abstrusezincate
09-26-2007, 09:10 PM
Obviously, polls have their problems, but the latest one from New Hampshire has some real problems if you start looking at the details.
If you go to CNN (http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/09/26/relnh5b.pdf), you can see the latest poll numbers from Republican Primary Voters in NH. Now, I realize it is very possible that a number of independents will vote, and that will help, but let's just analyze this a bit.
While his support is growing, the problem is that so is the opposition to his views. Over half of the identified voters were aware in this survey of who he was enough to have an opinion. Now, that opinion is very possibly based on the negative perception based by the media, but look at what this relates to in terms of the campaigning:
September, 2007
Favorable: 13%
Unfavorable: 32%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 44%
April, 2007
Favorable: 7%
Unfavorable: 14%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 67%
Those numbers are very disturbing, and are likely to be even more troubling in other states. This is purely anecdotal, but I find the message often resonates better with Democrats than Republicans, and it makes me wonder if the only way is a third party run.
A good advertising campaign can help, but I just thought this was very interesting.
If you go to CNN (http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/09/26/relnh5b.pdf), you can see the latest poll numbers from Republican Primary Voters in NH. Now, I realize it is very possible that a number of independents will vote, and that will help, but let's just analyze this a bit.
While his support is growing, the problem is that so is the opposition to his views. Over half of the identified voters were aware in this survey of who he was enough to have an opinion. Now, that opinion is very possibly based on the negative perception based by the media, but look at what this relates to in terms of the campaigning:
September, 2007
Favorable: 13%
Unfavorable: 32%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 44%
April, 2007
Favorable: 7%
Unfavorable: 14%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 67%
Those numbers are very disturbing, and are likely to be even more troubling in other states. This is purely anecdotal, but I find the message often resonates better with Democrats than Republicans, and it makes me wonder if the only way is a third party run.
A good advertising campaign can help, but I just thought this was very interesting.