How Many People Vote In The Primaries On Average?

[Chester Copperpot]

Eli made a good point in the other thread on here.

He says by Primary time the meetup groups will have 80-100k members and we're all going to show up to vote.. I would concur with that.

I would also agree that most people who answer a phone poll, being typical people are flippant and really dont care that much about the candidate.. The straw polls are an indicator of this..

Only Ron Paul people care enough to wake up early on a saturday and ruin their whole day by driving 5 hours each way to a straw poll that technically DOESNT MATTER... So you know when real voting time comes, they ARE GOING TO GO.

SO lets say we have 80,000 people in meetups come primary time... how does that fare with the actual people who go to the polls.. Do 800K people vote? and do we start off the bat with 10%??? Or do millions more vote??

Anybody know?

[PrimarilyPaul]

So you know when real voting time comes, they ARE GOING TO GO.

But only if they are registered to vote and registered as Republicans. See my signature.

[Eli]

i think i heard somewhere that the average state has 'bout 100k voters in the primaries. I'm not sure if that includes all parties, just the republicans. What about big states? I really just don't know. Any numbers from last election?

another thing to ponder is the fact that this year the republican primaries are going to have record low turn outs. Iowa's straw poll didn't even do 10% of what they were estimating from last elections numbers. Accompany that with record vote splits, only god knows where we stand.

Our only big concern is...like someone said in the scary as hell new york thread. Some of these closed states have registration deadlines coming up, once those deadlines are past we're stuck trying to convert what we're left with...very scary thought for me.

[tiznow]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm

2000 primary results

[Bradley in DC]

Some great information on this site:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P04/tally.phtml

Republican Convention 2004
Monday 30 August - Thursday 2 September 2004
2,509 total delegates - 554 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 165 party / 485 bonus
Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,736 pledged, 773 unpledged.
Need to nominate: 1,255.
Candidate Vote Delegate Votes
Hard Total Floor Vote
Bush, George W. 7,853,863 98.1% 1,733 69.1% 2,508 100.0%
Uncommitted 91,926 1.1% 776 30.9%
(others) 62,281 0.8%
(not voting) 1 0.0%
Total 8,008,070 100.0% 2,509 100.0% 2,509 100.0%


However since the 2004 Republican race was uncontested, it's probably good to look at 2000 results and extrapolate from there based on demographic changes.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P04/tally.phtml

Republican Convention 2000
Popular Vote Floor Vote Hard Total
Bush, George 12,089,564 62% 2,058. 100% 1,601. 77%
McCain, John 6,070,050 31% 1. 0% 243. 12%
Uncommitted 60,598 0% 205. 10%
Keyes, Alan 995,555 5% 6. 0% 14. 1%
Bauer, Gary 68,279 0% 1. 0%
Forbes, Stev 200,402 1% 2. 0%
others 18,083 0%
Hatch, Orrin 17,008 0%
abstention 1. 0%
---------- ---- ------- ---- ------- ----
TOTAL 19,519,539 100% 2,066. 100% 2,066. 100%

[J Free]

In 2000, there were 3 million who voted in CA. So assume 25-30 million nationwide. Less than half of that will be Republican party. But still

Meetups are nothing. Holding signs is useless. We have got to talk to people one-on-one. And as we get skills/experience under our belt -- larger groups. Start local. Work your way out.

The elephant can be eaten. One bite at a time.

[UCFGavin]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm

2000 primary results

keyes was the runner up in a lot of those...what the shit?

[Eli]

so it looks like on avg from last election 160k republicans per state.

Account for at least a 25% drop judging from last years turnout.

So between 110k-130k per state.


30% of that to win is actually a very reasonable conversion rate if all the meetup groups in the state (and neighboring states who aren't in their own primaries) unite and kick major ass.

[bighairycaveman]

If I'm not mistaken, when I was watching the commentary after the value voters debate, I think I heard that approximately 7% of the population actually votes in the primary. So, now the question is how many eligible voters are there in this country? If there are 300 million citizens...and lets estimate that 180 million are registered to vote, then 180(.07)=12.6million voters?

[csen]

Looks like 20 million Republicans voted in the primary in 2000. However, Republicans were really motivated in 2000 to take back the White House. As we've seen this year, Republican interest in their candidates is abysmal. I think 15mln this time around would be a high turnout, and 10mln wouldn't shock me. 30% will probably do it as a candidate. So we're looking for 3-4mln Republican voters for RP -- not bad when you figure that's barely 1% of the national population.

