DOW watch thread March 5th 2009

[LiveToWin]

DOW futures at |6750.0 -80.00|

[LiveFree79]

up another 100 points easily.

[JordanL]

I'm predicting a sharp drop.

-Profit taking
-Cautionary words from the Fed (warning that the recession is infecting more of the economy)
-The jobloss number will really sink in

[angelatc]

Health care summit today. I heard the word "control costs" on NPR. Bye bye health care sector.

[Sarge]

Feb. retail sales fells. Just coming out. Not as bad as January but still falling.

Waiting to hear the percent they fell.

[Sandra]

February is a big seller for agricultural products, I expect those will be higher this year. A jump in some some retail categories will often display the public fears and preparedness. Big sales in small farming stuff, fabric and sewing machines, cookware, and home entertainment (board games, DVD's, sports equipment) are indicators of home based sustenance.

[ArchPaul]

Jobless claims today.

[Sandra]

-126.82

[Sandra]

Forum clock is off.

[Original_Intent]

down 300+ today.

[Sarge]

Factory orders down in Jan.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2009/02/23/daily47.html

[ArchPaul]

For the week ended Feb. 28, 639,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims, down 31,000 from the 670,000 claims reported the previous week. (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/05/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm?postversion=2009030508)


MSM trying to spin it cause its better than expected... but the numbers will most likely be revised higher.

[Agent CSL]

I see it being up today. People think we've reached the bottom so we might just see today and tomorrow end positive after fluctuating up and down.

[acptulsa]

For the week ended Feb. 28, 639,000 Americans filed initial jobless claims, down 31,000 from the 670,000 claims reported the previous week. (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/05/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm?postversion=2009030508)


MSM trying to spin it cause its better than expected... but the numbers will most likely be revised higher.

Actually, the jobless numbers are higher and they said as much--just not in so many words. Less first time jobless claims than the previous month. Well, isn't that nice and encouraging? Now, tell us how many of those January first-time filers have since found jobs! None? Well, not so encouraging as we thought...

When the unemployment rate hits 100% the first time filings will fall to zero percent. Which number do you think the bobbleheads would report then, if they still had jobs?

Of course, the government would never say 100% even if it were true, because the way they cook their books 100 can never be achieved. After all, if you've been off work more than six months you're no longer unemployed!

[ghengis86]

we apologize for the delay yesterday, but we now return you to your regularly scheduled meltdown...

[ArchPaul]

Actually, the jobless numbers are higher and they said as much--just not in so many words. Less first time jobless claims than the previous month. Well, isn't that nice and encouraging? Now, tell us how many of those January first-time filers have since found jobs! None? Well, not so encouraging as we thought...

When the unemployment rate hits 100% the first time filings will fall to zero percent. Which number do you think the bobbleheads would report then, if they still had jobs?

Of course, the government would never say 100% even if it were true, because the way they cook their books 100 can never be achieved. After all, if you've been off work more than six months you're no longer unemployed!

LOL, yeah they'll make SOMETHING up to make you feel better about being in the soup line.. if there is one!
I thought for sure my job was a gonner last night. An email went out that one section is cutting 50%! Those being cut will have a job till July 1st... But the hammer can come down anytime. :(

[ryanduff]

Its gonna get a lot worse... Dow was already within 12 points of touching Tuesday's lows... Just wait until this afternoon...

People were calling for support in the somewhere in the 6000's... we might just blow past that and be in the 5000s by the end of the month.

[Sarge]

I agree it is going to get worse. Read these,

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/03/02/daily84.html

http://apnews.excite.com/article/20090305/D96NUOG03.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aT4PzNc1EgrU&refer=home

I don't see how one of these doesn't blow up, let alone a EU blow up somewhere before long.

[Sandra]

I'm betting it hits a 52 wk low.

[ryanduff]

I'm betting it hits a 52 wk low.

Just did... and an instant 40+ point selloff... still dropping straight down like a rock.

[LiveToWin]

-209.87 as of 11:21am EST

[Sandra]

6,660.63 !!!!

[MrNick]

6500 this week?

[Crash Martinez]

6595.75 would be 50% of the 52 week high! The DOW's only 60 points above that right now!

[LibertyEagle]

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png?963680

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_home.gif?random=0.909271240234375

[Agent CSL]

Note to self: My predictions suck. Don't invest.

