassbulletin.typepad.com/bluegrass_bulletin/2009/09/uhoh-could-this-spell-trouble-brewing-for-trey.html

excerpts:


A few months ago quite a bit of chatter arose about Bailey perhaps entering the US Senate race. Some insiders took this as an indication that McConnell's support of Grayson might have been cooling after some of the bones in Grayson's closet started to be rattled a bit.

It was about that time that Grayson turned on the afterburners in his fund raising and turned in a nice report showing about $600,000 raised in one quarter. Then McConnell agreed to host a fund raising event in DC for Trey and invited some of his Senate cronies.




Cathy Bailey will be hosting a private lunch at her house for the visiting Laura Bush in Louisville next Tuesday. Nothing particularly odd about that considering how close Cathy is with the former first family.

But in politics, the timing of things is often revealing of more than what at first appears. Although reading these tea leaves is subject to more than one interpretation, the combination of a sudden flurry of activity by Trey, coupled with a sudden push by him for money joined in the press of the day with a story about Cathy Bailey hosting a private party for Laura Bush does raise the possibility of an interesting scenario.

Might McConnell be unimpressed with Grayson's ability to raise money compared to what Rand Paul has been able to bring in? Might McConnell be exploring the possibility of changing horses?

[torchbearer]

What do the chicken bones say?

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I don't think this is happening, but if it does it is bad news. Cathy Bailey running, with Grayson staying in, takes away the "I'm the only viable not-Trey candidate!" argument.

I'm really confused how a small get-together between Bailey and Mrs. Bush means anything at all. It's really stretching. The September 23rd fundraiser proved who McConnell and the NRSC wants.

[Ian A.]

What do the chicken bones say?

The same as the entrails: McConnell would rather support the GOP pretty boy whether he is falling behind or not. If the GOP threw their weight behind Ron Paul, he would have won. But like Huckleberry said: they would rather lose than change their ways.

[specsaregood]

I don't think this is happening, but if it does it is bad news. Cathy Bailey running, with Grayson staying in, takes away the "I'm the only viable not-Trey candidate!" argument.

I'm not so sure....I think it would hurt Trey much more. I think the majority of Rand support would stay Rand's. But if the KY media did an aboutface and completely ignored him and focused on Charles and Cathy completely, then you could be correct.



I'm really confused how a small get-together between Bailey and Mrs. Bush means anything at all. It's really stretching. The September 23rd fundraiser proved who McConnell and the NRSC wants.
Unless that fundraiser was a last ditch effort to ignite his fundraising and it backfired....

But like I posted in the OP it is "just some speculation on a blog".

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I'm not so sure....I think it would hurt Trey much more. I think the majority of Rand support would stay Rand's. But if the KY media did an aboutface and completely ignored him and focused on Charles and Cathy completely, then you could be correct.

I'm not that optimistic. The general rule is the more legitimate candidates, the worse. Cathy Bailey would be a legitimate candidate, the media would rightfully treat her as one, she's an outstanding fundraiser....

Grayson vs. Paul is good.

Bailey vs. Paul is good.

Grayson vs. Bailey vs. Paul is bad.

[tangent4ronpaul]

I'm not that optimistic. The general rule is the more legitimate candidates, the worse. Cathy Bailey would be a legitimate candidate, the media would rightfully treat her as one, she's an outstanding fundraiser....

Grayson vs. Paul is good.

Bailey vs. Paul is good.

Grayson vs. Bailey vs. Paul is bad.

Why? - a three way race just lowers the bar for how many votes we have to win.

-t

[TruthisTreason]

Run Cathy Run!!!!

[lx43]

Forgive my lack of understanding politics, but how does a 3 way race helps Rand?

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Why? - a three way race just lowers the bar for how many votes we have to win.

-t

Is this the same BS we heard with Fred Thompson and Linda McMahon?

"Oh they're just all neocons, they'll split the vote!"

[TruthisTreason]

Forgive my lack of understanding politics, but how does a 3 way race helps Rand?

Cathy has my support.....



Not my vote! :p

[HarryBrowneLives]

If she did I would think it would have to be some reaching ploy via the NRSC or something. Lot of ways this could hurt Trey more than us. First, she would have a BIG mountain to climb in terms of fundraising ...great fundraiser or not she ain't Queen Midas.Trey and her would be trying to draw that water from a lot of the same wells where we don't have to. Advantage RP. Second, if you look at the real "tea leaves" ie polling numbers, Trey does great with the moderate women vote over us currently. Bailey would nullify a decent share of that advantage as well.Run Cathy Run!

[RonPaulFanInGA]

More viable candidates is NOT good.

If Bailey runs, you'll be seeing TWO candidates polling better than Paul instead of just one. This woman is rich and can supposedly self-fund her hypothetical campaign a lot.

[TruthisTreason]

More viable candidates is NOT good.

