What's a safe estimate for Q3 fundraising?

[Starks]

Any ballpark figures?

[honkywill]

probably like a gazillion.

[Cowlesy]

I can't do an estimate because it's too hard to figure out what check-donation fundraisers + mail campaign + online donations could equal up to.

Let's just hope we beat Q2 numbers---and then hope, by a lot!

[Johnnybags]

million. Hopeful 5.0, over the top giddy 6 plus.

[ronpaulitician]

Four million.

[Michael Ingram]

around 3.5 million probably, I don't think we're gonna beat mccain, still need more donations

[stevedasbach]

4 million. Anything over 4 million is good -- over 5 million is excellent.

[CoreyBowen999]

Ill say 4 million

[Cowlesy]

He raised $2.4 million in Q2 and $600k in Q1. If he gets $3.4 million in Q3, that'll be around a 30% increase from Q2, and would be HUGE!

[C4de]

Anything over last quarter's $2.4MM is good. In case you've forgotten, all of the other campaigns will most likely raise significantly less in Q3 than they did in Q2.

[winston_blade]

3 million. I would like to say more, but I am trying to be honest. I hope it is way more though.

[bygone]

I think a safe assumption would be a pleasant surprise, not that anyone should quit donating.

[Cowlesy]

Anything over last quarter's $2.4MM is good. In case you've forgotten, all of the other campaigns will most likely raise significantly less in Q3 than they did in Q2.

I completely agree. Think about it, if several "top-tier" guys don't outraise their Q2 figures, and Congressman Paul does....that'd be huuuge news.

All we need to do is hurdle Q2's $2.4 million haul, it sounds like it is definitely possible, but that we need to really kick it into gear and spread the message this week.

FILL THE @#($)*@#$ QUILL!

[Original_Intent]

Well, I know the outstanding week they had a couple of weeks ago was a bit over $500,000. Since there are 12 weeks in a quarter if htey did that every week it would be 6 million. I would put that as a high water mark, in other words I think beating that is extremely unlikely.

Did anyone determine roughly what the meetup group contest brought in?

Anyway I will guess 4.3 million, I am pretty sure we whomped on Q2. I was gonna try to kick in another $50 or $100 this next week, but we had a storm over the weekend and the roof is leaking. Afraid fixing that has got to come first. :(

[itsnobody]

Well Ron Paul said they have more donations than last quarter...so we absolutely KNOW that its MORE than $2.4 mill...probably around $4-$5 mill...

[Cowlesy]

I want to help ensure any tiny way I can this actually happens.

Thank you very much for your donation of $25.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

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Your confirmation number:
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[ctb619]

Well Ron Paul said they have more donations than last quarter...so we absolutely KNOW that its MORE than $2.4 mill...probably around $4-$5 mill...

He did? You have a link?

[itsnobody]

He did? You have a link?

Yeah....

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.infocus23sep23,0,3508039.story?coll=bal_home_ut il (Dated 9-23-2007)

"He says he has attracted more donations in the past three months than he did in the previous quarter, when he out-raised the other long shots at this week's debate."

So that means in the last 3 months alone its more than the last quarter...

[Cowlesy]

Well, considering 3 months is a quarter, let's hope for the best. :)

[ctb619]

thanks

[smtwngrl]

I'm guessing 3 million, or perhaps 3.5 million, depending on how was raised in the last couple of days and how much is raised between now and September 30.

I would love to find that it was more than that, though.


Edit: I've been crunching some numbers and guessing, and I'm changing my guess to 5 million.

[ItsTime]

we need to raise 1 million this week PERIOD

[ronpaulyourmom]

# of online donations/day in Sept = 500ish
# of online donations/day in June = 250ish

If you were to compare the donations for each month in each respective quarter, like May<>Aug and April<>July, I'm sure they would also come out around double. In fact, April is probably significantly less than half of July totals, simply because that was before the debates really brought attention to RP.

We cant really know the value of each donation given and how it compares with Q2, but as long as we know the pace to be 2x, we can roughly estimate the amount raised to be around 2x, both online and offline.

$5,000,000 raised is my guess.