[Bruno]

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png?963680

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_home.gif?random=0.909271240234375

Its about time those two charts followed logic again

[ItsTime]

That rally didnt last long. Its a good time to buy! :rolleyes:

[acptulsa]

Its about time those two charts followed logic again

Not for a year. Then the shakedown is over, people will have a handle on what companies will go under and what will survive, and we correct. But we're within two months of the floor, I think. Where it will be I have no idea.

[Feenix566]

Everybody knows that Citibank and BofA are going to fail eventually, one way or another. Obama and Geitner can only prop them up for so long. The poop's gonna have to hit the fan eventually. It's inevitable. And no one wants to be cought standing behind the fan when that happens. That's why the markets continue to tank.

There's plenty of investment capital out there, sitting in people's savings accounts, waiting to come back into the market. But it's not going to come back until the fallout from all this is over. No one's going to invest in this kind of market.

The ONLY way for the economy to re-stabilize is for Obama and Geitner to let the banks fail.

[acptulsa]

No one's going to invest in this kind of market. The ONLY way for the economy to re-stabilize is for Obama and Geitner to let the banks fail.

There will be investment. There are bargains on companies that can and very likely will survive, and they will be snapped up. But, no, there will not be major and market-wide investment without reservations until the shake-out is permitted.

[newbitech]

GM, FORD, Crystler, CITI, China -330

[Sandra]

-6,646.53

[acptulsa]

Sneer at these bargains all you want, guys. But for those people who have 401k accounts with no Kitco-type options, stocks sure look better in the medium term than cds, cash funds, bond funds or any other FRN-based crap.

Have we lost all faith in free enterprise?

[Rock Sexton]

Sneer at these bargains all you want, guys. But for those people who have 401k accounts with no Kitco-type options, stocks sure look better in the medium term than cds, cash funds, bond funds or any other FRN-based crap.

Have we lost all faith in free enterprise?

We've lost faith in Darth Obama who presides over it.

[reduen]

Dow 6600, S&P 680, where do we go from here...? It has to make a rebound soon , right..?

[ghengis86]

We've lost faith in Darth Obama who presides over it.

who had faith in him to begin with?

-219 at the moment

[Original_Intent]

As the day wears on I expect more and more "votes" for the bottom three options to trickle in. :(

[newbitech]

Dow 6600, S&P 680, where do we go from here...? It has to make a rebound soon , right..?

technically, there will be some bounces up in the short term (not today or tomorrow), however the long term trend is much lower, and the long term technicals have the dow somewhere between 3000-5000 and S&P between 300-400.

We might see a "bottom" late 2010, not this year though. Technically the bottom can be a complete collapse of the United States of America. Meaning the market as we know it could completely disappear.

[cradle2graveconservative]

Edit

[tremendoustie]

Sneer at these bargains all you want, guys. But for those people who have 401k accounts with no Kitco-type options, stocks sure look better in the medium term than cds, cash funds, bond funds or any other FRN-based crap.

Have we lost all faith in free enterprise?

Free enterprise sounds great! Tell me were you found it, so I can put my money there right away.

[Crash Martinez]

-195

little bouncy...

[ghengis86]

He finds your lack of faith, disturbing...

-208.68

fucking invisible hand job

[reduen]

technically, there will be some bounces up in the short term (not today or tomorrow), however the long term trend is much lower, and the long term technicals have the dow somewhere between 3000-5000 and S&P between 300-400.

We might see a "bottom" late 2010, not this year though. Technically the bottom can be a complete collapse of the United States of America. Meaning the market as we know it could completely disappear.

DOW 4000, S&P 350...? What are you smokin and how do I get some.? lol

[ihsv]

Dismal unemployment numbers tomorrow will cause the market to skyrocket.

And so the pig predicts.

[brandon]

Good thing I bought SLV at 12.25 two days ago.

[acptulsa]

Technically the bottom can be a complete collapse of the United States of America. Meaning the market as we know it could completely disappear.

Even if this is the true answer, remember this: Rome wasn't built in a day. It didn't burn in a day, either.

[ihsv]

Looks like it's more or less settling at the 6650 level

[LiveToWin]

Even if this is the true answer, remember this: Rome wasn't built in a day. It didn't burn in a day, either.

