Republican Q3 funds

[brandon]

How do u guys think we are doing compared to the "top-tier"? I have a feeling, that even with this extra million we will raise this week, we will still be far behing ghouliani and thompson. I really hope i'm wrong

Here is my prediction in millions

thompson-21
Ghouliana-18
mccain - 14
romney - 11
paul - 8
huckabee - 6


I really wonder where the hell thompson and ghoul get thier money from...it seems like they dont even have supporters but they still manage to get money some how.

[ctb619]

you seriously think McCain will raise $14 million?

[ThePieSwindler]

I thought i heard somewhere that thompson's numbers were dissapointing. And of course, rudy just fired his fundraising manager. Also, theres no way huckabee got 5.5 million this quarter (he had almost half a million last quarter) - he could barely get more than a few dozen people to sign his online donation pledge. Id say hes at around a million. I thikn your numbers are pretty inaccurate.

[paulitics]

I think your numbers are too high for everyone including us.

[jonahtrainer]

I really wonder where the hell thompson and ghoul get thier money from...it seems like they dont even have supporters but they still manage to get money some how.

There is big money in the current Establishment.

[brandon]

you seriously think McCain will raise $14 million?

Well fox said he won that last debate, and alot of the republican base will take fox's word on anything. I think that will give him a big boost.

[Zydeco]

8 mil is pushing it for RP. We're looking at more like 5-6 tops I think. Which is AWESOME, it more than doubles last quarter and Q3 is usually slower -- every other candidate will most likely be lower in Q3 except RP.

No way Fred has 21 mil. He's been lagging in fundraising, got 3M in June.

And Huckabee won't get 6 mil, he can't even get 2500 donation for the whole month of sept.

[Green Mountain Boy]

You are extremely high on all of them.

[brandon]

Ok maybe my numbers are too high, but i still think the ratio is about right

[mavtek]

Your numbers are just way over the top, sorry.

[Paulitician]

Huckabee 6 million? You must be joking :p

[brandon]

And Huckabee won't get 6 mil, he can't even get 2500 donation for the whole month of sept.

2500 donations can be alot depending on the amount donated. 2500 max donations would be 5.75 mil

[tiznow]

thompson doesn't have to report so we won't know

as far as money brought in q3 i'd go with

giuliani 13 mil
romney 11 mil
paul 5 mil
mccain 4.5 mil
huckabee 2.5 mil

[brandon]

Huckabee 6 million? You must be joking :p

It's just a guess, i really dont know what the results will be at all, i was hoping to see some other peoples guesses instead of just telling me how wrong i am :)

[libertarian4321]

I think you are waaay overestimating the "take" for most of these candidates, including Ron Paul. Ron got 2.4 million last quarter, and everyone was shocked- it would take a miracle for him to hit 8 million this quarter.

Remember all the crazy talk about "5 million" last quarter? When you put out wild numbers that the campaign has almost no chance of hitting, it looks like the campaign failed when they don't meet the wild expectations.

The summer quarter is usually slow. Plus, there seems to be no excitement for any of the Republicans other than Ron Paul.

[libertarian4321]

thompson doesn't have to report so we won't know

as far as money brought in i'd go with romney actually has raised more than giulani but he's also spent way more too.

giuliani 13 mil
romney 13 mil
paul 5 mil
mccain 4.5 mil
huckabee 2.5 mil

why doesn't Thompson have to report? He's in the campaign now.

[FreedomLover]

If Ron Paul were able to get 4 million this quarter, I would be pleased as punch.

If he gets 5 million, I'll be ecstatic.

[libertarian4321]

2500 donations can be alot depending on the amount donated. 2500 max donations would be 5.75 mil

Unless Huckaby is funded only by millionaires, I think its safe to say that his average donate will be nowhere near 2,300.

[Chernitsky]

you're clueless

[Phil M]

Thompson's actually had some fundraising problems.

[quickmike]

Rons grassroots support was estimated at about 13 million if you figured on paying every volunteer a wage. Sure the "top tier" candiates will raise more cash from special interests, no doubt about that. Cash isnt the only factor though. The others have to pay everyone to spread their message for them because they dont actually believe in the message.

This is very important when considering what cash has been raised.

Fred should get about 7 Mill I would say............... maybe less.

[FreedomLover]

most of the donors for the big guys have become maxed out by the 2nd quarter.

Im guessing no one gets over 10 million, except maybe romney with some extra help from his personal fortune.

[brandon]

I think you are waaay overestimating the "take" for most of these candidates, including Ron Paul. Ron got 2.4 million last quarter, and everyone was shocked- it would take a miracle for him to hit 8 million this quarter.

