bobbyw24
07-03-2009, 06:07 PM
http://www.politicsinminnesota.com/2009/jul02/3407/handicapping-gop-field
Handicapping the GOP field
Posted 10:57 am, July 2nd, 2009 by Sarah Janecek
* 2010 Governor's Race
* Governor 2010
Note: This story originally appeared in the June 26, 2009 edition of The Weekly Report.
Make sure to check our Who's on First? matrix for the latest status updates on gubernatorial candidates.
The 2010 governor's race is a political junkie's dream come true. Never before have there been so many candidates with no clear favorites on both sides of the aisle. One of the great traditions of this publication is handicapping fields of candidates. We do that after talking to dozens of people and most of the candidates themselves. For now, we decided to place candidates in two categories, "top tier" and "not-so top tier" (that's a little less offensive than bottom tier!).
The major factors to be considered at this point in evaluating the candidates are money, the GOP party endorsement, general election prospects and what we're going to call "the jazz factor."
First, money. GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty raised and spent about $4 million for his 2006 reelection. The general consensus is that candidates in both parties will need somewhere between $4-8 million to win in 2010. So, it helps if a candidate has demonstrated ability to raise money or if there are indicators he or she can do that.
Second, the endorsement. On the GOP side, there are about 2,000 delegates who will be seated to endorse at the convention in June of 2010. The only time anyone can remember that a Republican who didn't win the endorsement but went on to be the party's general election candidate was Arne Carlson, who, in 1990, got in the race after the (Jon) Grunseth debacle. Many of the endorsing delegates are long-time hard core activists. Others -- about 40% -- are relative newcomers, who were first inspired to get involved by GOP prez candidate Ron Paul. The "Ron Paulites" tend to be "get government out of our lives" on both fiscal and social issues. That's a much different dynamic in GOP circles than the one -- hard core conservatism on social issues like abortion and gay marriage -- that has dominated GOP affairs the last 30 years or so.
Third, general election prospects. At this point, the speculation consensus among Republicans is that the most likely DFLer on the general election ballot will be Mark Dayton, Matt Entenza or House Speaker Margaret Kelliher (DFL-Minneapolis). Thus Republicans are looking at their candidates in terms of those potential match-ups. Interestingly, gender is not a high consideration for the Republicans (unlike the DFLers, many of whom cite gender as a top priority).
Finally, the jazz factor. Who has that extra something like charisma, leadership and/or the ability to inspire the GOP troops and perhaps ignite the voters?
We still don't think the GOP field is closed. Norm Coleman and Jim Ramstad remain possibilities, albeit remote, but both are tied up with other matters right now. And, as we've reported online in a post about Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson not getting into the race (for now), no candidate is igniting the business community. That means there's plenty of appetite for a new face in the race.
And, don't forget, the next most important date for the candidates is September 19, when the delegates will take a gubernatorial straw poll.
On to the lists...
The top tier Republicans
Pat Anderson. Former state auditor and current president of the Free Market Institute. Has raised money for and been endorsed for and won a statewide contest. Contrary to rumors, Anderson will not be self-financing a campaign. Unclear is Anderson's name ID, although an Anderson surname is always worth something in Minnesota elections.
Laura Brod. Rep. from New Prague. Completely untested on the money front. Impeccable conservative voting record for GOP delegates. Has lined up some notable name support in Pat Shortridge, former chief of staff to former U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, and Bill Walsh, long-time communications guru for Republicans, currently in the Commerce Department.
Tom Emmer. Rep. from Delano. Also untested on the money front and possesses the right voting record. Among any of the candidates, Emmer has the potential to develop a jazz factor. Sure, he's famous among insiders for his House floor rants, but if you listen closely, his common sense rantings have a Jesse Ventura-like Everyman appeal.
Geoff Michel. Sen. from Edina. Probably has set a record for fund-raising in a state Senate contest. [At several hundred thousand dollars, he's probably been beaten only by former DFL Sen. Ted Mondale, who used his surname to raise about $350,00 across the country to win his St. Louis Park/Hopkins Senate seat.] Michel is a mixed bag on social issues, and could be the most well-positioned to become a force among the Ron Paulites.
Marty Seifert. Rep. from Marshall. Has raised big money as House minority leader. Solid conservative voting record and popular among Republicans. Held a leadership position in tough Republican times. Probably working over the financial and potential delegate worlds harder than anyone else right now. Has lined up former GOP St. Cloud Rep. Jim Knoblach to manage his campaign and nailed TCF CEO Bill Cooper and Free Market Institute Prez Harold Hamilton as contributors (although whether the two will also give to other GOP candidates is unclear).