[PrimarilyPaul]

In 2000, there were 3 million who voted in CA. So assume 25-30 million nationwide. Less than half of that will be Republican party. But still

Meetups are nothing. Holding signs is useless. We have got to talk to people one-on-one. And as we get skills/experience under our belt -- larger groups. Start local. Work your way out.

At the bottom they give totals. In 2000, 20 million voted in the Republican primary and 36 million voted in all primaries.

[ross11988]

for pennsylvania it says closed primary what does that mean?

[vanadium]

keyes was the runner up in a lot of those...what the shit?

As my wife told me while she peered over at him while I watched the Values Voter debate on my laptop:

"He wasn't so crazy back then."

[Bradley in DC]

so it looks like on avg from last election 160k republicans per state.

Account for at least a 25% drop judging from last years turnout.

So between 110k-130k per state.


30% of that to win is actually a very reasonable conversion rate if all the meetup groups in the state (and neighboring states who aren't in their own primaries) unite and kick major ass.

I think you have that backwards--there was a drop from nearly 20 million Republican primary voters in 2000 to just over 8 million in 2004 because it was not a contested presidential primary (in any serious way). I think we should plan on 22-24 million Republican primary voters this time. The links on The Green Papers site give state by state breakdowns.

[csen]

Also remember that if you're a Republican who doesn't really like any of the candidates but doesn't want Hillary to win, you might just say, "screw it, I'll turn out for the general election but I'm not gonna go vote for that no good, pro-gun control, pro-choice Rudy." Obviously, we won't have that issue...

[csen]

I think you have that backwards--there was a drop from nearly 20 million Republican primary voters in 2000 to just over 8 million in 2004 because it was not a contested presidential primary (in any serious way). I think we should plan on 22-24 million Republican primary voters this time. The links on The Green Papers site give state by state breakdowns.

You think that after 8 years of the Bush administration and their hapless field of contenders that there will be an uptick in Republicans turning out for the primary? Maybe you're trying to be conservative but I think it'll be waaay lower than that. I'll take the under on 16mln.

[Eli]

for pennsylvania it says closed primary what does that mean?
means you actually have to register as a republican in order to vote for him in the primaries. if your from pa please do that!

just through low voter turnout for these primaries the amazing thing is, even if 4% is his actual reflection of the voting population, that right there could get him into the top of the running..hahahha maybe Lets still shoot for that 10% by primaries

[Bradley in DC]

As my wife told me while she peered over at him while I watched the Values Voter debate on my laptop:

"He wasn't so crazy back then."

No, pre-9/11 or whatever it was, Keyes was pretty cool actually. He and Forbes (for very different reasons) were clearly the two most Ron Paul-like candidates that year.

Getting TROUNCED by Obama, a complete lightweight, as got to hurt.

[PrimarilyPaul]

for pennsylvania it says closed primary what does that mean?

You have to register as a Republican so Ron Paul can win the primary. It also means that now that you know this information you must tell all your friends to register as Republicans as well.

[ross11988]

means you actually have to register as a republican in order to vote for him in the primaries. if your from pa please do that!

just through low voter turnout for these primaries the amazing thing is, even if 4% is his actual reflection of the voting population, that right there could get him into the top of the running..hahahha maybe Lets still shoot for that 10% by primaries


ok just because its highlighted in yellow and theres others that are highlighted by it says open primary.

[Bradley in DC]

for pennsylvania it says closed primary what does that mean?

Good glossary here, for future reference, down the left-hand column.

http://www.republicansource.com/primaries.htm

[PrimarilyPaul]

Here's the 2004 results on page 41:

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.pdf

Democrats had 15 million vote, Bush ran unopposed so no need to look at the Republicans. We should expect 15-20 million people.

[Paulitician]

In 2000 there were a total of 36,117,978 primary votes cast. In 2004 there were 24,227,443. In 2000, the number of Republicans were 20,717,198. In 2004, it went down to 7,940,331.

What should we expect this time around? Further decrease overall, or increase for reasons unbeknownst to me?

[J Free]

Assume an INCREASE from 2000. It is a truly competitive race with the possibility of a brokered convention.

And aiming higher than might be needed is precisely what wins elections.

Aim low - say byebye.

[Bradley in DC]

You think that after 8 years of the Bush administration and their hapless field of contenders that there will be an uptick in Republicans turning out for the primary? Maybe you're trying to be conservative but I think it'll be waaay lower than that. I'll take the under on 16mln.

