How many were at the 9.12 Tea Party in DC?

[Bradley in DC]

I don't know, no one does.

Here is what I got from a friend I saw on the metro just a bit ago who looked at the numbers and our conversation (both of us were there but didn't see each other--I didn't see any of my friends that I know were there). He and I have both seen the three previous presidential inaugurations and many large events during this time (we both started as Congressional staffers in 1997).

Here are some rough guesses to go by.

One person analyzed the video of the march down Penn and said it would have filled the street three times and that would be about 800,000 people. (Can't verify this analysis)

Metro ridership was up 235,000 people from the previous weekend a year earlier. People who estimated crowds for the Obama inauguration, if I remember this right, put ridership up 600k over the 2005 one and put the crowd at 1.2 million (or something like that, I can't remember exactly what my friend said). But by that logic, there were about half a million people at the Tea Party.

Caveats with the inauguration comparisons: there were lots of people at Freedom Plaza (by the White House), marching down Penn, and gathering on the west lawn of the Capitol that wouldn't show up in pictures of the mall. (Both this friend and I were on the west lawn, at the same time in the afternoon, and didn't see each other). Also, people were much more spread out geographically and over time for the march than for the inauguration.

Based on his observations of the density of the crowd and for how many blocks people were assembled on the mall and widely guessing with people coming late (including yours truly and my neighbors and our dogs) after others had left, he and I would guess that there were probably between 600-800,000 people there (he thought on the low end, me on the high end of that range). That and $5 would get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. :cool:

[Primbs]

I was only at the capitol area, so I know that area had at least fifty thousand or more. I am being really conservative. I did not see all the areas around town and did not see how many people came and went.

It is about one and a half miles from the Capitol to the Washington Monument.

There were people all over union station, restaurants, up on pennsylvania ave etc.

Looking at the pictures, the crowds could have been as high as eight hundred thousand.

[ShowMeLiberty]

It was probably close to a million people. Here, take a look:

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res-150x150.jpg

Click Here for Larger Image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg)

source: http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500

[Primbs]

The people on the sides are easy to underestimate. But that is a very large area as well. Probably as big as the center section.

[Deborah K]

I'd like to see satellite photos of the inauguration and the 9/12 march side by side.

[ronpaulhawaii]

It was probably close to a million people. Here, take a look:

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res-150x150.jpg

Click Here for Larger Image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg)

source: http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500 (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500)

Thanks for this pic. I am more comfortable with estimates approaching 1 million. 1.5 - 2 remains absurd...

[FSP-Rebel]

It was probably close to a million people. Here, take a look:

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res-150x150.jpg

Click Here for Larger Image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg)

source: http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500
This is actually the 1st pic that I've seen that does the attendance estimates any justice.
Being there, I definitely felt an extraordinary amount of people around me.

[Bradley in DC]

I'd like to see satellite photos of the inauguration and the 9/12 march side by side.

It wouldn't do you as much good as you'd think. Apples and oranges on the physicality of the crowd placement. The 9.12 march started at Freedom Plaza with a litany of speakers, etc. there, then marched down Penn with many people on the west lawn of the Capitol--none of those places would show up on the photo you want. The part of the mall closer the Capitol was set up differently too.

[Bradley in DC]

I've just been told that at Grover's this morning, the Tea Party organizers put their estimate for the crowd at between 500-800,000 people. Sounds about right.

[MsDoodahs]

That's an awful lot of people.

Of course, to hear the left tell it, it was around 20K, and every one of them is nothing but a rabid racist. :rolleyes:

[Bradley in DC]

That's an awful lot of people.

Of course, to hear the left tell it, it was around 20K, and every one of them is nothing but a rabid racist. :rolleyes:

Many of us who live here have remarked how we saw them all week everywhere we went on the metro, streets, restaurants, etc--unlike conventions and things here, this crowd was very easily identifiable with, um, "expressive" T-shirts, buttons, carrying flags, etc.

[Bradley in DC]

Metro ridership was up 235,000 people from the previous weekend a year earlier. People who estimated crowds for the Obama inauguration, if I remember this right, put ridership up 600k over the 2005 one and put the crowd at 1.2 million (or something like that, I can't remember exactly what my friend said). But by that logic, there were about half a million people at the Tea Party.