Steve Sviggum. Former Speaker of the House and current Department of Labor & Industry Commissioner. We've been surprised by how many of the other GOP candidates dismiss Sviggum's candidacy. In our view, he's in a strong position. He's raised huge amounts of money as minority leader promising a majority and he delivered that majority, which, of course, was wildly popular with the GOP endorsing crowd.
Charlie Weaver. Former Pawlenty chief of staff, Comm. of Public Safety, Rep. from Anoka and current head of the Minnesota Business Partnership. Has raised money for, been endorsed for and won a statewide contest, but he's years removed from dealing with GOP endorsing delegates.
The not-so top tier Republicans
Preface: Most of the names on this list have what we call the "legislative problem." That's shorthand for (1) untested in fundraising; (2) untested in organizing for a heated endorsement contest; (3) no clarity on general election prospects; and (4) not-yet demonstrated potential in the jazz factor department.
Caveat: The "legislative problem" could have been ascribed to Pawlenty when he first started running for governor in 1998. The assumption is that some of the not-so top tier candidates are thinking, "If that's how Pawlenty did it, I can, too." Alternatively, they may be trying to position themselves as Lt. Gov. material.
Michelle Fischbach. Sen. from Paynesville. The legislative problem.
David Hann. Sen. from Eden Prairie. The legislative problem.
Bill Hass. Former Rep. from Champlin. The legislative problem, compounded by losing a House race (but then so did Lincoln).
Mike Jungbauer. Sen. from East Bethel. The legislative problem.
Paul Koering. Sen. from Fort Ripley. The legislative problem minus the jazz factor. What's not to like about a jovial rural Republican who came out?! And who was eventually endorsed in one of the most conservative GOP territories in the state?
Paul Kohls. Rep. from Victoria. The legislative problem.
Morrie Lanning. Rep. from Moorhead. The legislative problem.
Carol Molnau. Current Lt. Gov., former Comm. of MnDOT and former Rep. from Chaska. We were surprised Molnau opened the door to a possible candidacy, and we're betting she closes it rather quickly this summer.
Handicapping the GOP field
Posted 10:57 am, July 2nd, 2009 by Sarah Janecek
* 2010 Governor's Race
* Governor 2010
Note: This story originally appeared in the June 26, 2009 edition of The Weekly Report.
Make sure to check our Who's on First? matrix for the latest status updates on gubernatorial candidates.
The 2010 governor's race is a political junkie's dream come true. Never before have there been so many candidates with no clear favorites on both sides of the aisle. One of the great traditions of this publication is handicapping fields of candidates. We do that after talking to dozens of people and most of the candidates themselves. For now, we decided to place candidates in two categories, "top tier" and "not-so top tier" (that's a little less offensive than bottom tier!).
The major factors to be considered at this point in evaluating the candidates are money, the GOP party endorsement, general election prospects and what we're going to call "the jazz factor."
First, money. GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty raised and spent about $4 million for his 2006 reelection. The general consensus is that candidates in both parties will need somewhere between $4-8 million to win in 2010. So, it helps if a candidate has demonstrated ability to raise money or if there are indicators he or she can do that.
Second, the endorsement. On the GOP side, there are about 2,000 delegates who will be seated to endorse at the convention in June of 2010. The only time anyone can remember that a Republican who didn't win the endorsement but went on to be the party's general election candidate was Arne Carlson, who, in 1990, got in the race after the (Jon) Grunseth debacle. Many of the endorsing delegates are long-time hard core activists. Others -- about 40% -- are relative newcomers, who were first inspired to get involved by GOP prez candidate Ron Paul. The "Ron Paulites" tend to be "get government out of our lives" on both fiscal and social issues. That's a much different dynamic in GOP circles than the one -- hard core conservatism on social issues like abortion and gay marriage -- that has dominated GOP affairs the last 30 years or so.
Third, general election prospects. At this point, the speculation consensus among Republicans is that the most likely DFLer on the general election ballot will be Mark Dayton, Matt Entenza or House Speaker Margaret Kelliher (DFL-Minneapolis). Thus Republicans are looking at their candidates in terms of those potential match-ups. Interestingly, gender is not a high consideration for the Republicans (unlike the DFLers, many of whom cite gender as a top priority).
