Karl Denninger: What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It) "We're done guys."

[RonPaulR3VOLUTION]

What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)

http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=86006

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

* All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
* All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
* The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
* Government debt costs will ramp. This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
* Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
* Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
* Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
* The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
* Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.

The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.

It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.

Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html




We're done guys.

Have a look at the XLF and rest of the financials.

The market is going to disassemble every company in the S&P 500, one at a time.

Government isn't going to force the truth, therefore, government will go down the hole when their funding capacity is cut off, and it will be.

This is a binary event - either they cut this out before the backstop demands all collapse on top of them at once, or they die with it.

We're done guys. I wish it wasn't true, but it is. The people who can fix it won't fix it, and we as a people are still playing "happy face", and will continue to as a society until it is too late to fix it.

There are no mustard seeds, just nuclear explosions.


http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=86006

[cbc58]

well that's his opinion...

why does this stuff always show up on a down day... to feed the fire of fear.

that's what some want us to think to buy gold and silver and help the market crash. not saying it's not going to go down but there is all kinds of stuff that can be done to delay it ... which they will do if needed.

i see sp 600 for sure and then a huge bounce and then low, low, low (just a guess).

i wonder if all that tarp money went to short the market somehow...

war and defaulting on our debt is the only way out.

[hugolp]

When Keynesians/Monetarist join the gloom and doom party, is it time to panic or is it alredy too late?

Just so people have a perspective of how Denninger opinions have changed in few months, here are his predictions for 2009. Check how his predictions for the USA have changed for the worts. Denninger undestand the economics, but keeps seing the goverment as something whos porpouse is do good for the people. Then when it does not, he rants about it. :rolleyes: . Maybe this crisis shows him the real nature of people, even the ones that are in goverment. Well, anyways, here are his predictions for 2009 at the beggining of the year:




Ok, so with that cheery backdrop, here you go with my predictions for 2009.... and I will prefix this by saying this is a list I hope proves to be entirely incorrect. Perhaps there really is a Unicorn that craps skittles even though I've yet to find it - this is one round of predictions I'm willing to take a zero score on come December 09.

