"I lived hyperinflation and financial meltdowns. Ask me a question."

[wgadget]

From another forum, but infinitely interesting.

You can even ask him a question...He predicts the end of the dollar as international currency to occur April 2009. Coming soon.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message738299/pg1

[lbadragan]

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[orafi]

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[Zippyjuan]

Hyperinflation by October huh? Prices going from deflation (actually that is flattening out now) to a thousand percent a month in just six months?

[ArchPaul]

Actually, I believe he said 20% - 50%, and yes it happens that quick. I was at the coin store talking to the owner that remembers the weimar crash. He said the currency inflated almost overnight. He said it went from 1usd = 5 Mark to 1usd = 1trillion mark so fast that they were paying employees hourly!

[tmosley]

Inflation takes about a year to make it into prices. They started printing like crazy last September. October isn't a bad estimate, honestly. When asked on this forum, I said it would almost certainly hit by the end of December (it won't be a holly jolly Christmas this year), but that was before they decided to flat out print a trillion dollars (with much, much more to come).

[wgadget]

Sounds like NOW is the time to head to Costco and purchase your Christmas presents.

Think of the savings...

[s35wf]

Inflation takes about a year to make it into prices. They started printing like crazy last September. October isn't a bad estimate, honestly. When asked on this forum, I said it would almost certainly hit by the end of December (it won't be a holly jolly Christmas this year), but that was before they decided to flat out print a trillion dollars (with much, much more to come).

so we all must do as much as we can to prepare for the coming SHTF scenario; as things seem to be moving along very quickly lately. i must try to work 2-3 jobs this spring/summer to attempt to get ahead from the hole ive found myself in this last year. hope i have the energy and stamina to continue this schedule.

Good Luck to us All!

[tmosley]

I personally am investing in some solar panels (I already have most of my food needs covered). This will allow me to continue to run my well should energy prices skyrocket, and keep a refrigerator and a freezer in operation, as well as a computer. I would say that continuing to have access to the net and electronic files will be invaluable, especially if you have done a good job at archiving important survival information (such as the 75 GB of files in the Freedom Living folder). Having this type of information will help you to be more efficient in your efforts, and thus could allow you to thrive in an environment without buying power.

[WRellim]

Actually, I believe he said 20% - 50%, and yes it happens that quick. I was at the coin store talking to the owner that remembers the weimar crash. He said the currency inflated almost overnight. He said it went from 1usd = 5 Mark to 1usd = 1trillion mark so fast that they were paying employees hourly!

Virtually no one LIVING (and certainly no one working behind a coin store counter) has first-hand memory of the Weimar hyperinflation and crash.

Seriously -- do the math. The Weimar crash happened in 1923 -- one would have had to be at least 10-15 years old to have had any "practical" experience with it; meaning they would have been born somewhere between 1908 to 1913, making them somewhere from 96 to 101 years old.

Now if you told me some old fart (with a heavy German accent) that you visited in a NURSING HOME had recounted their experience I might believe it.

But otherwise... it is SECONDHAND "memory" -- either heard from parents/grandparents other (now deceased) relatives; OR it is third-hand via reading about it.

I'm not saying that the statements made (or the conclusions from it) were false; just that it was NOT something the owner himself "remembers."

Not in 2009.

[Zippyjuan]

In the linked thread, the original poster says he lived in South America and was nine at time of hyperinflation- which would still mean he did not really personally experience the impact it has on people.

20- 50% inlfation by October (which is high but not hyperinflation) would have to assume that people's spending has picked up a lot by then. Prices have been down a lot because retailers are not able to sell all the goods they have. Doubling the asking price will only crush their sales further. Their costs are not skyrocketing either so they do not have those to pass along either.

[ArchPaul]

Virtually no one LIVING (and certainly no one working behind a coin store counter) has first-hand memory of the Weimar hyperinflation and crash.

Seriously -- do the math. The Weimar crash happened in 1923 -- one would have had to be at least 10-15 years old to have had any "practical" experience with it; meaning they would have been born somewhere between 1908 to 1913, making them somewhere from 96 to 101 years old.

Now if you told me some old fart (with a heavy German accent) that you visited in a NURSING HOME had recounted their experience I might believe it.

But otherwise... it is SECONDHAND "memory" -- either heard from parents/grandparents other (now deceased) relatives; OR it is third-hand via reading about it.

I'm not saying that the statements made (or the conclusions from it) were false; just that it was NOT something the owner himself "remembers."

