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View Full Version : Do you believe Ron Paul can win the election without winning NH?




paulitics
09-27-2007, 05:52 PM
Do you believe Ron Paul can win the election without winning NH? This is the question we need to ask ourselves right now because we not taking it seriously enough. The NH meetup groups are handing out literature, knocking on doors, and putting up signs, which is the best utilization of their time.

We should be writing letters, and making phone calls. We should have several sticky threads already with an abundance of ideas. Remember Iowa? We should be doing the same thing times 10 and not a month before the primary. We should work much harder and more than we think we need to on this state to ensure victory. If we win NH, we get millions of positive publicity and a huge boost in every state reaching critical mass which will make a win in other less Paul friendly states possible. Another state that is important is Iowa, however, I don't think this one will break us if we lose, but we should not neglect this state either.

I mean we are only at 4% in NH. Imagine if we were at 12% right now...we could point to that number to anyone else on the fence anywhere in the country. So I don't know why we are waiting when we can be benefiting today for it.

ItsTime
09-27-2007, 05:58 PM
wait a few weeks. he will be 12% or higher here. I also voted yes he can. If he comes in a close second or third then he can win the bigger states.

Dave Wood
09-27-2007, 06:00 PM
Do you believe Ron Paul can win the election without winning NH? This is the question we need to ask ourselves right now because we not taking it seriously enough. The NH meetup groups are handing out literature, knocking on doors, and putting up signs, which is the best utilization of their time.

We should be writing letters, and making phone calls. We should have several sticky threads already with an abundance of ideas. Remember Iowa? We should be doing the same thing times 10 and not a month before the primary. We should work much harder and more than we think we need to on this state to ensure victory. If we win NH, we get millions of positive publicity and a huge boost in every state reaching critical mass which will make a win in other less Paul friendly states possible. Another state that is important is Iowa, however, I don't think this one will break us if we lose, but we should not neglect this state either.

I mean we are only at 4% in NH. Imagine if we were at 12% right now...we could point to that number to anyone else on the fence anywhere in the country. So I don't know why we are waiting when we can be benefiting today for it.

Answer: NO! We need New Hampshire. It is key to our platform and overall philosophy. You are 110% Dead on....we need to really focus on New Hampshire quickly. We also need to focus on South Carolina, hard. It isnt an easy sell there but that state is the REAL DEAL as far as the south is concerned....S.C. is a political leader down there and if we ignore her we are done in the red states.

New Hampshire is first and foremost!

paulitics
09-27-2007, 06:00 PM
wait a few weeks. he will be 12% or higher here. I also voted yes he can. If he comes in a close second or third then he can win the bigger states.

How do you know he will be at 12% or higher in a few weeks? If you ask 100 people, how many have heard of RP? And do all libertarians and democrats know they have to switch parties ASAP.

paulitics
09-27-2007, 06:01 PM
Answer: NO! We need New Hampshire. It is key to our platform and overall philosophy. You are 110% Dead on....we need to really focus on New Hampshire quickly. We also need to focus on South Carolina, hard. It isnt an easy sell there but that state is the REAL DEAL as far as the south is concerned....S.C. is a political leader down there and if we ignore her we are done in the red states.

New Hampshire is first and foremost!

Yeah I agree about SC as being a key state in the south...and I believe if we win NH, we can win SC.

Nash
09-27-2007, 06:04 PM
If we can't win in the "Live free of die" state then we aren't going to win anywhere else.

NH is basically the whole campaign up to that point. A national campaign must be run now to benefit us following NH but there better be a major ad blitz on NH TV at least a month before the primary vote there or somebody isn't doing their job correctly at HQ.

We can't win the remaining states without a NH primary victory. The good news though is that by winning in NH we can then establish enough credibility to win in remaining states as well.

The real smear campaign won't start until we win there though, what we've seen so far is nothing compared to what will show up then.

Ron Paul Fan
09-27-2007, 06:07 PM
I think he can win the nomination without winning New Hampshire if he wins all of the other states or just enough to get the nomination.

dt_
09-27-2007, 06:45 PM
isn't New Hampshire supposed to be Paul's best shot at winning the nomination? the campaign should focus on that state and hopefully they will see results.

csen
09-27-2007, 06:50 PM
The object right now should still be to gather as many troops as possible to spread the message. Buchanan and McCain won New Hampshire and then flamed out everywhere else -- yes, NH is crucially important, but so are a number of other states. None of the pro-war candidates are going to run away with this thing, especially if Gingrich enters the field and complicates it even further. We'll be in this thing to the end.

Grandson of Liberty
09-27-2007, 06:51 PM
I'd say landing anywhere in the top three gives him a heck of a shot at winning it all.

