Generic Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%

Support for Republican congressional candidates has risen to its highest level in recent years, giving the GOP a five-point lead over Democrats in the latest Congressional Ballot and stretching the out-of-power party's lead to six weeks in a row.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. . . .

[PaulaGem]

I wish each total was about 20 points lower - then maybe they'd get the message.

[Bradley in DC]

I wish each total was about 20 points lower - then maybe they'd get the message.

It's still a stark contrast with last November:

11-02-08 47% D, 41% R

[Bradley in DC]

Survey of polls;

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/10-us-house-genballot.php

[specsaregood]

It's still a stark contrast with last November:
11-02-08 47% D, 41% R

Doesn't seem very stark to me. It looks like the same 10% of swing voters.
The totals have lost 7%, but people aren't as interested politically since the elections are over. The core party-first people haven't changed, the Republicans picked up a 2 percent just because of some swing voters that stayed interested are pissed off.....Like PG said above, once you see those percentages drop a good 20-30% summed, we might be getting somewhere. Until then it is just business as usual.

[Bradley in DC]

Doesn't seem very stark to me. It looks like the same 10% of swing voters.
The totals have lost 7%, but people aren't as interested politically since the elections are over. The core party-first people haven't changed, the Republicans picked up a 2 percent just because of some swing voters that stayed interested are pissed off.....Like PG said above, once you see those percentages drop a good 20-30% summed, we might be getting somewhere. Until then it is just business as usual.

LOTS of races are determined by a swing of less than 10%. Without actually checking, I'd venture to guess control of the Congress might be determined by it.

In the link on the pollster.com site, some of the polls give the results for other/neither.

[specsaregood]

LOTS of races are determined by a swing of less than 10%. Without actually checking, I'd venture to guess control of the Congress might be determined by it.

Oh, I know. I guess my point and I think PG's point is that as long as both parties keep such a strong base of support, nothing will change. The Repulicans are just getting the bonus opposition support right now. As long as that core support remains, neither parties have a reason to change for the better and the 96% reelection rate will remain the same....



In the link on the pollster.com site, some of the polls give the results for other/neither.
I'll check them out. Have you? Notice anything worth commenting on?

[Bradley in DC]

Oh, I know. I guess my point and I think PG's point is that as long as both parties keep such a strong base of support, nothing will change. The Repulicans are just getting the bonus opposition support right now.

I see your (plural) point, but I have seen dramatic changes with few percentage point changes such as in the 1994 election (not that most of them stayed true...)


I'll check them out. Have you? Notice anything worth commenting on?

Most of them are what you'd expect with "other" in the mid-single digits--even assuming there is a third option on the ballot. Ballot access is a huge issue too. See Richard Winger's great site on that subject.
http://www.ballot-access.org/

I followed the third party totals during the presidential race and wrote about them.

http://www.nolanchart.com/author860.html

[Imperial]

The electorate as a whole still has the Democratic numbers I think, but the turnout has GOP control. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I for one think the Dems will retain control, both sides will make a couple gains and lose a few. Maybe the Repubs will gain a few more.

[Bradley in DC]

The electorate as a whole still has the Democratic numbers I think, but the turnout has GOP control. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I for one think the Dems will retain control, both sides will make a couple gains and lose a few. Maybe the Repubs will gain a few more.

That' one difference with Rasmussen and some others. Rasmussen surveys likely voters, while some others survey registered voters. Apples to apples trends (same poll over different points in time) are the best gauges.

I think all of these polls are so early as to be almost meaningless. Almost. People like Adam Kokesh need to utilize them on why he could win his race, etc. There is a competition now for fundraising, etc.

And again, it's August recess, so it's a slow news time for political reporters...

[Bradley in DC]

I wish each total was about 20 points lower - then maybe they'd get the message.

You may be getting your wish:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/08/10/democrats.poll/index.html

"A national poll released Monday indicates the Democratic Party is becoming less popular with voters but suggests that Republicans haven't been able to capitalize on the Democrats' downturn."