More on the metro question:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/09/16/tea-party-protesters-protest-dc-metro-service/

Anecdotally, I heard complaints about the lack of metro service, but after the fatal crash on the red line and the deaths of several workers since then, there have been lots of complaints about the metro this summer. Just another caveat with the extrapolations.

I'd add that Obama supporters are probably more likely to be users of public transit than the Tea Party marchers are. ;)

[Bradley in DC]

More on the metro ridership question:

http://www.insideronline.org/blogarchive.cfm?month=9&year=2009&blogid=C466EB26-A514-FE2C-15E13498F9BEE15D

Metro’s Numbers Debunk Mainstream Media Estimates of 9/12 Attendance

Much has been made over the attendance at the march and rally in Washington, D.C., on September 12. Reports varied, with many on the Left clinging to an unofficial D.C. Fire Department estimate of 60,000 to 70,000. Some reports from overseas went as far as to say 2 million. However, one completely objective source of information is the number of people who rode Metro, D.C.’s subway system. Washington Metro measures and releases its ridership numbers and these numbers have been used in the past to judge the size of major events in Washington, D.C.

For a fair comparison, we looked at the Saturday after Labor Day in 2008, which is when September 12 fell in 2009. On September 12, 2009, 437,624 rode metro rail. By comparison, on the Saturday after Labor Day in 2008, 202,528 rode. The difference is 235,096. Even if nobody else came to the march—and we know they did by chartered bus and by carpool—the theory that only 70,000 people were there is off by roughly 335 percent. To take the comparison a step further, we also looked at the attendance for President Obama’s inauguration in January 2009. Conventional wisdom estimates that attendance for the inaugural was between 800,000 and 1.8 million, or an average of 1.3 million.

If you compare Metro riders on Inauguration Day 2009 to Martin Luther King Day 2008, the similarly situated federal holiday in January, then you find that approximately 975,000 additional people rode metro for the inauguration. So, if you compare 975,000 additional metro riders as a percentage of the 1.3 million who attended the inauguration and you do the same math for 235,000 additional metro riders for the 9/12 March, than at least 313,000 went downtown for the explicit purpose of marching against out-of-control government spending on September 12. This assumes a similar percentage of attendees took buses, cabs, drove in, walked, etc.
If you believe the number was 1.8 million at the Inauguration and you do the same math for 9/12, then the number is 433,000. So is an estimate of 313,000 to 433,000 attendees accurate? Well, it is certainly an unbiased and impartial start to understanding the debate over crowd size. The bottom line is that hundreds of thousands of Americans who were upset with government spending, a failed stimulus, a government takeover of health care, and a massive energy tax came with their parents, children, grandparents, cousins, college roommates, etc. to a multi-generational and peaceful family protest in Washington.

By Mark Kelly. Cross-posted at The Foundry.

[Bradley in DC]

I heard from someone at a metro station on Friday that one of the organizing groups had arranged for 4500 buses to bring people to DC. She didn't say which groups or anything, but there were other heads nodding in approval from her group when she told me that.

[FSP-Rebel]

I heard from someone at a metro station on Friday that one of the organizing groups had arranged for 4500 buses to bring people to DC. She didn't say which groups or anything, but there were other heads nodding in approval from her group when she told me that.
The Rally's emcee said there were over 450 buses that came for the event.

[Number19]

It was probably close to a million people. Here, take a look:

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res-150x150.jpg

Click Here for Larger Image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg)

source: http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500Fastastic panorama photo. First time I've seen it. But, comparing it to the inaugural, I agree that the turnout is in the range of 500,000 to 750,000.

But this is absolutely energizing. I've been committed to the fight for our freedom since 1979 and, to my knowledge, this demonstration of strength and commitment represents an unprecedented, crescendoing wave. The Rally for the Republic...and now this.

[olehounddog]

over 800,000 arrested in 2008 for mj. Imagine a crowd larger than that caged up every year for using a plant.

[Number19]

Zoom in all the way towards the Washington Monument. That's a hell of a lot of people

http://gigapan.org/viewGigapanFullscreen.php?id=15374Another great panorama and also the first time I've seen it. And having seen this, I'll go back to my previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 for our rally. This is comparable to Bradley in DC's analysis (great find). Still an impressive turnout.