[LastoftheMohicans]

4.4M raised in Q3, 1.5M spent leaving 5.3M cash on hand.

[Zydeco]

My guess was $5 mil. Anything below 4 or above 6 will surprise me.

But as someone said upthread, the key is that even if we just get 3.5 it's going to be higher than last quarter. I don't know how many other campaigns will be able to say that.

[V-rod]

50k per day on average is a safe estimation. A month ago I predicted at least 4.5 mil to be raised. I still believe it will be at least that amount.

[csen]

Assuming Ron Paul raises more than he did in Q2 (very safe assumption), and that most everyone else raised less than they did in Q2 (sounds pretty safe), it'll be interesting to see how many states we outraised Rudy/Romney in. In Q2 Ron raised $17k in New Hampshire and Rudy raised $22k...it wouldn't shock me if there were several states in Q3 where Ron is the top Republican fundraiser.

[Richie]

I feel like Christmas is coming next week. This is gonna be a long 7-8 days. I wanna recreate the joy I felt when I saw Paul Beats Mccain on the front page of Drudge. :D

[Jared Callanan]

I am going to guestimate three million which in my opinion would be a fantastic number. Anything higher than the second quarter is a victory because it shows we are continuing to improve.

[jpa]

The only safe # is $2.4 million, which is a lot of money.

[dircha]

Are there restrictions that prevent them from telling us where we're at?

If we had a definite goal in mind and knew where we stood, I'm sure we could really rally strong support to pull it off.

[Delaware]

When do the actual numbers come out?

[Bradley in DC]

Historically, the third quarter is a very difficult quarter for fundraising: the low-hanging fruit has been picked (I maxed out end of second quarter), and most other people aren't even paying attention yet. Expect most of candidates to raise less month this quarter than previously.

[Delaware]

I'd say 3.5 to 4 Million is a nice estimate, i'd say its certainly in the ballpark.

[Stinger44]

In Q2, they raised $2.4m, or approximately $26k per day.

The campaign spoke about a $100k day as being the best total so far. So, my guess is that they're averaging between $50k and $75k/day, or $4.6m to $6.9m. I think $50k/day is more likely, so I'll go with an even $5 million for the quarter.

[ForLibertyFight]

5 million

[princessredtights]

When do the actual numbers come out?

I think it's around the 15 of October?

[UCFGavin]

i'm hoping for around $4 million

[Corydoras]

I'm not optimistic.

In the "Reach Deep" thread, someone said:
http://ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=16042&page=17

"Guys -- I just received a message from Kent (probably because i'd donated a lot of loot) --- we have a LONG WAY to go this quarter to blow away expectations of the media.

If you can reach deep and chip in a little more, it'll mean a TON toward making waves when Q3 numbers are released.

Anything you can chip in by September 30th is a HUGE, HUGE help to the campaign."

[bbachtung]

I'm not optimistic.

In the "Reach Deep" thread, someone said:
http://ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=16042&page=17

"Guys -- I just received a message from Kent (probably because i'd donated a lot of loot) --- we have a LONG WAY to go this quarter to blow away expectations of the media.

If you can reach deep and chip in a little more, it'll mean a TON toward making waves when Q3 numbers are released.

Anything you can chip in by September 30th is a HUGE, HUGE help to the campaign."

You should be cautiously optimistic. The reason that the campaign sent out that message is because it is an effective means of getting us to contribute more money this quarter. It is part sales gimmick, part truth ("to blow away expectations" -- this as opposed to something a little less impressive like "exceed expectations").

Not to say that we shouldn't all contribute this week as if the world ends on October 1.

I can't wait for the results on October 15.

[Phil M]

All right, I'll be the nerd and guess $3,141,592,653.59.

Edit: Whoops, I meant $3,141,592.65.

[Karsten]

$999 BILLION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Thomas_Paine]

$3,000,000 I Hope!!!

[Chester Copperpot]

$5.5 Million

[JoshLowry]

I would be happy if he reported anything > $3 M

[EvilTwinkie]

Paul is going to blow the doors off everyone this quarter.

Here is my prediction....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBtpyeLxVkI

[surf]

i encouraged a couple new donors this quarter (i'd be surprised if they are large donors) so i'll say $5.1mm - in honor of Ichiro

[libertythor]

Cool video. Speaking of Japanimation....

