Who will RP definitely beat in Q3 funding? Who will drop out?

[Starks]

Any guesses?

[honkywill]

Hillary and Obama combined.

P.S. I'm a horrible guesser.

[libertythor]

Dropping out is a shot in the dark guess.

I think he will beat the other people at the Tavis Smiley debate, and there is a shot at blowing McCain out of the water.

[BuddyRey]

He'll definitely beat McCain, who is simply dead weight at this point. I'm also wagering that Hunter or Brownback will bow out soon.

[foofighter20x]

Hillary and Obama combined.

P.S. I'm a horrible guesser.

hahaha... :D

He'll beat'em all, cept the media "blessed" top tier.

It'd be awesome if he beat Thompson though... I'll keep my fingers crossed.

The real person to beat is Huckabee, though. He's been upgraded by the media from 2nd to quasi-1st tier status. If we can figuratively blow his campaign boat out of the water, we'll reap millions in free media publicity.

[Perry]

Giuliani Thompson & Romney will all i think obviously beat Paul in fundraising. McCain might or might not. Hopefully no one drops out. This scenerio can only play well into Pauls hands. Imho it will all be by the numbers though.

[Tuck]

I think Romney only managed to raise about 6 million in Q3 before lending himself another 6 million. There was also reports that he "tapped out" his core supporters, same for Rudy. If we manage to top Romney's pre self-donation numbers the MSM would probably blow out their brains

[Richandler]

Yah wouldn't it be cool if this last million dollar shake up for the Paul campaign gets him in that little graphic for top Republican fund raisers.

All I know is t will at least make some noise. Hopefully the media finally goes: "Let's just let the 'loon' get the coverage, it'll give us more ratings at least... and we know he can't beat Hillary."

[Ozwest]

I worry about pressure from the Mainstream to shorten the number of Candidates in the debates. We need to keep the donations comming as they will look for any excuse to drop Ron.

[hard@work]

I worry about pressure from the Mainstream to shorten the number of Candidates in the debates. We need to keep the donations comming as they will look for any excuse to drop Ron.

Heck, we need to make donation a standard part of being a Ron Paul supporter.

[smtwngrl]

At the end of last quarter, he already beat all of the 2nd tier candidates. Also, he had as much cash on hand as all of them put together.

This time around, he will widen the gap (especially for cash on hand). Of course, it sounds like some of them will be taking matching funds, so we will have to see how much that will leave them with. But I still expect the gap will be wider than last time.

Romney--At the end of last quarter, he had about $12 million in cash, and $9 million in debt (his loans to his campaign). He spent big bucks on the Straw Poll. My guess is that he probably hasn't curbed his spending significantly over the 2nd quarter. A large number of his contributors last quarter maxed out (compared to only 25% of Ron Paul's).

I doubt his fundraising was more this time than last. But, who can say? I'm very interested to find out his fundraising and cash on hand.

McCain--I'm guessing that Dr. Paul may have more cash on hand than McCain this time, too (but maybe not). It does seem like McCain made an effort to cut costs.
But with all the media talk about his campaign being on the downturn, how was his fundraising affected?

Thompson--We will see, but I don't see him outraising Ron.

So that leaves Giuliani--Giuliani will, I'm sure, be the top fundraiser. And as he manages his money well, too, his campaign chest should be in good shape. I am curious, though, since he fired his fundraising director, to see how his 3rd quarter donations compare to the 2nd quarter ones.

Who will drop out? Cox, maybe. I like the way he was nodding and agreeing with Ron's closing speech in the Value Voters Debate. I'm hoping when he drops out, he will throw his support to Ron Paul. ;)

Without matching funds, some others could be out. But with them, I expect them to hang on for awhile longer. If anyone else leaves, it could be Tancredo. I don't know when he has to throw his hat in to run for re-election in the house. But since he can't run for both at the same time, he may be one of the first to go.

[USPatriot36]

It would be good if Tancredo, Brownback, Keyes and Hunter dropped out. They won't get many votes in any state but they clutter the field and the debates. That is the only reason they (other than Tancredo) are hanging around, in my opinion. But I don't think anyone will drop out before Iowa and New Hampshire vote.

From MSM reports, all the Republican candidates (other than Paul and possibly Huckabee) are doing worse in the 3rd Quarter than the 2nd. I feel sure Paul will out perform Huckabee. I think he will be neck and neck with Fred Thompson and John McCain for amount raised in 3rd Quarter.

Net cash on hand I think that he may be 2nd only to Giuliani in the Republican party. Ron Paul 2nd in Cash on Hand? Pray like its all up to God and Give like it is all up to US.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

matching funds don't kick in until jan 1st, 2008, no?

[smtwngrl]

Is there anyone who knows how matching funds work, though? Is it just the donations in the present quarter that are matched, or what?

[smtwngrl]

Oh, really?

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Oh, really?

that's what I was told

[MozoVote]

If Ron beats Fred, considering the month or two of fawning over Fred that the media has done before entering the race - I think it would be big news.

After all, Freddy was staying out of announcing in order to focus on raising money. He has not even been in a debate YET.

[angelatc]

At the end of last quarter, he already beat all of the 2nd tier candidates. Also, he had as much cash on hand as all of them put together.

This time around, he will widen the gap (especially for cash on hand). Of course, it sounds like some of them will be taking matching funds, so we will have to see how much that will leave them with. But I still expect the gap will be wider than last time.

I think his spending is going to be waaaaay up this time. He's hired lots of staff, as evidenced on the ronpaul2008.com web page. Plus he has been jetting around the country like a madman.

