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View Full Version : Indicators of Massive financial Catastrophe.



MachM
02-02-2009, 09:27 AM
I was watching a TV program about Dinosaurs. The situation was just before the extinction of dinosaurs.

A massive Volcano was fuming in the background and Giant birds were flying. Suddenly there were many minor explosions all over the place & poisonous gas & steam started felling the giant birds.

Then a statement appeared "Giant Birds falling from the sky are indicators of approaching massive catastrophe". After sometime the "massive volcano" erupted and all the dinosaurs on land and sky were killed/extinct.

Now the "falling giant banks & giant companies" = "falling giant birds" and they indicators of approaching massive financial catastrophe which is further loss of $1200 Trillion to the world economy = Fuming Volcano

Too bad there is $1,400 Trillion of wealth left to evaporate and will probably only be about $200 Trillion at current values left when all is said and done.

The deflationary credit contraction begins

Germany has predicted that its economy will shrink by 2.25% in 2009, which would be its worst performance in the post-World War II era.

The downgraded forecast is much lower than the previous prediction of 0.2% growth, made in October. Germany's economy accounts for about a third of eurozone output. Germany is a export power-house for heavy industrial machinery. This means worldwide giant industries are shutting down

Goldman Sachs says "0% Interest rate is too high. A new analysis by Goldman Sachs (GS) concludes that the Federal Reserve's cut in the federal funds rate to a record low of zero to 0.25% on Dec. 16 isn't going to be nearly enough to get the economy going again. The report says the Fed would need to reduce the federal funds rate to negative 6% by the end of 2010 to supply the needed amount of monetary stimulus.

The problem: It's literally impossible to cut interest rates below zero. As a result, "we are entering a world with interest rates that are far too high for the economy's good," Goldman Chief U.S. Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a Jan. 16 research note.

All this means is that printing money is inevitable with all the consequences that brings. Once the USA and UK does it by the spring or summer the Dollar and Pound will be worth about the same as a baked bean and the country bankrupt.

Now the Poll question-: Are falling giant banks & giant companies indicators of approaching massive financial catastrophe?

Please vote for your opinion (see above)

Wickwire
02-02-2009, 10:12 AM
In a true free market, I'd say no. However, in this environment of government interference and control, I'd say yes.

MachM
02-02-2009, 11:11 AM
Reuters (UK)-: The Treasury bond "bubble" bursting slowly

The proximate cause for the selling in Treasuries stems from expectations that the government will need to borrow about $2 trillion of debt this year to finance its rescue packages for the battered banking sector. Already, outstanding Treasury debt stood at $5.5 trillion at the end of September.

With this in mind, investors are fleeing Treasuries. In fact, while the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI is down 7.5 percent so far this year, the 30-year Treasury bond is down even more at 10 percent. This is contrary to the usual dynamic, where Treasuries move in the opposite direction of stocks.

Over the last three weeks, investors have been selling U.S. Treasury bonds heavily, giving the 30-year Treasury bond's yield this week its biggest weekly jump since 2001, shortly after the September 11 attacks on the United States.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKTRE50N0GF20090124

jon_perez
02-02-2009, 11:11 AM
I find it disingenuous when even economically/financially knowledgeable people interviewed on TV or write articles find themselves sloppily using the phrase "wealth has been destroyed" or "wealth has evaporated". The financial collapse may eventually cause wealth to be destroyed but paper values shrinking IS MOST ABSOLUTELY NOT DISAPPEARING WEALTH, rather it is disappearing _money_. Money is NOT wealth, it is merely measuring units.

The measuring units are getting scarcer, but the tangible goods, services and resources that really count as wealth only really start to lessen if these lubricating/measuring units actually have an effect on the output of the former. Which they are starting to, actually... However, one must not conflate the two.

MachM
02-04-2009, 08:24 AM
As many as 51 million jobs worldwide could be lost this year because of the global economic crisis, says the International Labour Organization(ILO)

BBC report says 20 million "chinese migrants" are jobless. This means there must be 10 million additional unemployed residents in big cities of China.

