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View Full Version : Stocks: Dow Watch 2009, how low will it go?




Liberty Star
03-05-2009, 11:28 PM
Day to day swings aside, I'm curious what you think will be the lowest DOW will go in 2009?

It closed at 6,594 today, near a 12 year low.

AmericasLastHope
03-05-2009, 11:30 PM
Half an ounce of gold will buy the Dow by the time it's all over.

Liberty Star
03-05-2009, 11:34 PM
Will that be 2009 or 2015, any guesstimate?

Someday that may be true, but how many decades/centuries are we from that rebirth of the free markets? That is the question.

AmericasLastHope
03-06-2009, 01:07 AM
Will that be 2009 or 2015, any guesstimate?

Someday that may be true, but how many decades/centuries are we from that rebirth of the free markets? That is the question.

No one knows the exact date. In 1929 the Dow was worth 28.5 ounces of gold, by 1933 it was worth two.

It could happen this year, but I think it will definitely happen by 2011.

Liberty Star
03-06-2009, 11:36 AM
No one knows the exact date. In 1929 the Dow was worth 28.5 ounces of gold, by 1933 it was worth two.

It could happen this year, but I think it will definitely happen by 2011.

Ok and thanks for that historic perspective.

I'm beginning to think that I'm way too optimistic about markets.

newbitech
03-06-2009, 11:48 AM
I picked 5500, but I think it will hit around 5900 by the end of the year.

I expect a technical bounce (aka dead cat) starting next week and rallying into the summer to take the dow back up to around 7500 by end of summer then look for a precipitous sell off thru the fall and early winter. I see flat trading through the holidays and new year at the 5900-6000 level closing the year at 5950 or so. 2010 is when the shit starts hitting the fan. I think by summer of 2010 inflation takes hold and the dollar strength evaporates. We'll see the dow crumble down next year to the 3500-4000 range and gold will creep to close to 2k. Then look for the wars to escalate and civil unrest to start.

We have about 15 months to have our disaster plans in place.

Crash Martinez
03-06-2009, 11:50 AM
We have about 15 months to have our disaster plans in place.

...or 15 minutes, depending what happens...

newbitech
03-06-2009, 11:53 AM
...or 15 minutes, depending what happens...

there is an awful lot of stuff going on behind the scenes to keep this thing going so the elites can get on board. the life raft for the elites hasn't departed yet.

I don't think the panic has set in. still too much optimism out there. Israel will be the key in your scenario. If they decide to hit Iran this summer, all bets are off.

Austin
03-06-2009, 11:58 AM
I picked 5500, but I think it will hit around 5900 by the end of the year.

I expect a technical bounce (aka dead cat) starting next week and rallying into the summer to take the dow back up to around 7500 by end of summer then look for a precipitous sell off thru the fall and early winter. I see flat trading through the holidays and new year at the 5900-6000 level closing the year at 5950 or so. 2010 is when the shit starts hitting the fan. I think by summer of 2010 inflation takes hold and the dollar strength evaporates. We'll see the dow crumble down next year to the 3500-4000 range and gold will creep to close to 2k. Then look for the wars to escalate and civil unrest to start.

We have about 15 months to have our disaster plans in place.

I'm no expert, but I agree. I think a dead cat bounce is in the near future.

Liberty Star
03-06-2009, 12:01 PM
I picked 5500, but I think it will hit around 5900 by the end of the year.

I expect a technical bounce (aka dead cat) starting next week and rallying into the summer to take the dow back up to around 7500 by end of summer then look for a precipitous sell off thru the fall and early winter. I see flat trading through the holidays and new year at the 5900-6000 level closing the year at 5950 or so. 2010 is when the shit starts hitting the fan. I think by summer of 2010 inflation takes hold and the dollar strength evaporates. We'll see the dow crumble down next year to the 3500-4000 range and gold will creep to close to 2k. Then look for the wars to escalate and civil unrest to start.

We have about 15 months to have our disaster plans in place.

That was my lowest guess too before, but now it seems like it could hit 5900 in a week, with just couple of 250 down swings. That wont be very unusual at all the way its been acting lately. That's only 600 points below current level.

Crash Martinez
03-06-2009, 12:17 PM
Let's not forget that Zimbabwe's stock market looks FANTASTIC! Maybe by 2010 the DOW will be around 75,000! If and when we run into hyperinflation, even our current diminished capability of calculation will be decimated.