Remember all the crazy talk about "5 million" last quarter? When you put out wild numbers that the campaign has almost no chance of hitting, it looks like the campaign failed when they don't meet the wild expectations.

The summer quarter is usually slow. Plus, there seems to be no excitement for any of the Republicans other than Ron Paul.

Yea, well there is 12 weeks in the quarter, and he is getting 1 mil in just the last week(I am confident we will reach the goal). Of course i doubt he got 1 mil every week, but there is good reason to assume that he made about 500k every other week. That would put him at about 6.5 mil. And i was being generous by giving him the extra 1.5 :)

[csen]

My guesses:

Ron Paul $5mln
McCain $4.75mln
Huckabee $2mln

No idea about Romney/Rudy/Thompson

[tiznow]

why doesn't Thompson have to report? He's in the campaign now.

some stupid stipulation since he started so late....i think i read somewhere he won't have to report any numbers till after the caucuses/primaries begin....maybe he'll have to report q4 numbers not sure.

[quickmike]

My guesses:

Ron Paul $5mln
McCain $4.75mln
Huckabee $2mln

No idea about Romney/Rudy/Thompson

I would bet thats pretty close.

Wouldnt be suprised if McCains was lower though.

[ashlux]

I really wonder where the hell thompson and ghoul get thier money from...it seems like they dont even have supporters but they still manage to get money some how.

This website will answer some of your questions: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp

Consider Romney's Q1 and Q2 funds "raised":

Individual contributions $34,757,439 (78%)
PAC contributions $223,000 (1%)
Candidate self-financing $8,913,736 (20%)
Federal Funds $0 (0%)
Other (loans, interest from banks, etc.) $538,175 (1%)

And Giuliani's Q1 and Q2 funds "raised":

Individual contributions $33,327,384 (94%)
PAC contributions $219,158 (1%)
Candidate self-financing $0 (0%)
Federal Funds $0 (0%)
Other (loans, interest from banks, etc.) $2,082,723 (6%)

So, you can see not all of the money is actually given to the candidate (self-financing can be a big one).

Further, you can donate money to a candidate and earmark the funds for the general election (that money cannot be used for the primaries). That means a single donor with a spouse can make the contributions increase by $9,200. Clearly this can inflate fundraising totals for the primaries.

Even more, previous election campaign money counts (Hillary showed $10 million raised from unused from her 2006 Senate re-election campaign http://www.cnsnews.com/news/viewstory.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200704/POL20070402b.html).

[Chester Copperpot]

My guesses:

Ron Paul $5mln
McCain $4.75mln
Huckabee $2mln

No idea about Romney/Rudy/Thompson

Theres no way huckabee will get anywhere near that much.. the other day he only had 425 donation for the entire QUARTER..... if his avg donation is $100 then that $42,500

[ashlux]

Theres no way huckabee will get anywhere near that much.. the other day he only had 425 donation for the entire QUARTER..... if his avg donation is $100 then that $42,500

Where did you get the number of 425 donations for the entire quarter?

[maiki]

some stupid stipulation since he started so late....i think i read somewhere he won't have to report any numbers till after the caucuses/primaries begin....maybe he'll have to report q4 numbers not sure.

He has to report q4, but iowa might end up being in december or early january, so they wouldn't know until after that.

[Chester Copperpot]

Where did you get the number of 425 donations for the entire quarter?

One of the users here tracks Huckabee.. saw it on his website too.. His goal for the entire quarter is 2,500 contributions... He got 14 the other day

Theres a thread on here about it

[mavtek]

Theres no way huckabee will get anywhere near that much.. the other day he only had 425 donation for the entire QUARTER..... if his avg donation is $100 then that $42,500

I hope so! I don't think he pulls that much cash either. He only raked in $750,000 or so last quarter. I am afraid he's gained quite a few supporters so I think he may rake in double that this quarter. The good thing is I know that's no where near what Dr. Paul has received.

[brandon]

If u consider RP's meetup donation contest, he had to make a killing off that. PLus the 1 million this week, and all the other funds that came in, 8 mil would not surprise me.

[Chester Copperpot]

If u consider RP's meetup donation contest, he had to make a killing off that. PLus the 1 million this week, and all the other finds that came in, 8 mil would not surprise me.

Last quarter his online donation were only 80% of funds.l.. So I would assume that the other 20% came from mail in donations... roughly $500,000...

DOnt forget about those checks people mail in.

[csen]

Theres no way huckabee will get anywhere near that much.. the other day he only had 425 donation for the entire QUARTER..... if his avg donation is $100 then that $42,500

He raised $750k in Q2, and I figured I'd be really generous with his Iowa bump, plus he's done pretty well in some straw polls. If I had to put money on it I'd bet closer to $1.5mln though.

[Syren123]

My guess is closer to $5 mil.