DOW watch thread March 6, 2009

[LiveToWin]

DOW futures at |6597.0 -34.00|

Offical government jobs report out today.

[tremendoustie]

I have no idea. Recent day to day DOW behavior seems totally irrational to me. I do predict gold will be up today.

[brandon]

I predict that I will be buying DXO today.

[hugolp]

I have no idea. Recent day to day DOW behavior seems totally irrational to me. I do predict gold will be up today.

I dont trade and even I know that. :p

Hugo

[chris198]

I'm not basing this off anything, but I have a feeling the dow will drop 300+, big emphasis on the +.




But hell, watch stocks gain +200. haha

[ILUVRP]

The 20yr TB interest rate is down now.

TBT is down about .5 % now.

Therefor I think the Dow will go up today more than 100 pts.

I am long QID , TBT , DGP

1minute until numbers come out .

[Bruno]

Worst jobs loss in 60 years. This will not be a good day, ending a bad week overall.

And yes, gold is already up as well this morning to $940/oz.

[Ethek]

the key stocks are getting pumped up pre trading JPM, CIT, WFC, XOM, GE. I say we open and drop a hundred points or so as people take what they can and jump.. then things get re pumped with big money and we close up 50 or so points.

[Mister Grieves]

Pain

[ArchPaul]

damn, they were expecting 7.9% unemployment, its 8.1%...

[eric_cartman]

the big event today will be whether the US dollar index breaks below 88.

the US dollar has already fallen a lot today, but seems to have found resistance at around the 88 level

[ILUVRP]

The people that are short the market have been making money .

Look for them to take profits before the weekend.

They must buy , this will help run the market up .

The shorts are affaid of what the goverment will say over any weekend.

I would think they will become very short time traders.

The only really bad news ( or shoe to drop ) that could happen now is a lagre run on the dollar.

JMHO

[ItsTime]

150ish but it could be a lot worse than that.

[Original_Intent]

I thought yesterday would be worse than it was, and it was a terrible day.

The market has been so irrational lately that I am just going to say small down under 50 points.

But yeah if it was rational I would say another 200-300 down. (hedge)

[Sandra]

Job figures are in and it went up? Not by much, but ...up?

[ghengis86]

unemployment soars to 8.1% (government calculated), and the Dow opens up? huh? maybe they're taking it as employers are cutting operating costs and positioning themselves for the future, but another 650k jobs lost is crazy. then again, unemployment benefits allow them to live like they're still employed, so...

[Dorfsmith]

Just shot up.

[Sandra]

Gee, I wonder what they'll say the reason for the uptick is?

[ILUVRP]

I would never underestimate big money.

They are always in front of everything.

Yesterdays selloff was because of todays unemployment numbers.

They would want everyone to stew the numbers over the weekend and be buyers early next week .

Then the big players would have someone to sell to.

JMHO

[Crash Martinez]

"Wall St Opens Higher Despite Job Data"

"Wall St Opens Up As Commodities Offset Data"

So there's the line. Right now, up 120.

[acptulsa]

The only really bad news ( or shoe to drop ) that could happen now is a lagre run on the dollar.

I sincerely hope that everyone here is out of the dollar and all related securities (like bonds) by now. They keep talking about how strong it is, but they're just comparing it to other fiat currencies in a global meltdown. How goofy is that?

As for stocks, the trick is to figure out what will survive. We are near the bottom, I think. How much can they devalue the hard assets of corporations? We're nearing the devaluation we had when the Dow was at it's 1932-33 nadir.

Meanwhile, we will indeed see that fluctuation in gold value that some here have claimed for months and months doesn't happen. Everyone loves safety right now, and that makes gold more dear. It may never change, but that doesn't mean there aren't many, many more people who want it holding down the bottoms of their safes than usual. Supply and demand.

Well, gold will be pretty safe in uncertain times, I think. But the real opportunities lie in how much cheap stock you can get for your 'in demand' gold. And the faith in this nation that is required to make that leap and buy now that 'blood is running in the streets' (and the wisdom with which people choose solid-looking companies) will divide the next generation's rich from poor...

...at least, if history really is going to repeat itself again. And, of course, if anything suvives. But it is the twenty-first century...

[Crash Martinez]

up 64 now... that 120 stuff didn't last long...

[ILUVRP]

I am a very small player in the mkt, less than 10k.

To me its just something to do , keeps me off the golf courses.

I am a firm believer that if things act normal , interest rates should go up , otherwise no one will buy our debt.

No one knows what treasury/fed are going to do.

This stock mkt has no leaders . That is whats missing.

It used to be GM , then IBM , then GE , then Microsoft/dell .

Now there is none.

Over the long run ( 2 yrs ) , this market will slowly sink under its own weight.

[ILUVRP]

up 64 now... that 120 stuff didn't last long...

