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View Full Version : Economic: Monetary Policy: Ron Paul predicts 15-yr depression, dollar crash in 1-4 yrs




DadaOrwell
03-25-2009, 11:17 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kADXWXgxKJk

New projections from Ron Paul as his prominence in the mainstream media continues to increase.

You can digg it at
http://digg.com/business_finance/Ron_Paul_predicts_15_yr_depression_dollar_crash_in _1_4_yrs

Meatwasp
04-12-2009, 06:04 PM
Dada,
I don't know where I have been but that is the first time I heard Ron Paul saying the DEPRESSION will last 15 years.
Thanks

ItsTime
04-12-2009, 06:24 PM
Ballsy prediction. I hope he is wrong.

Meatwasp
04-12-2009, 07:48 PM
I really wonder if prices of all thing will fall like in the great depression. Oldtimers use to tell me it was actual good as they could buy thing so cheap.

forsmant
04-12-2009, 08:28 PM
uhhh most prices have already fallen by at least half.

Original_Intent
04-12-2009, 08:32 PM
I really wonder if prices of all thing will fall like in the great depression. Oldtimers use to tell me it was actual good as they could buy thing so cheap.

Theis depression won't be deflationary, it will be inflationary if not hyperinflationary.

Meatwasp
04-12-2009, 08:43 PM
Theis depression won't be deflationary, it will be inflationary if not hyperinflationary.
Well that's a shame. I was looking forward to canned tuna being a dime and and breast of lamb being free.
If you have enough money saved you could really live in style. But then again paper money would be worthless.Wouldn't it?

Original_Intent
04-12-2009, 08:50 PM
The reason things got cheap was the money supply was contracted. There was nmoney scarcity so you could buy a lot with very little money.

Based on all the bailouts and govt spending, I don't see how a money supply contraction is in the cards. Just the opposite.

Meatwasp
04-12-2009, 09:02 PM
The reason things got cheap was the money supply was contracted. There was nmoney scarcity so you could buy a lot with very little money.

Based on all the bailouts and govt spending, I don't see how a money supply contraction is in the cards. Just the opposite.

I am not the sharpist tack on economics, so if the bailouts hadint happened we would have deflation?
Thank you

Original_Intent
04-12-2009, 09:07 PM
Not necessarily. But the fact that they did happen means we have to have inflation.

Pauls' Revere
04-13-2009, 09:20 AM
Seems that Ron Paul's insight is further confirmed:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/230213/Earnings-Recovery-Could-Take-20-Years?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD

I like that finally we see the use of "Depression" instead of " extended reccesion" or some other pc vernacular.

Earnings Recovery Could Take 20 Years
Posted Apr 13, 2009 09:48am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: ^dji, ^gspc
From The Business Insider, April 13, 2009:

Over the long haul, stocks track earnings (the 10% market return over the past century was composed of 2% real earnings growth, 3% inflation, 4% dividends, and 1% multiple expansion). It therefore makes sense to get a sense of how fast earnings are likely to recover once this depression ends.

and this...

If this recovery mirrors the 1930s recovery, S&P 500 earnings won't regain their highs until 2025 or so.

John also thinks that the current rally in the stock market will fail as soon as the stimulus bleeds off and the Bush tax cuts phase out next year:

forsmant
04-13-2009, 02:42 PM
Debt is money and debt has become increasingly worthless. All of this money creation you speak of is only replacing bad or defaulted debt and sitting still deep inside banks hard drives. That is why prices have fallen and that is why we have had price deflation. The money supply does not directly effect prices. There are a myriad of other factors that help determine price.

Debt is the medium of exchange in the world now. Those pieces of paper merely represents someones debt. The total amount of debt in the United states is something like 55 trillion dollars. That makes the three trillion or so created seem like a cup of beer being poured back into a nearly empty keg. Its not really going to extend the party.

crushingstep7
04-18-2009, 07:08 PM
If States were to take advantage of their 10th Amendment Right to Secede from a Union Gone Wild...

would we be able to avoid this depression and overwhelming debt??

sarahgop
04-23-2009, 04:53 AM
this seems a little too gloomy to me.

diggronpaul
04-23-2009, 08:04 PM
Ron Paul predicts 15-yr depression, dollar crash in 1-4 yrs
15-years... try eternity. This is a globalist take-down.... there will be no economic resuscitation unless the people step-in.


Theis depression won't be deflationary, it will be inflationary if not hyperinflationary.
Ummm, they are crashing the economy... on purpose.

Writing off all that debt means that there is going to be a contraction in credit (ie money)... and you better believe it's deflationary.

Bern
04-23-2009, 08:37 PM
I am not the sharpist tack on economics, so if the bailouts hadint happened we would have deflation?
Thank you

We are going to have deflation with or without the bailouts. The bailouts and market interventions are designed to slow down the process (and drag it out). They cannot, however, alleviate the need for it. Bad credit must be liquidated.

All the interventions are doing is transferring the losses to the taxpayers instead of the companies and entities that were responsible for participating in the malinvestment (ie. socializing the losses).

The Fed is trying like mad to create inflation, but it will not work until the bad credit has been liquidated. Once it's gone though, watch out. The Fed is not going to be able to undo what they've done fast enough to stem the incredible inflationary forces they are creating - assuming they can even recognize the correct time to start trying (hint: they didn't know when to stop their low interest rate policy which created the bubble in the first place).