Whoa 500K to 1M more job losses likely.

[Sarge]

Rick Santelli just said they are revising the numbers from the first of the year and that it is much worse. He said anywhere from 500K to 1M more job losses than have been reported.

Something about the insured unemployment numbers showing worse. Something about the Biderman Trim Tab report. Hope I got it all right. Keep your ears and eyes open.

Larry Kudlow said he was aware of the report. Then why the hell didn't he report it before Rick Santelli.

If anyone can get that video clip up to re hear it would be appreciated. Just happened at 8:55 am.

If this is correct, so much for the green shoots BS.

[Sarge]

I found this blurb,

http://www.forexhound.com/article/Blogs/Michael_J_Panzner/More_than_One_Way_to_Skin_a_Recovery/150413

[Jeez]

They are revising Q1 job loss figures? sorry can't see the video.

Anyway as for recovery, yes job loss is slowing and companies are starting to spend again. That said question is whether people are going to go back to levels they used to spend or continue saving (one of my relatives who is a teller mentioned last year only retired had 6 digit bank accounts these days it is common sight) and whether we will have jobless recovery?

[Sarge]

No video yet. I did find this same comment on another board.

"Rick Santelli has a comment from Trimtabs that Jan – July unemployment may be understated by 500K to 1M jobs because Feds used withholdings instead of claims. Withholdings are several months in delay. Could be restated tomorrow."

I can believe the lower accounts on retirement. They will have to watch their money very close to survive.

[jclay2]

video: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1206780369&play=1

[Sarge]

Thank you for posting the video. Now those that are working can see it tonight.

Larry sure was choking and could hardly wait to try and soften what Rick was saying.

Well now BO just came out today and said unemployment could hit 10 percent. Do you think they just might already know the number. Lately it is like they are front running the numbers a day prior. Now if they want to tell the real truth, it is running more like 16 percent without the revision coming tomorrow.

[heavenlyboy34]

yayy! Isn't Obamunism grand? /sarcasm

[Sarge]

Yep, for him and his friends.

[TonySutton]

I was wondering about the smoke and mirrors. Remember last month when they were talking about the "bad" numbers on the economy and they weren't releasing them? Now we know why they withheld them and how they planned on "fixing" the numbers.

Just revise the old numbers to look worse than they actually were and presto, today's numbers aren't nearly so bad, in fact they are almost good (if you spin real fast to the left)

The sad thing is main street will not even notice...

[ArchPaul]

Ya rick said last week the traders are losing faith in the intial numbers because the revisions are so huge. They think they can keep flying under the radar, but too many people are paying attention. With data thats fast and easy to access, we see through the lies.. the gig is up, but they act like we're still in the dark ages.

I'm on the fence with Rick though.. he used to be a straight shooter. But since he got his wings clipped over the tea part call out... he's been more like them.

[Sarge]

I think his basic instinct still comes out to tell the truth. He might be clipped some but, he still likely speaks the truth when he gets wound up.

[Sarge]

Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs is to be on CNBC at 4:30 Eastern time. That should be very interesting on what he has to say on the real unemployment numbers.

I found it interesting that CNBC had two women on today who discussed the coming 50 percent of mortgages underwater by 2011.

I guess they can't hide the bad news coming, any longer, if they want to stay on the air.

[Sarge]

Charles B. ate their lunch. The guy in the suit H something, doing the monkey pump, was almost going berserk. Charles facial expressions were priceless.

Will see in the am. if Charles has this unemployment revision nailed in the AM. I am suspecting he might based on the 10 percent comment from BO.

If J or someone can post that video it would be appreciated. They got to talking so fast it was hard to nail every word.

[Sarge]

Thank you to zero hedge, here is the video,

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1207143802&play=1

[HOLLYWOOD]

Thank you to zero hedge, here is the video,

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1207143802&play=1 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1207143802&play=1)


Okay, I did a post a few days ago on California and the backlog (against Federal Laws) of Unemployed CA workers appealing denial of Unemployment insurance. The number of Appeals 2 weeks ago was 82,500. The amount of workers denied for one of a gazillion BS reasons by EDD is estimated about 150,000. Granted, there's undocumented/illegals in the mix... but if this is one state, that's removed, let's say 100K workers off the unemployed #'s... imagine what it must be for the entire country?

I'd say at least 350-400K.

tomorrow's national average 9.8-9.9%

Just trying to connect the missing dots into the mix.