Days not over yet.:rolleyes:

[Sandra]

+26.92 now

[Crash Martinez]

Days not over yet.:rolleyes:

That is so true.



Anyway I'm in the mood for a roller coaster ride.

[acptulsa]

Over the long run ( 2 yrs ) , this market will slowly sink under its own weight.

Are you sure you're not talking about the last two years? I think it pretty much needs a periscope to see the sea as it is...

[Crash Martinez]

Currently up 20, incidentally...

[PatriotLegion]

Anyone else feel a 150+ gain today? It was a big loss week so some small gain will make everyone feel better... ;)

[ILUVRP]

Are you sure you're not talking about the last two years? I think it pretty much needs a periscope to see the sea as it is...

MHO is that over the long run the DOW will bottem at around 4760 .

14000 x .66 = 9240 14000-9240 = 4760

Major mkt moves like to retrace 66% .

The same as GOLD did going down from 875 to about 285 ( 66 % )

Many people go by different ways to judge mkt moves , like Fibonacci , Elliot wave ,support lines , cup and handle , channels .

As for me I look for " key reversals ", that would be like if today the market would have opened down 300 pts then closed higher for the day , that would be a key reversal and a great buy signal .

Most hugh moves are triggered buy a key reversal.

[Bruno]

I am a very small player in the mkt, less than 10k.

To me its just something to do , keeps me off the golf courses.

I am a firm believer that if things act normal , interest rates should go up , otherwise no one will buy our debt.

No one knows what treasury/fed are going to do.

This stock mkt has no leaders . That is whats missing.

It used to be GM , then IBM , then GE , then Microsoft/dell .

Now there is none.

Over the long run ( 2 yrs ) , this market will slowly sink under its own weight.


shame on you for doing anything that keeps you off the golf course. :D

[Original_Intent]

This is the bounce you get when you launch a dead cat at the ceiling, and it hits the sofa on the way down...

http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb17/Denryu/chrtsrv.gif

[slacker921]

"This stock mkt has no leaders" ...

take a look at RGR .. Ruger. There's your market leader. What's that tell you?

[ihsv]

One of these days they'll launch that dead cat so hard it'll splatter all over wall street.

[Sandra]

-.018

[Crash Martinez]

Now down around 20.

[angelatc]

Obama is speaking in Ohio, right now.

Market is down 38.

[angelatc]

DOwn 48.

I hope he makes it a short speech.

[ILUVRP]

"This stock mkt has no leaders" ...

take a look at RGR .. Ruger. There's your market leader. What's that tell you?

They won't take our guns. They may take the ammo .

Thats why i reload my own.

Ruger and S&W are doing great.

[Thrashertm]

damn, they were expecting 7.9% unemployment, its 8.1%...

Are they trying to scare us into accepting yet more "stimulus"?

[LiveToWin]

An intresting graph today. I wonder if its going to be another rollercoaster, or if this is going to turn into a big sell off.

[Crash Martinez]

Up to Zero.

[Crash Martinez]

Up to Zero.

Nix that.


haha! I'm getting my 'coaster ride!

[LibertyEagle]

Are they trying to scare us into accepting yet more "stimulus"?

I don't think they care what we think anymore. They just do whatever the hell they want to do. :(

[LibertyEagle]

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png?326548

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_home.gif?random=0.782958984375

[Crash Martinez]

And..... Up 12!



Weeeeeeeeee!!

[Sandra]

...and now it's at it's lowest. - 6,520.53

[Crash Martinez]

This is strangely entertaining. How about a 300 pt. 3:00 bounce, then a 400 pt. drop by 4:00? That I'd like to see. The Mighty Crash has spoken!

[ILUVRP]

Well , so much for my +100 up day.

[Crash Martinez]

Well , so much for my +100 up day.

If you had enough faith and truly believed, Obama would have raised the DOW up at your wish! :p

[amonasro]

If you had enough faith and truly believed, Obama would have raised the DOW up at your wish! :p

Remember, all he has to do is tell the sheeple to buy up those bargain stocks. Then watch the DOW soar!

[Sandra]

-6,501.89

[jclay2]

Remember, all he has to do is tell the sheeple to buy up those bargain stocks. Then watch the DOW soar!

Speaking of Bargain Stocks: I just looked up HMC(honda motor company) and their shares are trading like 4 dollars above equity value per share. It just seems a little strange, given that one of their biggest competitors is going bankrupt in the next couple months.

[ryanduff]

New 52 week low... 6488.75

Time for a drink. That was the agreement right? If the Dow broke 6500, we were all doing to drop what we were doing and get a drink?

[Bruno]

New 52 week low... 6488.75

Time for a drink. That was the agreement right? If the Dow broke 6500, we were all doing to drop what we were doing and get a drink?

