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View Full Version : Draft someone in NY-20




nate895
01-23-2009, 09:35 PM
Since Congresswoman Gillibrand will be retiring to take her seat in the Senate in this conservative district, we need to put someone up to take the seat. I think it is possible for an RP Republican to win the seat if we get them enough money and they are a respectable member of the community.

Austin
01-23-2009, 09:57 PM
Let's Keep bumping this thread. If there is someone in NY-20 willing to run, please let us know!

http://www.unityparty.us/NY20_109.gif

nate895
01-23-2009, 09:58 PM
Let's Keep bumping this thread. If there is someone in NY-20 willing to run, please let us know!

http://www.unityparty.us/NY20_109.gif

There has to be somebody in that area who is willing to run and is respected in the community.

Austin
01-23-2009, 10:01 PM
http://conservative.meetup.com/155/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district

Austin
01-23-2009, 10:07 PM
Big possibility here!

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/user/Steven_Vasquez/

He ran in the 21st district in the 2008 election, and got 30% of the vote. He now resides in the 20th district. How long must a representative live in the district to be eligible?

nate895
01-23-2009, 10:09 PM
Big possibility here!

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/user/Steven_Vasquez/

He ran in the 21st district in the 2008 election, and got 30% of the vote. He now resides in the 20th district. How long must a representative live in the district to be eligible?

Long enough to be able to vote in the district. Interesting choice, if we could get him the money, he could win.

Austin
01-23-2009, 10:14 PM
How exactly does the special election work in this case?

nate895
01-23-2009, 10:16 PM
How exactly does the special election work in this case?

The State government arranges for a special primary and a special election in quick succession. It will be difficult for all the candidates with the limited amount of time for fundraising and campaigning, so we need to get on it right away with money bombs and other grassroots activity.

brandon
01-23-2009, 10:20 PM
Big possibility here!

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/user/Steven_Vasquez/

He ran in the 21st district in the 2008 election, and got 30% of the vote. He now resides in the 20th district. How long must a representative live in the district to be eligible?

Good find! This could work out really well if he is interested in running.

Epic
01-23-2009, 10:35 PM
Special elections... turnout is generally LOW.

That is good. Activists can play a bigger role.

Gage
01-23-2009, 10:37 PM
Someone contact this guy. He could have a very good chance of winning!

nate895
01-23-2009, 10:37 PM
Special elections... turnout is generally LOW.

That is good. Activists can play a bigger role.

Yes, and voter turnout machines are all-important. That is the single most important aspect of almost any special election. All you need to do is identify as many of your voters as possible and get them to the polls. That is primary to advertising, which is secondary, but still a priority.

Austin
01-23-2009, 11:12 PM
Who wants to be the first to ask him? :D

blocks
01-23-2009, 11:45 PM
According to his C4L profile, he ran for 21st district seat just this past cycle in 2008. Anyone know the requirements for residence? Because that would mean he's only been in NY-20 for 2 1/2 months max.

Edit: According to the New York's State Board of Elections, the top three vote-getters in the 2008 race for the 21st district seat were:

Paul Tonko 105,313 61.8
Jim Burhmaster 57,086 35.4
Philip Steck 5,025 2.8
(http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/elections/2008/General/USCongress08.pdf)

No Vasquez anywhere.

So his C4L profile is at least very misleading.

nate895
01-24-2009, 12:00 AM
According to his C4L profile, he ran for 21st district seat just this past cycle in 2008. Anyone know the requirements for residence? Because that would mean he's only been in NY-20 for 2 1/2 months max.

Edit: According to the New York's State Board of Elections, the top three vote-getters in the 2008 race for the 21st district seat were:

Paul Tonko 105,313 61.8
Jim Burhmaster 57,086 35.4
Philip Steck 5,025 2.8
(http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/elections/2008/General/USCongress08.pdf)

No Vasquez anywhere.

So his C4L profile is at least very misleading.

He ran in the GOP Primary, he was not in the General. 2.5 months is enough, you need thirty days residence to register, and if you are registered, you can run for any office you are otherwise qualified for.

blocks
01-24-2009, 12:09 AM
He ran in the GOP Primary, he was not in the General. 2.5 months is enough, you need thirty days residence to register, and if you are registered, you can run for any office you are otherwise qualified for.

Oh Okay. Cool. I say draft him!

ronpaulhawaii
01-24-2009, 11:11 AM
I'm (temporarily) on the edge of that district. I've met Steve and hope he goes for it. I'm pretty sure he is a member here and sent a link to this thread via CfL, ...

AJ Antimony
01-24-2009, 12:46 PM
If it's a conservative district, then a Republican should have little trouble beating a Democrat.

The real battle will occur in the Primary. We may not have won any Generals in 2008, but we won a fair share of Primaries.

SaratogaForRonPaul
01-24-2009, 04:43 PM
Hello Everyone, I am Steven Vasquez. I am the Ron Paul endorsed Republican candidate who ran in NY 21st District, and I am now the Interim State Coordinator for Campaign for Liberty. First I wanted to clear up something from a previous post. I live in the 20th district, right on the border with the 21st. I ran in the 21st because the Constitution is very clear of its requirements for Congressman, being age and resident of the state, it does not state that it needs to be a resident of the district. Also, as someone indicated, I did not win the GOP primary, as my opponent spent over $200,000 to my $12,000 but I still received half his votes with only a single mailing.

