The Incumbant... our competition

[ClayTrainor]

I thought i'd make this post to get people talking about our opposition, in this race. An Obama party-line follower.

YouTube - Ben Ray Lujan on Barack Obama (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4aJrwvAZJA)

YouTube - Ben Ray Lujan speaks out for Barack Obama in Santa Fe, NM (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu1I30qO2Sg)

http://www.benrlujan.com/

[Imperial]

Is victory attainable? As in, do the electoral statistics show victory being possible?

[ClayTrainor]

Is victory attainable? As in, do the electoral statistics show victory being possible?

Where does one go to find this type of information?




Sending Adam Kokesh to Congress would be a tremendous victory for the Freedom Movement, and if we come together and stand behind him, he has a real chance to win.

This race will be difficult, but I know Adam has the energy and drive to be successful and pour every ounce of himself into this effort

Not relevant to what you're asking, i know, but still worth mentioning :)

[TurtleBurger]

Is victory attainable? As in, do the electoral statistics show victory being possible?

I think victory is always attainable, but I wouldn't bet on it in this district. It's heavily Hispanic, and then there's Santa Fe with its huge hippie demographic. The GOP candidate for the congressional seat is generally referred to as a "token candidate" by the media; the Green Party and the GOP generally fight it out for 2nd place. On the bright side, it should be relatively easy to get the GOP nomination if that's the direction Kokesh chooses to go, and that would give him some name recognition statewide.

[Imperial]

Wikipedia:


Luján faced Republican Dan East and independent Carol Miller in the general election and won with 57% of the vote compared to East's 30% and Miller's 13%

So step one is consolidating independent support. This means NO third parties or independent candidates can run and siphon off those voters.

It also has to be highly publicized. even with national money pouring in, the electoral math doesn't look good. Assuming the Republican and independent vote ALL goes to Kokesh, that would still be 57-43. If Kokesh does really well in this district, I would say he could bring it up to 52-48. That is a five point swing from our theoretical value ASSUMING independents don't get turned off by the Republican party label. I don't think a bigger swing is possible in one year.

[Chomsky]

I like this matchup on its face. I like the fact that Lujan is also a relatively young guy, so that will be less of an issue with Kokesh.

[nayjevin]

to me, the question is, will one dollar from my pocket into kokesh's advance liberty more than what I would have spent it on otherwise, and the answer is yes, at least for a good chunk of my budget. every time the guy speaks he changes minds, so i'm glad to spend a few bucks. I wanna see him in a debate - quite possibly that would bring free national exposure. worth money even if he doesn't win - look at ron paul.