Schiff should not run for senate in CT

[brandon]

There is virtually no chance he will win. It will be a giant distraction and a waste of money.


In the last US senate election in CT (2006), the Republican candidate only got 9.6% of the vote. Lieberman (I) split the other 90% of the vote with the Democrat challenger http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2006



In the 2004 Senate election, the Republican only got 33% of the vote.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Connecticut,_2004

[tajitj]

I think you underestimate the disaster this economy will be in 2010. Dodd is very responsible for Fannie and Freddies lack of oversite.

I would be glad to "waste" $50 watching Peter run against Dodd.

[AJ Antimony]

You're right. Not only is it another candidate running in the bluest of districts (states), this is a candidate that doesn't even have any plans on running.

You're totally right--donation money is so much better spent on winnable elections. Also, who knows if Peter would even run as a Republican. Surely there's a chance he might run Independent which would make the election even harder.

I too strongly recommend to donate money to candidates that actually have a shot at winning and who don't have the money to fund their own campaign.

[Imperial]

I figure there will be no better chance. Plus, the last election in CT for Senate was unique. Lieberman could claim lots of Republican votes there, where he is tolerable for many it seems. However, Dodd has gone way down in approval.

I think that the race is winnable with a bit of luck. After all, Jesse Ventura won the Minnesota governorship.

[freedominnumbers]

I second that. The last election should not be looked at at all for researching electability.
The Iraq War was still very popular amongst R,I and some D voters in CT and Lieberman was the pro war candidate. The war was THE issue that election.

The opposition, Ned Lamont was a very left leaning candidate who strongly polarized that race.
Also, the state R party threw the R candidate, who incidentally was an excellent candidate overall, under the bus and refused to support him in favor of Lieberman.

The next election for Lieberman's seat will also be extremely interesting as Lieberman is not fondly regarded by any segment of voters at this point. The pure voter numbers make the seat lean D but there is about 0 chance Lieberman will get the D nomination eliminating any incumbancy boost. An R candidate who is not polarizing for the Dems could easily get enough I and crossover D votes to win.

[thasre]

Why do people insist on pointing to the last 2 Senate elections? Here's a breakdown for you:

The Lieberman race was just fucked up generally.

The 33% against Dodd was actually impressive considering the guy running against him was a first-time office seeker (no prior political experience whatever) who was running against a popular incumbent in a Democratic-leaning state. Schiff would be a first-time office seeker who has had previous campaign experience, nation-wide media exposure, and grassroots support. He would be running against a now unpopular incumbent who is tainted by the Fannie/Freddie corruption. He could even potentially outspend Dodd. If a nobody can run againt Dodd and get 33%, Peter Schiff can do much, much better, I should think.

[AJ Antimony]

I figure there will be no better chance. Plus, the last election in CT for Senate was unique. Lieberman could claim lots of Republican votes there, where he is tolerable for many it seems. However, Dodd has gone way down in approval.

I think that the race is winnable with a bit of luck. After all, Jesse Ventura won the Minnesota governorship.

The whole fuckin Congress was down to 9% approval and almost all of them got re-elected! Bush had the worst approval ever and won two terms!

Maybe it's time to start supporting Republicans IN REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS

[AJ Antimony]

Why do people insist on pointing to the last 2 Senate elections? Here's a breakdown for you:

The Lieberman race was just fucked up generally.

The 33% against Dodd was actually impressive considering the guy running against him was a first-time office seeker (no prior political experience whatever) who was running against a popular incumbent in a Democratic-leaning state. Schiff would be a first-time office seeker who has had previous campaign experience, nation-wide media exposure, and grassroots support. He would be running against a now unpopular incumbent who is tainted by the Fannie/Freddie corruption. He could even potentially outspend Dodd. If a nobody can run againt Dodd and get 33%, Peter Schiff can do much, much better, I should think.

Didn't they say the EXACT SAME shit about BJ Lawson's chances

[brandon]

I agree with AJ.

It's simply not a winnable race. Alot of people in this "movement" tend to cling on to delusional fairy tales. They did it with Lawson, Sabrin, Paul, etc. I mean, it's totally fine to be optimistic and not give up even when you are the underdog. But you also have to be realistic and chose your battles carefully when the resources available to fight with are rather scarce. There is no way in hell Schiff will come even close to winning the general election for US senate in CT, and frankly, I would be shocked if he could even win the primary.

[raystone]

Good dose of reality.

Many of us still underestimate the idiocy of the vast majority of voters. And we overestimate the ability for the message from a good candidate to reach them, physically or psychologically.

[Imperial]

The whole fuckin Congress was down to 9% approval and almost all of them got re-elected! Bush had the worst approval ever and won two terms!

Maybe it's time to start supporting Republicans IN REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS

The entire country doesn't vote in yes or no to the entire Congress. The same polling also showed that in individual districts incumbents typically had over 50% support. What does this show? People support their own candidate typically while deriding the others. However, Dodd himself in CT is under 50% approval.


I see it as we will never be able to win without running. Local races are good, but people don't really see the visibility so much. Also, fighting up ticket brings supporters further down.

[nate895]

Didn't they say the EXACT SAME shit about BJ Lawson's chances

David Price is not as corrupt, nor does he have the exposure of Dodd. Dodd is visible, a fmr. Presidential contender, and unpopular, unlike Price, who was very popular in his own district. This race is winnable on the margins, but it would surely be difficult. If there is any RP Republican that could do it, it is Peter Schiff.

At the same time, if Peter Schiff didn't run, it would be damn near impossible for any other RP Republican to win the seat. I think we should focus on five Senate seats in 2010, and if Schiff runs, we should add this to the list, making six, since Schiff himself will be able to fund much of his efforts.