I'm factoring in population growth, etc., extrapolating from previous years, yes. Also, in the previous races, turnout was depressed in states that voted later in the process after the nominee was effectively chosen (Forbes dropped out when? late February? before half of the states had voted). This time, with the accelerated and condensed primary calendar, there will be a different dynamic.

So yes, for those reasons, I stand by my otherwise completely unsubstantiated, no one can predict the future, I believe in a all-powerful God so anything is possible, reserving the right to throw in any other caveats at a future date, absolutely guarranteed prediction. :)

[csen]

The goal is to get as many people as possible to vote for Ron Paul in the primary. Overestimating or underestimating Republican turnout won't affect that. That being said, once again, I think people really underestimate how much damage has been done to the Republican party over the past 8 years. For what it's worth, I think turnout might end up being a record low for the Republicans this year for a non-incumbent candidate, and think that telling people turnout will be really low is actually an incentive to vote (my vote counts for more! we can do this!) than it is a turnoff.

I'll bet someone a plane ticket to the inauguration that Repub turnout is under 16mln.

[csen]

I'm factoring in population growth, etc., extrapolating from previous years, yes. Also, in the previous races, turnout was depressed in states that voted later in the process after the nominee was effectively chosen (Forbes dropped out when? late February? before half of the states had voted). This time, with the accelerated and condensed primary calendar, there will be a different dynamic.

So yes, for those reasons, I stand by my otherwise completely unsubstantiated, no one can predict the future, I believe in a all-powerful God so anything is possible, reserving the right to throw in any other caveats at a future date, absolutely guarranteed prediction. :)

Okay, I hadn't thought about the compressed calendar -- that's clearly a new dynamic. And the race is more wide open, I'd agree. But I think we're still crazy if we don't extrapolate straw poll turnout so far plus fundraising and what that means for Republican turnout in January.

[J Free]

>I think people really underestimate how much damage has been done to the Republican party

That damage manifests in the number of people who are registered Republican -- not the number of Reps who turn out to vote. If your state has more registered Reps now than in 2000, assume higher turnout too.

[Bradley in DC]

Okay, I hadn't thought about the compressed calendar -- that's clearly a new dynamic. And the race is more wide open, I'd agree. But I think we're still crazy if we don't extrapolate straw poll turnout so far plus fundraising and what that means for Republican turnout in January.

Extrapolating straw poll data, hmmm, hadn't considered that. :o Do you have election-by-election numbers? Also, how does one factor in depressed vote buying by no-shows. I think an argument is being made that in the age of internet, highly sophisticated direct mail, etc., that there is less reason to spend money paying off local parties by buying votes in beauty contests.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Anybody know?

Put it this way: if twice as many people show up at caucuses and primaries this year than in past, it looks good for our man. If there are blizzards -- and I do have a request in to my Weather Manipulation Bureau friend -- it's good for Ron Paul.

[Newbies: go register to vote, or to vote GOP, or whatever your state requires, tonight. Sit, if you must, in a line outside your city office until they open. No, that won't score you great tix, but you will get registered to vote. Or, you could just go in the morning. But is that nearly as much fun?]

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Okay, I hadn't thought about the compressed calendar -- that's clearly a new dynamic. And the race is more wide open, I'd agree. But I think we're still crazy if we don't extrapolate straw poll turnout so far plus fundraising and what that means for Republican turnout in January.

I crunched this. One half the states are holding primaries or caucuses on or before Feb 5, those states electing almost exactly half the delegates to the Republican National Convention.

Shotgun start means there may be no -- hopefully won't be a -- frontrunner before half the delegates are, in some manner, chosen.

Qualification: many of these states do not bind their delegates, and many elect the delegates further down the road via conventions, so there could be a critical mass achieved at some point late Feb.

If I had my druthers, I'd keep things as stirred up as possible among the pro-war candidates, leaving a sweet spot through which Ron Paul can rise with even a minority of delegates.

We're talking a 5-ballot convention here, folks. Sweet.

[barcop]

I just finished watching Freedom to Fascism...

and if as the movie states the electronic polls are rigged...

how do we win in the primaries even if our voters out number everyone elses 50 to 1?

How do we ensure a true vote?

[Paul4Prez]

I think Ron Paul needs to win during the primaries. The neocon candidates' delegates will never endorse a non-neocon in a brokered convention.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), a lot of states are winner-take-all, or winner-take-all by district, so Ron Paul could get a majority of the delegates even if he only gets 25-30 percent of the actual vote, assuming the field stays large.