Those things aren't cheap.

I think the new fundrasising guy is brilliant though.:)

[mtmedlin]

Guiliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain will probable out raise Rp BUT they will also outspend RP. Cash on Hand, I bet RP is fourth. Mccain fifth, Huckabee 6th and who cares after that.
Hunter will not drop out. He needs a stump to continue feeling important and to talk about his son in Iraq who is coming back and planning on taking his dad's seat in the House. He really has no reason to drop.
Tancredo is actually building a small following. He had a decent debate last night and the more he sounds like RP the better he does. I think he holds on till early primaries unless he decided to run for the house again.
Brownback is my choice for the "Dropsies" award. He cant debate. He sounds like the little kid in the back of the room who is annoying and keeps saying "me too" to everybody elses opinion. He has no money to speak of and I would guess he wants to run for his house seat. Kansas doesnt let you run for two positions, so he has to decide soon. Since he doesnt have a chance for the presidency, I think he bows out shortly.

[angelatc]

Is there anyone who knows how matching funds work, though? Is it just the donations in the present quarter that are matched, or what?

Here's what Wikipedia says:

In American politics the term matching funds refers to the money a presidential candidate is given by federal government to match the money they have raised personally. Candidates can expect up to $250 extra from public funds for each contribution from an individual they receive.

This usually only applies to the two main parties; as for third party candidates gaining the benefits of matching funds they must additionally have received 5% of the popular vote in the previous election. Hence the anomaly of Ross Perot standing as Reform Party candidate in 1992 and receiving 18% of the vote, yet receiving no matching funds due to the fact that the Reform Party did not receive 5% of the vote in 1988; whilst Pat Buchanan, running as the Reform Party candidate in 2000, did receive matching funds despite winning only 0.4% of the vote.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

From an online Denver magazine http://www.5280.com/blog/?p=2663:

Tancredo, a Littleton Republican known for his criticism of U.S. immigration policies, now will get a dollar-for-dollar match up to the first $250 of every contribution he’s received this year.

In paperwork filed June 30 with the Federal Election Commission, Tancredo had raised $2.8 million and had about $556,000 on hand.

Qualifying for matching funds means Tancredo’s campaign can get a bank loan for about $2.5 million, Buchanan said. That loan is paid back with the matching funds, which will come beginning next year.

I didn't realize Tancredo had out-raised RP last quarter. Hmmmm.

[JohnCrabtree]

I think Fundraising will be something like this:

Giulliani: $15 million
Romney 7 million + 4 million loan to self
Ron Paul 6.5 Million
Fred Thompson 6 million
McCain 5 Million
Huckabee 3 million
Tancredo + Hunter <2 million

Cash On Hand ( Minus Debt)

Giulliani: $15 million
Ron Paul: $5 million
Thompson$2 million
Huckabee $500,000
Tancredo: 100,000
Hunter: 100,000
McCain -2 million
Romney -7 Million

Of course Romney has what a 1/4 billion to throw at this election? BTW These are swag (statistical wild ass guess) statistics, but theyre the best I can think of.

[Chester Copperpot]

From an online Denver magazine http://www.5280.com/blog/?p=2663:


I didn't realize Tancredo had out-raised RP last quarter. Hmmmm.

I think that was for 6 months of fundraising.
it wasnt just for Q2

[JosephTheLibertarian]

what about the fundraisers? they don't count towards your graphs

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

I think that was for 6 months of fundraising.
it wasnt just for Q2

That makes more sense.

[Cowlesy]

If Ron raises $3.0 million, he can boast that not only did he beat his Q2 number, but his Q1 and Q2 combined.

People are going to be dropping out during Q4 I believe. Brownback, Tancredo, Hunter aren't even trying to raise money online with a special campaign. Huckabee as of this morning is allegedly 783 donations away from 2,500 for the entire month of September, and is apparently saying that "we won't raise a lot of money, but we are raising support for our ideas".

We've hopefully topped off the cash-gas-tank to get Paul through Q4, and we should make a HUGE drive to get the message out in Q4 to spark more donations from new folks.

This campaign is gaining so much momentum, Q4 is going to be the time to kick things into gear!

[regoarrarr]

If anyone else leaves, it could be Tancredo. I don't know when he has to throw his hat in to run for re-election in the house. But since he can't run for both at the same time, he may be one of the first to go.

I thought I read that there was no rule saying you couldn't run for both? Or maybe it's a state thing since I thought I had read that Dr. Paul was planning on standing for his House seat as well

[DrNoZone]

I don't know where it's at now, but last night I checked out John Edward's fundraising push; he's going for $1million in 10 days. This means that he's had 6 days as of last night, and RP has had 4, in their respective challenges. So, based on last nights fundraising numbers for both campaigns, it looks like Edwards is raising about $108k per day and RP is pulling in about $150k per day. Go RP!

[JosephTheLibertarian]

I thought I read that there was no rule saying you couldn't run for both? Or maybe it's a state thing since I thought I had read that Dr. Paul was planning on standing for his House seat as well

you can run for both in Texas.. you cannot where Tancredo is from ;)

[smtwngrl]

I thought I read that there was no rule saying you couldn't run for both? Or maybe it's a state thing since I thought I had read that Dr. Paul was planning on standing for his House seat as well

It is a state thing. In Colorado, you can't run for both at once. In Texas, you can.

[trispear]

Guiliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain will probable out raise Rp BUT they will also outspend RP. Cash on Hand, I bet RP is fourth. Mccain fifth, Huckabee 6th and who cares after that.

I think Ron already had more cash on hand than McCain last quarter.