Ron Paul is now the frontrunner.

[Zydeco]

Ron Paul is now the frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination.

We've been discussing this idea over at Donklephant.

http://donklephant.com/2007/09/29/ron-paul-fundraiser-tops-1000000/#comment-383385

I believe it is true.

[steph3n]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but RP is hardly known outside the internet, its our job to change that!

[Zydeco]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but RP is hardly known outside the internet, its our job to change that!

That's funny, I spent yesterday at a Ron Paul booth at a Northern Virginia festival, and lots of people not only knew exactly who Ron Paul was but were also extremely enthusiastic about him.

Which isn't the case for the fake frontrunners, who need to pay people to carry signs for them.

[goldstandard]

2nd that, steph3n.

[steph3n]

then keep it up.

Keep turning out people to vote at the straw pools, but more importantly the primaries, only THEN can be he the frontrunner.


That's funny, I spent yesterday at a Ron Paul booth at a Northern Virginia festival, and lots of people not only knew exactly who Ron Paul was but were also extremely enthusiastic about him.

Which isn't the case for the fake frontrunners, who need to pay people to carry signs for them.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

The media is just stupid. What is this horse race crap? They should look at who has the best views, what each candidate wants to do in office, and the impact.

[Corydoras]

That's funny, I spent yesterday at a Ron Paul booth at a Northern Virginia festival, and lots of people not only knew exactly who Ron Paul was but were also extremely enthusiastic about him.

The greater Washington, D.C. area is like greater Los Angeles. People in Washington pay attention to politicians of all levels like Los Angeles people know obscure movie actors as well as the big names... even if they're not in those industries. You are campaigning in a company town where the company is the U.S. Government and Ron Paul has been around there for over two decades.

I fear you may not realize how low the awareness is in the rest of the country.

[Zydeco]

I will certainly keep it up Steph3n...but I'm saying that, when you analyze the available data, Ron Paul now has the best chance of any candidate to win the Republican nomination.


In other words, he is the frontrunner.

[dircha]

Well, I think I understand what you're doing.

But while I think there is a lot to be said for staying on message and repeating something until people start to believe it, it's not that easy.

Take some time to study understand how the Bush administration led the public to believe that Iraq was involved in the attacks on 9/11.

I would also encourage you to appreciate the consequences of "blowback" from telling people things which they will more than likely find are not so, especially when you aren't Dick Cheney.

[Zydeco]

The greater Washington, D.C. area is like greater Los Angeles. People in Washington pay attention to politicians of all levels like Los Angeles people know obscure movie actors as well as the big names... even if they're not in those industries. You are campaigning in a company town where the company is the U.S. Government and Ron Paul has been around there for over two decades.

I fear you may not realize how low the awareness is in the rest of the country.

At the festival, an aide to a current congressman from Missouri came up to me and said, "in our district, there are Ron Paul signs all over the streets and highways. there aren't any signs for other candidates."

I'm going to Edward Bernays this into your brains: Ron Paul is the frontrunner!

[goldstandard]

He has the potential but as Corydoras said the awareness is not yet there. BUT: There is clearly a shift towards more awareness.

[steph3n]

Zydeco,

Ron Paul is NOT the front runner.

you can say it all you want, but it is not the fact now. He has a dedicated following of US, and we need to expand that to the masses. I know for a fact that most people would say Ron who?

[dircha]

I will certainly keep it up Steph3n...but I'm saying that, when you analyze the available data, Ron Paul now has the best chance of any candidate to win the Republican nomination.


In other words, he is the frontrunner.

Ron Paul has enough supporters to overwhelm small, local straw polls where attendance is low or the event is not well publicized, but as demonstrated by Ames, Paul does not have enough supporters to overwhelm (through disproportionate turnout) statewide primaries.

Failing to recognize this will guarantee failure. It's similar to how there was the mistaken belief among many online supporters that NH was somehow already in the bag for Ron Paul, when this couldn't be further from the truth. After Ames many people on these forums expressed the belief that NH was as good as Ron's, when at the time he was at something like 2% in the state and Romney was at 31%.

Please take the time to understand the numbers involved.

That's fine if you want to stay on message and stay positive, but don't let yourself be fooled by your own language.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Ron Paul has enough supporters to overwhelm small, local straw polls where attendance is low or the event is not well publicized, but as demonstrated by Ames, Paul does not have enough supporters to overwhelm (through disproportionate turnout) statewide primaries.

