Using confirmation numbers to figure out number of donors -- think I figured it out

[csen]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.

[krott5333]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.


thats only online donations :D

[rodent]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.


RP has said the average online donation is $25 to $50, $50 might be a more conservative, sane estimate.

It's tough for us non big business people to match special interest donations!

[mkrfctr]

Been a long time since I learned this, but I'm pretty sure when you and he say average, you and he are actually referring to the *median* donation. Meaning the greatest number of individual donations (not the same as total $dollar donations per person) are between $25-50. [technically that's not median either, more what's it called, um well under the center of the bell curve anyway...] But if you also included the $2300, the $1000, the $500 donations, etc, your *average* dollar amount per donation (total $dollars divided by total #donations) could be a lot higher (or lower if there is a lot of $5 or $10 donations). Really there is no way to know the distribution of $dollar amounts per day or the total $ raised. Gonna have to wait for official numbers...

[davidhperry]

thats only online donations

Does anyone know about what the ratio of online vs. offline donations would be?

[C4de]

Been a long time since I learned this, but I'm pretty sure when you and he say average, you and he are actually referring to the *median* donation. Meaning the greatest number of individual donations (not the same as total donations per person) are between $25-50. But if you also included the $2300, the $1000, the $500 donations, etc, your *average* dollar amount per donation (total $dollars divided by #donations) could be a lot higher (or lower if there is a lot of $5 or $10 donations). So that 400 per day could be 400 x $25 median = $10k, 400 x $50 = $20k or 400 x $200 average = $80k. Really there is no way to know the distribution or the total $ raised.

Indeed. I would say a safer estimate would be to compare the number of donations per month in Q2 and compare them with numbers thus far in Q3 to make a more accurate projection.

For example, if RP raised $1.8 million in Q2 online (out of $2.4 million total in Q2) across 10,000 online donations, then it's $180 per donation on average.

[reduen]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.


Interresting quote here.... I wonder if this would also include the Meetup fundraiser thing???

[ronpaulyourmom]

csen, have you examined the amount of your donations and their effect on the 2nd part of each transaction number? Like maybe the 2nd part of the transaction code increases by a set amount depending on the size of your donation. I think I may have noticed this happening with my own donations, but I've done too few to investigate it further.

If your not shy about posting the amounts of each donation you made, I wouldn't mind taking a look myself.

Edit: I guess if I really cared I could just dig up all the posted transactions and look there too, heh stupid me.

[Noog]

I hope that last number isn't the total... $920,104.64

Or maybe you have to add zeros? $92,010,464.00 ;)

[Joe Knows]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.

Why don't we all just donate some money right now and see what kind of information we get back from the campaign? Just donate some money and report back here! :) :)

[reduen]

What we need here now is two consecutive donations of $25 or more and I think that I have it figured out... Again, we need two consecutive conformation numbers. Can anybody do this?

My thoughts right now are :

Number of Q3 donations - Number of Total Donations.

or

Number of Q3 donations - Total Amount Donated

[Corydoras]

Methinks not a good idea to waste the campaign's time and money processing one superfluous donation when all the figures will be out soon enough.

We really do know the answer to the real question: We don't have as much money as Hillary or Obama and that kind of money is what we need to aim for.

[reduen]

Methinks not a good idea to waste the campaign's time and money processing one superfluous donation when all the figures will be out soon enough.

We really do know the answer to the real question: We don't have as much money as Hillary or Obama and that kind of money is what we need to aim for.

I do not understand your comment. How can it be a waste of anybodys time if you are donating money to the campaign?...
:rolleyes:

[Corydoras]

I do not understand your comment. How can it be a waste of anybodys time if you are donating money to the campaign?...
:rolleyes:

Because this hypothetical donor is donating $50 to the campaign.
If s/he donates it all at once, it is a net of $50 minus one set of processing costs, which include time spent processing.
If s/he donates it in two batches, it is a net of $50 minus two sets of processing costs, again including time spent processing.
Sure, it's a net gain to the campaign, but it is not an efficient use of the $50.

Please don't underestimate how much time has to be spent processing and tracking and reporting each donation for the FEC.

[reduen]

Because this hypothetical donor is donating $50 to the campaign.
If s/he donates it all at once, it is a net of $50 minus one set of processing costs, which include time spent processing.
If s/he donates it in two batches, it is a net of $50 minus two sets of processing costs, again including time spent processing.
Sure, it's a net gain to the campaign, but it is not an efficient use of the $50.

Please don't underestimate how much time has to be spent processing and tracking and reporting each donation for the FEC.

Well if this hypothetical donor was not going to donate anything or anything more, it would still be a plus... :)

If you do not want to participate, that is fine. I will not make you. The person who started this thread just got us curious..