The whole country needs a drink

[Crash Martinez]

6482.


Hokey Smoke Bullwinkle!

[ryanduff]

6479.11... Still keep setting records. Now that we broke 6500, I think we're back to 1996 levels if memory of the chart serves me correctly.

[Crash Martinez]

wow, it's after 3.


no bounce?

[LibertyEagle]

The whole country needs a drink

I know I do.

[Original_Intent]

They are renaming 401(k) to 200.5(k)

[acptulsa]

They are renaming 401(k) to 200.5(k)

:D

And dropping.

:eek:

[Original_Intent]

Actually DJIA just went positive. :eek:

[Original_Intent]

The whole country needs a drink

Investors took your advice, apparently.

[acptulsa]

Damn that was fast! Obviously somebody thinks we've found the bottom already. The PPT could not have done that alone.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Monday's are the big downers. I don't think it will get to 6,000 this coming Monday, but think it will the following Monday, Mar 16.

[Original_Intent]

Damn that was fast! Obviously somebody thinks we've found the bottom already. The PPT could not have done that alone.

Yes, it looks like it is going to be a very volatile end to a relatively quiet day. Could end up 100 or down 200 at this rate.

[Crash Martinez]

What the??

+40????

[PatriotLegion]

Come on 100+ up!!!

Show me that fixed market!!!

[Rock Sexton]

Where is that guy who told me that there's never a suspicious jump at the end of the day?

It's happened two days in a row now.

What a joke this whole system is. You mean to tell me with more bad data out, they finish positive on the day?

Sometimes I hope this country goes to crap just so that we can start all over again.

[AuH20]

Where is that guy who told me that there's never a suspicious jump at the end of the day?

It's happened two days in a row now.

What a joke this whole system is. You mean to tell me with more bad data out, they finish positive on the day?

Sometimes I hope this country goes to crap just so that we can start all over again.

I talk to traders and they tell me they like to create artificial rallies heading into the weekend. :D

[Original_Intent]

Where is that guy who told me that there's never a suspicious jump at the end of the day?

It's happened two days in a row now.

What a joke this whole system is. You mean to tell me with more bad data out, they finish positive on the day?

Sometimes I hope this country goes to crap just so that we can start all over again.

You shouldn't be upset that the market has an up day. it's a sign that the stimulus package is working. Everything is going to be OK. and the government has discovered a way to capture leprechauns and with all the gold we will settle all of our debts and we will all be rich.....

[Ethek]

That Surge was a rush to cover on the shorts. No one wants to be short into the weekend. Especially with things like the up-tick rule and mark-to-market being put on the chopping block. (maybe) I caught a nice 10% instant gain in FAS.


No real fix on the market yet.. but the Goverment may change the rules of the game this weekend. Who knows what will happen.

[newbitech]

Where is that guy who told me that there's never a suspicious jump at the end of the day?

It's happened two days in a row now.

What a joke this whole system is. You mean to tell me with more bad data out, they finish positive on the day?

Sometimes I hope this country goes to crap just so that we can start all over again.

I really don't think today was all that suspicious. The further down the markets go day in and day out the higher the chance we get a big bear rally. Traders aren't wanting to hold those short positions overnight or on the weekend, so they cover at the end of the day.

A 150 point up swing at the end of a week like this with 8% losses is not that surprising. I think the PPT fizzled out back in November when Obama took over. Consider this, the treasury sec geithner has yet to fill his staff. He is working by himself. This administration seems terribly incompetent when it comes to economic issues. I will definitely agree the markets got manipulated UP in the last 30 minutes, but I don't see this as anything unusual and I don't perceive this as government intervention.

I actually see the move up like this at the end of the day as a bad sign for next week. It will go lower and NOTHING the government can do will stop it.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Fridays are some of they better days on the market, historically. It's Mondays that suck.

[Rock Sexton]

You shouldn't be upset that the market has an up day. it's a sign that the stimulus package is working. Everything is going to be OK. and the government has discovered a way to capture leprechauns and with all the gold we will settle all of our debts and we will all be rich.....

Knowing this administration they'll probably capture this Leprechaun and then we will all die.

http://www.lcc.gatech.edu/~murray/courses/lcc2700sp05/locker/cwrenn/project3/images/lep.jpg

[LiveToWin]

Close at |6626.94 32.50|

[gaazn]

Sure is fun trying to dollar cost average Citi shares from $1.20, while waiting for the bounce.

[raiha]

Beware the Ides of March

[gaazn]

Beware the Ides of March

No worries. That's a Sunday.

[Dorfsmith]

You shouldn't be upset that the market has an up day. it's a sign that the stimulus package is working. Everything is going to be OK. and the government has discovered a way to capture leprechauns and with all the gold we will settle all of our debts and we will all be rich.....

Exactly.