Liberty Star
03-06-2009, 12:21 PM
That made me wonder what happens to stock prices when there is hyperinflation, stock prices will go up?

More inflation = Higher Dow?

Liberty Star
03-07-2009, 09:43 AM
We have about 15 months to have our disaster plans in place.


Are you serious?


How many people here have such plans in place?

I might have my head in sand right now :)

Number19
03-07-2009, 12:53 PM
Really tough call - but I went for the 4000 level.

Unemployment - 8.1 - end of February. March and April will be equally bad, with the numbers reaching 9%. I see the next resistance level as being around 5,800 and we'll see this in the short term. But as unemployment pushes toward 11% toward the end of the year, I see the DOW plummeting down to 4,000. This will be a major resistance level which should hold through this year.

Liberty Star
03-09-2009, 06:47 PM
Really tough call - but I went for the 4000 level.

Unemployment - 8.1 - end of February. March and April will be equally bad, with the numbers reaching 9%. I see the next resistance level as being around 5,800 and we'll see this in the short term. But as unemployment pushes toward 11% toward the end of the year, I see the DOW plummeting down to 4,000. This will be a major resistance level which should hold through this year.

Lets see how it turns out. Roubini is predicting 5000 for Dow:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949

tangent4ronpaul
03-10-2009, 03:08 AM
Are any of those gambling sites laying odds for how low it will go in 2009?

-t

Liberty Star
03-10-2009, 12:09 PM
Are any of those gambling sites laying odds for how low it will go in 2009?

-t


I doubt it lol


Incidentally, ten more days like today and DOW is over 10K again.


^DJI 1:50PM ET 6,868.27 321.22 4.91% 344,952,926 Chart, , More
^IXIC 1:50PM ET 1,347.40 78.76 6.21% 0 Chart, , More
^GSPC 1:50PM ET 715.04 38.51 5.69% 4,292,991,172 Chart, , More

Original_Intent
03-10-2009, 12:24 PM
I have always guessed at 4200 in "inflation adjusted to 2008" dollars as the bottom. If hyperinflation kicks in, we will have reached "bottom" although actual value could still go down.

slacker921
03-10-2009, 12:27 PM
... Incidentally, ten more days like today and DOW is over 10K again.[/HTML]

if it blows through about 7500 with good steam then I could see this.. but much more likely that this dead cat bounce will take us up a little over 7,000 and then we continue the drop.

And they've been talking openly about the DOW going to 5,000 on CNBC. IMHO for it to go lower than that we'd have to see something that wipes out some of the cash that is sitting on the sides waiting to get back in. A major bank failure, outbreak of war, terrorist attack, etc.. and then there's nobody left to catch the falling knives.

Ethek
03-10-2009, 12:58 PM
It'll bounce 15-20% from the time they suspend mark-to-market. I could see, 9000 if that happens. Warm weather, cheap gas.. people are looking to root for the market. I dont think we got a complete capitulation so Im guessing we bounce to about 8100~8300 if that. Then its up to a 90% drop. The timing may just depend on how fast we go up. It could come crashing back down in May or September. I'm going to take any gains from the rally and cash out half for some physical metals. I have only one gold stock right now and i expect it might be really soft during the initial part of this rip higher. I'll buy those back when the market is loosing some of its upward momentum.

The market is going up shortly. Don't fight the trend.

Liberty Star
03-13-2009, 11:39 AM
if it blows through about 7500 with good steam then I could see this.. but much more likely that this dead cat bounce will take us up a little over 7,000 and then we continue the drop.

And they've been talking openly about the DOW going to 5,000 on CNBC. IMHO for it to go lower than that we'd have to see something that wipes out some of the cash that is sitting on the sides waiting to get back in. A major bank failure, outbreak of war, terrorist attack, etc.. and then there's nobody left to catch the falling knives.

Well CNBC talks matter really not IMO, they were talking about DOW 20,000 not too long ago.
I'm not saying DOW is steaming back up, just guessing on probability of DOW lows for 2009. There is so much negativity in the air, that COULD mean the worst is here or almost here.

Liberty Star
03-23-2009, 07:14 PM
Almost 50% have predicted DOW hitting 4000 or lower.
This is going to be an interesting year and an interesting DOW 2009 chart.

Original_Intent
03-23-2009, 08:16 PM
I started this exact poll last year - like October.

It is just funny to read it and people were saying that 6500 was a "Doomsday scenario" I need to find that old thread and give 'er a bump.

Liberty Star
07-26-2009, 09:27 AM
I started this exact poll last year - like October.