If Bailey runs, you'll be seeing TWO candidates polling better than Paul instead of just one. This woman is rich and can supposedly self-fund her hypothetical campaign a lot.

Where do you live? :confused:

The only votes she will take .. will be votes from the same socialite supporters of Tway.

Trust me, she needs to get in the race. Get behind her! LOL!

[HarryBrowneLives]

Would think she would seek the blessings of the sacred GOP cows like the NRSC. Might happen.May try to muddy the water. So be it.Trey, Cathy Bailey, Barum Bailey, let 'em all throw their money down the rat hole together. We're gonna win this race.Period.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Where do you live? :confused:

The only votes she will take .. will be votes from the same socialite supporters of Tway.

Trust me, she needs to get in the race. Get behind her! LOL!

Trust me, she doesn't.

Don't run Cathy Bailey! Go NRSC, clear that field!

[specsaregood]

Where do you live? :confused:
The only votes she will take .. will be votes from the same socialite supporters of Tway.
Trust me, she needs to get in the race. Get behind her! LOL!

TiT, while I was perusing other humorous leftist blogs I came across this comment:



Anonymous said...
Could it be that Mr. Adams, Kentucky's own Karl Rove, is behind this?

From: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=908976562615229014&postID=3166824705060981596&isPopup=true

Is that true? god i wish it was true.

[FSP-Rebel]

More viable candidates is NOT good.

If Bailey runs, you'll be seeing TWO candidates polling better than Paul instead of just one. This woman is rich and can supposedly self-fund her hypothetical campaign a lot.
I'm not convinced that this is bad for Rand.

[TruthisTreason]

From: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=908976562615229014&postID=3166824705060981596&isPopup=true

Is that true?

No, he is more of a huckaee type.. just love you to death and smile...

[lx43]

I met Huckabee. This man has a chip on his shoulder or was it because I had a RP sticker on when I met him? lol

[specsaregood]

No, he is more of a huckaee type.. just love you to death and smile...

Interesting, although having our own Karl Rove would be encouraging.
The poster was suggesting that Adams is behind the recent Mongiardo recording. You think that is remotely possible?

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I'm not convinced that this is bad for Rand.

Oh course not...she likely isn't running anyway so the argument is moot. :p

Blogger speculation.

[TruthisTreason]

The poster was suggesting that Adams is behind the recent Mongiardo recording. You think that is remotely possible?

No, he is clueless to all that.

[Matt Collins]

I agree that she would draw from the same group of supporters as Trey so it might not be a bad thing. But it will depend on how she positions herself.

[TruthisTreason]

I agree that she would draw from the same group of supporters as Trey so it might not be a bad thing. But it will depend on how she positions herself.

Maybe she would post issues on her website, that would have to be scary for the Tray camp.

[Matt Collins]

I'm not so sure....I think it would hurt Trey much more. I think the majority of Rand support would stay Rand's. But if the KY media did an aboutface and completely ignored him and focused on Charles and Cathy completely, then you could be correct.Rand has over $1 million, most of which was raised IN A SINGLE QUARTER. And he's on the heels of Grayson in terms of polling. Unlike Ron, he can't be ignored.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Rand has over $1 million, most of which was raised IN A SINGLE QUARTER. And he's on the heels of Grayson in terms of polling. Unlike Ron, he can't be ignored.

Do you think the media will give less credibility to Paul if Bailey runs, self-funds herself and reduces Rand Paul to third place status in the polls?

[Matt Collins]

Do you think the media will give less credibility to Paul if Bailey runs, self-funds herself and reduces Rand Paul to third place status in the polls?
If she runs how do you know she won't take polling points from Grey and increase Rand's polling numbers?:confused:

[RonPaulFanInGA]

If she runs how do you know she won't take polling points from Grey and increase Rand's polling numbers?:confused:

This same BS argument was made when Fred Thompson entered the race in 2007: "just another neocon splitting the vote!"

People need to realize that most people don't think like we do here. Most people will see a new candidate and give her a look. She'll take people from Grayson, Paul...and suck up a chunk of those precious remaining 30% undecideds that now would probably break Paul's way.

She decreases Paul's chances. Anytime another viable candidate runs, that happens. She'd probably present herself to the right of Grayson as well. I don't know where in the world anyone could get the idea a well-connected, wealthy woman with high name-ID running is great news. Enough with the pollyanna act.

I hope this blog speculation is absolutely nothing more. It is pretty late in the game now to be jumping in also...if she was going to run I doubt she'd let Grayson and Paul suck up months and months of media coverage while she gets nothing.

[Matt Collins]

RPFIG - I guess it depends on how she is positioned. As a centrist candidate, or as a more conservative candidate. If she's centrist then she'll probably hurt Trayson more. If she's conservative (or if that's how she's perceived) then she'll hurt Rand more.