Failing to recognize this will guarantee failure. It's similar to how there was the mistaken belief among many online supporters that NH was somehow already in the bag for Ron Paul, when this couldn't be further from the truth.

Please take the time to understand the numbers involved.

That's fine if you want to stay on message and stay positive, but don't let yourself be fooled by your own language.

Yes, but why WOULDN'T he take the cake in NH? Libertarian state...libertarian guy....

[Zydeco]

Zydeco,

Ron Paul is NOT the front runner.

you can say it all you want, but it is not the fact now. He has a dedicated following of US, and we need to expand that to the masses. I know for a fact that most people would say Ron who?

I believe sincerely that he is, Steph3n.

He has a plus score in straw polls against every other candidate. His fundraising numbers are exploding. He has far more meetup members than any other candidate. He has won almost all of the online polls. He has won almost all of the text-message post-debate polls. Crowds at his speeches are much larger than the other candidates'.

The only two metrics he trails in are money and the "scientific" polls. The money situation is improving drastically and mitigated by his tens of thousands of volunteers -- for example, Rudy and McCain had paid people collecting signatures at the festival yesterday and didn't have their own booth, but shared the generic Republican Party booth. We had our own kickass booth organized by meetup members and it cost the campaign zero money. In other words, we outperformed the fake frontrunner easily and it didn't cost the campaign a cent.

And the "scientific" polls are untrustworthy for a variety of reasons everyone on this board knows.

So when I look at all the data, I don't see how on earth you get to anyone else being the frontrunner.

[Zydeco]

Please take the time to understand the numbers involved.

That's fine if you want to stay on message and stay positive, but don't let yourself be fooled by your own language.

I've listed the relevant numbers in my above post. I understand them fully.

I'm not fooling myself, I sincerely believe this to be true: you have to slavishly follow precisely two metrics, "scientific" polls and money raised, to not have Ron Paul out in front. Every other metric puts him in first place.

[itsnobody]

Just as predicted...Ron Paul will become a front-runner by mid October...upon becoming a front-runner he will get a huge leap in the polls and more support

[steph3n]

No you are ignoring rallies bringing 20-30k people by other candidates.

[fj45lvr]

Ron wins the contest for the most dedicated supporters which are growing in numbers


but in the larger scheme of things it's "RON who??" or "that guy who believes that crazy 9/11 conspiracy stuff"

The propagandists do a good job.

[itsnobody]

No you are ignoring rallies bringing 20-30k people by other candidates.

Can you give examples? I haven't heard of any Presidential rally bringing 20,000-30,000 people yet...most of the top-tier rallies bring around 500-1000 people

Giuliani got 3 people to show up the morning of the PBS debates

[dircha]

Yes, but why WOULDN'T he take the cake in NH? Libertarian state...libertarian guy....

As if it is a given? The reality is that if the NH state primary were held today, we have every reason to believe that Ron Paul would not win.

These media polls I refer to and you see published are scientific polls. Polling is not guess-work. It is well-established statistical science. Yes, there are well-known sources of bias in polling, there are margins of error and confidence intervals, but polling techniques are well established and proven.

The onus of proof is on someone wishing to argue that a poll showing Ron Paul with 5% support in the state and Romney with 30% support, should in fact show Ron Paul in the lead.

The reality is that the task before us is VERY hard, and we WILL FAIL if we do not recognize this.

[RonPaul2012grassroots]

Zydeco,

Ron Paul is NOT the front runner.

you can say it all you want, but it is not the fact now. He has a dedicated following of US, and we need to expand that to the masses. I know for a fact that most people would say Ron who?

You're absolutely right IMO - critical mass is when Ron Paul is a household name.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

I reiterate...libertarian state....libertarian candidate

[Zydeco]

No you are ignoring rallies bringing 20-30k people by other candidates.

Which rallies are those? Got a link?

[Zydeco]

You're absolutely right IMO - critical mass is when Ron Paul is a household name.

No, you don't need to be a household name to have the best chance of winning the Republican nomination. Most Americans don't follow politics, of the ones who do only a small % will vote in the Republican primary.