LibertyEagle
09-27-2007, 06:53 PM
If people do not know who he is in New Hampshire, I do not understand why. He has a fairly large following in that state and several paid campaign staff.

What is everyone doing? I mean, really?

csen
09-27-2007, 06:56 PM
If people do not know who he is in New Hampshire, I do not understand why. He has a fairly large following in that state and several paid campaign staff.

What is everyone doing? I mean, really?

There are just a lot of people not paying serious attention yet. At work I'm surrounded by Republicans who are fairly well-read and even they have no idea deciding between Rudy, McCain, Thompson, and Romney (they all dismiss RP for foreign policy).

Ron Paul Fan
09-27-2007, 06:58 PM
They're sitting around playing video games. What the hell do you think they're doing? Just the other day we jumped on specialtyblend or whatever his or her name was because she couldn't get through to the campaign. everyone replied and said that the campaign was very busy. And now we're saying that they're not doing anything! Make up your mind! The campaign staff is working hard. Do you think they want Dr. Paul to lose? They have just as much at stake here as we do. Let's not blame the campaign staff, let's thank them.

trispear
09-27-2007, 06:58 PM
We need momentum early on, and that means winning some states early on.

We need to find out how to get Mark Sanford on board with Ron Paul, he's the governor of South Carolina and a friend/colleague of Pauls.

I don't know why people like him and Napolitano stay on the sidelines:/

max
09-27-2007, 06:59 PM
no...

thats why, although i live in nj (Giuliani backyard)..i am focusing on NH...

a win in a small libertarian state like NH is a must and will do more to help all of us in our respective states than all of the things we can do individually...

i say we flood NH

paulitics
09-27-2007, 07:14 PM
I live in Jersey too, and Giuliani is at 40% vs Paul 3%.....My efforts are better spent helping out NH. People in Mass should help out as well, being Mitts home state. This is chess.

toowm
09-27-2007, 08:13 PM
Didn't answer the poll because I really think he's going to win NH. He has 6% in the most recent poll here, and I expect his true support is double digits (many of us have no land lines). There are huge signs on private property and even bigger ones on overpasses, etc. that last a few days.

My family is excited about the family walk on Saturday. I don't think the campaign has run any TV ads yet, but some of the recent surge in donations will definitely end up on WMUR. NH is more freedom-loving and anti-war that any state I have been in this year. We just need to keep the activist motivated (and lots of them are freestaters that will not get burned out), and push for the next four months.

klamath
09-27-2007, 09:48 PM
For those that think that RP can win without winning NH, just what state is he more likely to win??? NH has a huge independent voting block that tends to go for mavericks. If RP isn't a maverick WHO is. SC is an important state for the south but you are dealing with more of the Christian right. As we have seen RP doesn't do his best with the Christian Right. For those of you that don't take NH the most serious you will live to regret it.
I can understand the campaign holding off on spending money on ads when they only have so much to spend until the last month. People have very short memories in politics and the effect of ads before that could be forgotten by the time the election rolls around.

dircha
09-27-2007, 09:53 PM
Wasn't it just a week ago that there was a post on these forums reporting that the national campaign organizer for the region was actively discouraging New York and New Jersey supporters from spending their time supporting the effort in New Hampshire?

If that's true, what the hell kind of strategy is that?

klamath
09-27-2007, 10:13 PM
Wasn't it just a week ago that there was a post on these forums reporting that the national campaign organizer for the region was actively discouraging New York and New Jersey supporters from spending their time supporting the effort in New Hampshire?

If that's true, what the hell kind of strategy is that?

If someone said that I would seriously consider they were trolls. IF the staff said that RP needs to fire the lot of them.:mad:

Badger Paul
09-27-2007, 10:20 PM
It really comes down to five small states in January: Wyoming, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa. Win these and the momentum gained will vault RP towards the nomination.

New Hampshire's the key given that independent can vote in its primary, the libertarian culture of the state and FSP activists. If RP's message can't sell here it won't sell anywhere else.

dt_
09-27-2007, 10:24 PM
^ You said Iowa twice :)

tiznow
09-27-2007, 10:24 PM
y romney floundering in NH, rudy now tied with him, and alot of people aren't dead set in their ways......if he can't win NH a very libertarian state to begin with the writing is on the wall IMO.

Thom1776
09-27-2007, 10:34 PM
New Hampshire is "Do or Die" PERIOD!

McCain now LIVES in New Hampshire, because he needs it just as badly. Romney is fighting hard there, because HE needs it just as badly.

Giuliani and Thompson don't need to win there because they have the national name recognition that will carry them in other states.