* The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P 500. Why does CNBC continue to put people on the air who, if you listened to them, cost you 40% or more of your money?
* Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Other capital goods beyond housing will see real price declines for the first time since the 1930s. Debt is inherently deflationary; the "hyperinflationists" will once again be shown to be wrong (how many years running will it be now?)
* Housing prices will continue to decline. I believe we're about halfway done with the price correction. Those who think we will turn this in 2009 are wrong - unless we get an all-on collapse in prices in early 2009, which I do not believe will occur. I've heard several claims we will have positive year-over-year home price changes in 2009. I'll take the other side of that bet.
* The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. We will see either a Treasury Market selloff or worse, severe instability in the dollar at some point in 2009.
* GDP will post a 12-month negative number and there is a decent shot that we will actually see an official depression print before the end of 2009, defined as a 10% decline peak-to-trough.
* The Stock Market has not bottomed although you may think it has for a few months. The annual range will be quite extreme; I would not be surprised at all to see 1,000 touched on the SPX in the first part of the year. I believe the SPX will at least touch 500 in the next 12-24 months and the current bottom will not hold. It is possible that we could see a crash to SPX 300 and DOW 3,000 some time this year, probably after the spring (when the "Obama Halo" wears off - if it isn't blown off by economic events first.) Yes, this means I am predicting a fifty percent swing in the SPX in 2009. Lots of money to be made as a trader if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor.
* Precious metals will not be a safe haven. The callers for $1600 and above on gold will be wrong, unless there is a major military conflict. I do not rate that probability as particularly high, but it is an event (along with a major terrorism incident - nuclear or biochemical - that would cause a rocket shot in Gold prices), so I am hedging that call. The risk of this sort of "response" to the economic crisis is, however, real, and will rise significantly going into 2010 and beyond. We'll revisit this one (a major war) next year.
* The Dollar will not collapse. This is not because we're in great shape or will truly recover, it is because the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. Last year pundits were all calling for the dollar to collapse to 40 - it didn't happen. Now they're calling the dollar's strength a "Bear market rally." Nonsense; the simple truth is that while we're in bad shape the rest of the world is literally on the precipice of a full-on collapse. European banks are more-levered and less-transparent than our banks as just one example.
* The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it - yet. Needless to say that would rocket the Dollar Index but it won't be our strength that does it - it will be their weakness.
* The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. The math on this is simple - the "consumerist legion of more" has run its course and all that's left is debt. It hurts and bad; expecting the American Consumer to cut off his other arm is just plain dumb. By the way this is a good thing in the longer term for America once the excess debt is forced out and defaulted through the system.
* Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse and most commercial Real Estate REITs will be either insolvent or limping on life support. There will be calls for bailouts (which may be attempted; the calls are already starting to be heard) but it won't matter - a failed business is a failed business, bailout or no, and overcapacity must go away before sustainable business conditions can return.
* Along with the above, expect 10% of all retail stores to close, and that number could go as high as 20%. That's not going to be fun; there will be hundreds of malls that wind up literally shuttered across America. Stay away from most retailers and property groups as investments. Firms like SPG and VNO are levitating on the strength of their dividends (7-10% yields at present); I believe this is a sucker play; if retailer defaults force dividend cuts (and I believe they will) the commercial REITs will go straight into the toilet.
* Several states will get in serious financial trouble and outright default of one or more is possible in 2009. California leads this parade. But even if there is a default on a state basis, the effect will be highly localized, as county and municipal governments vary in their wisdom and budget process. The real pain comes in state-wide social and educational programs. Be very careful if you are in municipal bonds or thinking of getting back into them (I recommended they be dumped in 2007 - look at what has happened to the closed-end funds in 08! Aieeee!) as the default risk is VERY REAL. If you're buying individual issues and do the work to determine not only the risk of default but also the likely recovery if they do default there are some good deals out there - but only if you're doing the work. "Trust me" (as in buying funds, whether mutual funds or closed-end stuff) is very dangerous.
* Mortgages are not done. The story last year was "Subprime." This year's will be "ALT-A", "Option ARMs" and so-called "Prime". The Fed and Treasury know this, which is why they are playing games with "agency" debt in a desperate attempt to clear this market before the ticking nuclear devices go off. The amount of debt involved in these "bad deals" is vastly higher than that in the "subprime" space and if they fail to contain it (a near certainty) Round #2 of severe bank instability gets served up on us in the second half of 2009.
* If you want to refinance a mortgage you may get one brief shot at it with long rates around 4%. You're nuts to buy outright unless you intend to die in the home, but if you have a solid reason to be obtaining a mortgage or wish to refinance you will probably get the opportunity. This assumes the "buydown game" gets going before Treasuries dislocate; if you get the opportunity take it as it is likely to be fleeting. The few places in this country where homes wind up selling for 2.5x incomes (on average) and you have an opportunity to finance at 4% and change will be decent buying opportunities - if you're sure you can cash flow the note (e.g. your job and/or income stream is not in any danger of collapsing.)
* Those who have said that the corporate bond market is being "unreasonable" in its expectation for defaults will start to look like the jackasses they are. Actual default rates (not projections) on non-investment-grade debt will skyrocket starting in 2009 and there will be no sign of it turning around this year. If you're playing in this area of the market thinking that "the worst is behind us", I hope you like walking around bald as the haircuts handed out to folks like you will be especially severe and delivered with a straight razor.
* The calls for "more lending" to consumers and businesses will go exactly nowhere. The problem isn't credit availability - there's plenty of money available to lend if you are credit-worthy. Those who are being turned down now simply aren't credit-worthy when one looks at what they want to do with the money and what they're backing their repayment capacity with. The more "credit stimulus" is thrown into the economy (and there will be more) the worse the downturn will get.
* General Motors and Chrysler will fail to meet their targets and it will be labor that sinks the deal. At least one and probably both will wind up in some form of bankruptcy in 2009. The UAW is insane; Gettlefinger needs to be strung up by his genitals and pelted with rotten tomatoes by his union "brothers", and if they had a lick of sense they'd have already done it. They obviously don't. I give this mess six months tops, with Ford as the only possible survivor. The recent GMAC games show exactly how desperate they are; 0% 5 year loans to people with 620 FICO scores are flat-out insane and the default rates on those loans are going to wind up in economics textbooks five years hence.
* Protectionism and currency manipulation will rear their ugly heads in 2009, originating not here but in Asia as their economies go straight into the toilet. China and Japan are at severe risk here.
* Commodities will appear to be headed for a new bull market but this will turn out to be a false hope as demand continues to collapse. Attempts to manage oil output to prop up the price will fail. Several oil-producing nations will find themselves in serious economic trouble, with Russia being in the lead but by no means alone.
* Sovereign debt defaults will number at least three with many other nations on "watch" for same; we had one last year (Iceland.) Noise about a US "AAA" downgrade will continue. Highest on the list for probables are Russia, which needs oil at roughly double its current price - and stable - to be financially viable. Not going to happen in the near term.
* China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down - this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term. Those who think China will be "ok" are deluded; they have a horrifying overcapacity problem (debt-financed, of course) and there is no way for them to get out of it. They are truly going to "take it in both holes" down the road, but the worst of it won't be in 2009 - that is still a year or two in the future.
* Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. It won't be because they want to screw the US (although they should have a long time ago, given our profligate and unsustainable habits), it will be because they will be forced to redirect their resources inward as their own economies collapse.
* "The City" (London to be precise, Britain generally) will be recognized as getting it "worse than we are" (in America.) This will be the first of many validations of my thesis "we're screwed, they're gang-raped."
* Things will get "revolting" in a number of nations. Not here in America. Yet. If we're lucky the American Sheep will wake up and stage some of that peaceful protest stuff I outlined above. If we're not so fortunate 2010 could be really bad.




