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disorderlyvision
09-11-2009, 06:41 PM
http://www.prlog.org/10338386-poll-shows-close-race-in-oks-4th-district.html


Private Poll shows the Oklahoma 4th District Congressional Race to be a close one

Sep 10, 2009 – - Oklahoma- Internal polling from the RJ Harris 2010 campaign shows Rep. Tom Cole, the incumbent since 2003 at 54%, RJ Harris at 31%, and 15% undecided.

The number of undecided-votes clearly shows Harris within striking distance of an incumbent that should have had all undecided-votes nailed down years ago. This poll was conducted by Persistence Consulting LLC and included likely Republican primary voters from the 4th district.

This news comes after Harris’s campaign has announced its’ current election -contributions at $21,699.69. The highest amount raised by democratic opposition to Rep. Tom Cole in the past three election cycles was $29,344 by Hal Spake in 2006. Harris has surpassed the record of the other two democrat opponents from 2004 and 2008. Rep. Tom Cole has not faced a Republican Primary challenge since 2002. If these numbers indicate anything, it’s that Rep. Tom Cole’s primary race is shaping up to be tougher than his last three general election races against the Democrats.

RJ Harris is an Iraq War Veteran, and a pronounced Constitutional Conservative Republican, living in Norman Oklahoma. His website is www.rjharris2010.com

Epic
09-11-2009, 07:15 PM
this is good news.

malkusm
09-11-2009, 07:42 PM
I hope R.J. does well! Are there any local CFL groups or other organizations who are doing some grassroots work on the ground out there in OK?

Imperial
09-11-2009, 11:03 PM
Hmm, RJ may get a donation out of me after all.

Flash
09-12-2009, 06:24 PM
He is a serious candidate afterall. ;)

MRoCkEd
09-12-2009, 06:37 PM
The fact that it was done by the RJ Harris campaign makes me hesitate, but if the poll's accurate... holy shit!

Imperial
09-13-2009, 12:53 PM
RJ should really call up Rasmussen to do a poll with these kind of numbers in the district. Since internal polling is often biased, outsiders will just disregard it. If Rasmussen does the poll though...

TCE
09-13-2009, 01:12 PM
However, even if RJ gets all of the undecideds, he still trails 54/46. While this is a nice turn of events, it doesn't equal a win.

evilfunnystuff
09-13-2009, 01:30 PM
However, even if RJ gets all of the undecideds, he still trails 54/46. While this is a nice turn of events, it doesn't equal a win.
its still very earliy in the race

go rj ;)

Slutter McGee
09-14-2009, 11:00 AM
However, even if RJ gets all of the undecideds, he still trails 54/46. While this is a nice turn of events, it doesn't equal a win.

Of course it doesn't. But I think we can all agree that the majority of liberty candidates have little to no chance of winning. I think that when we find the ones that do even if it is still a long shot, we have to jump at the opportunity.

Slutter McGee

TCE
09-14-2009, 05:35 PM
Anyone know how much RJ has? Because Tom Cole has $453,000.

http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00025726&cycle=2010

RJHarris2010
09-17-2009, 09:16 AM
I'm excited to see the discussions going on over this press release. I wanted to add some comments after reading through the thread.

"The fact that it was done by the RJ Harris campaign makes me hesitate, but if the poll's accurate... holy shit! "


We actually had it done by a third party. It's more than likely even higher. The company that did the poll most likely wants to be able to show us improvement from their consultation efforts.

We are seeking out some other polling organizations as well.


However, even if RJ gets all of the undecideds, he still trails 54/46. While this is a nice turn of events, it doesn't equal a win.


Something interesting is that the poll only included likely republican primary voters (i.e. party establishment folks for the most part). This didn't take into account the thousands of constituents around the district who never voted in a primary and are attending tea parties and 912 group meetings. We believe we'll attract another 10% from new primary voters alone.

This means we are at 31% old + 10% new + 15% undecided = 56%

Of course we have to convert the 15% undecided and this doesn't even take into account votes we can still take away from Cole. Hence, 50% should be looking even more plausible.


Anyone know how much RJ has? Because Tom Cole has $453,000.


We’ve raised almost $23,000. But let’s put things into perspective for a minute.

If we analyze all of Tom Cole’s past incumbency elections (2004, 2006 and 2008) we can see that RJ has almost reached the same fundraising levels as the top contender to Tom Cole in the General Election. In other words, in 2006 the Democrat raised just under $30,000; the most raised by his opponent in all three elections. Tom Cole spends almost all of his $1,000,000 that he normally raises. Why is this important?