[Corydoras]

Can you give examples? I haven't heard of any Presidential rally bringing 20,000-30,000 people yet...most of the top-tier rallies bring around 500-1000 people

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21021119/

WNBC-TV
Updated: 8:42 p.m. ET Sept 27, 2007
NEW YORK - In the midst of Hillary Clinton’s political backyard, Sen. Barack Obama held an outdoor political rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park Thursday, urging the thousands in attendance to “not give up hope.” Campaign officials estimated that 24,000 people attended the rally at Washington Square Park in Manhattan.

[steph3n]

Thompson is having crowds of 5k+ is this just people wanting to see the actor or the candidate? I don't know. Obama is having 20k+

But seriously don't get drunken with arrogance that RP is the front runner, all the work now fuels the general election as well.

[Zydeco]

The reality is that if the NH state primary were held today, we have every reason to believe that Ron Paul would not win.

But it's not being held today, it's being held in January, so we must take trajectories and trends into account. A cheetah can outrun a Boeing for a few hundred yards from a still start, but then...

We're the Boeing.

[dircha]

Please take the time to understand the numbers involved.

That's fine if you want to stay on message and stay positive, but don't let yourself be fooled by your own language.

I've listed the relevant numbers in my above post. I understand them fully.

I'm not fooling myself, I sincerely believe this to be true: you have to slavishly follow precisely two metrics, "scientific" polls and money raised, to not have Ron Paul out in front. Every other metric puts him in first place.

Zydeco, personal anecdotes, self-selecting group membership, and self-selecting polls are not scientific metrics. Science and rational thought are the friends of liberty.

Published mainstream media polls are generally scientific, most importantly because they are not self-selecting.

While state primaries are indeed self-selecting themselves, we can only reliably predict their outcomes through non-self selecting, scientific polls.

By citing these dubious metrics, you indicate your failure to appreciate the science and the facts before us.

As Newt might say, welcome to the world that works. Again, science and rational thought are the friends of liberty.

But I have no interest in discouraging you from actively campaigning for Ron Paul since he is my candidate too, so I will not say any more.

[Zydeco]

Thompson is having crowds of 5k+ is this just people wanting to see the actor or the candidate? I don't know. Obama is having 20k+

But seriously don't get drunken with arrogance that RP is the front runner, all the work now fuels the general election as well.

We're not running against Obama. Again, Steph3n, got a link to a 5K Fred Thompson crowd? I'd love to see it.

[Zydeco]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21021119/

WNBC-TV
Updated: 8:42 p.m. ET Sept 27, 2007
NEW YORK - In the midst of Hillary Clinton’s political backyard, Sen. Barack Obama held an outdoor political rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park Thursday, urging the thousands in attendance to “not give up hope.” Campaign officials estimated that 24,000 people attended the rally at Washington Square Park in Manhattan.

Ron Paul's frontrunner status does not depend on Obama's crowds, Corydoras. This is for the Republican nomination.

So I guess my point stands that one metric Ron Paul leads all other candidates (R) on is size of crowds that show up to hear his speeches. Sure seems like a reasonable way to judge frontrunner status to me.

[steph3n]

http://www.memphisdailynews.com/Editorial/StoryLead.aspx?id=99000

http://www.dicksonherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070915/NEWS0206/70915012

http://www.newschannel5.com/Global/story.asp?S=7080539&nav=menu374_1

[Zydeco]

Zydeco, personal anecdotes, self-selecting group membership, and self-selecting polls are not scientific metrics. Science and rational thought are the friends of liberty.

Published mainstream media polls are generally scientific, most importantly because they are not self-selecting.

While state primaries are indeed self-selecting themselves, we can only reliably predict their outcomes through non-self selecting, scientific polls.



Voting in a primary is a "self-selecting poll."

If you think mainstream media polls are unbiased, you need to Google the subject a little more deeply. And be careful using the phrase "scientific polls" in a non-ironic fashion.

[RonPaul2012grassroots]

Most Americans don't follow politics, of the ones who do only a small % will vote in the Republican primary.

There are those who don't follow politics yet still manage to make it to the polls on primary day - these are the ones who vote for the name they are most familiar (and therefore most comfortable) with, e.g. Fred Thompson (senator and famous actor with lots of screen time), Rudy (the perceived hero of 9/11), McCain (perceived war hero and senator), etc.

I think it is a really bad idea not to influence or persuade the "not involved in politics" crowd. The way to reach these types is to bombard them with the name (I prefer the term image) Ron Paul to such an extent as to change perceptions and develop a sense of familiarity with Ron Paul. It is marketing, pure and simple.