[ronpaulyourmom]

Because this hypothetical donor is donating $50 to the campaign.
If s/he donates it all at once, it is a net of $50 minus one set of processing costs, which include time spent processing.
If s/he donates it in two batches, it is a net of $50 minus two sets of processing costs, again including time spent processing.
Sure, it's a net gain to the campaign, but it is not an efficient use of the $50.

Please don't underestimate how much time has to be spent processing and tracking and reporting each donation for the FEC.

Aren't processing costs are typically done on a percentage basis, not a per-transaction basis?

[cjhowe]

Aren't processing costs are typically done on a percentage basis, not a per-transaction basis?

Both. Base transaction fee, then percentage.

[reduen]

Ok, if I remember correctly it depends on the processor but the one that I used charged me so much a month depending on how many estimated transactions I put on my application. Anything over the amount of transactions I estimated was a certain amount per transaction... ;)

[RP4ME]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.

u smartie pants

[JPFromTally]

Do you think Huckabee's, Tancredo's or Giuliani's people care enough about their candidate to do this kind of stuff?

[Veritas Vos Liberabit]

I've been a lurker for a while, but I've been active! Passed out flyers and put up signs and such. I even wrote 50 letters to Iowans. Anyways, I figure what better first post then a donation conformation? Here ya go, 2 (what I believe to be) consecutive $25 donations:

Thank you very much for your donation of $25.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

Thanks for being a part of the campaign!

Your confirmation number:
T30154-92015418

Thank you very much for your donation of $25.00 to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

Thanks for being a part of the campaign!

Your confirmation number:
T30155-92015420

I filled out the donation form in 2 seperate tabs and submitted them both as close together as I could. Any ideas?

[AlexAmore]

On the bright side, we know we have the most active grassroots effort. Many people have spent tons of money for their own efforts, instead of giving to the campaign.

So I would say the grassroots effort is worth a pretty penny if you tried to value it in straight up cash. Anyone wanna try and figure THAT out!? lol

[mkrfctr]

Re: Veritas Vos Liberabit
I think it's well established that the T<number> is the number of online donations. The next bit, considering it incremented more than one, and it sounds like you activated it very close together and yet they still were off by more than one, yet not a huge amount more... I'm going to put my guess on that that is a number generated by their credit card processor or similar service.

So T<number> = Ron Paul specific online donation and -<number> = a unique ID to be used with their processor.

This would make sense from a logistical point of view of being able to follow the trail of your transaction.

[Michael Ingram]

there should be a running count trying to tell how much money has been raised online

[mconder]

Good to know we have our trusty decoder ring when we need one.

[reduen]

Re: Veritas Vos Liberabit
I think it's well established that the T<number> is the number of online donations. The next bit, considering it incremented more than one, and it sounds like you activated it very close together and yet they still were off by more than one, yet not a huge amount more... I'm going to put my guess on that that is a number generated by their credit card processor or similar service.

So T<number> = Ron Paul specific online donation and -<number> = a unique ID to be used with their processor.

This would make sense from a logistical point of view of being able to follow the trail of your transaction.


I place my bets with this explanation....

[ronpaulyourmom]

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.

We seem to have established that the 2nd item in the confirmation code doesn't really tell us much, but when we look at your daily analysis, we can still get a pretty good idea.

Between 6/18-6/25 online donations tallied up to 175 donations per day. We can assume that this number is quite a bit higher than the donations that occured say in April, prior to the debates, and prior to the Rudy G. faceoff. But we should also consider that upon entry into the race RP was able to dust up a few hundred thousand from his core contacts. Based on these basic ideas, an assumption of 150 donations per day average over the course of Q2 is not unreasonable. If somebody is able to offer up a donation code that goes back even further than 6/18, it would tell us even more.

With that in mind, lets assume the following:
1. Q2 daily totals = 150/day average
2. Correlation of online fundraising to offline fundraising is about the same.
3. Amount of each online donation is about the same
4. Q3 daily totals = 300/day average

It doesn't take a genius to figure out where you go from here. Take the Q2 number and double it, and you get pretty close to where RP will be at the end of the Quarter.

$5,000,000 - $7,000,000 raised for Q3, not just online, but total.

[Stealth4]

I'd say its going to be below 5 mil, but above last qtr.

At 600 donations per day (assume online = offline) , to get
5 mill you'd need an average donation of $90.
7 mill you'd need an average donation of $125.

Based on what I've heard (Texas Straw Poll speech) the average donation is less than $90.

[Elwar]

I would not be surprised if the second number is not indeed the total amount of dollars raised online.