[Sarge]

H,

Thank you for your efforts. It won't be long and we will know. The consensus number is minus 300K. With the revision going back to the first of the year it might be a shocker number.

The fact that BO was talking 10 percent yesterday, trying to soften the impact, leads me to think Charles B. might be right on numbers of at least 500K or higher. 50 states off 10K each over 7 months is not hard to picture. We know the real numbers are much higher than they are telling us each month.

[Sarge]

-247K.

It look like Charles was wrong on this one. Why would BO come out yesterday talking about 10 percent. Even CNBC snarking about GS revising their estimate down to 250K yesterday.

Guess the FED better start tightening the rates. Payback is going to be a bitch. This will shut off the mortgage refinance market fast.

[Sarge]

It looks like the bond market is starting to raise the rates for you Ben. Wake up Ben, wake up.

Too funny. Almost a point already.

[Dforkus]

The fed is in a real pickle, the weak market has been a blessing in disguise, as all of the volatility has made people see 3.5-4.5 on the 10 year note as a bargain... If people start gaining their confidence back, that money will go other places..

I've never gotten it myself, when companies like Coke, Kraft foods, and BP, and Phillip Morris offer dividends that beat a treasury, why in the hell would you buy a treasury?

[Sarge]

You just grabbed the brass ring on this merry go round.

Ben is painted into the corner for sure now. They want to pump the market with the less bad numbers and now the bond market is saying well then, the rates need to move up.

I agree, I wouldn't buy them right now myself. I am patient.

[ctiger2]

I just heard on NPR the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%. How is this possible?

[Sarge]

Just drop a few hundred thousand off the rolls and move then to another box is the net discussion. The interest rates will not lie.

[Sarge]

Ha Ha,

Someone just on CNBC from the White House saying the White House had the figures but BO didn't know them. This is getting to be a joke.

Now this AM. they are again saying the unemployment number can go to over 10 percent. BO needs to just shut up and let the numbers come out when due. Tell me GS didn't get wind when they mark it to within 3K on the number last night.

There must have got some heat that they had to come out on TV over this.

[Young Paleocon]

The only reason unemployment ticked up from 9.5% to 9.4% while we still had 250,000 job losses is because 400,000 gave up searching for work....So real unemployment still went up. In fact it is a far more dire situation than they are letting on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08jobs.html

[Sarge]

I agree.

What no one is talking about is all those college grads that are not likely to get hired anytime soon. Any guess on that number that is not showing up? There are a bunch just hanging on by a thread only because they have quite making mortgage payments.

When the next wave of defaults hits, that they can't control, it will show up with less spending.

[HOLLYWOOD]

SNAP aka FOOD STAMPS participants:

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm


----------- -------------------------- Funding Costs ----

May 2009
34,409,460 <=== Americans recipients
15,572,522
4,598,782,718 <=== Cost for the month of May 2009
133.65 <=== Avg amount per person
295.31 <=== Avg amount per family


No Data for June of July... Why?

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm

34 1/2 Million Americans on FOOD STAMPS There's a statistic that needs to be compared to the so-called government unemployment numbers.

$4.6 Billion in Food Stamps in for one month? That's an increase of over $1.8 Billion in May, YOY.

[ArchPaul]

I just heard on NPR the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%. How is this possible?

Because they are running out of unemployment. So when your benefits are up you drop off the "payroll", so you are not counted.
Its a sham.

[Sarge]

H,

Great catch. Two months data missing. You know that figure has to be much higher by now.

Take a look at this one. High priced jobs getting cut now,

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Delta-will-cut-more-apf-2401767110.html?x=0

I saw 5 defaults on commercial this am. Now they don't even give the names. Makes it harder to find out who.

[Sarge]

H,

Paul Tudor Jones is not buying this rally,

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/08/tudor-investment-corp-says-bear-market.html

[ctiger2]

Because they are running out of unemployment. So when your benefits are up you drop off the "payroll", so you are not counted.
Its a sham.

Yea, NPR talked like the drop was such a good thing and it was showing the economy bottoming out and recovery on the horizon. I'm well aware NPR is a propaganda machine and can only stand to listen to it for about 20 mins while I wake up. :D

[Jeez]

Yea, NPR talked like the drop was such a good thing and it was showing the economy bottoming out and recovery on the horizon. I'm well aware NPR is a propaganda machine and can only stand to listen to it for about 20 mins while I wake up. :D

There is recovery but we will be hovering around 9% unemployment for a while. Schiff and few people have mentioned the reason our economy is holding up is because of emerging markets.