Ron Paul needs to reach a statewide poll threshold of 10% in NH by the end of this year. If he can do that, then I feel comfortable that he will win the primary with the votes he will get from all the non-republicans who vote in the primary.

So this is how it breaks down:

Paul, Romney and McCain are fighting hardest for New Hampshire. One of them will win, in fact, they should finish 1-2-3. Giuliani and Thompson are not going to waste there time and money there, so will end up in the 4th and 5th spots.

Here is my optimistic prediction:

Paul----------27%
Romney-----23%
McCain------20%
Giuliani------14%
Thompson--10%
Huckabee----4%
Other---------2%

If Paul does not win New Hampshire, we should immediately switch to plan B.

Question_Authority
09-27-2007, 10:44 PM
Ron Paul needs to move to NH for the next 3 months. Literally. And make quick trips to Iowa and S. Carolina. His campaign has virtually ignored NH, except when there is a debate happening here. It is a source of frustration for many of us NH people. :(

wgadget
09-27-2007, 10:48 PM
I WANT New Hampshire!

Harpakhrad11
09-27-2007, 11:04 PM
Yes, but it would seem unlikely.

MadEmperor
09-27-2007, 11:23 PM
When is this straw pull? Also, do we have any pliminary poll results?

I remember when Iowa happened many knew that he was only going to get about 6th, yet many thought he'd get #1 just because.

What do those same people think he will get in NH? I hope he has a real chance at NH =D

Go Ron Paul +D

daviddee
09-28-2007, 12:23 AM
Here is a factoid: NO Republican that has not won NH has won the Presidency.

Check it out... If you lose the NH primary you will not be president. You can lose the NH primary and become the nominee though (example: Dole)

I voted for Pat Buchanan... he was polling low and everyone was calling him a "whack job". The support he had with the common man was tremendous. You have to understand that the issues he spoke of 10+ years ago are the issues that are huge today - on a larger scale. He was bringing the illegal alien issues to the forefront... NAFTA... Big government....

After Pat's win in NH they MSM put their smear campaigns into overdrive. I used to watch the newscasts on national TV and blurbs from the California news they would rerun and they just crucified him. This was long before the internet so the smear campaigns could not be countered.


-dd

Grandson of Liberty
09-28-2007, 12:49 AM
While I don't think he needs to win it, he needs to do well enough for the rest of the country to take notice. That's why I think top three is huge for him, especially if it's close percentage-wise. Hopefully he'll have a big enough warchest left to start hammering all the people who finally start asking "Who's this Ron Paul guy?" If he does well enough that he's not ignored, and we do our jobs as grassroots volunteers, supporters and voters, he just may pull this thing off.

Jared Callanan
09-28-2007, 01:17 AM
We can win without New Hampshire but we do need a top three finish and good finishes in other states such as Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and or Maine.

Nash
09-28-2007, 01:56 AM
Buchanan rocketed up 15% in the polls the day after his NH win. That's why I think it's imperative that Ron Paul wins that state. If he cannot win in a state with an open primary and libertarian leanings then all the people who say "he can't win so I can't vote for him" will likely be right and they won't bother.

If he does win New Hampshire he gets a huge poll bounce and every saying "he can't win so I can't vote for him" will immediately reconsider.

It's really that simple. New Hampshire is the most likely primary for him to win and by doing that he increases his chances in every primary that follow it.

paulitics
09-28-2007, 09:00 AM
bump

Drknows
09-28-2007, 09:06 AM
I think florida, ohio and iowa is where we need support.

RevolutionSD
09-28-2007, 09:21 AM
He needs to win NH or finish strongly in 2nd.

RP even said this himself when he was in L.A. Not those exact words but he basically said if we don't take NH, it becomes VERY difficult to win.

libertythor
09-28-2007, 09:25 AM
Buchanan was leading....then suddenly Steve Forbes spent a ton of money in Arizona, a winner-take-all state, and pulled ahead of Buchanan in delegates.

The MSM immediately jumped on that as supposed evidence that Pat Buchanan suddently didn't have a chance.

1 or 2 primaries later.....the media hardly covered the primaries even though the vast majority of delegates were at stake.

LibertyEagle
09-28-2007, 09:32 AM
Ron Paul needs to move to NH for the next 3 months. Literally. And make quick trips to Iowa and S. Carolina. His campaign has virtually ignored NH, except when there is a debate happening here. It is a source of frustration for many of us NH people. :(

I honestly don't understand the campaign's rationale for not spending more time in New Hampshire either. But, I'm sure they have a reason. I do hope that he starts spending much more time there beyond the upcoming walk this weekend.

They've got several campaign staff there, right? I'm assuming that there is a big effort between they and the grassroots to get the word out on the ground.