Look at the first and final numbers:

T3546-78333339 783333.39/3546 = average of $220 per donation
T30051-92010464 920104.64/30051 = average of $30 per donation

Early on he probably had a lot of high dollar donations, then with the various donation campaigns people started donating $25 each, or lower.

$920,104 so far...definitely needs more by the end of the month.

[Stealth4]

I dont think the last number is the amount. I found to numbers that were sequenctial (TXXXX and TXXXX+1) and the difference between the last set of numbers was not equal to the donation amount.

[transistor]

I think the last number is a clock

[john_anderson_ii]

I think the last number is a clock

If it is, I can't figure out its format. It's not an epoch time stamp or anything.

I work for an online credit card processing company, so I maintain applications that interface with credit card processing networks like Vital/Visa/MC etc.

That last number, I'm pretty sure is a authorization code. When the processor "charges" your card, it actually does an "auth" (or a pre-auth if you are in a restaurant). The charges don't actually get settled until all the authorizations are reconciled with the issuer of the card. The number you get, usually on your receipt is the authorization code of the transaction.

Obviously I don't know the format of every processor's authorization code scheme, but most of them are sequential like this.

[Original_Intent]

Like many of you I'm sure, I've given money on several occasions, and each time I've gotten a confirmation number. Check this out:

T3546-78333339 (6/18)
T4768-79324810 (6/25)
T6555-79923223 (6/29)
T17117-86305905 (8/11)
T20152-87590499 (8/20)
T23643-89793773 (9/4)
T30051-92010464 (9/19)

Additionally, here's a confirmation number from ~30 minutes before my most recent one (the 1787 thread):

T30011-92007870

It looks to me like the digits after T (but before the dash) is a donation counter. If this is true, then we can figure out the average number of donations per day between my gifts.

6/18-6/25: 175/day
6/25-6/29: 447/day (end of quarter, makes sense)
6/29-8/11: 246/day
8/11-8/20: 337/day (RP's birthday)
8/20-9/4: 233/day
9/4-9/19: 427/day (looking good for a 2-week stretch)

Also, the 1787 challenge started on Monday afternoon, giving us 4 1/2 days to meet the 1787 goal. 1787 / 4.5 = 397/day, which makes sense given these numbers.

If this is the case, then there have been 23,500 online donations so far this quarter. If the average donation has been $100 (no idea if this is high or low), that'd be $2.35mln raised online so far for Q3.

Well, one thing seems clear (if your interpretation of the numbers is right, and it appears to be) then as of 6/29 there had been 6555 donations and as of 9/19 there had been 30,000+ online donations. So three to four times as many online donations since 6/29 than prior to and including 6/29. Nice.

[Proemio]

On the bright side, we know we have the most active grassroots effort. Many people have spent tons of money for their own efforts, instead of giving to the campaign.

So I would say the grassroots effort is worth a pretty penny if you tried to value it in straight up cash. Anyone wanna try and figure THAT out!? lol

Here you go. Very scientific, with a tiny +- a few million margin of error -

40,000 activists (conservative est. based on 40,000 meet-up members)
x
2 hours a week (very conservative)
x
$20/hour average value (wild guess and surely low*)
=
$1,600,000 per week (not including 'pocket money' for printing fliers, signs, ads, etc.)
=
$20.8 million per quarter*

*Add ideas the suits could never come up with through think-tanking and focus-grouping, an energy that reverberates around the globe, and a message that is priceless, you end up with a spread sheet melt down.

So, who knows. It will only have been enough once Dr. Paul becomes President Paul.
Until then it's head down and going - and giving - for it.

[Ozwest]

Jesus! Forget about calculating the number of donors and use your evil powers to direct debit the Bank of England.

[reduen]

Jesus! Forget about calculating the number of donors and use your evil powers to direct debit the Bank of England.


Why?

[john_anderson_ii]

Jesus! Forget about calculating the number of donors and use your evil powers to direct debit the Bank of England.

The number 1 reason I'm not doing that is because I know how the system works, and it will be 100% impossible to get away with it. :D I could do it and escape the criminal prosecution part. A legitimate processor can always shrug and say, "Software error, sorry" when they get caught. However, the charge back fees would be enormously expensive, and my employer would probably fire me and use my salary to pay them.

[Ozwest]

Why? Because objects in the mirror are dumber than they appear. hehe

[Ozwest]

john_anderson_ii... Quit your job, charge the back fees to me, and I'll split the profits with you in a third world country of your choice. Somewhere Sunny with tanned women.

[mkrfctr]

Ran the numbers quick; If it's a clock then it's not tracked to seconds at least; it ends up being about 1.71 average to the second, but the spread is rather close, 0.19 for that same number. I'm too starving to think right enough to calculate if the numbers are within range for the day long period (since we dont exact time of donation), if they are not then we know the number is not time related.