[KAYA]

Some one sent me this link from heritage.org
http://blog.heritage.org/2009/09/15/metro-delivers-hundreds-of-thousands-to-912-rally/


For a fair comparison, we looked at the Saturday after Labor Day in 2008, which is when September 12 fell in 2009. On September 12, 2009, 437,624 rode metro rail. By comparison, on the Saturday after Labor Day in 2008, 202,528 rode. The difference is 235,096. Even if nobody else came to the March, and we know they did by chartered bus and by carpool, the theory that only 70,000 people were there is off by roughly 335% - debunking the 70,000 claim. To take it a step further for comparison, we also looked at the attendance for President Obama’s Inauguration in January 2009. Convential wisdom estimates that attendance for the inaugural was between 800,000 and 1.8 million, or an average of 1.3 million.

[agitator]

1.7 Million:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19743935/The-Real-Number-of-Protesters-Zac-Moilanen

[Bradley in DC]

The Rally's emcee said there were over 450 buses that came for the event.

Too funny, game of telephone, I guess.

[Number19]

Some one sent me this link from heritage.org
http://blog.heritage.org/2009/09/15/metro-delivers-hundreds-of-thousands-to-912-rally/From this link (thanks, KAYA) the medical coordinator for the event has a sound analysis and estimate that supports a million plus. The available photos just don't support this analysis, however, when comparing the two events. Maybe additional photos will turn up supporting the higher estimate.

Kenneth Happel, Vista, CA writes:

I was the medical coordinator for the event. I believe that there were at least a million people there and a million and a half would be my best bet.
.
I don’t know where the “official estimate” quoted as 60,000 comes from. The event permit, and Chief Lyles fire department resource allocation, was based upon 50,000 (because we couldn’t prove more beforehand)and that number of people was supposed to be contained in the central section of the west lawn between the sidewalks extending from the freedom and grant statues.
.
I counted the crowd entering Penn. Ave. to determine how many first aid team people were needed and where. I made my count at Freedom Plaza after the police radio had indicated that the front of the march had reached Capital Circle. I used the following method. We counted the number of people stretching across Penn. Ave. from curb to curb for a distance down the street of ten feet. That number was divided in half (assuming that there were variations in how tightly people were packed)and multiplied by the number of ten foot intervals from Freedom Park to Capitol Circle. At 8:00 the count was 200,000. I inserted a medical team at that point and when it reached Capitol Circle the whole avenue had filled again and I inserted my team. So at about 9:30 the total attendance from the march was, conservatively, about 400,000. The avenue continued to pumo in people fopr another two hours. So I estimate about 600,000 came through that route.
.
There was also a very large stream that filled the whole street from the train station to Capitol circle and people that came on the underground said that it was simply packed with people coming out at the protest site (both these flows were not part of the march).
.
The National Park Service published its estimating method in USA Today, when they provided an estimate for President Obama’s inaguration. That method estimates by filled area.
The west lawn (all three sections were filled solid with little space between people)the shoulders around the building and the area directly around the reflecting pool is 240,000 by the NPS estimating method. The mall from the reflecting pool to the cross street before the Washington Monument is 940,000 according to the NPS. The first section of the mall nearest the Washingon Monument was reserved for the NAACP’s Family event. Our folks, at the height of the event, stretched from the cross street before the NAACP event all the way to the relfecting pool and were packed. I would guess that its 4/5 of the 940,000 or 750,000 people together that’s a million. Then there was the area from first street to third street (third street goes to the train station). First street was so crowded the police had to clear it. The crowd also filled most of the area around and between the museums on each side, with the greatest density in the half of the mall nearest the reflecting pool. You could easily add another half million with these two areas.
.
That’s how I came to an estimate of one to one and a half million.
Under no possible stretch of the imagination or should I say contraction of the imagination were there only 60,000. To see crowd outline on the National Park Service estimator go to my facebook page “kenneth happel” and look at the photos.

[Deborah K]

It was probably close to a million people. Here, take a look:

http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res-150x150.jpg

Click Here for Larger Image (http://iowntheworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/capitol-view-lo-res.jpg)

source: http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=6500

I read that this picture is from a protest years ago. It's not one of the 9-12 march.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/14/912-tea-party-photo-false_n_286082.html


Here's some good pics: http://www.semiautorifles.com/forums/f10/pictures-912-march-d-c-1442.html

[Number19]

I read that this picture is from a protest years ago. It's not one of the 9-12 march.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/14/912-tea-party-photo-false_n_286082.html


Here's some good pics: http://www.semiautorifles.com/forums/f10/pictures-912-march-d-c-1442.htmlI believe your information is incorrect. Here is a link to a live video, shot from the capitol building by Texas Congressman John Culberson. They look identical to me. The photo is much higher resolution and quality, but the cloud cover seems the same as well as the crowd.

