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View Full Version : Looking at the CNN/WMUR NH Poll




abstrusezincate
09-26-2007, 09:10 PM
Obviously, polls have their problems, but the latest one from New Hampshire has some real problems if you start looking at the details.

If you go to CNN (http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/09/26/relnh5b.pdf), you can see the latest poll numbers from Republican Primary Voters in NH. Now, I realize it is very possible that a number of independents will vote, and that will help, but let's just analyze this a bit.

While his support is growing, the problem is that so is the opposition to his views. Over half of the identified voters were aware in this survey of who he was enough to have an opinion. Now, that opinion is very possibly based on the negative perception based by the media, but look at what this relates to in terms of the campaigning:

September, 2007
Favorable: 13%
Unfavorable: 32%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 44%

April, 2007
Favorable: 7%
Unfavorable: 14%
Neutral: 12%
Don't Know: 67%

Those numbers are very disturbing, and are likely to be even more troubling in other states. This is purely anecdotal, but I find the message often resonates better with Democrats than Republicans, and it makes me wonder if the only way is a third party run.

A good advertising campaign can help, but I just thought this was very interesting.

TheIndependent
09-26-2007, 09:43 PM
He's not going to do a 3rd Party run. He's said it dozens of times already. Not going to happen. Nice to think about, but it won't. The LP run left a very bad taste in his mouth.

He really doesn't want anything to do with it, but is considering keeping the momentum going after his run (if he doesn't win) by forming an organization of some kind.

Bro.Butch
09-27-2007, 02:19 AM
The Paul Family walk will help the campaign this weekend. Is anyone in this forum able to help them on this effort ?

The only way to win NH & IA is to campaign there !!! Hope he can put the effort there to have a chance !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:D

abstrusezincate
09-27-2007, 05:19 AM
Here's one thing to remember, though. If you were running for the nomination of the Republican Party, would you be able to say otherwise? He said he had no intention of running. But, if there's still several million in the bank after the first states (and there very well could be at this rate of fundraising), and if the support is still there, the truth is we don't know.

We'll see, but I tend to think this is less impossible than many do. That's just an opinion though. Obviously, everyone does all they can to win the GOP nod, but it does make for a hell of a platform.