Finally, the jazz factor. Who has that extra something like charisma, leadership and/or the ability to inspire the GOP troops and perhaps ignite the voters?
We still don't think the GOP field is closed. Norm Coleman and Jim Ramstad remain possibilities, albeit remote, but both are tied up with other matters right now. And, as we've reported online in a post about Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President David Olson not getting into the race (for now), no candidate is igniting the business community. That means there's plenty of appetite for a new face in the race.
And, don't forget, the next most important date for the candidates is September 19, when the delegates will take a gubernatorial straw poll.
On to the lists...
The top tier Republicans
Pat Anderson. Former state auditor and current president of the Free Market Institute. Has raised money for and been endorsed for and won a statewide contest. Contrary to rumors, Anderson will not be self-financing a campaign. Unclear is Anderson's name ID, although an Anderson surname is always worth something in Minnesota elections.
Laura Brod. Rep. from New Prague. Completely untested on the money front. Impeccable conservative voting record for GOP delegates. Has lined up some notable name support in Pat Shortridge, former chief of staff to former U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, and Bill Walsh, long-time communications guru for Republicans, currently in the Commerce Department.
Tom Emmer. Rep. from Delano. Also untested on the money front and possesses the right voting record. Among any of the candidates, Emmer has the potential to develop a jazz factor. Sure, he's famous among insiders for his House floor rants, but if you listen closely, his common sense rantings have a Jesse Ventura-like Everyman appeal.
Geoff Michel. Sen. from Edina. Probably has set a record for fund-raising in a state Senate contest. [At several hundred thousand dollars, he's probably been beaten only by former DFL Sen. Ted Mondale, who used his surname to raise about $350,00 across the country to win his St. Louis Park/Hopkins Senate seat.] Michel is a mixed bag on social issues, and could be the most well-positioned to become a force among the Ron Paulites.
Marty Seifert. Rep. from Marshall. Has raised big money as House minority leader. Solid conservative voting record and popular among Republicans. Held a leadership position in tough Republican times. Probably working over the financial and potential delegate worlds harder than anyone else right now. Has lined up former GOP St. Cloud Rep. Jim Knoblach to manage his campaign and nailed TCF CEO Bill Cooper and Free Market Institute Prez Harold Hamilton as contributors (although whether the two will also give to other GOP candidates is unclear).
Steve Sviggum. Former Speaker of the House and current Department of Labor & Industry Commissioner. We've been surprised by how many of the other GOP candidates dismiss Sviggum's candidacy. In our view, he's in a strong position. He's raised huge amounts of money as minority leader promising a majority and he delivered that majority, which, of course, was wildly popular with the GOP endorsing crowd.
Charlie Weaver. Former Pawlenty chief of staff, Comm. of Public Safety, Rep. from Anoka and current head of the Minnesota Business Partnership. Has raised money for, been endorsed for and won a statewide contest, but he's years removed from dealing with GOP endorsing delegates.
The not-so top tier Republicans
Preface: Most of the names on this list have what we call the "legislative problem." That's shorthand for (1) untested in fundraising; (2) untested in organizing for a heated endorsement contest; (3) no clarity on general election prospects; and (4) not-yet demonstrated potential in the jazz factor department.
Caveat: The "legislative problem" could have been ascribed to Pawlenty when he first started running for governor in 1998. The assumption is that some of the not-so top tier candidates are thinking, "If that's how Pawlenty did it, I can, too." Alternatively, they may be trying to position themselves as Lt. Gov. material.
Michelle Fischbach. Sen. from Paynesville. The legislative problem.
David Hann. Sen. from Eden Prairie. The legislative problem.
Bill Hass. Former Rep. from Champlin. The legislative problem, compounded by losing a House race (but then so did Lincoln).
Mike Jungbauer. Sen. from East Bethel. The legislative problem.
Paul Koering. Sen. from Fort Ripley. The legislative problem minus the jazz factor. What's not to like about a jovial rural Republican who came out?! And who was eventually endorsed in one of the most conservative GOP territories in the state?
Paul Kohls. Rep. from Victoria. The legislative problem.
Morrie Lanning. Rep. from Moorhead. The legislative problem.
Carol Molnau. Current Lt. Gov., former Comm. of MnDOT and former Rep. from Chaska. We were surprised Molnau opened the door to a possible candidacy, and we're betting she closes it rather quickly this summer.