It is just funny to read it and people were saying that 6500 was a "Doomsday scenario" I need to find that old thread and give 'er a bump.

Yea it's amazing how our thinking changes from time to time. Examining past sentimemts does help keep things in perspective and maybe in predicting future trends.

Kludge
07-26-2009, 09:29 AM
Ha! Thanks for bumping this.

Aratus
07-26-2009, 10:35 AM
we are after the bottom. i said ---5000--- and i was sorta pessimistic.
i now think ---6500--- is the worst case scenario for any bottom from
now to january ONE of 2010. actually i'd be quite surprised if we dipped
below 8000 or 7000 once again! i think we can soon think of a bear market...

Zippyjuan
07-26-2009, 11:35 AM
That dead cat must be made out of rubber with how high it has bounced. But don't be disappointed. That internet econ guru Reinhardt had predicted a Dow of just 2800. I was lucky (yes- not smart enough- I don't pretend to be able to predict the market) to have put money into the market the week this thread was started.

tmosley
07-26-2009, 02:54 PM
I hope you are taking profits. I'm fairly sure the next stage of the collapse will come sometime September-October, and it will be worse than last year. MUCH worse.

Liberty Star
07-26-2009, 07:03 PM
I hope you are taking profits. I'm fairly sure the next stage of the collapse will come sometime September-October, and it will be worse than last year. MUCH worse.


This headline on Yahoo Finance news page had prompted me to bump this thread:



Dow 15,000, Here We Come: Stocks Going to New Highs, Lemonides Says

Jul 23, 2009 08:00am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession

Quarterly earnings reports have reignited the dormant rally that began in early March and ran into June. The Nasdaq is on an eleven-day winning streak. The Dow dipped fractionally Wednesday but is just about break even for the year and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 is at its highest point since November.

Skeptics warn the rally may fade as expectations get ahead of reality. But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there's plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. "When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you're bumping up against the top end of a range it’s sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher," he says.

Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, got the 'Tech Ticker' crowd going on Wednesday, when he made a similar call, saying stocks are 50% undervalued and the Dow could hit 10,000 by year end. Lemonides' call is even more bold: "I don't think it would be surprising to see a 12,000 number [on the Dow] six months to a year out," he says.

But he's not done there: "You'll see the market retrace its old high which means I think that over a couple of years you'll see 15,000 on the Dow."

I told you it was bold.


http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/288287/Dow-15000-Here-We-Come-Stocks-Going-to-New-Highs-Lemonides-Says?tickers=%5Edji,%5EGSPC,qqqq,ba,lm,mmm,spy



After reading this, I also think that greed factor has taken over fear factor too quickly among many and risk ahead is for downward slide. But I don't think we'll see DOW go lower than 6500 in 2009.

Objectivist
07-26-2009, 07:39 PM
Seeing that I called the NASDAQ Crash and missed it by a few, I thought it would drop to 1800 when it was on the climb to 5000. I've repeatedly stated 4500 on the DOW, but that was before TARP and the government counterfeiting the Market by pumping more into it. SO I don't see the DOW as a true market, it's completely counterfeit now that it's become a Fascist entity.

At this point, I'd go even lower. Then again you cannot make a prediction on the Market when it's not producing in reality.

TCE
07-26-2009, 09:01 PM
The stock market will be higher than 9000. As inflation kicks in (and it will), the amount of stock bought will go way up. By the time the markets adjust to the real value in dollars, it will be too late. People will have bought so much stock that the DOW will easily be in the five digits. As more money is then created, people will buy more stocks with cheaper and cheaper dollars, driving the DOW even higher. In a hyper inflationary scenario where money is constantly being printed, the market cannot adjust fast enough and the DOW will go up infinitely.

However, the shares will be worthless in the end.

Liberty Star
11-05-2009, 11:17 AM
Yesterday I heard rumor on CNBC that inflation was not a problem according to Bernake rate annoucement, wonder if they are being forthcoming.




Only few more weeks left to get your predictions in.

Liberty Star
12-27-2009, 11:51 AM
At year end, these 8 voters should be recognized for making the best educated guess/prediction:


Not much lower, 6500 is the bottom :

Cap, Cap'n Crunk, echebota, Hunter Gatherer, Lafayette, Monolithic, SLSteven, youngbuck

youngbuck
12-27-2009, 11:53 AM
Thanks Liberty Star ;)

I'm surprised at how long ago I made that vote.