$3 million-plus .. campaign has seemingly acknowledged may be a good deal more

[Taco John]

Ron Paul's 'Big' Fund-Raising 3rd Quarter
Friday, September 28, 2007 - FreeMarketNews.com


NEWS ANALYSIS

Last quarter, FMNN was first with the news that Ron Paul's effort might result in a fund-surge of between $3 and $5 million. As it turned out the campaign raised almost $2.5 million, and this quarter, there are reports that Ron Paul could top that number significantly. But by how much?

The campaign itself has indicated that this quarter's total will exceed last quarter's - and that was apparently before the big fund-raising push to raise an additional $500,000. Now this $500,000 goal has been upped to $1 million and rumors are flying that the $3 million-plus that the campaign has seemingly acknowledged may be a good deal more than that.

How much more? Speculation is a game being played on many Ron Paul oriented web sites and posting boards. Whatever the total is, it will likely catch the attention of other candidates, Democratic and Republican who have been struggling with fund raising. John McCain has long been short on cash; Mitt Romney has injected a good deal of his personal fortune into his campaign; Rudy Giuliani's fund-raising head recently quit. Tancredo, Brownback and Hunter never attracted significant funds to begin with.

There is an observation, probably more true than not, that most politicans, with the exception of Ron Paul, are likely to lack a sense of a strong personal identity. Politics attracts those whose stock in trade is the ability to be "liked" on a surface level and a craving for that sort of attention. Often this leads to much more severe problems - as such people lack a moral compass and thus are as likely to give away billions without a second thought as they are to authorize brutality and commit murder - if they believe those around them approve. Such is their craving for attention and "instinct for survival."

Bearing this in mind, the question must be asked: Will Ron Paul's fund raising success (money being the currency of popularity) lead other in his party to rethink their current attraction to authoritarianism. Is Ron Paul's fund-raising success going to spawn a generation of GOP politicians that will utilize the rhetoric of libertarian-conservativism? In fact, Fred Thompson - a prototypical politician of the authoritarian variety - has already adopted Ron Paul's playbook on almost all issues but the war. And other GOP politicians are lurching in that direction as well.

FMNN has predicted that Ron Paul is leading a coming resurgance of libertarian-rhetoric at a national political level. He is literally changing the language of politics, much as did Barry Goldwater in the 1960s.

While the language is changing because "that's where the money is" and because the rhetoric must flow to areas that are not yet debased, such ephemera is yet noteworthy. Human beings are creatures of language and when the vocabulary shifts, so too do thought patterns. In the next decade, political pundits will endlessly debate the nuances of the platform that Ron Paul has erected and funded. This was exactly his hope, and he has already succeeded - probably beyond his "wildest dreams."

Ron Paul's current monetary success is no more than a yardstick; yet it is noteworthy and bound to have an impact far beyond what is apparent now. The combination of Ron Paul's fund raising success and rhetoric is literally changing the face of American politics. Think what will happen if he actually wins a primary.


http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=49577&fb=1

[Sematary]

Nice - the numbers aren't even out and word is starting to spread already. :)

[reduen]

When he wins the primary!

Nice post...

[Cowlesy]

Great, Free Market News once again getting everyone all fired up about how much cash is going to be raised.

They did this last quarter too...what is their deal?

[Patriot]

At the current rate of donations, I am projecting that Ron Paul will raise $1,300,000+ by mid-night 9/30. If he has already exceeded the $2,400,000 from Q2 then the Q3 number would be about $3,700,000+.

Therefor current cash on hand $2.4M + $3.7M = $6,000,000!

That will make Ron Paul the 6 million dollar man.
Better.
Stronger.
More constitutional.

[IRO-bot]

That will make Ron Paul the 6 million dollar man.
Better.
Stronger.
More constitutional.

I almost pee'ed my pants on that one. Way to funny.

[Santana28]

LOL... i hate guessing but i'm sticking with 6.5 mil - 7.5 mil, and i'm not thinking about it ANY MORE!

[TheIndependent]

I'm not going to speculate because when it comes to this kind of thing, I hold steadfastly to the old adage of: "Expect the worst, hope for the best."

That isn't to say I'm not excited at the possibilities, but guessing too high and coming out too low would be more a bummer than a motivation. Helps to keep things in perspective, in my opinion.

[Chester Copperpot]

Great, Free Market News once again getting everyone all fired up about how much cash is going to be raised.

They did this last quarter too...what is their deal?

Theyre Canadians.. WTF do they know... Seriously, if they give ANY estimate just cut it in half. and thatll be about right

[Chester Copperpot]

At the current rate of donations, I am projecting that Ron Paul will raise $1,300,000+ by mid-night 9/30. If he has already exceeded the $2,400,000 from Q2 then the Q3 number would be about $3,700,000+.

Therefor current cash on hand $2.4M + $3.7M = $6,000,000!

That will make Ron Paul the 6 million dollar man.
Better.
Stronger.
More constitutional.