So let me give you what I currently understand of the situation in the 20th district (which may change as I discover more facts from the NY Board of Elections ). From what I hear from reliable sources, once the Governor announces a Special Election, the whole process can take place in less than 40 days total. Apparently (and this is what needs to be checked in NY laws), the Republican and Democrat candidates are chosen by the county party chairs without a primary. There is already a circus of candidates vying for the positions. They are insiders including Faso who ran for Governor, Tedisco who is a well known NY legislator, and Treadwell who spent over $5 million of his own money and lost to Gillibrand, as well as several other NY assemblymen. If the Republican candidate is only chosen by the county GOP chairs, they would certainly choose Treadwell. There may be an option for a 3rd party candidate, who unlike the Republican or Democrat candidates would probably have to get 3,500 signatures within a very condensed time period (a very difficult task). Again, these are the unknowns which should be clarified early next week.

Here are some things to consider about running in the 20th:

*The 2008 20th district election was one of the most expensive in the country and of all time (each candidate spending over $5 million).
*The 20th is one of the most gerrymandered districts in NY. Looking at the map posted above, it goes nearly to Canada and circles around the 20th district. There are 3-4 media markets versus the single media market in the 21st.
*The Democrats just obtained the majority in both houses in the NY State Legislature. In 2010, after the Census, NY will lose 1 district, and it is expected that the 20th district will be the one that will be split to give the Democrats the advantage.
*Treadwell already has a full campaign machine in position with offices throughout the (large) district and millions of his own money to put in. He already has TV ads, campaign materials, etc, ready to go.

Some interesting positives:
*It is unlikely a Democrat candidate will win. Gillibrand was considered more Republican than Treadwell (voted against the bailout twice, 100% NRA rank, etc). It is unlikely the Democrats will find a popular candidate like Gillibrand that will appeal to the Republican majority in the 20th district. However, the district may be on an anti-Bush/Obama-high and may choose to vote Democrat, no matter who is running. I doubt it though.
*Treadwell went negative against Gillibrand during the race, and it backfired on him. He got "trounced" for the amount of money he spent and only received about 38% of the vote. According to many fellow Republican colleagues (not necessarily Ron Paul supporters), he appeared to be a big government GOP insider, i.e. more of the same.
*1/3 of the population of the 20th district is in Saratoga County, where I live.
*As indicated, turnout in a special election will be a fraction of a normal election (especially a Presidential election), so it will mostly be political insiders who will be voting. If a person can reach out to normal Republican and Independent voters (say 30,000), they can win.

The reality of the situation is that this is a Wildcard playoff and anyone can win, though it clearly would lean towards Treadwell. With enough resources (at least $150,000-$300,000) to reach out to the most likely voters, this can be overcome even if the other candidates spend millions on TV ads.

After finishing up my last campaign, I do not have any extra resources. I used up all the signs, literature, and what little cash was left etc., but had no debt as a good fiscal conservative. To run, I would need a small miracle to happen to raise the cash in time.

Are there any miracles out there?

For reference, here is my site when I ran in the 21st district.
http://www.stevenforcongress.com

nate895
01-24-2009, 05:00 PM
@Vasquez:

Unless New York is different, every special election for the House I have heard of includes a primary. If New York doesn't include one, that really sucks, but we should try to get you on as an Independent if there is no primary. If Treadwell is bad and nominated, and the Democrats nominate a liberal, you would have a great shot if you could get your message out there. You could then join the GOP caucus in the House, and become a Republican thereafter.

Austin
01-24-2009, 05:03 PM
How can we convince your county chair to elect you to represent the Republican Party?

nate895
01-24-2009, 05:04 PM
How can we convince your county chair to elect you to represent the Republican Party?

Unless Vasquez has information I don't know, I don't think that would be possible.

SaratogaForRonPaul
01-24-2009, 05:23 PM
Here is an article on the situation, which seems to confirm the lack of a primary and appointment by the county chairs of both parties. Since this is a very valuable seat for the GOP, they will likely be taking their orders from the national GOP. The people will not make the choice for candidates, the parties will.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/31683-1.html?page=2

Nathan Hale
01-24-2009, 09:00 PM
I also live in NY 20th, and I can confirm that as far as Congressional races go, this district is one of the least inviting. It's as expensive as a senate race and the district is gerrymandered all to shit. It's also a big money district for the GOP because it is usually so conservative. Before Gillibrand we had a GOP rising star for a long time who got swept away by the Democrat Revolution in 2006.

Should Treadwell run in the special election, and he likely shall, he's going to walk away with the seat - which sucks because he has a bottomless coffer with which to defend his seat in 2010. The good side is that Treadwell isn't young, and I am currently on a 10 year plan to run for Congress around 2018-2020. Go team!

Imperial
01-26-2009, 10:23 PM
I heard the LP State Chair is wanting to try to do a lightning blitz to get on ballot, although as a Libertarian in a special election that will be difficult.

nate895
01-26-2009, 10:36 PM
I heard the LP State Chair is wanting to try to do a lightning blitz to get on ballot, although as a Libertarian in a special election that will be difficult.

We can do it!!!!

David A. Gay, Sr.
01-26-2009, 11:32 PM
Eric sundwall for u.s. Congress 2009!

blocks
01-27-2009, 06:10 AM
Here is an article on the situation, which seems to confirm the lack of a primary and appointment by the county chairs of both parties. Since this is a very valuable seat for the GOP, they will likely be taking their orders from the national GOP. The people will not make the choice for candidates, the parties will.

God damn. As much as the idea of "democracy" is over blown, "kleptocracy" is the truth behind the puppet show.

werdd
01-27-2009, 06:44 AM
only communist can win in NY