Actually, I doubt it took longer than 24 hours for the gauls to burn Rome when they sacked it ;)

Good thing no one "invaded" our government :rolleyes:

[Sandra]

-6,620.73

[LiveToWin]

-251.21

[LiveToWin]

I dont see any dead cats walking into the market today, going to be a long 2 hours.


Though we may get to see the PPT do their thing in the last half hour.

[Sandra]

:rolleyes:-6,615.63 Tanking quickly now. C'mon PPT!

[acptulsa]

Actually, I doubt it took longer than 24 hours for the gauls to burn Rome when they sacked it ;)

I disagree. Hell, San Francisco took a lot longer than one day to burn in 1906. But more to the point, some Roman institutions did last for some time after.

In any case, I think you understand my point. People are going to be working very hard to save what we have and rebuild early, even as the government's incompetent shysters are still destroying it.

I don't know what the future's about to bring us. But a lot of people thought the system was irreparable in 1930, too...

[ihsv]

Gettin' close to the 6600 mark

[tremendoustie]

I disagree. Hell, San Francisco took a lot longer than one day to burn in 1906. But more to the point, some Roman institutions did last for some time after.

In any case, I think you understand my point. People are going to be working very hard to save what we have and rebuild early, even as the government's incompetent shysters are still destroying it.

I don't know what the future's about to bring us. But a lot of people thought the system was irrepairable in 1930, too...

It's reparable, but it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And right now, the government's making it much worse.

[acptulsa]

It's reparable, but it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And right now, the government's making it much worse.

Agreed. :mad: I don't know how much faith to have. But I can tell you that this nation doesn't just have problems, it has quite a lot going for it as well. And I can tell you that if, as the dust settles, we are standing around going 'gee those jackasses made a hell of a mess' instead of the settling dust revealing us already rebuilding in good faith, we won't emerge as the new leaders.

[Crash Martinez]

Gettin' close to the 6600 mark

Guess they couldn't have that.

[Bruno]

gold +22.90

[LiveToWin]

I think its going to close in the 6500's

[ihsv]

3:00 bounce?

[Rock Sexton]

3:00 bounce?

It's almost expected. What a joke. It's just pure coincidence that everyday around 3pm the market spikes a little bit right? lol

[Sarge]

Two hints today that the job numbers are going to be bad. Earlier a Fed member indicated that and now a news blurb that the White House expects bad numbers.

Any guess that they already know the number?

[tmosley]

It's almost expected. What a joke. It's just pure coincidence that everyday around 3pm the market spikes a little bit right? lol

Except that it doesn't happen every day. Hell, every time I see that question asked, it doesn't happen at all.

[acptulsa]

The arrogance of these guys in the PPT is almost comical. Sure, they could keep the market from going too low before the election. But what are they accomplishing now, other than delaying the recovery? What do they think they're pulling off, besides running up the debt? Have they lost their minds to still be trying to sink this styrofoam?

And of course they do, Sarge. They're cooking those numbers even as we speak.

[MrNick]

Obama will buy stocks for the government and the market will go back to 10,000....

He's already talking about the government buying stocks. What a joke.

[Crash Martinez]

6595.75 would be 50% of the 52 week high! The DOW's only 60 points above that right now!

We're here!

[Crash Martinez]

6581
-294

[Sandra]

-6,557.17

[ghengis86]

-315 Shit!

invisible hand where are you!!!!!

[Sarge]

I know they know the number. The more they fudge it the worse it gets.

Broke 6600 and if we break 6500 or 6400 it is going to be free fall.

Don't catch a falling knife. They have three attempts to bring it up which have failed today.

Even this late attempt is not working as it is now going back down.

[ghengis86]

-330

[Sandra]

Fed wants news reports as less that -300 for sure.

[Crash Martinez]

heck of a volume at the end of the day!!

[Rock Sexton]

heck of a volume at the end of the day!!

Nothin' fishy about that at all. Nope. None.

[Crash Martinez]

Drops 281 points to close at 6594.44, with intraday marks as low as 6546!!

[acptulsa]

Drops 281 points to close at 6594.44, with intraday marks as low as 6546!!

And the S&P finishes below 700 and the NASDAQ below 1300. They're 0 for 3!

[ArchPaul]

wow, all that volume and it didn't break either way... a real tug of war!