YOu forgot about fundraising expenses for the quarter.. Im saying a million just to be conservative.. so deduct a million fro your 6 million

[manuel]

At the current rate of donations, I am projecting that Ron Paul will raise $1,300,000+ by mid-night 9/30. If he has already exceeded the $2,400,000 from Q2 then the Q3 number would be about $3,700,000+.

Therefor current cash on hand $2.4M + $3.7M = $6,000,000!

That will make Ron Paul the 6 million dollar man.
Better.
Stronger.
More constitutional.
Surely, he doesn't have the whole amount raised last quarter still untouched. The campaign has spent some of that money, if not most.

[Thomas_Paine]

My guess is the campaign has spent 1.5 mil this quarter.

[slantedview]

"Bearing this in mind, the question must be asked: Will Ron Paul's fund raising success (money being the currency of popularity) lead other in his party to rethink their current attraction to authoritarianism."

I think that's a good question to ask. If it shifts national mentality, that's a good thing.

[slantedview]

My guess is the campaign has spent 1.5 mil this quarter.

I'd hope less than that.

[Sematary]

I'd hope less than that.

I would think alot less than that. I believe they are holding out to execute a massive media attack on the early primary states about 6 to 8 weeks before the respective primaries.

[njandrewg]

I'm surprised FMN is not reporting 20 million

[FluffyUnbound]

I think they'll raise in the 5 million range, with this final push.

I wish it was just a leeeeeetle higher because the word is that Thompson has only raised 6 mil, and that McCain is doing even worse.

It would be great to beat those SOB's.

[Vonhayek7]

Going to say the low 5 million mark.

[kickzman]

There isn't no "IF" to it. Ron Paul will win a primary. Probably several primaries. The snowball has started down the mountain. Get on board or get out of the way, the avalanche is coming.


U can bet on it.

[libertythor]

If he loses the first ones, a good talking point to voters in the remaining states is this: Ronald Reagan rallied against Gerald Ford and only lost by 1 delegate.

He tried again 4 years later and got the nomination.

[SouthernGuy15]

The truth of the matter is that other candidates may talk about small government, lower taxes, and defending our rights. However, they are only running their mouths and have no personal drive to do those things. They are not really small government, but only saying what people want to hear.

Ron Paul on the other hand is the real deal. He has a track record of being for small government and maximum freedom! It has earned him HATE from both Republicans and Democrats. It has resulted in his name, "Dr. No!"

The difference between Ron Paul and everyone else is that he speaks the truth. That is why we should support Ron Paul. He is the only candidate that will walk the walk.

Keep donating for Ron Paul!

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

4.2 million is my guess.

[maxmerkel]

i never listen to freemarketnews, nearly everything they report about RP is wrong - wether it fundraising numbers, endorsements or anything else. but i think $3Million is a good guess.

[stones88]

Great, Free Market News once again getting everyone all fired up about how much cash is going to be raised.

They did this last quarter too...what is their deal?

exactly, i immediately thought 'here we go again'.

[Starks]

I expect at least 5 million.

[mport1]

Take what Free Market News says and divide it in half for a good estimate of where we will end up.

[stevedasbach]

At the current rate of donations, I am projecting that Ron Paul will raise $1,300,000+ by mid-night 9/30. If he has already exceeded the $2,400,000 from Q2 then the Q3 number would be about $3,700,000+.

Therefor current cash on hand $2.4M + $3.7M = $6,000,000!

That will make Ron Paul the 6 million dollar man.
Better.
Stronger.
More constitutional.

My spreadsheet (based on average donation rates, not current) projects just over $1M by midnight 9/30.

[BLS]

I personally believe he's raised somewhere in the 10 mill range.

But I'll also speculate he's spent ALOT more than the $600k he spent last quarter.
I'd say he's probably spent close to 2 - 2.5 mill.

Iowa Straw Poll was like $200,000 alone.
Knowing Dr. Paul's conservative spending habits, he's NOT dipped into anything made this quarter, thus all 'earnings' this Q are 'cash in hand'.

I'd say he out raised most if not all R's

[RonPaulFever]

This speculation has to stop. It's pointless.

[tony]

The truth of the matter is that other candidates may talk about small government, lower taxes, and defending our rights. However, they are only running their mouths and have no personal drive to do those things. They are not really small government, but only saying what people want to hear.

Ron Paul on the other hand is the real deal. He has a track record of being for small government and maximum freedom! It has earned him HATE from both Republicans and Democrats. It has resulted in his name, "Dr. No!"

The difference between Ron Paul and everyone else is that he speaks the truth. That is why we should support Ron Paul. He is the only candidate that will walk the walk.

Keep donating for Ron Paul!

SouthernGuy's right on the money here. I feel that its actually worse for the other candidates to start mimicing Ron Paul's talking points. The average voter will be swayed by what they say, rather than look at what they will do, or have done in the past.

[amonasro]

This speculation has to stop. It's pointless.

...yet so much fun :)

I'm saying it's over 5 million.