From here: http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html

Hugo

[acptulsa]

Maybe it is this dire. Maybe it is this apocalyptic. Maybe it will come down to this level of rubble for us to rebuild. But Rome did not burn in a day. And even if this does happen, it won't happen overnight.

[hugolp]

well that's his opinion...

why does this stuff always show up on a down day... to feed the fire of fear.

that's what some want us to think to buy gold and silver and help the market crash. not saying it's not going to go down but there is all kinds of stuff that can be done to delay it ... which they will do if needed.

i see sp 600 for sure and then a huge bounce and then low, low, low (just a guess).

i wonder if all that tarp money went to short the market somehow...

war and defaulting on our debt is the only way out.


Check the post I just did with his predictions at the beggining of the year. He was saying precious metals would not be a safe haven. Denninger is not a precious metal lover.

Hugo

[cbc58]

i pretty much agree with all his predictions. i'm not an economist... but it all makes sense.
he may be wrong on food comodities since prices are sure to jump in the coming years.

[Johnnybags]

the FED will be buying US treasuries before they expropriate the retirement accounts. Just like England announced today and just like Brown came to congress to beg for( not in so many words). Its when rates jack up and the FED is overwhelmed with inflation and the Chinese and Japanese quit that our 401's and IRA's will be legislated into a special guaranteed fund. Also in an emergency Obama will temporarily suspend the capital gains tax I bet for 2 years or more. The entire house of cards depends on if the treausury can continually finance the fiasco at low rates.

[hugolp]

the FED will be buying US treasuries before they expropriate the retirement accounts. Just like England announced today and just like Brown came to congress to beg for( not in so many words). Its when rates jack up and the FED is overwhelmed with inflation and the Chinese and Japanese quit that our 401's and IRA's will be legislated into a special guaranteed fund. Also in an emergency Obama will temporarily suspend the capital gains tax I bet for 2 years or more. The entire house of cards depends on if the treausury can continually finance the fiasco at low rates.


The Chinese are alredy buying comodities and companies arround the world (there are post in here detailing). Arabs have announced their own currency. Japan yesterday anounced a 21 billion dollar plan to give a check to their citizen. That is alredy happening.

And the USA goverment is spending like there is no tomorrow. If there was a agreement to let the dollar go, it would certainly look a lot like what its happening today.

The most funny part of all is that Denninger (with his usual arrogance) was laughing at the guys that were predicting what he is saying now just two months ago. Denninger seems like a good guy, but he has to relax a bit, and acknoledge that he can be wrong. I think the worship at his forum has gone to his head.

Hugo

[Ethek]

Don't for get suspension of mark-to-market... Government condoned fraud. The government will legalize book cooking ala Enron to keep the whole system going. This mess will drop to about 6400 then turn on a dime with a rummor or a result of that mark-to-market meeting on the 12th. Sometime between April and Sept the wheels come off all together, the Dow may hit 9k before them. May not.