Also, be advised that many states have moved up their primaries to January or early February, and the deadline for registering is usually weeks earlier. If you are changing parties, the deadline is rapidly approaching in some states -- October 12th in New York....

[RonPaulStreetTeam]

But only if they are registered to vote and registered as Republicans. See my signature.

awesome link in sig!

I will be putting it on my website as soon as I get home tomorrow! (at girlfriends now)

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

I think Ron Paul needs to win during the primaries. The neocon candidates' delegates will never endorse a non-neocon in a brokered convention.

Fortunately (or unfortunately), a lot of states are winner-take-all, or winner-take-all by district, so Ron Paul could get a majority of the delegates even if he only gets 25-30 percent of the actual vote, assuming the field stays large.

Also, be advised that many states have moved up their primaries to January or early February, and the deadline for registering is usually weeks earlier. If you are changing parties, the deadline is rapidly approaching in some states -- October 12th in New York....

It's even more complicated than that. States are incredibly varied in how they allocate delates. Most do allocate three per congressional district, so if you can gang up on one or two Congressional districts in your state, you can win those delegates. Then more are allocated At-Large, or by the vote of the entire state.

California is somewhat unique in its winner-take-all, though just from my look at the early states -- not in front of me now -- maybe a fifth of them do that.

A surprising number still hold caucuses and later conventions to elect delegates, as MN does.

[jpa]

I think you have that backwards--there was a drop from nearly 20 million Republican primary voters in 2000 to just over 8 million in 2004 because it was not a contested presidential primary (in any serious way). I think we should plan on 22-24 million Republican primary voters this time. The links on The Green Papers site give state by state breakdowns.

I've heard the voting bloc of the republican party has shrunk by 5% since 2004 (as measured by the 2006 elections). any truth to that?

[jpa]

It's even more complicated than that. States are incredibly varied in how they allocate delates. Most do allocate three per congressional district, so if you can gang up on one or two Congressional districts in your state, you can win those delegates. Then more are allocated At-Large, or by the vote of the entire state.

California is somewhat unique in its winner-take-all, though just from my look at the early states -- not in front of me now -- maybe a fifth of them do that.

A surprising number still hold caucuses and later conventions to elect delegates, as MN does.

I should pull my data back up in the morning. RP can win blocks of delegates, but don't know that we want to discuss it here.

California is NOT winner take all. Only 2 or 3 of the 51 delegates goto the state winner. RP can pick up more delegates in CA counties than like 5 midwest states combined.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

...

[Bradley in DC]

I've heard the voting bloc of the republican party has shrunk by 5% since 2004 (as measured by the 2006 elections). any truth to that?

I'm not sure exactly what you're measuring. Voter turnout is generally lower in off-(presidential) year elections.

[vanadium]

I should pull my data back up in the morning. RP can win blocks of delegates, but don't know that we want to discuss it here.

You probably want to keep that on the downlow, but it's worth strategizing.

[scrosnoe]

Let's just go for 50.1% popular vote in the Republican Primary across the board and take all the delegate slots up and down the ladder and nominate our man at the National Republican Convention on the first ballot.

From that point on the Republicans will never forget their true constitutional base and we will multiply across the land restoring all those who left the party frustrated during the Bush regime. In the general election we will join forces with principled constitutional antiwar Democrats and elect Ron Paul President easily over whoever the other democrats nominate.

Limited, constitutional government will be restored. Peace will return to the land and everyone will live happily ever after!

THE END (no just the beginning . . .)

[MicroBalrog]

I have heard that the amount of Registered republican has fallen.

As a matter of fact, I heard Ron Paul said that.

Anybody know the truth of this?

[csen]

I have heard that the amount of Registered republican has fallen.

As a matter of fact, I heard Ron Paul said that.

Anybody know the truth of this?

I am sure that's the case just through death and lack of young people registering Republican. Not sure where those stats are though.

[Elwar]

If we assume that there will be 20,000,000 Republican primary voters and Ron Paul splits the percentage evenly with the four other frontrunners, he'll need 4,000,000 votes to take the whole country (factor in, the second tier candidates taking enough so he only needs 20%).
Now factor in that he only needs 51% of the country to win, make that 2,000,000 votes to win.

If we have 100,000 meetup members by primary time, each meetup member will need to deliver 20 people to the polls to vote for Ron Paul.

Personally making sure that 20 people make it to the primary election to vote for Ron Paul (and vote for precinct captain) should be a goal of all meetup members.

[stevedasbach]

Primary turnout is typically 10-20% of registered voters. My guess is that Paul voters will turn out at MUCH higher rates.