[RPatTheBeach]

I'm going to guess he raised $2,400,001.97

[Ron Paul Fan]

It is rather useless to guess what he raised since all that matters is what he really raised. We might know for sure how much as early as late next week. Last quarter, I remember that we knew how much he raised a day or two after the 4th of July and that quarter ended June 30th. I'm hoping he's got enough to shock everyone, including the media. Dr. Paul said that was what he wanted to do in the message he sent out yesterday.

The raise to win promotion this week is very encouraging and I think that's why people are guessing high numbers. We've been raising about $150,000 a day and if you multiply that by 90 days, you get $13,500,000. I don't think we've been raising that much every day, but even if we've been doing a quarter of that much, you have $37,500 times 90 days and you get $3,375,000. And we haven't even added in his dinners and fundraisers. I don't know what an accurate number would be for online donations though. $37,500 a day may be too high. Anyone have any thoughts on what an accurate number for online donations would be per day? I can't remember how much we raised online last quarter. I think it was around $1,000,000 and over 90 days that is $11,111 per day.

[smtwngrl]

Anyone have any thoughts on what an accurate number for online donations would be per day? I can't remember how much we raised online last quarter. I think it was around $1,000,000 and over 90 days that is $11,111 per day.

Well, I don't know about *online* donations. But here is the breakdown of last quarter's contributions by date. http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2007/Q2/C00432914/A_DATE_C00432914.html

I was doing some figuring recently. So I rounded each day to thousands, added them together, and divided by the days in the month to get the average contributions per day. It was about 4,000 in April, 16,000 in May, and 22,000 in June.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Well, I don't know about *online* donations. But here is the breakdown of last quarter's contributions by date. http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2007/Q2/C00432914/A_DATE_C00432914.html

I was doing some figuring recently. So I rounded each day to thousands, added them together, and divided by the days in the month to get the average contributions per day. It was about 4,000 in April, 16,000 in May, and 22,000 in June.

Yes, but if you add up all of those numbers you only get about $1.3 million. Where's the other $1.1 million? Maybe this breakdown is just offline donations or just online donations. One would think that both numbers went up considerably this quarter. I mean, we might raise as much online in 7 days as we did the entire last quarter! And Dr. Paul's west coast swing alone a couple weeks ago supposedly earned somewhere around $500,000.

[angelatc]

Great, Free Market News once again getting everyone all fired up about how much cash is going to be raised.

They did this last quarter too...what is their deal?

My sentiments exactly. Why people repeat it is another question that rattles around in my empty little head....

Perhaps they weren't here to experience that nonsense last quarter.

[david.griffus]

I'm betting that if we get to the $1 mm mark on this little thermometer challenge that the campaign will have raised around $4.5 - $5.0 mm for the last quarter. That's just my guess.

[CasualApathy]

It seems reasonable to believe that we are around 4 million minimum.

Remember there was a press-release before the big 500k-1 mill online push that said that we would do better then last quarter. So that is 2,4 mill at that point. Add a mill, and its 3,4. Add "fill the quill" and its 3,6.

I say 4 because im an optimist :D

[brandon]

I am saying 7-8 mil

[Hurricane Bruiser]

Since I like to keep expectations high, I'd say he raised at least $1 this quarter and be done with it.

I put together a graph of the past two quarters numbers here http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1382617140&size=o and based on that each day is easily $30,000 which amounts to $2.7 million. I believe it will be higher but don't want to have too high of hopes.

Patience is so much fun.

[Blowback]

My guess is 5.8M

[Sakimoto]

5 million this quarter. Since they are frugal, I say they spent slightly over a million of their funds this quarter. Sooo.... Over 6 million cash on hand. :) Useless but fun...

[Pete]

The thermometer $1 million is for 6 days of online contributions, right? If so, I'm very optimistic, $6+ million.

A lot of people (especially wealthy ones) don't trust online payments, so I'm betting that the mail-ins are very good this week, too.

I'm hoping that the grass catches on fire and the campaign raises $50+ million for the primary season. The idea is not that outrageous. Yesterday I made the first political contribution of my life, and I am over 50. That's because I've mainly been holding my nose to vote. I know that I'm hardly alone in this.

[TechnoGuyRob]

If you send a check on Friday, but it arrives, say, Tuesday, does it still count? Does the postal mail postmark the date on EVERY piece of mail?

[DrNoZone]

Here's some food for thought. I just listened to a speech he gave in Iowa on August 9th where he said they'd just had the best single day fundraising the campaign has had up to that point: $75k in one day! And that was in August. Imagine how big those single large days are getting now, nearing October?

[TheIndependent]

I suspect the campaign is still being frugal with funds in order to make an incredible late push when push comes to shove and primary voting nears.

[RP4ME]

if you are a top tier candidate what is a good number to have raised thsi quarter? Whats respectable? for ex. ghoulinai???

[fez2008]

if you are a top tier candidate what is a good number to have raised thsi quarter? Whats respectable? for ex. ghoulinai???
Respectable for top tier: 12+ HC and BO are reporting 18-20 mil according to cnn
Expected:
RJ - 12-15 mil
JM - 8 mil
FT - 7mil
MR - 5 mil + 7 mil self
RP - 5mil
MH - 2 mil