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tangent4ronpaul
04-25-2009, 03:25 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

Mexico flu: Your experiences

Readers in Mexico have been emailing the BBC describing the sense of fear gripping the country as a result of a flu virus outbreak, which has so far claimed up to 60 lives.

The World Health Organization says the virus has the potential to become a pandemic.

Read a selection of BBC readers' comments below.

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

The situation in Mexico City is really not normal. There is a sense of uncertainty that borders on paranoid behaviour in some cases. At this very moment, Mexican TV is showing how military forces are giving masks to the people in the streets. Moreover the news is sending alarming messages for the audience. Really, the atmosphere in the city is unsettling, a good example: pubs and concerts are being closed or cancelled and people don't haven thorough information. In this city (and country) there is an urgent need for assertive information, no paranoid messages from the government or the Mexican media.
Patricio Barrientos and Aranzazu Nuñez, Mexico City

Massive events have been cancelled at the National Auditorium - Mexico City's largest indoor venue with capacity of 10,000 - which has been closed. Two soccer games have been cancelled at the Olympic Stadium. A sold out game with 70,000 expected attendance will be played behind closed doors. Another game at the famous Azteca Stadium that would draw an attendance of 50,000 will also be played behind closed doors.
Juan Carlos Leon Calderon, Mexico City

It's eerily quiet here in the capital. Lots of people with masks, Facebook communities exchanging gallows humour, everybody waiting to see if schools and universities will stay closed for ten days (as goes the rumour). All masks have been used up, and we are waiting for new supplies.
Dr Duncan Wood, Mexico City

Yesterday in my office it was a bit surreal walking in to see all in blue masks with deep cleansing of computer equipment and surfaces going on. Let's hope it is contained and does not escalate. The local news is reporting 200 fatalities and reports of flu spreading from areas outside of Mexico City. Given the volume of daily commuter traffic on cramped busses and trains, this may not have to be too virulent to be disastrous in human terms. I wonder what controls there will be on flights in and out.
Will Shea, Mexico City

I work for the government as a head of a computer infrastructure operations department. At work we are doing several actions to try not to expose workers. We sent several home. I support the Pumas football team and the very important match with the Guadalajara team will be played behind closed doors. My family and I are going to stay home all weekend. We feel a little scared and confused with the feeling that we are not given being told the truth. Many people think the numbers of dead people is higher than we are being told.
Marcos, Mexico City

The whole city is affected, I have a very bad feeling about this. Two of my friends at work are sick, they were sick for a couple of days, they went to the hospital and they sent them back to work. The doctor told them it was just a flu until Friday when the alarm was spread, then they were allowed to go home. I work in a call centre and I'm worried because there are no windows in the building so it cannot be ventilated and around 400 people work there.

We all have talked to our supervisor but no one has done anything not even sterilise or disinfect the area. We will be sick soon and, well, do the math - 400 can infect at least another two per day. The authorities say there's nothing they can do since it's a private company and I can assure you, the company I work for is not the only one like this in the whole city. Us workers don't have much protection from our government and if we want to keep our jobs we have to go anyway.
Adriana, Mexico City

My sister got influenza like symptoms two weeks ago. She is fine now, thank god, but similar cases have been showing up since two weeks ago. I work for a bank and we were told to take our laptops because there is a high possibility to work from home. I have gone out to buy some face masks.
Ruben Farfan, Mexico City

I'm a college student in Mexico City, and I can only say that the information that the media has provided doesn't seem to be enough, we do not now how serious it is because they have failed to mention it. There have been two ways of responding to this event, the ones that have entered themselves into quarantine claiming that the government is hiding something much more serious, and those who take this as a joke saying that everyone is overreacting. To put a cherry on top all kind of crazy rumours are flying around - that they are going to quarantine Mexico City, that a school and some specific branches of offices and jobs are going to be suspended for days to come, and so on. I wish more info was available, for example how to prevent it? Have there been many deaths? Is there a threat of an epidemic?
Mari A, Mexico City

I didn't hear about the flu epidemic until last night at 2330. Yesterday the streets were almost empty compared to a normal Friday afternoon. The media is bombarding the same information over and over again, but the authorities haven't said anything new yet, only that they have enough vaccines for those with the flu and that we should avoid public spaces.
Paulina, Mexico City

This is another blow to the tourism industry in Mexico, even though non of the events that is taken place is anywhere near the tourist areas of Cancun, Playa del Carmen or Puerto Vallarta, the news comes across as all of Mexico is affected! After wrong reports of drug related violence, military presence etc. in Cancun, which hurt the industry tremendously, now people think that all of Mexico is affected by a virus that is mostly present in the capital. I guess the problem is that this is a country where the capital carries the same name as the country, thus when people hear news about Mexico, albeit it refers to Mexico City, they assume it is affecting the whole country.
Rainer, Cancun

Ninja Homer
04-25-2009, 03:45 PM
I have a feeling it's going to be a busy week for border patrol.

torchbearer
04-25-2009, 04:20 PM
60 dead?
I would have thought there were 60,000 dead with all the hype.

tangent4ronpaul
04-25-2009, 04:55 PM
60 dead?
I would have thought there were 60,000 dead with all the hype.