There was a shot mistakenly posted, and quickly taken down, at one of the blogs. I didn't see this image, so can't comment further.

On another note, the congressman says he spoke with the capitol police and their official estimate was 275,000.

(edit) Comparing the first photo in your link, in the image being questioned you can just see the tops of the speakers on either side, with the three dots in the back. The middle backstop, blue and white, is just below the edge of the image. But the two are the same.

http://qik.com/video/2869170

[Deborah K]

I believe your information is incorrect. Here is a link to a live video, shot from the capitol building by Texas Congressman John Culberson. They look identical to me. The photo is much higher resolution and quality, but the cloud cover seems the same as well as the crowd.

There was a shot mistakenly posted, and quickly taken down, at one of the blogs. I didn't see this image, so can't comment further.

On another note, the congressman says he spoke with the capitol police and their official estimate was 275,000.

(edit) Comparing the first photo in your link, in the image being questioned you can just see the tops of the speakers on either side, with the three dots in the back. The middle backstop, blue and white, is just below the edge of the image. But the two are the same.

http://qik.com/video/2869170

Huh? They're not the same picture at all. We must not be looking at the same thing.

The video you posted is not even from the same angle as the photo in question. :confused:

Edit: I confused you. Click on the huffington article and look at THAT picture. The left is trying to say that we are using that picture as evidence of the size.

[Number19]

Huh? They're not the same picture at all. We must not be looking at the same thing.

The video you posted is not even from the same angle as the photo in question. :confused:

Edit: I confused you. Click on the huffington article and look at THAT picture. The left is trying to say that we are using that picture as evidence of the size.I figured this out, eventually. I just posted a comment there, setting the record straight on the numbers. I doubt "they" agree.

[Number19]

I've just figured out what I consider a serious error in estimating crowds at capitol events and would like comments.

I am referencing to the USA Today Inauguration 2009 image. Notice that the area labeled as "public access" is based on 2.5 sq ft per person, giving a total of 946,000 for that area.

Well, 2.5 sq ft is only a square 17". People packed that densely would be unable to move and this would be an intolerable situation for any length of time. Anyone who fell would be unable to get up and would be trampled. Children would be especially at risk, and older people. For very short distances and short periods of time ( shuffling into a stadium ) this would be possible. But is this possible for a mile, or standing for several hours of speeches? People would get claustrophobic. Statistically, in a group that size, you'll have several medical emergencies.

That 946,000 figure is probably closer to 400,000 or 500,000. People occupying a 5 or 6 sq ft square is still very dense, but much more realistic.

[Bradley in DC]

I've just figured out what I consider a serious error in estimating crowds at capitol events and would like comments.

I am referencing to the USA Today Inauguration 2009 image. Notice that the area labeled as "public access" is based on 2.5 sq ft per person, giving a total of 946,000 for that area.

Well, 2.5 sq ft is only a square 17". People packed that densely would be unable to move and this would be an intolerable situation for any length of time. Anyone who fell would be unable to get up and would be trampled. Children would be especially at risk, and older people. For very short distances and short periods of time ( shuffling into a stadium ) this would be possible. But is this possible for a mile, or standing for several hours of speeches? People would get claustrophobic. Statistically, in a group that size, you'll have several medical emergencies.

That 946,000 figure is probably closer to 400,000 or 500,000. People occupying a 5 or 6 sq ft square is still very dense, but much more realistic.

They were packed in like sardines at the inauguration--there was no room to fall. It was not packed so densely at the march.

[Primbs]

The Huffington Post photo was not correct. However, the video and the other photos are correct. The video and the photos show protesters all the way to the smithsonian buildings. That was where I walked and CNN had their trucks parked over there to interview people.

There were many people who marched who then went to lunch. All the restaurants had hour long lines to get in and people were all over DC including Union station.

Many marched but then took a break and came back.

However, the real power of the march is that we now have political activists all over America working for a cause. There are now campaign war rooms targeting tax raising and big government liberals.

The liberals now have a target on their back by a groups of very organized and energized activists who are looking to defeat them in 2010.