‘Peak Oil’ is a Waste of Energy

[wildfirepower]

In the end, perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak-oil advocates is that the earth was endowed with only 2 trillion barrels of “recoverable” oil. Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent — another 2.5 trillion barrels — in an economically viable way. And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which in time we may be able to efficiently tap.

Just as, in the 1970s, it was the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution, today it is the invasion of Iraq and instability in Venezuela and Nigeria. But the solution, as ever, is for the industry to shift investment into new regions, and that’s what it is doing. Yet peak-oil advocates take advantage of the inevitable delay in bringing this new production on line to claim that global production is on an irreversible decline.

Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to the historical level of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincing policymakers in Washington and elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price. (That’s the logic that led the Carter administration to create the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, a $3 billion boondoggle that never produced a gallon of useable fuel.

Complete article-:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?_r=1

[Zippyjuan]

Recoverable oil changes with the price of oil and technology. Yes- there is a lot of oil still in the planet but demand has been steadily increasing faster than new discoveries have. The easy to find and get to oil has pretty much been found (as best we know- obviously we do not have any way to know what we have not yet found). Each new barrel found takes more effort and expense to get to.

Countries which used to be net oil exporters (which actually used to include the US) are one by one becoming net importers. Indonesia. Britain. Expected to join in perhaps the next decade include Mexico and even Venezuela. Iran wants to use nuclear energy to replace domestic consumption so that they can continue to sell oil abroad (their chief source of government revenue). Levels of output in country after country start to decline- they cannot match the growth rate in demand into the future.

Oil shale in the Rocky Mountains areas have tons of oil- estimates run over a trillion barrels. But the problem is the cost. To extract that oil, you need to use two barrels worth of energy to get one barrel of oil out. Along with lots of water - which is in short supply in that region. To keep up their production levels, Saudi Arabia announced they were spending billions to bring online a field they found in the 1960's. That requires pumping in two gallons of sea water for each barrel of oil discovered. Brazil has had to drill some two miles to the ocean floor and then a further five miles through hard rock to get at their recently reported finds. Meanwhile production at existing fields continue to decline.

To say that we will use up every drop of oil is not true. To say that we will have problems continuing to supply even current demand is probably also true. Add in growing economies in Brazil, India, and China and you have a bad squeeze. There will still be oil, but it will become extremely expensive. The current global slowdown has eased pressure on supplies, but if the world economies start humming again, the squeeze will only get worse. Get ready to pay a lot more for energy in the future.


Let us consider just one of the fields the editorial mentions. The Bakken oil shale field. The USGS estimated the recoverable oil from the field as 3.0 to 4.0 billion barrels. http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 This compared to the US consumption of 20 million barrels a day or 7 billion a year means that this entire field would last us for about six months if we only relied on it for our oil. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=US

[tajitj]

Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent — another 2.5 trillion barrels — in an economically viable way.

Hugest overstatment/oversimplification EVER. It is about supply being less than demand.

[Rael]

But can we economically get that oil? Even if oil remains, if it takes a barrel or more of energy to retrieve a barrel of oil, the game is over.

[legion]

I knew a commodities trader that killed himself due to stock market speculation he had done based on the conclusions of peak oil and books about the end of suburbia, etc.

You can believe whatever you want, but please don't speculate on it with money that is dear to you, or borrow money to do your speculations. You may, too, find yourself in $400,000 in debt and no way out.

[Ian A.]

Hmm, quoting the NYT are we? :rolleyes:

Dick Cheney Disagrees:


For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from?http://www.energybulletin.net/node/559

Most here probably haven't even heard of Peak Oil, but if you want a nice intro, check out a film I made in 2006. :cool:

YouTube - How the End Began - Part 1 of 12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk05ZhgU3CM)

[TinCanToNA]

Peak Oil might not have hit, but Peak Cheap Oil probably has. Oil was dirt, dirt cheap. Now, not so much.

[stag15]

But can we economically get that oil? Even if oil remains, if it takes a barrel or more of energy to retrieve a barrel of oil, the game is over.

Bingo.

Oil is $70 during the greatest economic crisis since the depression. If it is in such great supply, and easily extractable, it would still be at its firesale price of $35. JPM and GS are much smarter than that. If oil dips under $50 on the next deflationary wave, use it as a buying opportunity.

[stag15]

Go to Chrismartenson.com and watch Ch. 17 on peak oil. It explains EROEI and Hubbert's theory. There is a lot of oil out there, but the energy required to drill, ship, refine, reship is the key. EROEI is very important. The EROEI of a medieval community was about 1.2:1, there was just enough excess energy for the king to enjoy a pleasant lifestyle, while everyone else worked day after day just to survive. Think of what happens to the average person's lifestyle when it takes 1 unit of energy to retrieve 2? There isn't a lot of excess energy to go around.

[idiom]

The Brazilians recently found a whole mess of the stuff. But its under something like 3000 metres of water followed by 2000 metres of rock. Not really as easy and poking a hole in your back yard.

[BenIsForRon]

Hmm, quoting the NYT are we? :rolleyes:

Dick Cheney Disagrees:

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/559

Most here probably haven't even heard of Peak Oil, but if you want a nice intro, check out a film I made in 2006. :cool:

YouTube - How the End Began - Part 1 of 12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk05ZhgU3CM)

Just watched the intro, but that was some good stuff! I wonder what percentage of American's actually understand and agree with the Brzenski/Cheney's agenda? One... two percent?

[Ian A.]

I wonder what percentage of American's actually understand and agree with the Brzenski/Cheney's agenda? One... two percent?

You mean the Obama/Brzezinski agenda? He was Obama's Foreign Policy Advisor :eek: :

YouTube - The men behind Barack Obama part 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MouUJNG8f2k)