[ihsv]

Last time bad unemployment data came up, the markets went up. Wonder if that'll happen tomorrow.

[tremendoustie]

I do think the PPT exists, but I don't think they're involved in everyday market manipulation, as some here seem to. It's not manipulation every time the DOW bounces, or gold dips, it's just the way markets behave.

[Original_Intent]

I do think the PPT exists, but I don't think they're involved in everyday market manipulation, as some here seem to. It's not manipulation every time the DOW bounces, or gold dips, it's just the way markets behave.

I agree, it is awful hard to differentiate between bargain hunters and the PPT.

I don't think they fiddle every day either, but there are some days that are pretty clear manipulation <IMHO>

[JordanL]

People keep saying "if we break X, we'll freefall".

People, we are in free fall.

We lost 4% today and over 7% on the week, and the week isn't over. That is free fall.

Citi is a penny-stock for Christ sake! The BOE is printing over 100B! China, Japan and Mexico are now dumping their dollars!

It's not like we're going to have a day where the market loses 90%... this is how market collapses work. We're cooked. 5-10% a week is HUGE.

[Original_Intent]

People keep saying "if we break X, we'll freefall".

People, we are in free fall.

We lost 4% today and over 7% on the week, and the week isn't over. That is free fall.

Citi is a penny-stock for Christ sake! The BOE is printing over 100B! China, Japan and Mexico are now dumping their dollars!

It's not like we're going to have a day where the market loses 90%... this is how market collapses work. We're cooked. 5-10% a week is HUGE.

I so agree with everything you posted here.

I can remember the "if we drop below 8K we are toast...." posts.

They were right. Today was a HUGE down day, we are just getting used to them.

Print out a DOW historical chart with MAX range. We are falling straight down.

[ItsTime]

So what do I win?

[Chieppa1]

$10

[JordanL]

I so agree with everything you posted here.

I can remember the "if we drop below 8K we are toast...." posts.

They were right. Today was a HUGE down day, we are just getting used to them.

Print out a DOW historical chart with MAX range. We are falling straight down.

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1236291154692&chddm=3976079&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0

Free fall people.

The American economy is done.

[Sarge]

You just think those number are free fall. If we break 6400 there is no support down to 5600 and from there down to 4600 and break that down to 3600 before strong support.

Figure those percents out.

[JordanL]

You just think those number are free fall. If we break 6400 there is no support down to 5600 and from there down to 4600 and break that down to 3600 before strong support.

Figure those percents out.

There is support at all levels.

There is an upward pressure at all levels because the vast majority of equities are held by large funds. This means that the funds themselves need to be leveraged, and take time to unwind. When they seek cash, they dump across broad markets and in large amounts, but to ensure they don't singlehandedly drive down the price of the stock they are selling, they sell it in little bunches.

Even if there is a downward collapse, most equities take time to be sold because who is holding them.

The large funds are liquidating right now, and have been for a while. They won't just DUMP their equities unless they get indication from Washington that DC will kill the equities market to save the bond market, and right now DC doesn't have to choose between the two.

[Sarge]

I agree there is support but,

There is a difference between support and strong support. There is not strong support until 3600.

[JordanL]

I agree there is support but,

There is a difference between support and strong support. There is not strong support until 3600.

I'm not sure how you could possibly make that assessment with any accuracy...

[MsDoodahs]

My God this is depressing.

:(

[Sarge]

Based on hours of research to figure out what is going on. You do a few hours and then explain otherwise.

[JordanL]

Based on hours of research to figure out what is going on. You do a few hours and then explain otherwise.

???

What research? What are your findings and what basis do they have?

Saying "hours of research" is completely meaningless.

[Sarge]

Sorry,

It is not meaningless. I am not asking you to take my word. If you disagree or make statements to the contrary, then it is up to you to dispute. I have done my homework and there is support out there if one takes the time to find out.

At this late hour, I am not going to spend a couple of more hours to back up what I have said.

Everyone thinks they are going to get answers on a silver platter without doing anything.

Take the time to check out if you are right, and say on what basis that I am out in left field.

I monitor a bunch of sites and news, and it is readily available for anyone that wants to take the time to confirm.

Just as a hint, try to google DOW support levels, and see what you see. Go a little further from what you find.