[Johnnybags]

The Chinese are alredy buying comodities and companies arround the world (there are post in here detailing). Arabs have announced their own currency. Japan yesterday anounced a 21 billion dollar plan to give a check to their citizen. That is alredy happening.

And the USA goverment is spending like there is no tomorrow. If there was a agreement to let the dollar go, it would certainly look a lot like what its happening today.

The most funny part of all is that Denninger (with his usual arrogance) was laughing at the guys that were predicting what he is saying now just two months ago. Denninger seems like a good guy, but he has to relax a bit, and acknoledge that he can be wrong. I think the worship at his forum has gone to his head.

Hugo

You facts are true but the US is simply not having trouble unloading its debt yet. Maybe the Treasury lies but certainly when the FED becomes the majority buyer of the debt the market will know. The treasury bubble and dollar rally ends when the market sniffs out the FED buying the majority of our debt. Inflation will kick in then and that is when I predict Denninger is correct about confiscation of 401k's and Ira's.

[enjerth]

Maybe it is this dire. Maybe it is this apocalyptic. Maybe it will come down to this level of rubble for us to rebuild. But Rome did not burn in a day. And even if this does happen, it won't happen overnight.

In the age of instant global communications, I think anything can happen overnight.

[acptulsa]

I think that's both a good point and a simplistic view. You still can't get a thousand tons of coal from Utah to New Hampshire overnight. Even a house of cards comes down in stages, as a general rule.

[hugolp]

I think that's both a good point and a simplistic view. You still can't get a thousand tons of coal from Utah to New Hampshire overnight. Even a house of cards comes down in stages, as a general rule.

The Soviet Union went down quite quickly.

Hugo

[acptulsa]

The Soviet Union went down quite quickly.

Hugo

And Russia remained, and there were continuities from one to the other. And there were also new opportunities--opportunities to do more than sit on precious metals and shoot at passing strangers.

[hugolp]

And Russia remained, and there were continuities from one to the other. And there were also new opportunities--opportunities to do more than sit on precious metals and shoot at passing strangers.

I dont think nobody is predicting the extinction of the human race in the USA. Just a lot of dificulties.

Hugo

[enjerth]

I think that's both a good point and a simplistic view. You still can't get a thousand tons of coal from Utah to New Hampshire overnight. Even a house of cards comes down in stages, as a general rule.

Obviously, what I was talking about is limited to the scope of information.

Very few are privileged with the knowledge of what is truly happening. It will likely remain hidden, and the general public will be completely unaware, until one morning they awake to find the country in total ruin.

That's the way it's headed. TPTB will prop it all up until it all suddenly crashes.

[Rock Sexton]

Obviously, what I was talking about is limited to the scope of information.

Very few are privileged with the knowledge of what is truly happening. It will likely remain hidden, and the general public will be completely unaware, until one morning they awake to find the country in total ruin.

That's the way it's headed. TPTB will prop it all up until it all suddenly crashes.


This is what life has become. Those in the few will lead the many to the slaughter because they put on the everything's fine face.

[hugolp]

So anyone thinks that the USA economy is hours/days from the collapse like Denninger? I mean, its quite a stament.

Hugo

[torchbearer]

So anyone thinks that the USA economy is hours/days from the collapse like Denninger? I mean, its quite a stament.

Hugo

I don't think its that close.
Maybe within 5 years....
However long it takes for all the reserves to get onto mainstreet.

[moostraks]

So anyone thinks that the USA economy is hours/days from the collapse like Denninger? I mean, its quite a stament.

Hugo

Not hours/days but we are sitting on a time bomb. I have been trying to get folks to understand what GM will do to the PBGC for some time now. I think that GM is being used as the means to garner cooperation for tptb's agenda, whatever that may be now (ie Amero, regionalization, or straight globalization). When GM goes down (which I think will happen) this will cause a tsunami wave of unemployment defaults on loans. This has been trickling but the floodgates will open when (or if) GM folds up.

Glad to see Denninger has come out about the PBGC. Most folks hear msm chat about how legacy costs are destroying GM so they have sided with GM letting go of those obligations to save itself, without realizing they are guaranteed by the PBGC so the pain will just be deferred while GM skates on something they obligated their corporation to pay. Then GM retirees will overwhelm the already almost bankrupt PBGC program and then what?!? Just keep those printing presses running...

