Rael
12-21-2008, 10:32 PM
By NAFTALI BENDAVID
WASHINGTON -- Even as they depict a massive stimulus package as indispensable to turning the economy around, U.S. Democratic leaders are aggressively lowering expectations that the package will yield dramatic accomplishments quickly.
Rep. David Obey, who is playing a key role in assembling the stimulus plan, which is expected to approach $800 billion, said recently that an infusion of federal spending is "the only game in town." But the Wisconsin Democrat, who is chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, was careful to add: "The downward momentum appears too strong to end the recession anytime soon."
[Democrats Try to Lower Expectations]
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office said recently that "Congress needs to pass an economic recovery package to prevent any further decline in the economy" -- but cautioned, "recovery will not be immediate."
The expectations game is always tricky in politics. To win power, candidates promise to enact sweeping change. But once victory is in hand, they often scramble to lower those expectations so they won't be perceived as falling short.
Democrats are facing an especially precarious version of that dilemma. In crafting a package that will sink hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars into the economy, they are apprehensive about the fallout if the economy merely continues sputtering along for several years.
And lawmakers are already mindful of how they will face voters less than two years from now. The ruling party almost always loses seats in midterm elections, and that trend could be exacerbated for the Democrats if voters think they threw billions of dollars at the economy with little to show for it.
"Elections are run in two-year cycles, and we're in an economic cycle that we can't turn around in two years," said Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D., N.Y.). "It's a political problem. But I don't know that there is a way out of it."
President-elect Barack Obama, asked how voters will be able to judge whether his economic package is helping, said it would create at least some jobs immediately by funding "shovel ready" construction projects. The Democrats could also get credit if they produce concrete results in areas such as providing mortgage relief or extending unemployment benefits.
Still, the political challenge is daunting, given that economists expect this recession to last for years. "The stimulus package will keep it from getting as bad as it would otherwise be, but that is very hard to measure," said Alice Rivlin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, who addressed House Democrats recently. "All you can say is, 'It's probably not as bad as it would have been.' But that is very hard to prove."
That is why Democrats are trying to lower expectations now. "The only way to deal with it is to be upfront and say, 'It's not salvation. It will limit the damage. What's been built up for years won't be solved overnight,' " Rep. Nadler said.
Congressional leaders, conferring with Mr. Obama's team, are pushing to have the stimulus plan ready by early January. They hope the new Congress will pass it by Jan. 20 so Mr. Obama can sign it quickly.
One aspect of the Democrats' strategy is to stress that the recession was the Bush administration's fault, not theirs. "President Bush will leave behind a legacy of debt, transforming the biggest surpluses in history into the biggest deficits and affecting our ability to confront the current economic crisis," Rep. Hoyer's office said recently.
Democrats also have begun speaking of the long term, emphasizing that their goal isn't merely to end the downturn but also to change society and strengthen the economy for generations.
That may be a difficult point to make politically. But Democrats hope that voters understand the severity of this recession and don't expect them to work miracles immediately.
They take some hope in that regard from the performance of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, to whom they are increasingly looking as a role model. Mr. Roosevelt didn't rapidly end the Great Depression, but voters supported him because he seemed to care so deeply, taking aggressive action and trying everything at his disposal.
"I think people know this is a serious recession, and they don't expect it to turn it around quickly," Ms. Rivlin said. The Democrats "don't have to produce a turnaround. But they have to produce action."
WASHINGTON -- Even as they depict a massive stimulus package as indispensable to turning the economy around, U.S. Democratic leaders are aggressively lowering expectations that the package will yield dramatic accomplishments quickly.
Rep. David Obey, who is playing a key role in assembling the stimulus plan, which is expected to approach $800 billion, said recently that an infusion of federal spending is "the only game in town." But the Wisconsin Democrat, who is chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, was careful to add: "The downward momentum appears too strong to end the recession anytime soon."
[Democrats Try to Lower Expectations]
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office said recently that "Congress needs to pass an economic recovery package to prevent any further decline in the economy" -- but cautioned, "recovery will not be immediate."
The expectations game is always tricky in politics. To win power, candidates promise to enact sweeping change. But once victory is in hand, they often scramble to lower those expectations so they won't be perceived as falling short.
Democrats are facing an especially precarious version of that dilemma. In crafting a package that will sink hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars into the economy, they are apprehensive about the fallout if the economy merely continues sputtering along for several years.
And lawmakers are already mindful of how they will face voters less than two years from now. The ruling party almost always loses seats in midterm elections, and that trend could be exacerbated for the Democrats if voters think they threw billions of dollars at the economy with little to show for it.
"Elections are run in two-year cycles, and we're in an economic cycle that we can't turn around in two years," said Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D., N.Y.). "It's a political problem. But I don't know that there is a way out of it."
President-elect Barack Obama, asked how voters will be able to judge whether his economic package is helping, said it would create at least some jobs immediately by funding "shovel ready" construction projects. The Democrats could also get credit if they produce concrete results in areas such as providing mortgage relief or extending unemployment benefits.
Still, the political challenge is daunting, given that economists expect this recession to last for years. "The stimulus package will keep it from getting as bad as it would otherwise be, but that is very hard to measure," said Alice Rivlin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, who addressed House Democrats recently. "All you can say is, 'It's probably not as bad as it would have been.' But that is very hard to prove."
That is why Democrats are trying to lower expectations now. "The only way to deal with it is to be upfront and say, 'It's not salvation. It will limit the damage. What's been built up for years won't be solved overnight,' " Rep. Nadler said.
Congressional leaders, conferring with Mr. Obama's team, are pushing to have the stimulus plan ready by early January. They hope the new Congress will pass it by Jan. 20 so Mr. Obama can sign it quickly.
One aspect of the Democrats' strategy is to stress that the recession was the Bush administration's fault, not theirs. "President Bush will leave behind a legacy of debt, transforming the biggest surpluses in history into the biggest deficits and affecting our ability to confront the current economic crisis," Rep. Hoyer's office said recently.
Democrats also have begun speaking of the long term, emphasizing that their goal isn't merely to end the downturn but also to change society and strengthen the economy for generations.
That may be a difficult point to make politically. But Democrats hope that voters understand the severity of this recession and don't expect them to work miracles immediately.
They take some hope in that regard from the performance of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, to whom they are increasingly looking as a role model. Mr. Roosevelt didn't rapidly end the Great Depression, but voters supported him because he seemed to care so deeply, taking aggressive action and trying everything at his disposal.
"I think people know this is a serious recession, and they don't expect it to turn it around quickly," Ms. Rivlin said. The Democrats "don't have to produce a turnaround. But they have to produce action."