China alone has 30 million unemployed people.

Indian Government sources say estimated 10 million jobs have been lost in Indian industries. I think true figures are 20 million to 30 million job losses.

Now there are 60 million unemployed people from 2.5 billion world population (China & India).

World population is 7 billion people.

The remaining 4.5 billion people are in Western countries, gulf/islamic countries, asia-pacific countries. these countries are the worst-hit by global economic crisis.

There must be 60 million to 100 million unemployed people in these countries (4.5 billion people).

The grand total for world unemployment comes to 100 million to 150 million.

ImpeachKingGeorgeII
02-04-2009, 08:48 AM
I find it disingenuous when even economically/financially knowledgeable people interviewed on TV or write articles find themselves sloppily using the phrase "wealth has been destroyed" or "wealth has evaporated". The financial collapse may eventually cause wealth to be destroyed but paper values shrinking IS MOST ABSOLUTELY NOT DISAPPEARING WEALTH, rather it is disappearing _money_. Money is NOT wealth, it is merely measuring units.

The measuring units are getting scarcer, but the tangible goods, services and resources that really count as wealth only really start to lessen if these lubricating/measuring units actually have an effect on the output of the former. Which they are starting to, actually... However, one must not conflate the two.

Money is not disappearing, cash is. If we had true money (e.g. gold & silver, or backed currencies) doesn't just disappear like cash has been. Cash doesn't fit the full definition of money.

jon_perez
02-09-2009, 01:02 AM
I find it disingenuous when even economically/financially knowledgeable people interviewed on TV or write articles find themselves sloppily using the phrase "wealth has been destroyed" or "wealth has evaporated". The financial collapse may eventually cause wealth to be destroyed but paper values shrinking IS MOST ABSOLUTELY NOT DISAPPEARING WEALTH, rather it is disappearing _money_. Money is NOT wealth, it is merely measuring units.

The measuring units are getting scarcer, but the tangible goods, services and resources that really count as wealth only really start to lessen if these lubricating/measuring units actually have an effect on the output of the former. Which they are starting to, actually... However, one must not conflate the two.I found this Youtube video of Alan Watts, "Abstraction and Reality" at 5:20 he speaks of The Great Depression,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKGO7dAIvQU&feature=related

and took the words out of my mouth.

jon_perez
02-09-2009, 01:07 AM
Money is not disappearing, cash is. If we had true money (e.g. gold & silver, or backed currencies) doesn't just disappear like cash has been. Cash doesn't fit the full definition of money.Cash isn't disappearing either... the Fed is creating lots of it.

It's just not circulating, which is why it seems like its disappearing. Banks are hoarding cash. It would be no different if money were gold or silver, in the current climate, it would stay within banks who would refuse to lend it out.

Actually, if you ask the more sophisticated people, it's a *credit* bubble that has popped. People mistook access to credit as money for the longest time and now reality has reasserted itself and the false money (credit) is now disappearing. The Fed is busy printing money to somehow offset the disappearing credit because we are all so used to its existence.

We're not even talking about "unreal" fiat money here, but overextended credit created willy-nilly which is even more abstract than fiat money.

Of course the fear now is that in the process of manufacturing extra fiat money to offset the fizzled credit bubble, the Fed will dilute the value of that money. Those who don't want to take the pain of credit disappearing, advocate a "cure" which is to reconjure what disappeared in the form of more (and also more diluted) money.

It wasn't exactly more money supply that fueled inflation of the last few years, but rather recklessly expanded credit. See http://market-ticker.denninger.net , he puts it quite eloquently, and I had also suspected something similar early on and have posted some stuff to that effect here on RPF.

JordanL
02-09-2009, 01:51 AM
in Western countries, gulf/islamic countries, asia-pacific countries. these countries are the worst-hit by global economic crisis.

You hear that everyone? There are no people in Africa! :p