Most people will vote for Fred or Rudy not because they know about their politics, but because they are comfortable with either of them. IMO to blow off those who "don't follow politics" is a fatal mistake.

[Zydeco]

http://www.memphisdailynews.com/Editorial/StoryLead.aspx?id=99000

http://www.dicksonherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070915/NEWS0206/70915012

http://www.newschannel5.com/Global/story.asp?S=7080539&nav=menu374_1


Steph3n,

All 3 of those links are for the same rally, which was in Thompson's hometown. They all claim a turnout of "thousands."

I'm still curious where you're getting "5K+" rallies for Thompson from.

[RonPaul2012grassroots]

Thompson is having crowds of 5k+ is this just people wanting to see the actor or the candidate? I don't know. Obama is having 20k+

But seriously don't get drunken with arrogance that RP is the front runner, all the work now fuels the general election as well.

Overconfidence loses football games.

[steph3n]

no I am not, you are not thinking rationally but I will shut up and not discourage you so long as you are still spreading the RP word.


Steph3n,

All 3 of those links are for the same rally, which was in Thompson's hometown.

I guess you're conceding the point?

[itsnobody]

http://www.memphisdailynews.com/Editorial/StoryLead.aspx?id=99000

http://www.dicksonherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070915/NEWS0206/70915012

http://www.newschannel5.com/Global/story.asp?S=7080539&nav=menu374_1

Thanks, 10-12,000 people showing up at Fred Thompson (former actor)'s hometown...that's to be expected for Fred Thompson

The majority of all rallies never bring in 20-30,000 as you stated...Ron Paul gets 1000-2000+ people at his rallies...so he's top tier , a front runner, just admit it

[steph3n]

saying it doesn't make it so, on the democratic side they are having such draws.

RP I agree is top tier now, but this topic says he is THE FRONT runner, which is not true except in some delusions of grandeur at this time.


Thanks, 10-12,000 people showing up at Fred Thompson (former actor)'s hometown...that's to be expected for Fred Thompson

The majority of all rallies never bring in 20-30,000 as you stated...Ron Paul gets 1000-2000+ people at his rallies...so he's top tier , a front runner, just admit it

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Steph3n,

All 3 of those links are for the same rally, which was in Thompson's hometown. They all claim a turnout of "thousands."

I'm still curious where you're getting "5K+" rallies for Thompson from.

Fred Thompson is a bad speaker..... more the merrier

[Zydeco]

How am I "not thinking rationally"?

1) I cited RP as drawing the largest crowds as one metric supporting the idea that he is the frontrunner.

2) You disputed that, claiming "other candidates" were holding 20-30K rallies.

3) I replied by asking for links to those rallies.

4) You responded with an Obama rally, which is not relevant to RP's frontrunner status, and claimed that Fred Thompson "is having crowds of 5K+."

5) I asked for links to those rallies.

6) You provided three links which all point to the same rally, held in Thompson's hometown.

So I guess my point stands that Ron Paul is drawing larger crowds than any other (R) candidate and that this is a useful metric (among several useful metrics) for determining frontrunner status.

[steph3n]

since you have trouble seeing it a paste:

His run for the White House drew Tennesseans from all over. The rally drew a crowd of 10,000 people all excited about supporting Fred Thompson.


How am I "not thinking rationally"?

1) I cited RP as drawing the largest crowds as one metric supporting the idea that he is the frontrunner.

2) You disputed that, claiming "other candidates" were holding 20-30K rallies.

3) I replied by asking for links to those rallies.

4) You responded with an Obama rally, which is not relevant, and claimed that Fred Thompson "is having crowds of 5K+."

5) I asked for links to those rallies.

6) You provided three links which all point to the same rally, held in Thompson's hometown.

So I guess my point stands that Ron Paul is drawing larger crowds than any other (R) candidate and that this is a useful metric (among several useful metrics) for determining frontrunner status.

[quickmike]

Zydeco,

Ron Paul is NOT the front runner.

you can say it all you want, but it is not the fact now. He has a dedicated following of US, and we need to expand that to the masses. I know for a fact that most people would say Ron who?

This is true. When I go door to door handing out flyers, on average I get about 3-4 out of 30 people that have even heard of him. This is pretty consistent too.