- RJ will raise more than every one of Cole’s opponents for the past three elections if things continue at the pace they are going.

- Cole is facing a tougher Primary Race than his past three General Election races, and he hasn’t faced a primary since 2002.

- Cole has only faced progressives and big government republicans in every election. RJ is far more conservative than Cole. Cole voted for the TARP bailouts, and he has voted for some other incredibly surprising things that we will announce in the coming weeks . (HINT: look up his voting record on economic issues in 2007.)

- Cole wastes his money on various needless services. Let me clarify: Cole has raised $178,476 this cycle and has all ready spent over $80,000. His web presence hasn’t improved, and his advertising efforts have not increased. One must ask; what is he spending all that money on? Some possibilities are staff, consultation, paid “volunteers”, polling, expensive HQ’s luxuries, dinners for his big donors, and old time campaign methods that won't cut it in 2009.

- Our campaign is not wasting money on any of those things above. Our monthly-operating costs are less than $1,500. Every other dime we spend is on name recognition, travel and advertising.

- What does all this mean? If Tom Cole wants any funds left for a general election race—assuming he beats RJ – he’ll have to be more frugal. A reasonable assumption is that he’ll divide his likely $1,000,000 in half. So we are up against $500,000, right? No. Cole will most likely blow $300,000 on operating costs (staff, HQ’s costs, polling, consultation, paid “volunteers”, etc.). We are now down to $200,000. At least 25% of this will be wasted on ineffective “old campaigning” advertising techniques. We are down to $150,000. Suddenly the $23,000 RJ has in his war chest seems a lot higher. If we were able to accomplish what we have with $23,000, imagine what we can do with $100,000 more.

One Last tidbit:

The last Republican Primary for OK’s 4th district turned out 36,526 voters. Tom Cole received 21,789 votes to win the nomination. Adding in some population changes among other things, we can presume that this primary will turn out at least 50,000 voters. RJ needs to convince 30,000 voters to show up and vote for him in the primary.

Lately I’ve heard some speak that we don’t have a chance, or the Liberty Candidates don’t have a chance, I hope the above makes it overwhelmingly clear that our election is very winnable. This openness is the same openness you can expect from RJ when he is in office. If you haven't donated yet, I hope this will convince you that your Federal Reserve notes will be put to good use.

Tom Cole and the establishment have a storm coming their way!

Thank you for the support.

Jonathan Gibbons
Campaign Manager

Flash
09-17-2009, 05:59 PM
RJ Harris looks like a very serious candidate. We should consider organizing a money bomb for him shortly.

TCE
09-17-2009, 07:29 PM
RJ Harris looks like a very serious candidate. We should consider organizing a money bomb for him shortly.

Not so fast. September has been money bomb month, so everyone's funds are pretty tapped out right now (after Rand's bomb in a few days). October should be recovery month, no bombs. So, November would be a good month to do it in. RK hasn't really had a bomb since June, so he deserves one.

Jonathan: Thank you for the responses! How are you guys doing with getting new voters registered? Is there an Oklahoma law about changing party registration like there is in other states? Thanks again for your time.

justinc.1089
09-19-2009, 03:38 PM
I think late October would be fine, like the last week. I really think Harris actually looks like our most likely victory out of all our candidates, so we really need to organize a moneybomb for him sometime after Paul's 23rd one is over. We could plan it for the 23rd or around that time, thats around a month later I think that would be enough time to push for another moneybomb don't you?

skyorbit
09-23-2009, 06:26 PM
Well, Rand Paul is our most likely victory -- plus it's a Senate Seat.

But Harris really looks like he could win this primary. I'm becoming more and more impressed with him.

TRacy

scrosnoe
09-24-2009, 07:54 AM
Come on guys - we surround them . . . and we press on . . . and we pray . . .and we do all we know to do . . .

Bradley in DC
09-24-2009, 09:17 AM
Undecideds: (I know nothing about this race in particular) self described "undecideds" GENERALLY go two-to-one against an incumbent, especially numbers closer to the actual election date. (If they turn out to vote at all)

If an incumbent hasn't closed the deal with a segment of the population, again in particular closer to actual election date when people are more likely to be paying attention, it is usually because there is some unease/unhappiness with the incumbent.

Vulnerable or not: if a candidate is polling less than/has an approval rating less than 55%, then the candidate is considered vulnerable. In Congressional races, another factor in general elections (as opposed to primary ones) is whether the presidential vote differed from the congressional one (eg, a Democrat got elected to Congress in a district that voted for a Republican presidential candidate).