Foreign permanent resident green card holders can donate. We should hit up some nationalities that tend to be fed up with the interventionist policies of the Bush Administration.

Latin Americans, Middle Easterners, Vietnamese, etc.

Of course legally residing as a permanent resident.

[mport1]

I'm not optimistic.

In the "Reach Deep" thread, someone said:
http://ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=16042&page=17

"Guys -- I just received a message from Kent (probably because i'd donated a lot of loot) --- we have a LONG WAY to go this quarter to blow away expectations of the media.

If you can reach deep and chip in a little more, it'll mean a TON toward making waves when Q3 numbers are released.

Anything you can chip in by September 30th is a HUGE, HUGE help to the campaign."

Yeah, this is worrying me.

[Slugg]

Yeah, this is worrying me.

Me too :(

[markpa]

I read an article a few weeks ago predicting Rudy would bring in 15 Mil for Q3, so even if we do good we still have a long way to go. I know we have grass roots but that doesn't compare with the millions rudy gets in free tv time from the controlled media.

[RonPaulCult]

7 MILLION. Remember you heard it here first!

[Patrick Henry]

I honestly think that we all will be pleasantly surprised. I am going to guess 5 million+.

[Joe Knows]

Any ballpark figures?

I will go out on a limb. Cash on hand will be over $10 Million.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Of course Kent Snyder is going to say that we have a long way to go. What do you expect him to say? "Hey guys, we've reached our goal for this quarter so you can stop donating for a while. Statements like this are why I get paid the big bucks!" NO! Snyder knows what he's doing and isn't an idiot. He's trying to make it seem like we're in trouble so you'll donate more. He's trying to rally the troops for one last stand. We can go down like General Custer or we can live to fight another day like Major Whittlesey. It's up to you...

[Cowlesy]

Of course Kent Snyder is going to say that we have a long way to go. What do you expect him to say? "Hey guys, we've reached our goal for this quarter so you can stop donating for a while. Statements like this are why I get paid the big bucks!" NO! Snyder knows what he's doing and isn't an idiot. He's trying to make it seem like we're in trouble so you'll donate more. He's trying to rally the troops for one last stand. We can go down like General Custer or we can live to fight another day like Major Whittlesey. It's up to you...

It's going to be a good quarter.

But we should make it doubleplusgood x 1000%!

[stevedasbach]

I think it's going to be a good quarter, with fundraising up from second quarter. However, a great quarter would really propel Ron forward.

It appears that a lot of candidates are expected to raise $4-5 million (Edwards, Richardson, McCain, and possibly Thompson). Finishing ahead of those candidates would be a lot better than finishing behind them.

While anything over $3 million is good and nothing to feel bad about, we need to do whatever we can to make this quarter really successful. (e.g. doubleplusgood x 1000%)

[ghemminger]

It good to hear a lot of level headedness in this thread....Remember....guessing high does nothing but potentially hurt the campaign....I personally think they should post donation totals daily to the website

But with the currrent format anyone guessing HIGH is showing mucho mental retardation...

[Richie]

I hope he blows Huckabee out of the water. That's all I care about.

[slantedview]

Safe estimate? twenty bucks.

[foofighter20x]

I got an email from Mr Snyder saying that we need another $1M to reach a number that will blow the media away.

He didn't say what that number was, but my guess would be $5M is the level we are trying to break. (And that's me being generous in my guess).

[wgadget]

I hope he blows Huckabee out of the water. That's all I care about.

I would guess that he already has, since Huckabee couldn't even afford to make it to Mackinac Island last Saturday.

[wgadget]

Well, I've got about 20K in cash sitting around...How much should I donate for the 3Q?

[foofighter20x]

How much have you donated already?

One single person can donate $4600 total: $2300 towards the primaries, and $2300 toward the general election.

[Stealth4]

sign up for the myspace $1M fundraiser!!! Just do what you can, take an hour a night. You can take ronpaul forum breaks. I do have faith that this is the easiest way to raise some serious cash this week, but we need more volunteers!

THe organizer gives you everything you need.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=19351