[Zydeco]

I stand corrected on the 10,000 number. I changed my post.

However, that was one rally in his hometown. I don't know of any other rallies where he's drawing 5K+ as you claim. If you do, please share.

[itsnobody]

saying it doesn't make it so, on the democratic side they are having such draws.

RP I agree is top tier now, but this topic says he is THE FRONT runner, which is not true except in some delusions of grandeur at this time.

Well he's not the front runner as in the top, the #1, but he's definitely a front-runner, and his 3rd quarter numbers will prove it, he'll likely beat out one of the top 4 (McCain, Romney, Thompson, Giuliani), and if he doesn't he'll be right behind

Go look at youtube videos of Fred Thompson's other rallies, it looks like around 100 people show up at the lesser known events

Ron Paul is having a rally soon in Nashville, probably 1000+ will show up

Plus you have to factor in the fact that Ron Paul who gets almost no media coverage draws 1,000s at his rallies anyway

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Ron Paul is the front runner in passion, and in grass roots activism

[FreedomLover]

Ron Paul isn't "the" frontrunner, nor is he "a" frontrunner in terms of absolute numbers, but in terms of passion of his supporters I'd say he is even more of a front-runner than obama is.

In terms of money and numbers in the polls of likely republican voters, i'd say he will get "front-runner" status very, very soon. Even if it's lower than the big-dogs, who get all the free press and corporate donations.

[Corydoras]

Ron Paul's frontrunner status does not depend on Obama's crowds, Corydoras. This is for the Republican nomination.

I was responding to a question about presidential rallies, not Republican rallies, per the quote in my post.

[Zydeco]

I was responding to a question about presidential rallies, not Republican rallies, per the quote in my post.

Gotcha. Our contexts got a little mixed up in mid-thread, since I was referring to rally size in terms of whether RP is the frontrunner or not. But we're all clear now on that I think.

[itsnobody]

Ron Paul isn't "the" frontrunner, nor is he "a" frontrunner in terms of absolute numbers, but in terms of passion of his supporters I'd say he is even more of a front-runner than obama is.

In terms of money and numbers in the polls of likely republican voters, i'd say he will get "front-runner" status very, very soon. Even if it's lower than the big-dogs, who get all the free press and corporate donations.

No, in terms of absolute numbers he is a front runner

[steph3n]

Deleted. Go on believing whatever you will.

[walt]

I just flew to Denver from Chicago. I've only been in Denver 3 hours but I've already seen signs!

Keep working people.

[Craig_R]

I'm with you zydeco, front runner for the primary for sure.
all factors considered.

so called "scientific" polls dont take into account the number of NEW voters and party switchers. most only call republicans that have voted in previous primaries. Turnout for this primary will be much larger than normal because of RP appealing to those who would otherwise not bother voting in a primary, myself included.

If we stay on this trajectory and nobody drops from the race, so the neocon vote is split. I'm pretty darn sure we can pull this off.

not that we can sit back and rest, we still need to spread the news.

[paulitics]

Yes, but why WOULDN'T he take the cake in NH? Libertarian state...libertarian guy....

Because of overcondidance. The truth is Ron Paul CAN win NH, not that he will. We have to WORK to make that happen. Right now, I'm not seeing enough people take this seriously and working to make it happen. By work, I mean a national effort, with mailouts, advertisements, articles, etc, a complete saturation. You don't think Romney and others aren't hammering this state hard, evry day right now? He is putting way more time and effort. And in my opinion, it will make or break the campain.

[steph3n]

Really my last post here, but this topic scares me and makes me think there is no chance for RP to win because there are so many believing he has it won already.

I have donated, I am getting the word out, I just joined up the RP boat this week, but some here are really far out and their belief that RP already has it is quite frightening. They need to clean out the cogs and get back to work.


Because of overcondidance. The truth is Ron Paul CAN win NH, not that he will. We have to WORK to make that happen. Right now, I'm not seeing enough people take this seriously and working to make it happen. By work, I mean a national effort, with mailouts, advertisements, articles, etc, a complete saturation. You don't think Romney and others aren't hammering this state hard, evry day right now? He is putting way more time and effort. And in my opinion, it will make or break the campain.

[Zydeco]

this topic scares me and makes me think there is no chance for RP to win because there are so many believing he has it won already.

