aknappjr
09-25-2007, 09:00 PM
I believe the stars are aligning for a dark horse Republican candidate this year.
Intro:
The only dark horse in the race that has a chance to win the nomination is Ron Paul. As Peggy Noonan noted in the WSJ last week, “when half the room at the Republican debate erupts in applause for the anti-war candidate, something is going on.” With the GOP depressed, Ron Paul is the probably the only candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton. I say that because that is what the market is saying. I think his odds have gone from 200:1 to 15:1 to 8:1 on Sportsbook.
First; This is how Ron Paul the can actually wins:
* If 75% of the people in the US now call Iraq a mistake, that means that ½ the GOP realizes it has not gone well in some form. In their gut, most Republicans don’t like what has happened. If F-rudy Mc-Romney splits the pro war vote 4-5 ways, and Ron Paul captures the realist/unhappy/Scowcroft wing of the GOP, and the independents in open primary states, he can swing to victory. New Hampshire has been very against the war from the start and is an open primary.
* On Intrade, the betting website, the market is saying that there is only a 6% chance that Huckabee, McCain, Fred, Rudy or Mitt will drop out. This will split the GOP through the first month of primaries five ways.
Second: What is going on right now?
* Unscientific: He won the Fox news (dial-in) debate with 30% of the vote. He has won every post-debate poll. Either people like him, or he has great grass roots organization. He is the most searched for candidate on the internet; it is probably both.
* He has beaten Rudy in 18 out of 20 local straw polls.
* He has 45,000 volunteers in MeetUps. (Obama has 4,500, Hillary has 1,000, Fred has 180. Rudy has 0.) Ron Paul is on the same trajectory as Howard Dean. These numbers are increasing at 6% a week. A week. That would put him at 150,000 at the primaries, and he has yet to get mainstream media coverage.
* 60 Minutes (the people who brought you draft dodger report) have a segment on Ron Paul in the next few weeks.
* He has more money than McCain and the other (Huck, Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback).
Possible tipping points for Ron Paul:
* The first tipping point for Ron Paul was when he sparred with Rudy in May debate over why Al Queda attacked us. Ron Paul pretty much regurgitated the 911 commission report, Rudy didn’t like it. Ron Paul stood his ground. His campaign took off.
* One big endorsement will be the tipping point: A Greenspan. A Hagel. The GOP will stop laughing and embrace him. The GOP can line up behind him and say, he was right on this war. The neocons stole our party. We are Regan’s heirs. (Fact, he was one of the first Congressman to endorse RR in 76). This will allow the party to cut their losses on the bad trade.
His Record
* He has a perfect 30 year track record on lowering taxes. (Huckabee, McCain, Rudy, and Fred can’t say that.)
* His consistency on gay marriage, abortion and other values is straight line GOP/libertarian.
* He has never voted against the NRA. (Rudy can’t say it.)
* Highest approval rating from taxpayer advocates.
* The WSJ editorial page lines up with Ron Paul on every issue, but the war.
* He has never cross dressed.
by my friend BT
Intro:
The only dark horse in the race that has a chance to win the nomination is Ron Paul. As Peggy Noonan noted in the WSJ last week, “when half the room at the Republican debate erupts in applause for the anti-war candidate, something is going on.” With the GOP depressed, Ron Paul is the probably the only candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton. I say that because that is what the market is saying. I think his odds have gone from 200:1 to 15:1 to 8:1 on Sportsbook.
First; This is how Ron Paul the can actually wins:
* If 75% of the people in the US now call Iraq a mistake, that means that ½ the GOP realizes it has not gone well in some form. In their gut, most Republicans don’t like what has happened. If F-rudy Mc-Romney splits the pro war vote 4-5 ways, and Ron Paul captures the realist/unhappy/Scowcroft wing of the GOP, and the independents in open primary states, he can swing to victory. New Hampshire has been very against the war from the start and is an open primary.
* On Intrade, the betting website, the market is saying that there is only a 6% chance that Huckabee, McCain, Fred, Rudy or Mitt will drop out. This will split the GOP through the first month of primaries five ways.
Second: What is going on right now?
* Unscientific: He won the Fox news (dial-in) debate with 30% of the vote. He has won every post-debate poll. Either people like him, or he has great grass roots organization. He is the most searched for candidate on the internet; it is probably both.
* He has beaten Rudy in 18 out of 20 local straw polls.
* He has 45,000 volunteers in MeetUps. (Obama has 4,500, Hillary has 1,000, Fred has 180. Rudy has 0.) Ron Paul is on the same trajectory as Howard Dean. These numbers are increasing at 6% a week. A week. That would put him at 150,000 at the primaries, and he has yet to get mainstream media coverage.
* 60 Minutes (the people who brought you draft dodger report) have a segment on Ron Paul in the next few weeks.
* He has more money than McCain and the other (Huck, Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback).
Possible tipping points for Ron Paul:
* The first tipping point for Ron Paul was when he sparred with Rudy in May debate over why Al Queda attacked us. Ron Paul pretty much regurgitated the 911 commission report, Rudy didn’t like it. Ron Paul stood his ground. His campaign took off.
* One big endorsement will be the tipping point: A Greenspan. A Hagel. The GOP will stop laughing and embrace him. The GOP can line up behind him and say, he was right on this war. The neocons stole our party. We are Regan’s heirs. (Fact, he was one of the first Congressman to endorse RR in 76). This will allow the party to cut their losses on the bad trade.
His Record
* He has a perfect 30 year track record on lowering taxes. (Huckabee, McCain, Rudy, and Fred can’t say that.)
* His consistency on gay marriage, abortion and other values is straight line GOP/libertarian.
* He has never voted against the NRA. (Rudy can’t say it.)
* Highest approval rating from taxpayer advocates.
* The WSJ editorial page lines up with Ron Paul on every issue, but the war.
* He has never cross dressed.
by my friend BT