Not in 2009.


He is older than dirt, and I didn't care to press him on how he got his information, I already knew most of what he was talking about. So I'm not going to call bullshit on the guy when what he was saying was true. Or factually cohesive. He said "I remember" how he remembers I have no idea, but he did say he'd show me the bank notes next time. He is a cool guy to talk to.

[ArchPaul]

In the linked thread, the original poster says he lived in South America and was nine at time of hyperinflation- which would still mean he did not really personally experience the impact it has on people.

20- 50% inlfation by October (which is high but not hyperinflation) would have to assume that people's spending has picked up a lot by then. Prices have been down a lot because retailers are not able to sell all the goods they have. Doubling the asking price will only crush their sales further. Their costs are not skyrocketing either so they do not have those to pass along either.

Depends on the person. I have a friend that can remember EVERY detail of his life to age 3. My daughter can remember stuff from age three also, stuff I had totally forgot had taken place. So I'm not going to categorically discount what he says. Take it with a grain of salt. yes.

Just because Americans are not spending money doesn't mean others aren't (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/12/china-stocks-up-on-bargain-oil/).

China secured oil supply deals totaling $41 billion
China will lend $25 billion to Russian oil giant Rosneft
President Xi Jinping signed a deal to lend $10 billion to Brazil's state-owned oil company
Chinalco, has submitted a bid of $19.5 billion to buy an 18 percent stake in beleaguered mining company Rio Tinto. Chinese firm Minmetals has offered $1.7 billion for Oz Minerals.
The spending spree extends to fast cars. Last month, a delegation of 90 Chinese companies, headed by Commerce Minister Chen Deming, toured Europe. Purchases included 37,000 BMWs from Germany and 13,000 Jaguars from Britain.

Sounds like they're divesting their dollar holdings into strategic assets to me.
Geting out of the dollar and getting stuff that will pay back.. sounds like schiff.

All that $ going into the global economy... along with our bailouts....
I think I'll take the safe road out. ;)

[raystone]

Here's one of his recommendations..any reason this wouldn't work ?


8) A minority of smart people started to get ready for the collapse.
> There is always a "smart minority" that take advantage of meltdowns.
I will tell you WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST BUSINESS in Argentina :

a) take a mortgage loan
b) buy a house ( in USA is difficult since a housing bubble burst simultaneously, so maybe it is not a fully applicable for the US meltdown)
c) convert all your saving to foreing and safe assets
d) wait overnight devaluation
e) brinng back your assets .
f) cancel your debt.
g) Shazaaam! A house for a tiny part of your savings! Well done !

[ArchPaul]

Here's one of his recommendations..any reason this wouldn't work ?


8) A minority of smart people started to get ready for the collapse.
> There is always a "smart minority" that take advantage of meltdowns.
I will tell you WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST BUSINESS in Argentina :

a) take a mortgage loan
b) buy a house ( in USA is difficult since a housing bubble burst simultaneously, so maybe it is not a fully applicable for the US meltdown)
c) convert all your saving to foreing and safe assets
d) wait overnight devaluation
e) brinng back your assets .
f) cancel your debt.
g) Shazaaam! A house for a tiny part of your savings! Well done !


Not sure how "f:" would work. Can you argue since your debt was denominated in dollars the contract is no longer binging? Or would the debt devalue also?
That is the important unknown in the equation. I'm SURE the banks would find someway to hose you. But, if you can get a fixed loan, buy physical non depreciating assets (i.e. don't buy a car, buy metals etc). and when inflation kicks in, and its greater than the interest rate on the loan, you can sell off the assets
and pay the loan with devalued dollars.

[Roxi]

In the linked thread, the original poster says he lived in South America and was nine at time of hyperinflation- which would still mean he did not really personally experience the impact it has on people.

20- 50% inlfation by October (which is high but not hyperinflation) would have to assume that people's spending has picked up a lot by then. Prices have been down a lot because retailers are not able to sell all the goods they have. Doubling the asking price will only crush their sales further. Their costs are not skyrocketing either so they do not have those to pass along either.


he said the first memory of hyperinflation he was 9... didn't mean that was the only one he had experienced, and in fact later in the writing he talks about several different areas where he experienced this


also I remember lots of things from about 5 on... a few things before then, I definitely remember a lot about kindergarten, and my teachers name was Mrs. Montgomery, and I could vividly describe the playground and my favorite spot :)