[enjerth]

So anyone thinks that the USA economy is hours/days from the collapse like Denninger? I mean, its quite a stament.

Hugo

I don't think he spelled out collapse, but he did say something major would happen.

It looks like most of the optimists in the market have been wiped out. I think we could suffer a serious blow any day now. Although it probably won't be anywhere close to rock bottom yet for quite some time.

[Rock Sexton]

not hours/days but we are sitting on a time bomb. I have been trying to get folks to understand what gm will do to the pbgc for some time now. I think that gm is being used as the means to garner cooperation for tptb's agenda, whatever that may be now (ie amero, regionalization, or straight globalization). When gm goes down (which i think will happen) this will cause a tsunami wave of unemployment defaults on loans. This has been trickling but the floodgates will open when (or if) gm folds up.

Glad to see denninger has come out about the pbgc. Most folks hear msm chat about how legacy costs are destroying gm so they have sided with gm letting go of those obligations to save itself, without realizing they are guaranteed by the pbgc so the pain will just be deferred while gm skates on something they obligated their corporation to pay. Then gm retirees will overwhelm the already almost bankrupt pbgc program and then what?!? Just keep those printing presses running...

pbgc=?

[enjerth]

I should clarify. He is calling it a collapse.

I just don't see it as THE collapse, as there will be more to follow. Until we hit rock bottom, we aren't there yet.

[moostraks]

pbgc=?

http://www.pbgc.gov/
"PBGC is a federal corporation created by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974. " Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

[weslinder]

I read this today, and sent it around, but I realized what I think is the fatal flaw in his analysis that changes if from Mad Max collapse to just really bad. He expects a contraction of the money supply based off of really high T-Bill rates. I expect those really high T-Bill rates (After all, China only has so much to lend. At some point, even our threatening to let AIG fail isn't going to keep them buying T-Bills.), but I don't think the Fed/Treas will let that stop them from printing money. They have proven before that they will debase the currency to meet government obligations. If they half the value of a dollar, all of the sudden $2000/month SS payments, $50,000 soldier salaries, and $100,000 NHS doctor salaries become a lot easier to pay. The Fed/Treas can to this within 2-3 years in a reasonably controlled manner. We get to really high inflation. Not Weimar Republic hyperinflation, but 30-40%.

It'll get nasty. It will erase half or more of our standard of living. It will bring the US down to say Greece's or Spain's current level, but the system will stay in tact.

[Danke]

pbgc=?

http://www.pbgc.gov/

[hugolp]

It will bring the US down to say Greece's or Spain's current level, but the system will stay in tact.

Yes, but we have "paella" and "sangria", and you dont... :p

Hugo

[torchbearer]

Yes, but we have "paella" and "sangria", and you dont... :p

Hugo

I hear the Basque are doing better than the rest of spain economically. Is this true?

[hugolp]

I hear the Basque are doing better than the rest of spain economically. Is this true?

Specially at the beggining. It took a bit for them to start suffering, but now things are bad there as well. Basque country is one of the most industrialized parts of Spain.

But obviously the south of Spain is the part wich is being hit harder. Cadiz, one of the 4 or 5 more important cities in the south has 50% unemployment.

Hugo

[weslinder]

Yes, but we have "paella" and "sangria", and you dont... :p

Hugo

I live in Texas. We have sangria. No paella, but we do have Jambalaya.

[torchbearer]

we do have Jambalaya.


Thank those migrant cajuns from louisiana.
though, i do not believe jambalaya is spanish in origin.

[JordanL]

It's ridiculous that we're down 4% today, and over 7% for the week, and people are saying "we might have a bad day soon".

[newexitstrategy]

I hate to be polling for advice on my first post here (something I seldom do in any venue), but I'm put in a quandary by Denninger's remarks in specific regard to annuities. For the past few months I have been focused on preserving capital in what is left of my 201K at the expense of frequent review of my other investments (a well-diversified basket that nearly always outperforms the market indices by a healthy margin). A substantial chunk of my inheritance has been in one of Nationwide's Best of America variable annuities since 1996. How worried should I be about this "going to zero" over the very short term? Worried enough to consider a complete cash out (income tax hit in the top bracket)? Or just something to keep a fairly close eye on, with probable time to act before this investment vehicle goes straight to Hell? Thanks much!