I do not for a minute believe that Ron Paul has it won already, and I will be working obsessively over the coming months to push the effort forward.

I only claim that he is the frontrunner, that he now possesses a better chance than any other candidate to win the Republican nomination. I believe that a dispassionate look at the available metrics justifies that claim.

This is not a call for overconfidence, only confidence in what we have already achieved; not a call for apathy, but a call for renewed vigor based on previous success!

[itsnobody]

Really my last post here, but this topic scares me and makes me think there is no chance for RP to win because there are so many believing he has it won already.

I have donated, I am getting the word out, I just joined up the RP boat this week, but some here are really far out and their belief that RP already has it is quite frightening. They need to clean out the cogs and get back to work.

Ron Paul doesn't have it won already, he's just a front runner, we still need to do a lot to get him nominated....

But his chances are definitely increasing...

[paulitics]

Ron Paul doesn't have it won already, he's just a front runner, we still need to do a lot to get him nominated....

But his chances are definitely increasing...

We are 3% in national polls. Granted these are biased in favor of the hardlines. but he is not a frontrunner, not even a top tier. He has a 6% chance of winning the nonination according to intrade which sounds about right. Yeah, he is ahead of McCain, but McCain has been out of the top tier since June when he spent like a drunken sailor and comitted poltical suicide. We shouldn't compare ourselves to a sinking ship,. I would say Huckabee has a better chance than McCain.
Dean,an internet phenomonen, was raising 20 milion a quarter and had thousands of people to each of his rallys. He had 140,000 meetup members. This incredible grassroots support was not enough, when millions of average Joe's, not politically savy, showed up at the polls to vote for Kerry.
So, Paul CAN win, but he has quite a bit more to go, to get to top tier in a national election. He is top tier in enthusaism, and the message, but not in quantity...not in numbers.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

We are 3% in national polls. Granted these are biased in favor of the hardlines. but he is not a frontrunner, not even a top tier. He has a 6% chance of winning the nonination according to intrade which sounds about right. Yeah, he is ahead of McCain, but McCain has been out of the top tier since June when he spent like a drunken sailor and comitted poltical suicide. We shouldn't compare ourselves to a sinking ship,. I would say Huckabee has a better chance than McCain.
Dean,an internet phenomonen, was raising 20 milion a quarter and had thousands of people to each of his rallys. He had 140,000 meetup members. This incredible grassroots support was not enough, when millions of average Joe's, not politically savy, showed up at the polls to vote for Kerry.
So, Paul CAN win, but he has quite a bit more to go, to get to top tier in a national election. He is top tier in enthusaism, and the message, but not in quantity...not in numbers.

No, we're at 4%

[LibertyEagle]

At least, yet. And he's not going to be unless we stop all this nonsense and realize that STILL only a small fraction of the people out there even know who he is, much less know his stances on the issues.

We have a LOT of work to do, folks.

[itsnobody]

We are 3% in national polls. Granted these are biased in favor of the hardlines. but he is not a frontrunner, not even a top tier. He has a 6% chance of winning the nonination according to intrade which sounds about right. Yeah, he is ahead of McCain, but McCain has been out of the top tier since June when he spent like a drunken sailor and comitted poltical suicide. We shouldn't compare ourselves to a sinking ship,. I would say Huckabee has a better chance than McCain.
Dean,an internet phenomonen, was raising 20 milion a quarter and had thousands of people to each of his rallys. He had 140,000 meetup members. This incredible grassroots support was not enough, when millions of average Joe's, not politically savy, showed up at the polls to vote for Kerry.
So, Paul CAN win, but he has quite a bit more to go, to get to top tier in a national election. He is top tier in enthusaism, and the message, but not in quantity...not in numbers.

Well it depends how you define "top-tier" or front-runner, he's definitely in the top 4, also Howard Dean didn't have 140,000 meetup members until after he lost, and the internet is a much more powerful force now than it was waaaay back in times of Dean, I mean youtube and facebook didn't even exist way back then

Also National polls only poll Republicans who voted in the last election...

[paulitics]

No, we're at 4%

In ONE poll, not in most, which averages less than 4%. Whats the difference.