Wait a week or two - there could be...

-t

torchbearer
04-25-2009, 04:57 PM
Wait a week or two - there could be...

-t

could be.
call me with hysteria when there is...
more people die in their bathtubs.

fedup100
04-25-2009, 04:57 PM
I read a thread over at GLP forum. There have been as many as 5k cases since March 1st. They have let this go on for almost 2 months before they did anything to stop it. Many more than 100 dead.

So there you go, welcome to your new world order with no borders and no protection what so ever from the plagues and scourges to come.

Note the us will not close the border, of course not, that would be taking a step to STOP the spread.

torchbearer
04-25-2009, 05:01 PM
The sociopaths in charge get off in creating mass fear. In fact, I bet there is some elitist right now jacking-off to the hype right now.

Johnnybags
04-25-2009, 05:13 PM
60 dead?
I would have thought there were 60,000 dead with all the hype.

In Mexico, about 70 deaths out of roughly 1,000 cases represents a fatality rate of about 7 percent. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 40 million worldwide, had a fatality rate of about 2.5 percent.

torchbearer
04-25-2009, 05:16 PM
In Mexico, about 70 deaths out of roughly 1,000 cases represents a fatality rate of about 7 percent. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 40 million worldwide, had a fatality rate of about 2.5 percent.

How many died of the Bird Flu "Pandemic"?
How many died of the West Nile Virus "Pandemic"?
Fear! Fear! Fear!
Don't buy the goods of fear until there is reason.
Use proper methods in preparing foods. Wash your hands often. Things your should do normally.
When people you know are coming down sick with it... quarantine is your friend.

Johnnybags
04-25-2009, 05:22 PM
How many died of the Bird Flu "Pandemic"?
How many died of the West Nile Virus "Pandemic"?
Fear! Fear! Fear!
Don't buy the goods of fear until there is reason.
Use proper methods in preparing foods. Wash your hands often. Things your should do normally.
When people you know are coming down sick with it... quarantine is your friend.

but bird flu does not travel from person to person as a rule. West nile is luck of the draw with infected skeeters. My guess is that this will spread coast to coast in a week or two and the death rate will be far lower than Mexico or the 1918 pandemic. Will still make for a nice wag the dog scenario for the inept government.

tangent4ronpaul
04-25-2009, 05:22 PM
could be.
call me with hysteria when there is...
more people die in their bathtubs.

That first hand report from a doc in Mexico City (obviously a bit dated) said at least 200 dead. We are seeing a 6-7% fatality rate. Now we have outbreaks in Tx, Ca, NYC and Kansas. Yeah - could be.

Here is a visualization from LANL about pandemic spread:

Starting with 10 cases in Los Angeles, how the flu might spread. Cases per one thousand people shown blue equals 1 or fewer red equals 100 or more. Credit: T. Germann et al., LANL

http://www.livescience.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=FluSpike_Visualization

http://www.livescience.com/health/060405_virtual_pandemic.html

Virtual Pandemic: 90 Days to Infect Entire U.S.

By Robert Roy Britt, LiveScience Managing Editor

posted: 05 April 2006 08:49 am ET

A new computer model reveals how a pandemic like the avian flu might spread quickly across the United States and what methods would best thwart the scenario.

Researchers assumed a starting point of 10 highly infectious influenza cases in Los Angeles, then let the model take it from there. The virus spread quickly, peaking in just 90 days with 100 or more infections per 1,000 residents of just about every corner of the country [Animated Map].

The simulation is an attempt to map out what might happen with a very uncertain bug: the avian flu virus H5N1 is a particular strain that does not yet easily pass between humans. If it morphs into such a strain, however, human deaths could mount quickly. Meantime, vaccines developed for current strains would likely not be effective against whatever variety ultimately emerges.

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has said the country is not prepared for such a scenario.

Lessons learned

The virtual pandemic suggests advance preparation of a modestly effective vaccine in large quantities is preferable to waiting to see exactly what strain emerges.

Quarantines, school closures and travel restrictions alone won't thwart the spread, but such measures can buy time while vaccines production is ramped up and tailored to the specific flu strain. In the simulation, long-range travel was cut to 10 percent of normal based on travel advisories that would presumably be instituted.

"Based on our results, combinations of mitigation strategies such as stockpiling vaccines or antiviral agents, along with social distancing measures could be particularly effective in slowing pandemic flu spread in the U.S.," said Ira Longini, a biostatistician with the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.

The variables

The model uses census data and 281 million synthetic people at work, play, school and home, along with Department of Transportation travel data that incorporates rapid spread from one city to another by air travel.

The computer model employs probabilities that an infected person will cross paths with others at home or, with lower probability, elsewhere.

"So we are only computing the probability of any person becoming infected on any given day, and a roll of the dice is needed to decide whether they are infected or not," said Timothy Germann of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The computer also considered one vexing aspect to the flu: About 33 percent of those infected don't develop symptoms and can unknowingly transmit the disease.