[SewrRatt]

You people need to realize that the mainstream polling industry's polls are NOT scientific or non-self-selecting anymore. Not only do they call only landlines, but they make sure you're a regular republican primary voter, and they only mention Ron Paul if you say no to the first few choices they give you, if they mention him AT ALL. Zogby and Gallup are no better than Fox News or CNN, and their polls are now the definition of self-selecting in the context of this election, if not outright fraud. They are useful for guaging our increasing support by watching our numbers increase, but by no means should anyone consider the actual percentile they give Ron Paul to be in any way scientific.

[itsnobody]

You people need to realize that the mainstream polling industry's polls are NOT scientific or non-self-selecting anymore. Not only do they call only landlines, but they make sure you're a regular republican primary voter, and they only mention Ron Paul if you say no to the first few choices they give you, if they mention him AT ALL. Zogby and Gallup are no better than Fox News or CNN, and their polls are now the definition of self-selecting in the context of this election, if not outright fraud. They are useful for guaging our increasing support by watching our numbers increase, but by no means should anyone consider the actual percentile they give Ron Paul to be in any way scientific.

Oh yeah I forgot to mention that, a Ron Paul supporter who got called for polling told me that they he was only given 4 choices (McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Thompson) and that when he said Ron Paul the pollers said they could only choose from the list they gave...what a bunch of BS

[stevedasbach]

You people need to realize that the mainstream polling industry's polls are NOT scientific or non-self-selecting anymore. Not only do they call only landlines, but they make sure you're a regular republican primary voter, and they only mention Ron Paul if you say no to the first few choices they give you, if they mention him AT ALL. Zogby and Gallup are no better than Fox News or CNN, and their polls are now the definition of self-selecting in the context of this election, if not outright fraud. They are useful for guaging our increasing support by watching our numbers increase, but by no means should anyone consider the actual percentile they give Ron Paul to be in any way scientific.

This is not true with respect to all the polls. Gallup, for example, uses random number dialing -- they don't simply call primary voters. Also, they rotate the names of the candidates. They publish the text of the poll, along with the results, so that you can evaluate their methods and look for evidence of bias.

OTOH, Rasmussen lists the top candidates and "other", always in the same order. If you pick "other", then they read the remaining candidates. This methodology violates the basic principles of scientific polling. Also, they don't disclose their questions or methods.

[kill the banks]

i'd suggest perhaps a private poll by independent group , listing all candidates by name & then we might show progress [ including cell phones would be nice too ] ... there is no doubt the main media will not recognize ron paul , frankly , even when we win the polls after debates ... kill the banks

[FreedomLover]

You people need to realize that the mainstream polling industry's polls are NOT scientific or non-self-selecting anymore. Not only do they call only landlines, but they make sure you're a regular republican primary voter, and they only mention Ron Paul if you say no to the first few choices they give you, if they mention him AT ALL. Zogby and Gallup are no better than Fox News or CNN, and their polls are now the definition of self-selecting in the context of this election, if not outright fraud. They are useful for guaging our increasing support by watching our numbers increase, but by no means should anyone consider the actual percentile they give Ron Paul to be in any way scientific.

So does that mean Ron Paul's real percentage is 50% ?

It's probably closer to 7% for those who will vote in the primaries. At the moment.

We can't just assume that he will be known to everyone and loved by all just because he's a good guy and he wins all the internet polls. We have way more work to do that most other candidates, and most of it has to be done offline.

Even In New hampshire, Ron paul is only known by about 55% of republican voters. And those are the people who are supposed to follow the primary closely!

[Corydoras]

I don't mean this rhetorically:
What is the difference in what we need to do, whether he is a front-runner or not?
How would it change things if he is?
I don't see that it would make a difference, or enough of a difference to hang onto the term so firmly.

[LibertyEagle]

You people need to realize that the mainstream polling industry's polls are NOT scientific or non-self-selecting anymore. Not only do they call only landlines, but they make sure you're a regular republican primary voter, and they only mention Ron Paul if you say no to the first few choices they give you, if they mention him AT ALL. Zogby and Gallup are no better than Fox News or CNN, and their polls are now the definition of self-selecting in the context of this election, if not outright fraud. They are useful for guaging our increasing support by watching our numbers increase, but by no means should anyone consider the actual percentile they give Ron Paul to be in any way scientific.

Then run your OWN POLL. It's easy. Walk out the door and ask the next 20 people that you see, if they know who Ron Paul is. The answer will not be pretty.

Geez people. Ron Paul is going to lose big time, if we don't stop deluding ourselves and get busy!!